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SGOTM 21 - Plastic Ducks

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jan 9, 2015.

  1. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    Yes: after Astronomy, as long as you
    * have Construction
    * DO NOT have Civil Service (Paper>Education line) and Meditation (it opens up Philosophy, wasteful)

    then Engineering is the next bulb option.

     
  2. shakabrade

    shakabrade Praise Vivec!

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    Very static analysis based on too many assumptions and too small of a figure. You are not weighing GLH against Astro + Engineering end of story, but against that not being end of story, and also, that not being a story at all.
    Simply apples and oranges and convenient selection of facts and also out of a pocket numbers. 10T earlier Astro is estimated with presumption that 10T earlier Astro will indeed lead to 10T earlier victory possible with medieval units, based on presumption that military VC is the fastest. Too long chain of assumptions.

    Our capital is not a bureau capital, we'll lose bulbing, where are we with commerce and research if we are wrong?

    I look at GLH in terms of mid and late game where it is super powerful and worth hundreds of beakers per turn. It is good for both economy and peaceful victories. It also speeds up the research of techs we won't bulb early game but are tech prereqs for bulbing and probably reduces one GS needed for a bulb which is great since what are the odds that all of our GPeople will come out exactly what we want. Some of small techs have their use too and GLH also generates GM GPP, which are welcomed. If we can capture it around 800AD, it is not as useful. It shines when we get Astro and that is very early with or without GLH. Better techs can mitigate a bit of production simply with more advanced and powerful units.

    Also, 3 ladies must not build it. Can we win a heart of a lady we are killing? Probably not.
    If we have GLH global tech pace is lower and we will not face muskets and rifles if we need to war at all.

    There could still be a lot of reasons not to build GLH or Mids or Colossus. But we don't know anything yet and shouldn't have formed strong opinions about anything, especially since we still don't even have to. You can guess, but you can't know anything based on the current info and tailored map.

    The only wonder which can marry all our assumptions and is in line with all VCs are Mids with stone. We get research, we get GPP, we get production from Police state and some happiness while in Representation for whips.

    At least 3 AIs are away somewhere and can't be reached and their wonders taken for a long time.
     
  3. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    Were you pointing at me?;) Partially true, without stone, NEVER! With stone plus a military competition game, mostly yes. SGOTM11, 14, and 17, I guess you remember who seek for mids and stone from the beginning.:D
     
  4. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    Colossus is definitely not a choice since it conflicts with our major goal, Astronomy.
     
  5. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    The only thing that you want to be careful is the timing of the WB. Whether working on 2F1C or 1F1H1C tile before the border pops. After that, 3F1C tile or 2F2H tile?
     
  6. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    Yep, that's what I meant and Duckweed also stated it somewhat earlier.

    @shakabrade

    I agree it all depends on the accuracy of the estimate that we'd be able to get to Astro +Engineering 10 turns earlier without the GLH. It's a big deal to lose 10 turns without being able to compensate for it later on.

    When we secure the heart, and possibly even earlier, the lady in question is fair game for war.

    Regarding the Mids, Doshin's estimates only showed that if other things are equal that Mids would give around 1000 beakers more before the war and presumably 3-5 turns earlier start than in the case where all other things are equal and we don't have the Mids to boost research. However, other things wouldn't be equal because we'd lose more than 5 turns to setup the Mids and we'd have delays in GP farm setup.

    I also agree this is all pure air so far since we practically don't have any idea what's out there, but we've got to start with something. :)
     
  7. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    I ran some micro tests. Since the issue of delaying tech decisions came up, I thought I would show:

    (1) Agriculture Delayed Until T5

    Spoiler :


    T9: 86/97B with +10C in the capital, and the free +1B, leads to a T10 Agriculture. No Worker turns wasted.


    (2) Agriculture Begun on T1

    Spoiler :


    T10: 96/97B means a T11 Agriculture. One Worker turn is wasted, and the Farm will be delayed by one turn (loss of 3F, slower second city, etc.).

    I thought this was a nice illustration of how the smallest of micro decisions (1B!) can compound early on.

    We will need to track the actual :science: amount carefully in the real game, since experience has shown that this can easily deviate from tests due to unforeseen factors, and we may need to alter the micro accordingly. As a guide, on T6 we should have 56/97B in Agriculture.

    ------

    Anyway, my T14:

    Spoiler :

    The test file is attached. It is possible to have growth to size 3 (24/24F) and the Workboat build (30/30H) coincide, as you can see.

    I can supply a PPP for micro around the capital, if you'd like.
     

    Attached Files:

  8. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    That's a good question.
    I'm going to cancel plans to play in the morning and run tests instead. :)

    Ok, now I'm really motivated to practice getting the "delayed tech until turn 5 trick" correct. :goodjob:
    I will give it a careful look Doshin.
     
  9. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    @Doshin

    Nice! :cool:
     
  10. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Mmm, I've worked it forwards, backwards, and sideways.
    Doshin's Turn 14 looks pretty ideal.
    It gives a Turn 22 Settler.

    A 2nd city 2N of the Wheat looks like a pretty good idea.
    2 Gems, Wheat, riverside farm, 2 grass hills, and +4:food: to support 2 specialists.
    And I'm pretty sure it forms a trade route on the coast since all the borders are internal. :D

    The main problem is a lack of a warrior to shoo away animals up north to let us settle the 2nd city safely.

