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SGOTM 21 - Plastic Ducks

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jan 9, 2015.

  1. BSPollux

    BSPollux Chieftain

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    Sorry I can't discuss my plans or reasons for the tasks or the reason why they are positioned on #1 with you right now, as it would give you hints about the remaining tasks.
     
  2. Yamps

    Yamps Chieftain

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    I've had a quick check, we'd need 2 turns for Masonry and ~11 turns for Construction. We have 3 mainland cities that could whip catapults right now, hence even more so in 13 turns. While we wait, we could also go about building the GLH in the capital. In any case, I think this strategic option deserves more consideration.

    XPost, @Doshin:

    I'm not attached either way, but I am trying to consider and present other options as I see them. Then the team can evaluate one way or the other. Proving what's better either way isn't easy though. I could do some test tomorrow, but it's up for all to consider this. Hmm, what do others think?
     
  3. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    @BSPollux

    Spoiler :
    I would not expect you to reveal your plans or rationale, simply that you confirm that hint #1 is, to your mind, the first task for that leader that you think could be fulfilled:

    Catherine #1 demands a very long game, so Catherine #2 and #3 would demand games that are as long, if not longer, if we follow the logic of the announcement ("the order in which they can be fulfilled"). I am simply asking whether you stand by this wording.

    I won't comment any more on the matter.
     
  4. BSPollux

    BSPollux Chieftain

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    Let me say it this way: I don't think we made an error when we announced it the way we did. I am looking forward to a nice post game discussion about that :)
     
  5. Yamps

    Yamps Chieftain

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    Regarding our current issue, if we are forced to research Archery as well then it's another 2 turns more. Therefore, getting to Construction isn't that fast and we could easily have to wait before T80 to get it. Our cities will be ready.

    The trouble with CoL next is that we are in that case dismissing or delaying catapult wars for to me unclear benefits, that's why I raised the issue. Regarding IW, I'm willing to gamble that some AI will get Alphabet in the next 15 turns. Even if they don't, we could start with some catapult whipping and gain some time before getting it.

    In my opinion, the key issue is still do we wait for Astro/Engineering wars, or do we fight earlier? Given the Cathy's first task, I'm inclined to think that we should increase our research base asap. Another benefit is that this way we don't get GPP committed and we'd also get to know other tasks earlier by simply giving and taking back workers from Willem. If we do plan to go to war with catapults, it's rather straightforward to assume that earlier is better than later.
     
  6. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    @ Doshin - Tremendous work! :D
    You've played over half the turns in the game for us and we are in a great position now.

    10 oil! I've never controlled that much oil in my life!
    One Oil Well takes 7 turns to improve for a worker which is the same as a Fort.
    And the ocean oil requires Plastics to improve, not just Combustion. :sad:
    4 aluminum and 6 uranium can be a pain to acquire also.
    Ya, definitely a long game now.

    Let's see, peaceful expansion or war expansion... :hmm:
    We've unfogged 166/1133 land tiles. (15%)
    We've met 4 out of 9 AI.

    Willem has 2 cities compared to our 5 and is only slightly stronger than us.
    He is also closer to Shaka (4 cities) than we are.
    Shaka started out -3 with Willem.
    I think the mapmaker hates Willem and wants him dead! :lol:

    The lower Willem's population gets, the less :gold: he will be willing to trade with us. (Currently is 50:gold:)
    So if we want all the gold gifts back from Willem, we can't just leave him with a 1 pop city.
    Which is what will happen if Shaka conquers Willem's capital before we get Alphabet.
    If Willem did end up with one city, the spy mission Steal Treasury would become very powerful though. :hmm:
    The amount of gold you can steal from a city is the city pop/empire pop, so 1 city means you can steal 100% of it.
    So if you want to steal 300 gold you need 900 espionage to start. The espionage cost can be brought down with modifiers. (open borders, espionage spending, culture, religion, etc.)



    15 Forests in the big fat cross.
    At least 11 more with a 2nd border pop.
    Has a city ever had more chopping potential?

    Can perform some Passive Espionage techniques now that we have vision on Utrecht.
    Spoiler :



    The more precise Tachywaxon calculation SabotageProduction*((EspionageByAIOntoYou+100)/(3*InvestigateCity)) yields:
    102*((102+100)/(3*773) = 8.88 = 9:hammers: in Utrecth's current build.
    The fast and dirty Seraiel method of "divide by 10" says Utrecht has 10:hammers: in production.
    Doshin's easiest+accurate calculation (Sabotage Production / Influence Civics) * 100 is currently unavailable.

