Situation in Turkey

[dutchfire]

Turkey's currency took a nose dive the last few days, there's a diplomatic dispute over an American pastor in house arrest and apparently the US Congress is trying to kick Turkey out of the F35 program. What does the CFC commentariat think about all of this?

 

[Commodore]

I hope all this ultimately leads to their expulsion from NATO. I also hope it finally leads to the wider international community backing the Kurds and helping them not only take the land they claim, but the rest of Turkey as well since the Kurds have proven to be a much more trustworthy ally than the Turks.

That and I'm quite frankly just sick and tired of Erdogan and his corrupt government. I want to see him fall and fall hard.

 

[Zkribbler]

Paul Krugman points out that this a repeat of the Asia financial crisis of a few decades back:

Here’s the script: start with a country that, for whatever reason, became a favorite of foreign lenders, and experienced a large inflow of foreign capital over a number of years. Crucially, the debt thus incurred is denominated in foreign currency, not domestic (which is why the U.S., also a recipient of large inflows in the past, isn’t similarly vulnerable — we borrow in dollars).

At some point, however, the party comes to an end. It doesn’t matter much what causes a “sudden stop” in foreign lending: it could be domestic events, like appointing your son-in-law to oversee economic policy, it could be a rise in U.S. interest rates, it could be a crisis in another country investors see as being similar to you.

Whatever the shock, the crucial thing is that foreign debt has made your economy vulnerable to a death spiral. Loss of confidence causes your currency to drop; this makes it harder to repay debts in foreign currency; this hurts the real economy and further reduces confidence, leading to a further decline in your currency; and so on.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/opinion/partying-like-its-1998.html

 

[Hrothbern]

IDK what the final USD 717 Billion NDAA bill signed by Trump yesterday outlines precisely for Turkey.
But the concept that passed the Senate committee in May this year excluded Turkey from getting F35's and on top sanctions if Turkey would continue to purchase the Russian S400 missile system.
In May also a lot of vocal pressure from Turkey towards that Senate committee not to pass it.

So with enough time in between for compromises, it is clear that Erdogan continues his policy for an independent geopolitical position. Having several cakes, eating several cakes.
Or more likely: ending up with crumbs in isolation.

 

[Hrothbern]

Paul Krugman points out that this a repeat of the Asia financial crisis of a few decades back:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/opinion/partying-like-its-1998.html

yes
This Turkey issue also causing a wave of reviewing loans to other emerging countries.
South America will be hit to some or some more extent by this lower trust in emerging countries. India as well.
And when air is released some banks and richer countries will be hit as well. Spain has a lot of loans outstanding in Turkey and South America.

 

[FriendlyFire]

I hope all this ultimately leads to their expulsion from NATO. I also hope it finally leads to the wider international community backing the Kurds and helping them not only take the land they claim, but the rest of Turkey as well since the Kurds have proven to be a much more trustworthy ally than the Turks. That and I'm quite frankly just sick and tired of Erdogan and his corrupt government. I want to see him fall and fall hard.

Well the last two Turkish Military coups occured during an Economic collapse
As for the Kurdish question, its the middle east best so let Kurd have their own country with borders drawn on ethnic lines unless the US wants to be drawn into another war in Asia (minor) though it would take a major crisis for this senario.
Its odd that Turkish economic golden age is thanks to Turkish pro-western Liberals and yet Edogane seems intent on dismantling it.

 

[EgonSpengler]

Last week Turkey announced it would not abide by the US sanctions on Iran, and will continue buying oil and natural gas from them. You don't need to be a genius to see the sides lining up here.

 

[NovaKart]

Maybe supporting Iraqi Kurds but if America supported Kurds in Turkey for independence that would lead to a disastrous conflict. I mean, it’s bad enough already but would get a lot worse.

 

[red_elk]

Looks like Lavrov came there just in time, patting them on the back and proposing to discuss Idlib offensive in Syria.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us...h-fm-says-after-meeting-russias-lavrov-135779

 

[Commodore]

Last week Turkey announced it would not abide by the US sanctions on Iran, and will continue buying oil and natural gas from them. You don't need to be a genius to see the sides lining up here.

Exactly. Regardless of how one may feel about Trump reimposing sanctions on Iran, Turkey openly stating it is going to ignore those sanctions is basically Turkey spitting on their alliance with us. Allies are supposed to stick together and show a united front to the rest of the world. Turkey has now demonstrated they are unwilling to do this, which should force us to reevaluate our relationship with Turkey and seriously ask ourselves if Turkey is really a nation we want to count among our friends. The European members of NATO should do the same as well since Erdogan has shown quite a bit of hostility towards them as well in recent years, especially towards Germany.

