SGOTM 21 - Phoenix Rising

Fippy · Mar 11, 2015

I made a quick test before going to bed, and seems we are over-reacting.
Screenie soon, i think i got defenses right.
Oops sorry for new post, was not needed.

Spoiler :

I added 500 culture, walls, forty, hill and so on. Not sure if i forgot any bonuses. Yep this would require shared general XP for strong enuf units. Something to work on if you keep thinking

Have fun with sports or sleep well otherwise!

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Nopes it's not secure wins, but very doable if we bring backups (we will still have some Swords and stuff). Need galleons added, most likely Amsterdam / Utrecht whip & forests, and we can bring quiet some numbers.

I think with 5mp galleons it's not like we would lose terrible amounts of time if he gets Feuda or Machinery while we move, some could turn around for Shaka, Willy's last city or other targets and ~2 could get us barb cities.
We should see what he teched soon without Espio, 200BC he had the same techs researchable so still busy on what he picked longer ago.

After thinking some time, there should be no mousetrap with cheese (nice one Izu

) at Lou.
We are never forced to attack, can load everything back on galleons even if we DoW and he upgrades on that turn.
At worst we lose ~3 turns before we land somewhere else.
And 3 trade routes until he calms down.

City & unit producing thoughts:
* Cabelas, more Maces (keep whipping at size 4, 2 farms now with Utrecht one)
* Surf, Mace whip next turn
* HF, could add another Mace if we double chop 2S with our galleon workers. For south galleon, cos of long north ways. Cat would be better thou, so maybe wealth until Construction?
* Corn, whips Mace and galleon 2 in Clams ships him
* Whale, hopefully peace with Shaka soon and then chop & whip something for south galleon if needed
* Amsterdam, galleon whip & Granary with chop
* Utrecht, 2 chops & 1 pop whip for 2nd new galleon if we can manage.

We have some flexibility with Amsterdam & Clams here to add last needed units cos of nice food and forests in Amsterdam.

= total 5 galleons, 4N 1S.
~9 maces, hopefully ~2 Cats added somewhere + ~4 backup units (Swords, general, maybe even 1 spear or chariot)

We would need a gather spot somewhere north for our Maces + general + bear or sword hero (depending on what we pick for free upgrade).
Worst case he takes 1 galleon backup unit spot, and we do that after landing and splitting our units in front of Paris on 2 different tiles.

Adding test game (BAT, sorry..), 2 Cats make fights against only Archers easy. (forgot Axe, but probably not that much stronger and only 1 currently)

Gumbolt · Mar 11, 2015

60% is not a guaranteed win. Especially with 6 defenders. We may well need 12 units to be sure. I would not risk an attack unless we can see what he has been researching. We need to spend some EP on French soon.

Suiciding 2 cats at Paris would help. Just make the odds better for all units. You would think he might go for music? Have we truly been watching his techs last few turns? 200bc is around the time most Ai go LB.

It's interesting how Jud has spread from Toku to Russia and further afield. Must be some islands between these AI.

Time wise you have to fear for some teams. Conquest on this map will take quite some effort. China could have 12-13 cities by time we attack. Mansa already has 11 cities. Toku and Cathy could well set up many island cities too. Given our likely chosen quests to win by domination will require a lot of units and micro. The teams who do less micro may well find themselves playing 200-250+ turns. Unless they plan to use AP and do very little warfare. The issue here is they would have to rely on a Ai to build the AP. 600H on AP this game is simply not viable. It's likely Mansa will end up building the Ap here. You would still need to capture it and keep it. At present Mansa would require 20-25 mace just to make headway.

Oh Bat has never worked for me.

BSPollux · Mar 12, 2015

Fippy said:
There's so much to do on this map.

Thanks, told you I tried to keep you busy all game long

Mao map for Mono shows Toku east..wait we also found 1 Cathy city, uploading.

You share maps with the AI but not with your lurkers?

Fippy · Mar 12, 2015

Everything for our lurkers, it's much thinking currently and i sometimes forget

Toku & Cathy

Spoiler :

Full Chinese map

Spoiler :

French units

Spoiler :

Izuul · Mar 12, 2015

We do need to account for the stack of crap units. I assume we want to avoid getting hit by it before we attack, so we would probably DoW and unload our units 1E of Paris on the hill. Lou would move his stack 2E towards Paris, but he can't get into the city without Engineering. He will whip a unit, probably an archer, so at this point it would be 5 + 1 axe but it's hard to say what he will have by then. We suicide the cats and then even if all units have an average of 66.7% chance to win it will take 9 of them to capture the city. Hopefully something like 6 maces and 3 backup units leaving 3 healthy maces that can still move. I don't know what our actual odds will be but if we were 54% in your test game without sacrificing 2 cats then i don't think it's too unrealistic to assume maces will be 2/3 to win.

