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SGOTM 21 - Plastic Ducks

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jan 9, 2015.

  1. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    Hmm...wouldn't we chop the granary in the capital earlier if we research Pottery and BW before Writing?

    EDIT: ok, you mean benefits for other cities. Well, that's something to evaluate in more detail to see how much do we gain from chopping granaries with earlier Math when compared to earlier Pottery and earlier whipping in the capital with granary. The capital has very strong whipping potential so I'd think that's better.
     
  2. soundjata

    soundjata Be like water

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    How soon do we need barb defenders ?

    AH could get us a lucky horse maybe?
    If not we can fall back on archery maybe?
     
  3. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    There were 3 reasons listed in the link, one included the Advantage from Math, not only faster granaries, but also the chops for Oracle, which is instantly needed.

    The reason why CoL is not urgent is because that we would want to stay with slavery for some time to setup GP farms. Therefore, producing a GM costs expansion as well. Oracling Currency does not mean getting Currency only 10 turns earlier, probably 20+ turns earlier since without currency, the tech pace is slower, moreover, we are in fast expansion after Oracling, the tech rate will be further down.

    Since I have not run any tests, so post# 93 is only my intuition. As I said, farming the Cow deserved a test. Delaying pottery also needs tests. From our previous experience, we did not build any granary before Oracle. Other people including you are likely having better view of the tech path.:)
     
  4. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    Last time the barbarian started to invade ~T50, we had 4 cities? It also depends on how fast AIs expand.
     
  5. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    I'm not sure I can top this micro.
    It is very efficient.
    The capital grows to Size 3 and finishes the Workboat with no overflow on Turn 14.
    Turn 22 Settler is hard to pass up since we have a worker not doing much around that time.
    Start of Turn 10, Test Game:
    Spoiler :

    My plan is to play it up until Turn 10 and then pass the turnset onto someone else. :)
    On that turn, Agriculture is complete, the worker has the choice to start improving the wheat, and all our tech choices diverge.
    It should be possible to settle the cows almost 100% safely without a warrior or scout helping. Unless the mapmaker added some real barbarians in. :hmm:

    With this in mind, I think our Scout needs to check out the area around cows before going to investigate north of the gems.
    We won't have any new warriors or scouts to explore before our 1st settler is completed, so our current scout needs to explore both cow and gem areas.


    PPP Turn 0 to Turn 10​

    Tech
    Keep deselecting tech choice each turn, then choose Agriculture on Turn 5.
    Slider 100%:science: whole turnset.


    Athens
    Founded 2E of the Settler on Turn 1. (Record the x,y map coordinates from the Domestic Advisor Sub-Menu)
    T1-T3 Workboat; RGrassland
    T4-T5 Workboat; Wheat
    T6-T8 Workboat; Deer
    T9 Workboat; Deer,Fur
    ========================
    T10-T13 Workboat; Deer,Wheat
    T14-T21 Settler; Deer,Wheat,Clams

    Worker
    T1 Move 1E
    T2 Move 1W
    T3 Don't move
    T4-T7 Deer Camp
    T8-T9 Move to Wheat
    ========================
    T10-T14 Farm Wheat

    Scout
    T0-T2 See Map
    Spoiler :

    T3 Pause for team input from screenshot (I want to scout northwest, then northeast, then southest and end up north of the gems)
    T5 Start moving 1 tile at a time and avoid dying to barb animals (especially bears!)
    T7 Pause for team input from screenshot

    Diplo - None
    Espionage - Willem

    Check every turn
    Zoomed out culture
    Screenshot Demographics screen

    Stopping Conditions
    Barbarians or Barb Galleys/Triremes spotted
    Scout gets into trouble
    **EDIT** Agriculture doesn't have exactly 56:science: at the start of turn 6.
    Anything unexpected happens
    Beginning of Turn 10 is reached and upload game

    Barb Estimate
    There are 1144 land tiles in the game and 10 civs.
    So each civ will average 114 tiles before all the land is gone. (Not a lot) :crazyeye:
    I can't see the barbarians being a huge pain this game.
    Animals will start to appear on turn 5 and go away (replaced by real barbs) when the world averages 1.5 non-barb cities and 15 turns have elapsed (normal/immortal).
    Not sure if we'll get wolves or bears, but saw 1 bear in the test game. :sad:
    More on barbs Here, Here, and Here
     
  6. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    The PPP looks good to me, Kaitzilla. :)

    As another stopping point, I would suggest checking that the :science: on T6 matches the test, since things are so exact.