    We know Amsterdam has 5 pop and Utrecht has 2 pop, so we can calculate exactly how much :gold: Willem has right now.
    Steal Treasury for Utrecht costs 245:espionage: for us right now.
    Test Game indicates there is a +20% distance penalty for Utrecht spy missions.
    Real Game says based on our espionage spending vs. Willem's, there is a 102% cost for spying missions.
    There doesn't seem to be any trade route, culture, or religious modifiers.
    We are searching for the base espionage cost, so we perform Ceiling[245/1.02] 241:espionage:
    Then we perform Ceiling[241/1.2] = 201:espionage: base.
    The amount of gold stolen is espionage base cost/3, so 201/3 = 67:gold: is ready to be stolen in Utrecht.
    Since Utrecht is 2/7th of the population of Willem, that means he should have between 235 to 237:gold: in his bank. :)

    How much of the 236:gold: that Willem will trade with us depends entirely on his maintenance costs, the turns we've known him, how much :gold: we've taken from him in trades, and most especially his total population (7 pop currently)
    http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=12452678&postcount=161
    The amount of gold an AI will trade us is the lower of:
    ((AI Total Population * (Turns since you met the AI + 10) * iMaxGoldTradePercent)/100) - total of all gold that AI traded to player previously
    or
    AIs current gold - (12*deficit * Speed modifier)/100.

    So Willem should currently be offering to trade us ((7*(65+10)*(DanF spreadsheet says 10)/100)-0 = Floor[7*75*10/100] = Floor[52.5] = 50:gold:
    or (Assuming -3:gold: per turn deficit with 2nd city and 100% research)
    235 - (12*(3)*100)/100 = Floor[199] = 190:gold:
    Since 50:gold: is less than 190:gold:, Willem should currently be willing to trade 50:gold: out of his 235:gold:.

    To simplify things, it's easier to think of it like this:
    Turn 65: Willem's Total Pop * 7.5 minus how much gold he has traded to us. 7*7.5-0 = 52.5 gold rounded down to nearest ten.
    Turn 66: Willem's Total Pop * 7.6 minus how much gold he has traded to us . 7*7.6-0 = 53.2 gold rounded down to nearest ten.
    Turn 67: Willem grows to 8 population! 8*7.7-0 = 61.6 gold rounded down to nearest ten.
    That's why vassals who lost half their population always have 0 gold to trade with you. :cry:
     
  7. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    GLH is too risky to start it now unless we could land it before 1000BC. I don't mind of gambling, but not low odd thing which is also very costly if failed. The effort on building GLH also slows down the development of 5th, 6th, and 7th cities.

    Now back the Construction thing. We could finish CoL on T73 and then accumulate cash. This gives us flexibility to decide whether to research it ~T80. With 100% slider, we could complete it in 5 turns. The timing is good with productivity.

    If we are unlucky to trade, I prefer to go for CS and then wait for trade of Construction. The cost of researching all IW, Masonry, and Construction ourselves is too much in my book than the gain from earlier war. One more thing that we have to consider is the happy cap -- Monarchy, which also depends on the trade window.
     
  8. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Is there any way we could found Confu in the Horse + Whale city?
    It sure would be nice to flip the barb hill city to us with :culture:
    Probably too dangerous to try it with Shaka being dangerous to our western empire.

    Any enthusiasm to gift Willem a city in our plains filled northeast?
    Maybe workers would road to it across our empire. :)
    And it would become Willem's capital once we capture all his good cities.

    Great Lighthouse certainly seems a bit more interesting now that we've discovered Isabella.
    There are an awful lot of coastal cities.
    And plenty of spots for tundra fish cities.
    A 3rd island city and some foreign trade routes would ensure all our cities had four 2:gold: trade routes.
    Capturing it would certainly be ideal, but if one of the 5AI we haven't met build it then it could be out of reach for a long time.
    It is expensive ya.
    200:hammers: is basically 2 Settlers.
    That doesn't count the cost of researching Masonry without any marble/stone nearby or building a Lighthouse where it might not be needed (60:hammers:)

    Shaka doesn't have open borders with anyone yet.
    He must have gotten the Judaism spread through a coastal trade route natural spread.
    Hopefully we'll see some missionaries from Elizabeth soon converting Willem and us.
    Shaka is also trading sheep to Willem and Liz, so he must have a lot of sheep!

