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[BTS] SGOTM 25 - Phoenix Rising

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jan 13, 2018.

  1. elitetroops

    elitetroops Chieftain

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    16% sounds quite risky...

    What are we really risking there? How much would victory be delayed if we got a Scientist instead of GSpy? The GScientist would bulb paper and we can build UoS. According to my calculations, with one wonder more and one GSpy less we would be about 7000 culture short, or about 1300 EP. The delay would be equal to how long it takes us to generate that EP. At that stage we should be able to build wealth everywhere and hopefully keep slider up. Delay isn't that much... Maybe 4-5 turns? From a pure mathematical perspective, it does make sense to always make this gamble. (Winning on turn n 84% of the time and turn n+5 16% of the time gives a better average finish date than winning turn n+1 100% of the time.)
     
  2. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    I would be willing to take that risk, yup.
    Also cos then i would just re-work FV & Silky, and we could be ready.

    You can answer that question by looking at my PL micro, Gumbo.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  3. Gumbolt

    Gumbolt Phoenix Rising

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    So AP would go in cowabunga? That would need tao mish?
     
  4. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    Apologies, that PL 16% risk is not actually needed as FV cannot be so fast despite NE.

    It's only 7% for GS in PL.
     
  5. elitetroops

    elitetroops Chieftain

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    Absolutely go for that!
     
  6. Gumbolt

    Gumbolt Phoenix Rising

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    So where does this leave us plan wise. 2 weeks left now. Albeit that is 1-2 turns a day.

    Are we confident war wise here?
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  7. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    ..since nothing comes easy today, we are however shifting those 8% for GS over to FV ;)
    So 1x 7% chance of wrong GP, and 1x 8%.

    If we are fine with that, i can lay that horrible GP testing to rest.

    Yeps, those polluting specialists are hired in the last moments.
    We can still change our mind until turn 14.
    1 turn delay if all clean.

    Simple chain reaction, PL 1t later and FV as well, with Peking dropping some spies to allow them getting theirs first, and then needing that 1t longer.

    :)
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  8. elitetroops

    elitetroops Chieftain

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    85.6% - still better than the original 84% plan we already seemed fine with.

    Did you calculate how much would the final GP have to be delayed to get all at 100%?

    How soon does the actual polluting of GP pool happen? Say if we in 15 turns realize conquest takes longer than expected, can we still switch plans and do all GP at 100%?

    Okay, then I think we will make the final decision turn 14. By then we will have a much better idea of how the war is going. GP planning done for now, I'd say! And some very fine GP planning it is! :thumbsup:
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  9. Gumbolt

    Gumbolt Phoenix Rising

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    Just to clarify where have we moved the AP?
     
  10. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    Well..AP in PL.
    (this part sorted out)

    I have re-worked Peking, which was affected by no CS irrigation for Rice.
    Question, whipping wonders (besides AP) on t20 = fine, if we win in between 20 and 21?

    Okay, good on Peking with Sistine.
    PL has all hammers gathered for AP on t19, on t20 it's in there and vote happens on 20 too (tested), decision announced on t21 (our official winning turn, well maybe ;)).
    Fine?
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  11. elitetroops

    elitetroops Chieftain

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    Yes, whipping wonders t20 is fine. Whipping AP that late is not, we need to be elected resident. Not sure about AP timing, but if we whip t19, then election happens beginning of t20 and results are announced beginning of t21, right?

    Wonder timing is all fine!
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
  12. Gumbolt

    Gumbolt Phoenix Rising

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    Well once you end turn the wonders are built. They would have to be shown as built on the wonder screen. So when the victory screen shows up all wonder builds should be complete.

    So whipped T20. Built T21 once game has been won.

    I assume Ap vote is turn after it is built. Will vassels definately vote for us as resident. Guess it won't matter as we should be 100% once built.
     
  13. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018
  14. Gumbolt

    Gumbolt Phoenix Rising

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    44 successful missions to get 68k. We will now need 45. So 88 percent chance. So 56 as a minimum. See page 54 on here. Elite lost 3 from ending turn too.
     
  15. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    Fine tuning cities (some earlier done are not optimal, like Tokyo where i now moved CI).

    We can play on today probably, time for last thoughts on army movement and stuff like that.
    Would also appreciate estimates on how many settlers for vassaling, and how many Tao mishes for AP (not including legendary city + FV) we probably need.
     
  16. elitetroops

    elitetroops Chieftain

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    Just to keep the number correct, with current plan we need 46 successful spy missions.

    Settlers for vassaling should ideally be 0. This depends if they get to 4 cities or not and also on when we vassal them. If we only vassal them after our core cities are done building what they are supposed to build, then we can gift any 4 cities within range. If they don't get to 4 cities, we can gift them a bunch of European cities that we haven't captured yet.
     
  17. Gumbolt

    Gumbolt Phoenix Rising

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    So maybe 60 overall if spies get caught between turns?
     
  18. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    Cowa changed from Sword & HA (those units were too far behind imo, Sword was planned for Toku with CS steal) to 3 more Spies,
    we now have 57.

    I will have to look at Mumbai and Moscow still, for turns where a spy can be fit in.

    Meanwhile i would like opinions on this city, needed for Bomber attack on Istanbul (we are out of range currently with other cities?), and how soon we think it should be settled.
    Those forests could be used for Uni of Sankore.

    We want roads towards JC from Mumbai, but i am not sure if that island settler (on barb city isle) could get there in time.
    If not, settler from Moscow i think.
     

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    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018
  19. elitetroops

    elitetroops Chieftain

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    Ideally Moscow should focus on units, but getting Mehmed within range for bomber might be an issue. Roman city west of Istanbul is within range, but maybe plan was to attack Mehmed sooner?

    There is also chance he settles a 2nd city himself, but I doubt it would have time to grow to pop 2. He grew 5->6 some 4-6 turns ago, doesn't have much hammers invested now. It's pretty certain he doesn't have a settler out yet.

    If Mehmed only has archers and perhaps one LB, maybe we can take him without bomber support? Not on hill, he's not protective or anything. Bomber will be very busy no matter what. I actually doubt we have time to use it for all cities if we plan to finish this in 20 turns.
     
  20. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    So far my war ideas are, getting ~2 HAs from Moscow + using 2-move Choko & chariots for Istanbul, if they are fast they can still be used for other AIs while our slower units move straight towards Biz (after St. Pete) and JC.

    An ideal timeline for Bomber would be St. Pete, and then Istanbul before it's needed on Biz.
    Longbow with good culture defense in Istanbul would imo be too strong without bomber support.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018

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