    -----

    I think scouting and tests will determine the future tech path, but for me, assuming that we settle the Cow/Gems/Crabs spot, the present choices are between Animal Husbandry and Mining/Bronze Working. The timing of city growth, the Work Boat, and growth onto the Gems will influence things.

    My gut (untested) feeling is that AH will prove the way to go, in spite of the beaker investment, because this will enable the city to contribute more than :commerce: to the empire. A 5F surplus in the city (Cows +4, Crabs +2, Gems –1) is not amicable to whipping without a Granary, and this city will have quite a heavy build queue (Workboat(s) / Warrior(s) / Lighthouse / Galley?) even ignoring Workers and Settlers.

    ----

    Things aren't so simple with the Mids and GLH. E.g. to take the Mids as an example, I provided the raw beaker benefits from running Scientists, but did not account for the beakers saved from avoiding Monarchy, the happiness provided by Representation, and, very importantly, the huge :hammers: savings provided by Police State when we enter the warring phase. I also generally assume that the Mids will be available later than the GLH or Oracle, which means that the wonder does not impact REXing so severely.

    However, without Stone, all of this is hot air, so let's see what the map has hiding before we continue planning. :goodjob:
     
  7. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    Regarding trade routes, the capital will pop borders at T26 (25*4) which will enable coastal trade route with the second city... no rush for The Wheel indeed.

    No objections to the PPP.
     
  8. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    Plan looks good to me.

    Did a quick estimation of the tech pace.

    AH takes 10~11 turns, Mining + BW might take 20 turns. 2nd city can be settled ~T24, pasture takes 4 turns, therefore on T28, the worker has to wait for BW for ~10 turns. We gain 20H from pasture of the Cow, but lose 60C and 10 worker turns on farming weak tiles from delaying the BW. Mining + BW + farm the Cow seems the way to go.
     
  9. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    The plan looks very nice, let's do it! :)

    @Duckweed

    Ok, we'll see. Hopefully some tests will show more accurately what's best. Some comments regarding that issue:

    Farming GM and running Caste would be a cost, but I'd not suggest it before we get our GP farms in place. They'd only build granaries and some of them libraries which are not an issue with Creative leader. More or less the same like in the Currency plan.

    Even if we were to get Currency 20 turns later, that would only be around 100 gold more with 5 cites. One extra GM would offer 1000 more. This is a key issue for me, maybe we could replace the Math GS with a GM one and maybe we could get another one as well if we don't hire 2 scientists so soon and setup our last GP farm earlier. I also don't ecpect it to be a 20 turns difference, our research should be fine with all that gems.

    We'll know better when we explore more and check GPP potential. Since the tech path is clear after your last post (Agri->Mining->BW), we'll have plenty of time to get enough information for better tests.

    @Doshin regarding the Mids

    We'd not have to research Monarchy, the AI always gives it away in trade. It's mostly about Police State. The question is then, for me at least, would the initial investments cause a loss of more than 1 GM/GS in the same time frame before the Astro war. But let's wait and see where's stone. :)
     
  10. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    I forgot to mention it earlier and it might matter since we have contact with Willem from the start: we could easily tell if he has any of the techs that we are able to research. More precisely, it is possible to tell how many civs that we know have the tech in question. I guess you're well aware of this, it's about tech prerequisite bonuses. Anyway, I have a spreadsheet developed in the last US game that could easily calculate that.
     
  11. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    The PPP looks to have broad support. :)

    Play through the test game went good.
    Testing indicates on Turn 2 that the Scout should move 1NW onto the grass hill and not 2N1W to the tile north of it, so will make that change.

    Playing Now

    Turn 1 - Athens founded.
    We are at (55,8) on the map.
    The x-coordinate doesn't matter because the world is cylindrical, but we are 8 tiles from the bottom of the map.

    Turn 3 - Game Paused for Team Comments :)
    I'm still in favor of exploring Northwest+Northeast+Southeast to end up above/north of gems.
    I'd like to do 2N1W on Turn 3 unless there are people who really want to explore the southwest for some reason.
    Spoiler :





    Resuming play! ...

    Turn 4 - Capital border pop reveals a Fish far to the northwest.

    Turn 6 - Agriculture has 56:science: hurray!
    Delaying the tech choice until Turn 5 got us the needed +1:science:

    Turn 7 - Decided to keep going since no team decision is needed based on terrain.
    **Edit** Doshin pointed out that Buddhism was founded this turn, my apologies for leaving it out.