 

[r16]

typically not a clue . Fake economy needs an adjustment , a fake crisis handles a 20% fall of the Lira and immediately gets on a correction path when the journo who would prosper under Goebbels hints the dear hostage Missionary Brunson will be discovered to have suffered greatly from a mental aspect and the dollar falls from ~7 liras to 6.3 . Merkel rushes to save New Turkey , proving once again that calling her and Germany Nazis is a great business strategy . Russian Foreign Minister comes and saves 2 dear hostage Greek troops as well . You know , there is this decisiion that the parade in front of the Kremlin will not involve Modern Armour , 24/16/3 , because it would be insulting or whatever , absolutely no Leopards as well , so we are now cloning Type 74 of the Japanese in its hundreds , even looks like home products . And because it's on the upswing , New Turkey that's , ı get referenced once again on TV .

is quarterback a term in strategic discussion ? Apparently the guy that calls those unintelligible numbers in that American game which is surely not Football ? See , one of the guys cornering his otherwise close friend to "confess" New Turkey is a regional quarterback that decides what will happen in the Middle East , laughing with his other friend that there are those who can't keep control of their wifes .

yes , this post was not influential at all . And my bad , it seems it was an UN treaty that banned tear gas in 1993 . Don't know how ı read it that way ...

Spoiler :

big picture . Supposed to be important ; reportedly helps a big deal , goes a long way and ı had downloaded 4 , like two random and one Hoth with one Endor ...


"Rebels could have easily won the battle for Hoth. The battle is – at its heart – a classic defensive scenario. And with the addition of just a little common sense, some overlays, application of the warfighting functions, and a dash of combat engineer acumen, the engagement could have been a complete and total Rebel victory.

you know , because of the nerd market Lucasarts does a fancy book or two hundred and there's a map which certainly didn't exist in 78 or 79 when people were like deployed to Norway . According to this there is only one approach to Echo Base and the Rebel Command utterly fails to do essential preparation of the battlefield . Trenches without barbed wire . No minefields , pits with stakes , punji sticks with lightsabers . So , if Rebels can do all that , why can't Imperials scan them , with all that 17 meters of an AT-AT height and blow them up or skirt or jump over ? Indeed , they can , but then the movie would last 5.5 hours and who would want to sit that long in the theater ? ı might have tried as some 11 years old in '82 or now , but ı am a known idiot , right ?


see , big picture . George Lucas bet his entire worth of finances on the movie and stop motion costs some utter amount of effort and money and whatnot , there is obviously a reason why Lucas like invented CGI afterall . So , 5 or 7 AT-ATs , with no second echelon , no dismounts of Snow Troopers , now that the Jawa Sand Crawler of the first movie made George Lucas a real target of the Libyan Intelligence Service , because in the Sahara a 400 tonner makes real sense , no aircover of TIEs under the planetary shield or whatever , because that would call for X-Wing intervention and X-Wing is supposed to ever win and if X-Wings win Hoth , how on earth George Lucas is supposed to film the escape that lights the fire and starts the love between Han and Leia ?

"However, the Rebels decided that their only defenses were to be a few short lines of trenches backed by heavy weapons systems. Because they had committed themselves to a linear defense, they lost any ability to maneuver in the face of the enemy. They also allowed themselves to fall victim to the enemy’s primary forward-facing weapons on the AT-ATs. By neglecting to build any type of flanking positions, the Rebels lost their chance strike the Imperial armor from the sides and back, where it was the weakest" , says who ? American staff typically projecting their views on others , but obviously it's pretty endemic everywhere . There is whole footage of AT-ATs being fired from the sides and nothing happening . Well , there is obviously one other guy on the web , who is not r16 and the like , that ponders on the walkers . The fall with the legs tied shorts whatever it shorts and still it's a god damned frontal shot that blows one up . 'Cause there is the whole Executor case from the next movie , where the combined firepower of the Rebel Fleet on the hull that weakens the shields up to the point ray defence for the bridge still exists but not enough material deflection -and no time to close down the armoured shutters which reportedly exist (at least) in fan-fiction . Distributing the limited amount of ground weaponry would make no good and obviously airspeeders would avoid attacking into the teeth of Imperial firepower if they could . With 25000 years of Interstellar travel in that Galaxy , Snowspeeder guys would surely deduce a T-55 has far thinner armour to the rear , just like A-10 pilots and bazooka men regularly do ?


and the date 2017 surely impresses that paid Disney goons are not that rare . Luke Supremacy , man , he ain't no , wait : "Skywalker – who had gained notoriety for his destruction of the Death Star – was not a trained airspace coordinator. Nor was he an able squadron leader. His assault with snow speeders was right over the top of the forces he was supporting and straight into the guns of the enemy armor. Had he begun his approach over either the left or right ridgeline, Skywalker could have engaged the enemy armor in their vulnerable flanks and rear while keeping his ships out of the limited fan of fire that characterizes the AT-AT. What could have been an effective sortie ended instead in the loss of all ships after only destroying two AT-ATs. Commander Skywalker’s sortie did delay the Imperial attack somewhat, but barely made a scratch in it.

