**Sigh** How severe will the advent of peak oil be?

[The Imp]

Yes, I know that the peak has probably already happened, and that the current economic downturn has masked the effects somewhat. However, when growth ramps up again, and the ceiling of oil production is hit by a line of growth(so to speak), how severe will the impact be to the world over the next 30 years?

Will the world(In my case the US) do one thing that is necessary, namely, begin to build nuke reactors at a rapid(and at a "safe") pace?

For the poorer nations of the world that are unable to do such a thing and/or are burdened by rampant overpopulation, how severe will the die off in those countries be?

Which countries will most likely be wracked by internal strife?

The possibility of war

etc.

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I would like to think that if the US were subjected to $5 a gallon gas(will just increase over time), that the government would invest a tremendous amount of money and energy into creating nuclear plants...

Thoughts?

 

[Cheetah]

Then we'll run out of Uranium in less then a century.

Hopefully Thorium plants will be operational within the next decade or two. That should buy us some more centuries, and make India an energy-super power.

Though with less energy (plus all the other nice things we are in for), expect lots of sad stories from the poorer areas of the world.

Oh, and for what it's worth, Norway had it's peak oil in 2001. Currently, the optimists over here hope natural gas can pick up the slack, but it's neither as easily transportable nor as profitable as crude oil.

 

[dwaxe]

My prediction is that the world will severely dial back on transportation costs thanks to the exorbitant cost of oil. I'm optimistic that we will survive without any deadly consequences.

Spoiler :

Nuclear Fusion FTW!

 

[The Imp]

Then we'll run out of Uranium in less then a century.

Hopefully Thorium plants will be operational within the next decade or two. That should buy us some more centuries, and make India an energy-super power.

Though with less energy (plus all the other nice things we are in for), expect lots of sad stories from the poorer areas of the world.

Oh, and for what it's worth, Norway had it's peak oil in 2001. Currently, the optimists over here hope natural gas can pick up the slack, but it's neither as easily transportable nor as profitable as crude oil.

I am not familiar with peak Uranium... I assume it is possible since Uranium is a finite resource. Regardless, nuclear power might buy some time for other forms of fuel to mature. If we can get an additional 30 lean years out of it, then perhaps a solution might arise.

 

[The Imp]

My prediction is that the world will severely dial back on transportation costs thanks to the exorbitant cost of oil. I'm optimistic that we will survive without any deadly consequences.

Spoiler :

Nuclear Fusion FTW!

... Oil isn't just used in cars. Our entire agricultural base is predicated on cheap oil. Rampant starvation in the less well off countries is inevitable.

 

[Mr. Dictator]

i know a guy who routinely swears oil is a natural result of the "internal combustion that takes place at the earth's core"

then again, his livelihood depends on it, and i'd pity him were he not mind-numbingly stupid at times.

 

[The Imp]

i know a guy who routinely swears oil is a natural result of the "internal combustion that takes place at the earth's core"

then again, his livelihood depends on it, and i'd pity him were he not mind-numbingly stupid at times.

The line between willing delusion and stupidity is a slim one, but a line exists nevertheless. 'course, I don't know this guy, lol.

 

[GenMarshall]

Peak oil is not going to be a reality. It's just a bunch of hot air.

 

[Huayna Capac357]

Well the issue is not if, but when, as oil is a finite resource. You can't say that peak oil will never happen.

 

[MeteorPunch]

Our energy supply is pretty much infinite, it's just a matter taking the time to build structures to harness it. I'd say it's one of the least of our worries.

Renewable energy is energy which comes from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable (naturally replenished). In 2008, about 19% of global final energy consumption came from renewables...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy

 

[Cutlass]

It just means that the price goes way up. Not that we suddenly run out. And then we start using other things in its place.

 

[stuge]

Oil gets rarer->costs of extraction rise->oil prices rise->incentive to adopt other power sources->need for oil goes down etc. This is how it should go in theory.

At the moment almost everything in our lives is hugely dependent on oil. "Everything in life is somewhere else, and you get there in a car." Options for alternative long-distance transport, for example:

-Ethanol fueled trucks
-Nuclear powered ships
-Nuclear powered trains

These have their own problems. Ethanol is at odds with a rising world population, and nuclear energy is expensive. The latter will of course get cheaper as demand rises, but I'd think that a nuclear reactor powered ship is more expensive than one with a combustion engine no matter what.