Continuing with the above scenario we now have the option of moving 3 healthy maces into the hilled city of Paris to absorb the stack, but that's currently something like 2 swords, 3 axes, and 3 spears. Will the maces hold? Probably?

Tough to speculate now though because we are quite some ways off from actually attacking.

We wouldn't necessarily need to defend the city on the same turn we captured it, we would just need enough healthy units in there to make him lose most of his stack trying to retake it. Obviously holding the city and killing off his entire stack would be best, but if we did lose the city but kill off most of his units we could just recapture it the next turn. We would want to avoid him getting most or all of his stack back into Paris and getting the culture + hill bonus again.

Gumbolt · Mar 12, 2015

From my testing. I landed with 8 mace 2 swords and 2 pults. Attacked with 2 CR pults which both died. All the archers were reduced to 2.2str. I lost 1 mace to his axe. ideally we want a CR2 mace in stack or one with shock. The rest all won.

The big downside to plan is what units would be available to defend city after the attack. On test game 2 mace and 2 swords plus unit that took the city.

Now to test with LB. I fear the results would be we would not be able to defend against his follow up stack.
After pult attack most LB 4.9. One is 5.2. At odds of 30-50% I then won all combats.
Tried again and i lost 2 mace. First combat was 19%. Rest all 30% odds. Definately think 2 suicide pults work well.

Forgot to give the LB promos. Gave each CG1. On first attempt failed to take city. 5 of the melee units won. 5 lost. 2.2 LB left. He whipped an archer. Would probably have been a LB on live game.

So how long realistically are we away from an attack?
We currently have 5 mace of which one may die next turn. 4 in production. We lack 2 galleons. We lack 2 pults. Sure we can use GG on bearclaw or other warrior. So that is one more mace.

I anticipate at least 8-9 turns to round up all these new troops. Plus 5-6 turns of galleon moves. 15 turns and hope French have no feudalism. Big ask!!!

Feudalism would be a killer here. If we can attack pre LBS then odds are much better. The archers I used were not promoted. LB's were.

Would it be better to just wait for rifles and then invade the world? At present this will be a lot of units with a big risk factor.

Fippy · Mar 12, 2015

General Maces would be well above 80% chances after 2 Cats, Izu. Against normal archers.
Basically with construction we could force this even against longbows if we add some more units and esp. Cats. City Raider line then. Requires more whipping of units, but it's doable if we want.

Most likely some sacrifices in pop for those additional units would make sense, he does have loads of wonders + barb cities afterwards.
While not all wonders are useful, Pyras and Parthenon are huge.

I think going for Lizzy instead would be a mistake.

"at least 8-9 turns" for units, too long. 3 turns until Amsterdam and Utrecht are out of revolt and can take care of galleons or Cats, so approx 5-6 turns until we would start. I guess let's invest some beakers into Espio now, let me look how much..either 40% EP with having too many, or 30% and 5 points missing that we would hope we reach in few turns later and before we would start moving.

Pic for Lymo ~~ Hmm let me add us too..done! Yep i was lazy copying and did not try removing the background

Spoiler :

Izuul · Mar 12, 2015

I'm on board if we can make it work numbers wise. Would like a little bit of time to look at some things closer though.

We need to end this business with Willy and Shaka as soon as possible to free up those units too. It would also be nice if Lou would load some units up to settle another city or attack the barb cities. He has a settler in Orleans, but only 1 galley we can see, and there's obviously nowhere on his main land to settle.

Seeing his tech is worth the EP investment. That will save us a lot of wasted turns moving units on galleons just for him to get LBs by the time we get there.

Later breakouts like Rifles or Cannons are good for military victories when you don't need to tech past Rifling/Steel/etc, but they aren't good for a game where you need a lot of science - which we do here. We really need to capture stuff earlier here so that we get more payback from it. I can promise you the top teams won't be turtling on this map.

lymond · Mar 12, 2015

I agree that get Lou's stuff is better if we can pull it off. Not the warmest of fuzzies about it..you know the cheese and all

, but if we feel it is doable then sure. Cats will help. I just worry about bad results and then that Orleans stack doing a lot of damage. We probably just want to wipe him out completely or at least off the island, if he happens to get another city - otherwise the culture will be trouble. However, we may spread ourselves thin.

I guess we can plan on more reinforcements and setting up galleon chain.

I guess Cara1 can try to get back E to pick up GM..maybe chain over with one of the Galleons up there to get it to France before our attack.

No doubt we want this Shaka nonsense over asap. (Willie should open up any turn now) I think we are going to have to kill some Shaka units first. We might even consider taking Bula or razing it with some of the new Maces...get a little XP.

(I certainly don't favor waiting for Rifles..as My said, with GLH we want moar cities and Mids/Parth do us more favors the sooner we get them into our greedy fingers...muwahaha)

My, I expected a little picture of cheese and a mouse near Paris

perfect!