    Turn 8 - Stopping Condition reached.
    Our Scout is staring at a Lion.
    Do we move 1S1E and challenge it to attack us on the forested hill?
    It would be 2.75:strength: vs. 2:strength:
    I think we should risk it.
    Spoiler :



    Game Paused for Team Input :)
    Resuming play with retreating Scout! ...

    Turn 10 - Agriculture is ours with zero overflow. :)
    Game Uploaded.
    Upload is NOT paused.

    Log:
    Spoiler :
    Reference number: 14490
    Game: C-IV SGOTM 21
    Your team: Plastic Ducks
    Your name: Kaitzilla
    Date submitted: 2015-01-13
    Software Version: BtS 3.19
    Game date: 3600BC
    Total turns played: 10
    Session turns played: 10
    Player race: Greece
    Firaxis score: 42
    Session time played (hh:mm:ss): 01:28:05
    Total time played (hh:mm:ss): 01:28:07
    Game status: Incomplete
    Submitted save: SGOTM21 Turn 10 Start of Turn upload.CivBeyondSwordSave
    Renamed file: Plastic_Ducks_SG021_BC3600_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

    Right click the Renamed File link above to copy it.
    You can then paste it into your team post as the download link for the next player.

    Here is your Session Turn Log from 4000 BC to 3600 BC:


    Turn 1, 3960 BC: Athens has been founded.

    Turn 3, 3880 BC: The borders of Athens have expanded!

    Turn 7, 3720 BC: Buddhism has been founded in a distant land!

    Turn 8, 3680 BC: Athens will grow to size 2 on the next turn.

    Turn 9, 3640 BC: Athens has grown to size 2.
    Turn 9, 3640 BC: You have discovered Agriculture!

    You may wish to copy it to Notepad for reference when you write your turn set post. It includes any entries you added with the in-game Chat facility

    Buffy Log:
    Spoiler :
    Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
    ------------------------------------------------
    Turn 0/500 (4000 BC) [13-Jan-2015 11:38:20]
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    Turn 1/500 (3960 BC) [13-Jan-2015 11:38:24]
    Athens founded
    Athens begins: Work Boat (30 turns)
    100% Research: 10 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    Turn 2/500 (3920 BC) [13-Jan-2015 11:46:27]
    Research begun: Agriculture (8 Turns)
    100% Research: 10 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    Turn 3/500 (3880 BC) [13-Jan-2015 11:54:19]
    Research begun: Agriculture (7 Turns)

    Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
    ------------------------------------------------
    Turn 3/500 (3880 BC) [13-Jan-2015 13:33:39]
    100% Research: 10 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    After End Turn:
    Athens's borders expand

    Turn 4/500 (3840 BC) [13-Jan-2015 13:33:40]
    Research begun: Agriculture (7 Turns)
    100% Research: 10 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    Turn 5/500 (3800 BC) [13-Jan-2015 13:43:32]
    Research begun: Agriculture (5 Turns)
    100% Research: 10 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    Turn 6/500 (3760 BC) [13-Jan-2015 13:50:06]
    100% Research: 9 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    After End Turn:

    Other Player Actions:
    Attitude Change: Willem van Oranje (Netherlands) towards Pericles (Greece), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'

    Turn 7/500 (3720 BC) [13-Jan-2015 13:57:05]
    A Camp was built near Athens
    100% Research: 9 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    After End Turn:

    Other Player Actions:
    Buddhism founded in a distant land

    Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
    ------------------------------------------------
    Turn 8/500 (3680 BC) [13-Jan-2015 20:10:21]
    100% Research: 9 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    After End Turn:
    Athens grows to size 2

    Other Player Actions:
    Attitude Change: Willem van Oranje (Netherlands) towards Pericles (Greece), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'

    Turn 9/500 (3640 BC) [13-Jan-2015 20:10:21]
    100% Research: 10 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    After End Turn:
    Tech research finished: Agriculture

    Turn 10/500 (3600 BC) [13-Jan-2015 20:16:06]
    Research begun: Mining (8 Turns)
     
  12. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    If, with our coastal capital, we were 6th in land area on T1, there will be a large number of AI starting by the sea.

    Yep, 2N1W still seems good to me.
     