    It's possible to get Turn 22 Settler and Warrior, but the workboat isn't out in good time.

    Will keep testing.
    The possible choices are more difficult than I thought.
     
  11. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    The Cow site looks better in my mind since it helps expansion as well, while sharing the wheat with capital only helps economy. Therefore, the 2nd tech should be AH.

    Don't worry too much about the safety of 2nd city, scout can do pretty good job.
     
  12. shakabrade

    shakabrade Praise Vivec!

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    Or, we could go for Bronze Working already and simply Farm the cow?
    That means that Slavery can be used around 13-14T sooner, right?

    Just one cow we see isn't enough to convince me to go for AH already.
    We also delay our Granary that way.

    I'd rather go for something like Mining, BW, Wheel, Pottery. Then, maybe AH if there is more animals.


    Edit: great test, Doshin! :goodjob:
     
  13. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    Farming the Cow deserves a test.

    However, 2H is quite big in early game, especially the second city is going to pump worker/settler at size 2 or 3 or even at size 1. Slavery won't be very useful early on without granary. Whether we want to have pottery is a question since we want Writing to hire Scientists. Sailing is also a critical tech to settling the island.

    The criteria to judge the opening is the time to Oracle Currency.
     
  14. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    Early Writing would be good I think. We have a serious production advantage going on with the free worker so technically we should be focused on beakers.
     
  15. shakabrade

    shakabrade Praise Vivec!

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    We can claim gems earlier with BW and there you go your research. :p
    We aren't losing it at all.

    GPP shouldn't be a problem. It is too early to commit first cities to GPP. We might need to fight for land with 26% land mass.

    Edit: Fight with REX, not units.
     
  16. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    There is also the issue of trade routes, which will require us to research one of The Wheel or Sailing.

    Although the Crabs will help, this is a poor commerce start until we get the Gems online. Testing will show whether earlier trade connections or earlier access to the Gems would be more advantageous.
     
  17. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    I also prefer the Cow spot. We'd work more food tiles altogether which is most important early on. However, I also agree with shakabrade that there's not enough merit yet to research AH after Agriculture.

    This sounds good to me, emphasis on expansion.

    I'm still not on board that hiring scientists so early and Oracling Currency would be best. You haven't commented on this post:

    Here you are advocating delaying Pottery in favor to Writing and hiring scientists, which are both development costs to evaluate. In my mind, I'm on board with the general plan of settling as many good GP farms as fast as possible. There's been much talk about GLH and Mids benefits, with estimated yields for both at around 1000 gold before the Engineering/Astro war. Let's note here that if we were to get one more GM in the same period, that would also yield some 1000 gold in trade route money.

    So, I think we should have a test comparison between Oracle -> CoL and Oracle -> Currency. Oracle -> CoL would have stronger early expansion and therefore stronger GPP potential. If this means one more GM due to that, and one more due to not burning one GS on math, I'd expect shorter war preparation period and earlier Astro date. How would ~10 turns earlier Currency compete with 2 more GM and stronger early development?

    The Wheel is on our way to Pottery and Sailing would not be needed if we were to settle 2N of wheat. Therefore, we can get Sailing somewhat later.
     
  18. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    @Yamps

    I thought I explained why Currency is better than CoL here

    I emphasized that CoL is unnecessary before all GP farms are mature. We could produce all GPs in a short period with a GA. A GM is better than a GS when there are lots of science multipliers building, while here we probably have only 1 library in capital. The number of GPs we need are

    1 for Math
    a golden age
    1 for Optics
    2 for Astro
    1 for Engineering

    I remember that we also burned 1 GS for Phi in SGOTM14, then what's the 8th for, maybe we only produced 7.:confused:

    6 GPs is very easy for a phi leader, that's why I said we don't need to consider the waste of a GS on Math.

    The other reason of Currency is that we can know the tasks sooner than later.
     
  19. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    There's still a couple of points why I'm not convinced:

    We'd have stronger early expansion if we don't hire 2 scientists for Math and if we prioritize Pottery in favor to Writing. This way we'd also get our GP farms to mature earlier.

    Whether a GS is better than GM largely depends on what we bulb. Optics and especially Math of course, are very cheap. Also notice that I'm not advocating a pure GM approach. We could still farm 2GS for Astro, one for Engineering and use GM to fund previous research.

    It's not enough to say that we can easily get 6GP with a Philosophical leader, that's a given. There's also a factor of time and how it coincides with other techs. In your approach with pure GS we'd be limited with other techs so naturally it doesn't matter in that plan to be able to generate more GS. However, what I'm arguing here is that we could speed those other techs by using GM for that and then finally 3 GS for Astro and Engineering. Maybe also one for Optics, but that doesn't change the general idea.

    With that in mind, I don't think getting Currency some ~10 turns earlier merits early development sacrifices.

    I agree that we'd likely get CoL before our GP farms are ready. Still, we'd be better off in terms of expansion. There's also a third option that doesn't curb expansion as much as oracling Currency: Metal Casting. We could decide at that point what's better to take, Metal Casting or CoL while researching Math -> Currency.
     
  20. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    Math chops are usually worth 10 turns of city development (initial granary), so even if you slow down capital a bit, the rest of the empire is sped up quite a bit.
     

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