SGOTM 22 - Anti-TSR

[LowtherCastle]

In my head (risky business these dayz):

T73 Rome library, HC settler (partial 1t)
T74 HC wkr (maxOF into spy)
T74 Rome warrior (for OF into spy)
T75 Alpha
T78 Rome spy
T79 HC spy
T86 HC settler

 

[LowtherCastle]

Tbh, I'd rather capture marble with city#5 (or #6), maybe even along with some iron.

Do you mean pre-BW with chariots? That's surely a thought. Gets back to our original intent.

 

[Pollina]

In my head (risky business these dayz):

T73 Rome library, HC settler (partial 1t)
T74 HC wkr (maxOF into spy)
T74 Rome warrior (for OF into spy)
T75 Alpha
T78 Rome spy
T79 HC spy
T86 HC settler

HC can't grow while building settler/worker, so the spy wouldn't be out until t81 t80. Ok, I figured it out. Wb overflow has to go into worker, then settler for 2 turns, then back to worker.

 

[Pollina]

Do you mean pre-BW with chariots? That's surely a thought. Gets back to our original intent.

With or without BW. Whatever we think is faster.

 

[LowtherCastle]

HC can't grow while building settler/worker, so the spy wouldn't be out until t81 t80. Ok, I figured it out. Wb overflow has to go into worker, then settler for 2 turns, then back to worker.

Actually, I wrote it in a confusing manner. I meant the HC wkr is back at the top of the build queue on T74 and completes on T75. That only requires building the settler 1t right? Growth and plains hill mining occurs while spy is being built.

 

[WastinTime]

Actually, I wrote it in a confusing manner. I meant the HC wkr is back at the top of the build queue on T74 and completes on T75. That only requires building the settler 1t right? Growth and plains hill mining occurs while spy is being built.

Sounds like you're banking on alpha T75. Like Pollina said, it will be hard without FishCity getting trade rts. Or some small miracles.

RE: missionary for DaGift.
I find the AI has a tendency to spread once to each other player. In other words, we might get one of those hindus, but DaGift could get the other. One reason Sal might skip DaGift is that Darius already has religion.

 

[Pollina]

Actually, I wrote it in a confusing manner. I meant the HC wkr is back at the top of the build queue on T74 and completes on T75. That only requires building the settler 1t right? Growth and plains hill mining occurs while spy is being built.

We need two turns into the settler. Otherwise the worker would finish too early. Three turns into settler, if we get Alpha on t76.

With the PH mine, we can get the settler on t85, 1t sooner than without it.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Sounds like you're banking on alpha T75. Like Pollina said, it will be hard without FishCity getting trade rts. Or some small miracles.

When you say T75, WT, I put it in the bank. You haven't missed yet, as far as I can recall.

My maintenance calculator says that if we settle Fish at 1N, then our maintenance will be 5gpt until HC is pop3 or both are pop2. Fish is pop2 on T76 T73 whether we delay the nets 1t or not. Is that what you were basing your calcs on?

.

 

[LowtherCastle]

T66
9g reserves
T67-68 -6g
T69-73 -25g
T74-75 -12g
43g-9g=+34g needed
448b-274b=+174b needed

T67-68 0% slider @ +17gpt, +1bpt
T69-73 100% @ -5gpt, +25bpt
T74-75 100% @ -6gpt, +31bpt (Fish pop2 working 1f2c)

Totals:
9g+34g-6g-25g-12g=0g
274b+2b+125b+62b=463b > 448b

T75 Alpha made in the shades. We can even work the 2f1c. Am I missing something? (As usual.)

 

[WastinTime]

We're doing 17 bpt, but sadly that does not convert to +17gpt @ 0%.
It's 14gpt.

Otherwise, your numbers look good. We're just 6 gold short, so a small slider adjust should still get Alpha T75.

Are you ignoring Library since we're probably delaying it past 75?

 

[LowtherCastle]

We're doing 17 bpt, but sadly that does not convert to +17gpt @ 0%.
It's 14gpt.

Otherwise, your numbers look good. We're just 6 gold short, so a small slider adjust should still get Alpha T75.

Are you ignoring Library since we're probably delaying it past 75?

Right, I subtracted 6g for those two turns in my initial gpt calcs (see above). Pretty sure it's correct. In the spoilers I do the same thing, written as +14gpt for those 2t.

Spoiler :

T66
9g reserves
448b-274b=+174b needed

T67-68 0% slider @ +14gpt, +1bpt
T69-73 100% @ -5gpt, +25bpt
T74-75 100% @ -6gpt, +31bpt (Fish pop2 working 1f2c)

Totals:
9g+28g-25g-12g=0g
274b+2b+125b+62b=463b > 448b

And yes, I'm assuming a T73 library, not slowing it down. Someone else can do those calculations. I don't see any reason to slow the library down.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Ok, I get it, slow the library down for the spy overflow?
T73 library done +5hOF
T75 chariot done +1hOF
T78 spy done +0hOF

or to work more food
T73 library done +2hOF (working 1 farm for 1t)
T74 9h in warrior (working 2 farms)
T75 warrior done +1hOF (working 2 farms)
T78 spy done (working all mines)

 

[LowtherCastle]