So to me it seems that global transport will inevitably get much more expensive. Even if we manage to replace oil 100% as a energy source, movement of goods and people will be more difficult. Will the global economy of today survive? I think that it's important to start adapting to this issue before we are forced to. Thankfully renewables are on the rise.

 

[The Imp]

It just means that the price goes way up. Not that we suddenly run out. And then we start using other things in its place.

Addressing me with that comment?

 

[The Imp]

Oil gets rarer->costs of extraction rise->oil prices rise->incentive to adopt other power sources->need for oil goes down etc. This is how it should go in theory.

At the moment almost everything in our lives is hugely dependent on oil. "Everything in life is somewhere else, and you get there in a car." Options for alternative long-distance transport, for example:

-Ethanol fueled trucks
-Nuclear powered ships
-Nuclear powered trains

These have their own problems. Ethanol is at odds with a rising world population, and nuclear energy is expensive. The latter will of course get cheaper as demand rises, but I'd think that a nuclear reactor powered ship is more expensive than one with a combustion engine no matter what.

So to me it seems that global transport will inevitably get much more expensive. Even if we manage to replace oil 100% as a energy source, movement of goods and people will be more difficult. Will the global economy of today survive? I think that it's important to start adapting to this issue before we are forced to. Thankfully renewables are on the rise.

Perhaps if technology advances nuclear technology will become cheaper... but in a rubber meets the road scenario that takes place in the next couple years without much advancement, in which the government begins a crash program to build nuclear reactors, the price of nuclear energy would actually increase. Supply/demand and all.

 

[Cutlass]

Addressing me with that comment?

To the general OP. Peak Oil does not mean that oil on the market dries up all at once. What it means is that demand exceeds supply. When that happens, the price goes up. And then people substitute other things for it, and then typically the price fluctuates as the supply is increased by the higher price, and the demand is suppressed by the higher price. That's why oil prices are volatile. And it is that very volatility that has that has interfered with efforts to move away from oil dependence.

Substitutes for oil have high up front costs. The volatility of oil prices raises the risks of investments to replace oil failing. And that means that demand for oil keeps going up again. But that increase in price makes some marginal production profitable. Which means that oil supply is increased by the price.

And that means that while the trend is likely up in the long run, it will not be smoothly up. It will go up and down and up and down indefinitely.

And because of that, government should act to restrict demand. It's too disruptive otherwise.

 

[warpus]

Yes, I know that the peak has probably already happened, and that the current economic downturn has masked the effects somewhat. However, when growth ramps up again, and the ceiling of oil production is hit by a line of growth(so to speak), how severe will the impact be to the world over the next 30 years?

Will the world(In my case the US) do one thing that is necessary, namely, begin to build nuke reactors at a rapid(and at a "safe") pace?

For the poorer nations of the world that are unable to do such a thing and/or are burdened by rampant overpopulation, how severe will the die off in those countries be?

Which countries will most likely be wracked by internal strife?

The possibility of war

etc.

-------------

I would like to think that if the US were subjected to $5 a gallon gas(will just increase over time), that the government would invest a tremendous amount of money and energy into creating nuclear plants...

Thoughts?

No, we are pretty much screwed. Don't have any kids.

 

[Traitorfish]

Our energy supply is pretty much infinite, it's just a matter taking the time to build structures to harness it. I'd say it's one of the least of our worries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy

True enough. I'm always faintly baffled that, living in a world which is constantly, even aggressively throwing energy at us, we still find the need to go digging for it. It really is the pinnacle of short-sightedness.

 

[Bestbank Tiger]

It just means that the price goes way up. Not that we suddenly run out. And then we start using other things in its place.

Bingo.

And it won't be a massive, sudden price spike. As the "easy" oil disappears we start using the oil that's harder to get from the ground, and we pay more for it. As the price rises, more people switch to alternative forms of energy. It'll be a gradual transition.

 

[JerichoHill]

I think the concept here of peak oil is misunderstood

 

[Forty-Two]

It will be as it is today, because by the time we reach peak oil, alternative energy sources will be discovered.