  13. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    @Yamps

    You are probably too optimistic with the economic situation, even with the 3 gems, the maintenance fee is going to kill the economy after settling more than 6 cities. There are strong reasons why I and probably others (who are silent;)) favors Currency so much. There are other benefits from Currency, for instance, resource trade, sell tech for cash, and most important, knowing the 3 tasks, which make Currency more than 20 turns earlier pays for its cost.

    Not sure about whether we could claim Marble, otherwise, the math bonus is also critical for safe Oracle.

    Here's a screenshot on T83 of SGOTM14 after we settled 7 cities. That map had a gem and a gold in 2nd and 3rd city. In that game, we bulbed Math, Oracle CoL, but gave up Currency since we just did not have the research ability to learn it early enough.

    http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=10930877&postcount=900

    @Kaitzilla

    Not much to comment, The scout can scout a bit more aggressively after T5, especially if the 2nd tile is a forest or hill.
     
  14. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    One AI has 2 land squares (so an island) and possibly out of contention for GLH. Might be interesting if all 3 ladies are island refugees.

    At least 2 Creative leaders (one being WvO), 19 more tiles claimed on T3 by AI.

    WvO EP:
    T1 - 4
    T2 - 8
    T3 - 12

    EDITed: nevermind, I read it correctly now.
     
  15. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Turn 8 - Stopping Condition reached.
    Our Scout is staring at a Lion.
    Do we move 1S1E and challenge it to attack us on the forested hill?
    It would be 2.75:strength: vs. 2:strength: (87.8% chance we win according to test game)
    I think we should risk it.





    Game Paused for Team Input :)
    Note the pesky wolf stalking our cows too.
    And the fish northeast of our capital.
    Haven't spotted Willem yet.

    Will be back later.
     
  16. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    Ok, these are all fair points. Of course, there's also the ability to build wealth if needed even if we don't really want to do that. Either way, I'm not attached to any option. Just trying to evaluate if we choose strategy A could some strategy B beat us.

    @Kaitzilla

    Hmm...the alternative is to go back and try to incite that wolf to attack us so that we don't have to build a warrior for settler protection. If we fight that lion, could we still get back on time even though we'd have to spend some time healing?

    Another :think: ...the land doesn't look that good for the massive GP farm approach. Also, too bad about many AI being coastal, the GLH would be useful here.
     
  17. Doshin

    Doshin jolly yellow giant

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    The Scout has 87.8% odds versus the Lion, if it moves to the hill.

    If we get screwed by the RNG, the capital can grow to size 4 and build a Warrior before the Settler. We can grow onto a mined Grassland Hill in this time, adding +2:hammers: +1 :commerce: to any subsequent Settler or Worker builds.

    We'll gain a little :commerce:, because the capital's borders pop a 2–3 turns after the second city is settled with the current micro (hence no instant trade routes).

    We will need 3–4 turns to build a Warrior; with OF and the extra worked tile, the Settler should(?) be delayed by 3 turns.

    The delay to the second city sucks, OFC.

    -------

    I would risk the battle, since we need to explore and the odds are good.

    A more conservative approach would be to fortify in place: there is a 20% chance the Lion will move to attack us next turn; a 40% chance the Lion will move in a way that blocks our exploration; and a 60% chance the Lion will retreat east.

    The safest approach would be to retrace our steps towards Cow/Gems, and then move from the hill Gems to 1NE (T12). However, I don't like this approach that much, since the animals will begin to disappear on T15 and we risk getting swatted by the Lion anyway.
     
  18. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Even if it takes the Scout 8 turns to heal, it can probably make it back to cows in time to scout the area.

    Our settler won't need eyes on the area until Turn 23, and even then our Worker might be able to scout ahead and scoot back if our Scout isn't available.

    If 13% chance of dying is too risky, yes we can backtrack towards wolf if that is what team wants. :)

    I still favor risking it.

    3rd option is to wait for Lion to move southeast, then carefully explore forward 1 move a time.
    Time it would take for this is not able to be estimated.
     
  19. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    I'm a bit favors retreating.

    Our 3rd city will be the north 2 gems since there's no other good site east. Scouting it now satisfies our curiosity earlier, but does not change the fact that our 3rd city is somewhere around.

    Either our warrior or scout could scout that area after setting 2nd city.
     
  20. Yamps

    Yamps Deity

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    ^ I agree, we can explore later and we could use a healthy scout fortified on a gems hill to fight the wolf. Getting the second city without delays is more important.
     

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