    T65 Real Game Empire Screenshot



    The 3-Fish city Argus is so beautiful. :king:
    Just gotta protect it from barb galleys once the barbs research Sailing (which happens once most AI know Sailing)
    Horse + Whale city will be the key to controlling the horde of barb galleys.
    I'm not sure we can fogbust the vast southern chain of islands entirely.

    Honestly, this was my 1st thought today as well.
    Gamble for TGL, tech Construction to start conquering our continent.
    The Odeon is also extremely strong for us. +2:) +3:culture: and it only costs 40:hammers: (We are Creative so it's half cost like the libraries)
    2 pop whip catapults into some ground troops. (Archers if necessary, chariots would be better)
    2 pop whip odeons into some ground troops.
    Odeon raises happy cap by 2.
    AI tend to not trade Construction for a while anyway.

    Time to run some tests in the Turn 65 test game. Need to consult Doshin's notes.

    Doshin and Duckweed definitely favor Code of Laws over Construction.
     
  9. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    I ran a quick test of GLH, completed it on 1080BC, that's a surprising result. However, all the other things are in a mess. Have to skip road on the Fur, chop the forest on the Fur, no 2nd WB for Argos, slower 6th city and no worker available. Of course no 7th settler.

    If we have the luck to grab it, all of those messy are worthy, otherwise, the loss from slower development of 3 cities are huge as well.

    Therefore, your tests and decisions, please.:crazyeye:
     
  10. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    Screenshot and saves

    Spoiler :




    Sparta settler before Granary
    Spoiler :



    Compared with no GLH, we have 1 more worker, but no settler even for the 6th city. 2nd WB for Argos is delayed by 2 turns. Spata was stuck at size 3, but this can be adjusted by not whipping the granary but producing settler at size 4.
     

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  11. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    "Sparta Settler before Granary" looks very strong.
    Gives Sparta some time to work off whip anger.
    The 4th worker helps out a lot.
    The corn settler comes out in decent time and we get The Great Lighthouse on 1080BC.

    If we are looking to trade Construction, Elizabeth appears to be a strong candidate.
    If we can convert to Judaism, we'd get +2 relations right away and up to +6 relations 40 turns later because she has the holy city.
    Since we started out +1 relations with her, open borders bonus and +4 fair trade should get her to Friendly quickly if we can just get a religion spread.

    Our teching power is very strong!


    Tried a variation to get some Granaries done earlier, but I'm not sure it is any better.
    Sparta ends up not working cows 1 turn and gems 3 turns.
    Corinth ends up having to 1-pop whip a workboat (anger not a problem since city grows slow) and Athens 3-pop whips a 7th settler for us to overflow into a 3rd workboat.
    Also, The Great Lighthouse is 1 turn slower.
    Spoiler :


    I'm still a bit undecided about Code of Laws or Construction after Masonry.
    If we did Construction 1st, we should send 3 workers to Corn city to chop Granary + Catapults after TGL, and forget the 8th city (fish) up north.


    Isn't 1080BC The Great Lighthouse worth attempting?
    It appears every single city is going to be coastal on this map.
     
  12. Yamps

    Yamps Chieftain

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    Regarding Construction, there's special protection for that since it enables a strong military unit. It's not likely we could trade it anytime soon. And good point about the Odeon, that has value as well. I'll do same tests too when I get back home from work. :scan:
     
  13. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    SpartSettler looks good. I think the GLH is worth a gamble with the current wonder dates, the Catherine #1 objective, and generally weak settling spots in the available land.

    Is Fish Island optimized? How does the timing of a Worker and WB in Corinth work out? Is it better to slow build a second WB before a Worker or Settler (could go: 6H / 8H / 8H / 8H)?

    If only one WB is available at size 2, it will be better to work the Plains Hill until the border pop to enable an instant Granary whip at size 2. Previous notes:

    Spoiler :
    ^^^^ before we found the third Fish.

    We could also consider whipping the GLH itself. This would waste 15H per whipped pop, so I think it is likely weaker, but it would also let us road the Furs sooner and preserve the Fur Forest.
     
  14. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    @kaitzilla

    Interesting test. I feel that even 1 turn earlier GLH could be critical for a try now, that's why I had to ignore the road on the Fur to manage the earliest GLH.

    How did manage the build in Corinth? Did you produce 2nd WB for Argos?