No probs with Theo from me

Fippy · Mar 12, 2015

If we agree on Lou, we need a decision for Lizzy techs then i could start making a plan.
I would lean towards gifting her Theo this turn, so we have Paper in our backhand next turn and can wait what happens.

No doubt we need Construction, one way or other.
We have screenies for his units, Gumbo

Okay for 40% Espio, then we can switch back to Lizzy (catching up).

Galleon chain should be fine if we need reinforcements after Paris, most important city anyways to get faster (Pyras, revolt timer for stone after Orleans culture gets removed). Lyons would be nice too, those are not hill cities and i am sure after Paris we could manage them somehow.
Including cease fire tricks.

Gumbolt · Mar 12, 2015

Parth is in Lyon.
Glib in paris.
Mids in Paris.

So we might need to wipe out French. Could we scout out Lyons defenders??
Let's put the makers up to show current defenders in each city.

Orleans should fall much quicker than Paris due to mainly melee units.

If Shaka talks we should just end war any way possible.

Let's do 40% espionage this turn and be sure. I allowed 9 turns for cities to grow to whip and a few turns for movement. No reason we can't load up 9 units asap and head them off now. Still a small risk Shaka might target HF instead of whale so let's be careful.

Fippy · Mar 12, 2015

Rough t110 plan..(maximum units)

Tech
Edu 60%, Espio on Lou 40%

Diplo & Trades
* Gift Lizzy Theo, 5/7
* Cancel cows for her, give gems for 2 or 3g/turn instead
* Mao seems to have no cows - get his sugar for them

Cities
* Palace, 1 more market turn, gives Crabs to Skagos
* Skagos, OF into galleon, whips next turn with borrowing Crabs (new idea)
Another south galleon, to pick up new Surf mace and extra units after we make peace with Shaka
* Surf, delays Mace whip if we approve that new plan, and adds Cat with OF if possible
* HF wealth wait for Construction
* Corn, whip Mace, work farms + 1 cottage
* Clam, wealth, wait what's needed later..Cat or galleon
* Whale, archer, whip next turn depending on Shaka
* Moby Dick, granary and switch to work boat before we might consider whipping later

Workers
* Gumbo + Izuul land 2S of HF for double chop (with wanting to return to whale after)
* worker 6 (Corn), 2n1e for chop
* Lymo, pre-chop somewhere..but not sure where yet cos of protection. Scout 2nw for ships near Amsterdam

Units
* Mace 7 (galleon) into Amsterdam (naval attack protection) or into Utrecht if Lymo finds out no ships near Amsterdam
* other maces, continue towards Cab
* Spear 2, promote c1 and move into Utrecht
* Sword 2 (hero, sorry forgot rename) promote CR and heal (warris heal / stay)
* Spear 1 (forest), promote c2 and move on worker stealing stack for chariot protection
* Sword 6 (forest), promote str. and protect Lymo chop
* Galleon 1 (whale), unload workers on HF forest, pick up new Mace
* Galleon 2 (clam) move to 2w1n of Corn for mace pickup
* other ships, move into our culture somewhere (no task currently, cept galleon unloading mace in amsterdam)
* General, towards Utrecht

No worries Izu, i will play much later. Just posting stuff as i get ideas.

Away for some time

Rather satisfied with most thingies in the plan, cept i cannot find a safe forest for Lymo after scouting for enemy ships.

lymond · Mar 12, 2015

green from me

I wonder if that new Galleon might get GM to France quicker as well..it could chain it over to other S Galleon and then to Cara1

Izuul · Mar 12, 2015

I don't have any time to look at things, but i trust you guys.

I remember towards the end of the last SGOTM we did some research into war score and what determined how soon an AI would talk. We might need to look into that again with Willy. We lost a lot of units attacking Utrecht + a couple at Amsterdam. I want to say offensive kills were worth 3pts, defensive kills were worth 2 pts, and capturing cities 10 pts, but that was a long time ago. I also don't remember how that was related to them talking. Part of that is just time, but i was thinking it was somehow tied in with the war success too.

Gumbolt · Mar 12, 2015

I also think southern route for GM works well too. Caro 1 can head SE.
Fingers crossed we get Aesth from Willem for peace.
Part of me thinks we should just get 9 mace sailing and decide if we should follow up with 2 pults. Tough call really.
Can we get QIDC 4 gold trade or are we waiting a turn?
Make sure which city corn worker is chopping into.
Trying to count number of units we have killed here. Losing count.
Is the forest 1NW safe? The impi can't pass over forest hills.
Explorer upgrade is far from ideal. Only way that might help if it defends instead of a mace or spear. A strength 1 scout will be last man standing. There is not much micro we can change there. The mace from HF will arrive soon. I still think small chance he may just head to HF anyway. Not sure if Izuul test included an undefended city.
Could risk 1W of Amsterdam. Would Dutch really land chariots?? To date he has shown no willingness to move units. He probably only has archers and 3 chariots now. Whatever you do with Lymo near border is a risk for sure. Cab forest is out of the way. Mace next turn could defend the worker. Guessing we want chops for galleons.
Yep a chariot would be a risk to worker.
We can still use scout this turn to block 1 of his attackers if we place on tundra. This way he can only attack with 4 units. Must increase odds on keeping city too. Scrap that he might use one of his distant impi. Hmmm. Pends how stupid the AI are.
The big problem here is I suspect it will take many turns to get Shaka to make peace. He will need to lose many units first. We only need to get him to talking point.