Spy Missions -- Version 2.0
T75 Finish Alpha
T78 SpyRome born, revolt to Hindu?
T80 SpyHC born
T81 SpyRo Spread Culture Mission (2ep), SpyHC moves in
T83 SpyHC SabProd/Bldg (if necessary), SpyRo moves in
T85 SpyRo Steal Myst (42eps)
T87 SpyHC Steal Medit (67eps)
T89 SpyRo Steal PH (cheap)
T91 Great Spy mission, SpyRo Steal Monarchy (147eps)

Still to steal: Sailing, BW, IW

1. We could build more spies, but above works well with only two, allowing max odds of success because spy is alone and has sat for at least 1 turn.
2. If necessary, Sabotage Prod/Bldg before Spread Culture.
3. Revolt to Hinduism. Rome is likely to get Hindu on T76 or T77. Revolt on T78 after Rome spy is born doesn't delay spy missions. Costs 2-4 food. Worth it?

 

[WastinTime]

3. Revolt to Hinduism. Rome is likely to get Hindu on T76 or T77. Revolt on T78 after Rome spy is born doesn't delay spy missions. Costs 2-4 food. Worth it?

It can only be worth it if hindu is in DaGift.
I think it's worth just for the happy and will steal mono and run Orgrel eventually

But you keep saying Medit.
Assuming Darius will have Poly, let's get that instead.
1. we can't get Mono without it.
2. We can't build parthenon

 

[Pollina]

1. We could build more spies, but above works well with only two, allowing max odds of success because spy is alone and has sat for at least 1 turn.
2. If necessary, Sabotage Prod/Bldg before Spread Culture.
3. Revolt to Hinduism. Rome is likely to get Hindu on T76 or T77. Revolt on T78 after Rome spy is born doesn't delay spy missions. Costs 2-4 food. Worth it?

Revolt into Hindu delays the EP bomb until t92. Stealing Monarchy on t91 would cost 292 EP, so we wouldn't be able to afford it without running the EP slider.

When we're talking "max odds" we're talking about ~80% odds for stealing techs before the EP bomb. Darius is running his EP slider quite heavily, sadly. Should we plan for a backup spy? Is there even room for one before CowsCity is settled?

 

[LowtherCastle]

It can only be worth it if hindu is in DaGift.
I think it's worth just for the happy and will steal mono and run Orgrel eventually

But you keep saying Medit.
Assuming Darius will have Poly, let's get that instead.
1. we can't get Mono without it.
2. We can't build parthenon

I agree Hindu revolt itself is worth it. My question is, is it worth it to delay the revolt 1t or 2t, costing Rome 3f or 6f with 6th citizen working a farm (I wrongly said 2f or 4f above), in order to get the Rome spy moving 1t sooner?

The HC spy only takes 1t longer to build but is needed 2t later (knock on wood), so the revolt in between those two completions is perfect timing.

Yes, Poly is also good. I'm assuming Darius won't have it, since he's Buddhist and can't trade for Poly. Medit gives us a monastery build for our 6th building. OrgRel would be good to revolt to together with HeredRule. Hm...another confounded trade-off... Would it be worth it to steal Poly, if possible, and tech Mono before stealing Monarchy?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Revolt into Hindu delays the EP bomb until t92. Stealing Monarchy on t91 would cost 292 EP, so we wouldn't be able to afford it without running the EP slider.

When we're talking "max odds" we're talking about ~80% odds for stealing techs before the EP bomb. Darius is running his EP slider quite heavily, sadly. Should we plan for a backup spy? Is there even room for one before CowsCity is settled?

Right and right. Totally spaced the crappy odds before the bomb. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

So the only advantage to earlier stealing is possibly getting by with fewer spies. If we waited till T92 to steal multiple techs, we'd still need to build several spies, right? Are the spread culture and sabprod/bldg missions likewise worse odds pre-bomb? Spy capture is the one serious drawback of espionage teching.

Backup spy before Cows? Getting to be above my pay grade, all this optimization.

 

[LowtherCastle]

According to the test game, an AI archer costs 21h and monument 26h. With DaGift at 9h on T66, the archer should complete on T72, if that's the build. If so, the monument would complete on T85, so we'll have two chances to sabotage the production. Probably we should attempt that before the spread culture, right? Just in case.

 

[Pollina]

mission odds

before EP bomb:
steal tech: 81% (62% with multiple spies on tile)
destroy building: 84% (67%)
spread culture/ sabotage production: 85% (70%)

after EP bomb:
steal tech: 96% (77%)
destroy building: 96% (80%)
spread culture/ sabotage production: 97% (82%)

 

[Pollina]

I agree Hindu revolt itself is worth it. My question is, is it worth it to delay the revolt 1t or 2t, costing Rome 3f or 6f with 6th citizen working a farm (I wrongly said 2f or 4f above), in order to get the Rome spy moving 1t sooner?

The HC spy only takes 1t longer to build but is needed 2t later (knock on wood), so the revolt in between those two completions is perfect timing.

I'd prefer to revolt into Hindu immediately. How do you get the t79 spy in HC? I can't build one until t80 (no revolt).

We can easily get a couple backup spies until t90. That should be good enough. The difference between 80% odds (pre-EP bomb) and 77% odds with multiple spies after the EP bomb isn't too big. It shouldn't matter too much when we get the backups, as long as we can get them in place until t91/t92.