    I'm not 100% sure that 1 turn earlier of the Corn site is worth sacrificing Sparta. With GLH, the early new city is certainly a good gain. However, Corn site only has 1 resource tile and not enough workers could arrive to help in time. Maybe someone could show a math model or a test to prove.

    Will take a look at this option.

    Edit: Because we need to whip on T73, which means capital will be short of 1 turn of production. As I noticed from previous test, the production in capital is quite tight, which means we might need to do 3 pop whip of GLH. The good thing is that we save the forest on the Fur tile, connect the Fur, Corinth would have better productivity. The bad part is of course another settler from capital would be delayed.
     
  15. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    The AI tech pace is very slow relative to our own: Isabella doesn't know Bronze Working yet, Elizabeth probably doesn't have it, none of the AI on our continent have Writing (whether Isabella has it is unclear), and no-one has Iron Working. :crazyeye:

    It's easy to overestimate the global tech speed, because we have a super-powered start (free Worker, 3x Gems) coupled with SGOTM levels of micro, a Math bulb, and a T62 Currency, all of which makes it seem like we should be dealing with AI who are closing in on Alphabet when in fact they're stuck scrabbling around in the dirt. :lol:

    To whip twice in Corinth, I think we'd need to whip almost immediately and introduce a Warrior into the build order, before regrowth to size 4. Something like: WB (whip) ---> Warrior (OF) ---> WB (OF and slow-build) ---> Worker/Settler (2-pop).

    The gain of +6F in Fish Island would need to outweigh the costs of heavier, early whipping in Corinth, and building a Warrior that would not be needed with just 1-whip.
     
  16. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Spoiler :

    1st I completed the 1 turn farm and moved the 2nd worker onto the Corinth forest.
    Once the workboat finished, put a turn into a Worker and then 2-pop whipped+chop.
    The massive overflow went into a granary which got slow built over 3 turns.
    Then a workboat was started and 1-pop whipped the following turn on Turn 75.

    Getting workers up to the Corn city wasn't hard.
    Roaded the gems 1N of Corinth.
    Then once The Great Lighthouse was built, I moved a worker into Athens, loaded it onto the boat, and then sailed north while picking up the Fur Island worker too.
    Then the following turn, both workers unloaded in Corinth, walked north along the gems road, and then moved up towards the corn.
    Using the boat, one Worker managed to go 9 tiles north in 2 turns. :)

    Here is the test continued out to Turn 77:
    Using 3 workers on Corn City, Granary got chopped while the city was still 1 pop, a road to corn got built, corn got improved in 2 turns, and there was another farm ready when Corn City reached pop-2.
    Then the workers could keep chopping and improving Corn City, or chop out a Settler, or split up to improve other cities.
    Spoiler :





    I've tested a bunch more.
    The "Sparta Settler before Granary save" still feels the strongest.
    It even gives us options to save Sparta (still 4 pop) if Shaka attacks us, which I really like.
    And The Great Lighthouse on 1080BC instead of 1040BC is huge.
     
  17. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    This would not work if we want 1080BC GLH. I feel that Doshin's suggestion of whipping GLH is probably the best. We could also produce 2nd WB for Argos in time.

    I'll give it a test tonight.
     
  18. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    All right, 3 pop whip of GLH, which is the 1st time that I have tried to grab a wonder in such a way.:crazyeye:

    Spoiler :




    There are still questions about what to produce in Corinth, which is a headache for me.

    Spoiler :




    There are a few options here

    I did 2 pop whip of a worker and then 1 pop whip a 2nd WB for Argos as you can see that Argos's 2nd fish net is created in time. What to produce next?

    • Granary as showed, it can be completed in 3 turns with a forest chop.
    • 3rd WB for Argos, the alternative is a WB from capital, but that would be 1 turn slower.
    • Another worker or a settler

    Regarding Kaitzilla's test of Sparta's micro, I still prefer not to whip the settler. Since workers are not totally ready. We could send the 2 workers near Corinth to chop the forests ahead for quick granary in Corn site. Improved Corn gives 2F, while granary gives 3F with unimproved Corn.

    Another thing needs to be decided is whether to research Construction or CoL immediately. If we could grab GLH, then we could focus more on military action and be more forgiven of economy.
     

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  19. kossin

    kossin Chieftain

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    :lol:
     
  20. Duckweed

    Duckweed Chieftain

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    ^We did not whip it as it's only emperor level.:D Did we? Not in my playing set at least.
     

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