New stuff.

What promo?? Combat 2? Biggest threat is chariots.

Attack on Bul would be good. It will free up much culture pressure. We will need to wait for more forces first. Don't want to delay Paris attack either.

Did Willem have 2 galleys? As first one died attacking our unit.

Figured he might be heading to music. I do hope he does not trade it away too soon.

Yep Shaka is heading for HF. We need to be careful here. Have we a plan for this??

What does Willy offer? Aesth seems good. Nice tech to gift. Might also make Shaka feel less powerful fighting a war on his own.

How much are maps normally worth?? 200+? Will he ever get that amount of gold again soon?? Maybe accept.

Fippy · Mar 12, 2015

Not sure i understand your last sentence Gumbo, Lymo would be safe in Amsterdam sure..
but can we find a forest he can pre-chop.

Peace with Willy is not that urgent cos he's harmless and Aest trading that chance is gone for Lizzy, Shaka would be more important for planning.
Maybe after his attack on Whale (any plans on changing something there? Explorer upgrade costs 95g ugh).

Remember Shaka could have an Impi or Chariot from Bulawayo next turn, to pre-chop on roads we would need protection (or block).
Not that important, just would be nice for Amsterdam / Utrecht later when they are out of revolt.

I think no changes for whale should be best.

Fippy · Mar 12, 2015

Will play soon and report in this post.
(better idea for Lymo cos he scouts, forgot about that..sword 6 instead of going into Utrecht goes 2nw after promoting, and protects his chop there). Well we have no units close currently, can think about Bula soon thou. Yep str.

Mao has cows, oh well.
Gave Lizzy gems for 2g anyways cos nobody else wants them.

Lou techs Music.
Shaka did not attack, and moved only 1 step east.

Nothing unusual otherwise i think.
Willy will talk. Gives us Aest for peace (has nothing else), accept?

Made peace, Mansa has 110g i think that would be good enuf to sell him our map for.

Spoiler :

Did not move Caras yet, cos if we sell him our map all new discovered tiles work towards making maps worth something again.

Well the plan for Shaka is easy, if he moves towards HF we ship some units there ~~

I think with Lou on Music with still 3 turns, Feuda would take him too long.
Even Mansa needed something like 9t.

HF chop makes us reactive for Mace whip if needed, bit OF we have + chop + 1 pop whip.

lymond · Mar 12, 2015

mini-Lymo deserves special PR medal for his hard work and sacrifice

and thoughts on idea to chomp Bula short-term?

(^^^yep, thinking with new units coming ferried into Utrecht)

accept

gold for map is great

too bad we can't bribe Lizzy into anarchy..ha

Packers5280 · Mar 12, 2015

Looks like shaka will attack next turn with all those units. We should be able to hold it though with our units.

Good deal with Aest from WvO. He's current at +3 with us so we could still gift some workers for clues and then take The Hague and reclaim our workers again.

I don't think shaka is head for HF. But anyways we should be able to ferry units back and forth with the galleon.

He can't see HF, so he doesn't know there's no units inside and that its weaker.

Gumbolt · Mar 12, 2015

Well pends what Shaka does. Does he continue east or attack with everything next turn. So 8 vs 5 units. 3 chariots. I am not so sure he will attack. He will most likely go for weakest city. He may be heading to sheep to pillage too. Hmmm.

Market looks good for whip. 37!!

Surf mace now would be good. We may need to defend HF. Fingers crossed he attacks Whale watcher.

We could micro HF to grow in 2 turns if we feared an attack.

Still take 5-6 turns for galleons to reach French. Plus time to assemble stack. Our 2 southern mace are tied up with Shaka.

SGOTM 21 - Phoenix Rising

Mycro Junkie

Attachments

Phoenix Rising

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Mycro Junkie

Level 86

Phoenix Rising

Mycro Junkie

Level 86

Rise Up! (Phoenix Style!)

Mycro Junkie

Phoenix Rising

Mycro Junkie

Rise Up! (Phoenix Style!)

Level 86

Phoenix Rising

Mycro Junkie

Mycro Junkie

Rise Up! (Phoenix Style!)

Deity

Phoenix Rising

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