Yeah , exactly . Man , Rebellion needs some Earth Warriors , those who killed goats by staring at them in Reagan's America , but only for the lightsaber work , average GI would do entirely good for the rest . If blowing up the shield generators is all an AT-AT is required to do and if it carries it own armour and the like , it needs its weapons up front . And the second AT-AT blown up is why Luke must go to Dagobah , you know , instead of attending the proper US Army training course for airspace whatevers . For he must become a Jedi . Now that lacking the proven AH-64 / Hellfire combo , the Rebels can not fight the Empire on the ground . Also paying homage to Tolkien and the Lord of the Rings , Orlando Bloom and olephaunts before Minas Tirith. Poor Rebels certainly lack the Oathbreakers , right ?

and , what's a retrograde ? What happened to retreats , are they a cuss word now ?

onto Endor . Big picture says it would be Kashyyk . While there is apparently a limit to like 7 feet guys to be Chewbaccas , ı understand there was some preparation to enlist some highschoolers and the like to maintain the size ratio as there should be no problem to get enough numbers of 6 foot 6s in the US to don the Wookiee garb and gear . Some smoke and mirrors and no issues . Apart from Lucas getting leary of a love for Spacenazis and some premonition that some nerd would discover if Han and Luke were Americans and Wookies did an equal amount of work in demolishing Nazis , why , all the Russians were hairy apes . Plus , like a desire to keep to his own convictions and the like that Victor Charlie was a little guy fighting for home with so little means . Well , still mostly true , them Vietcongs .


right from the get go , it starts raining on the Rebels . We learn they lack qualified intelligence analysts on par with the Americans who said ISIL would fight for the next 30 years and they could only be defeated by Kurdish proxies . Oh , ı know well enough that they are still out there . "Neither the Rebels nor the Imperials had the knowledge that would eventually decide the engagement: that the forest moon of Endor was inhabited by Ewoks. The detachment of Imperial scout troopers on the forest moon should have gathered that information had they established LP/OPs, but they never dismounted their speeder bikes during patrols." Rebels , certainly but Imperials ? Once again , Endor is not a trap to destroy the Rebellion . Palpatine bodily arrives and places himself in great danger only make sure Rebellion will come out , and Luke to protect them all . Luke Skywalker is the only thing that matters ; once Darth Vader figures he can't bring Padme back , Sith or no Sith , with arcane rules and mysteries of the Force , like there will be hell . For what's the reason for Palpatine to keep fouling the air then ? Palpatine wants to break the duality of the Force and he needs a kinda dumber Skywalker to do away with Anakin still lurking . So , with basis of the Force from non-Christian beliefs and the like , the Ewoks are tolerated , because you know , Karma . In the all important issue of trapping Luke Skywalker , nothing on par with screams of burning Ewoks can be allowed to reach the pointy ears of Yoda , now that Luke is still wet behind his own . Hence , Ewoks prepare long for their battle with the invaders and no incursions to their prepared battlefield and this is Star Wars history , like from today . Unless of course American staffwork will prove it indisputably that tree dwelling one-meter tall stone age furry critters cut all that logs and assembled all the catapults in the 15 minutes between one hijacking a speeder bike and the Rebellion operation was caught and all the captives were lined outside and the Ewok assault began .


The Rebels divided their force into three elements. Admiral Ackbar commanded the fixing force, composed of the capital ships of the fleet whose mission was to bring the Imperial fleet into engagement and provide cover for the starfighter attack. The assault force was a small special operations detachment commanded by General Han Solo, which would infiltrate the forest moon, seize the shield generator, and disable it to allow for follow-on operations. This would then permit the exploitation force of General Lando Calrissian’s starfighter squadrons to penetrate the Imperial defenses around the Death Star II and deliver the decisive blow that would destroy the enemy’s center of gravity.

not at all , or something . Shield taken out , Starfighters attack , Fleet to fight one or two Stardestroyers that might show up to help , Palpatine would certainly call for help if he saw he was surprised . By mass , if nothing else , covering the Death Star , preventing the shuttle of the Emperor to jump to Hyperspace , blocking of the Rebels at Scariff in a Rouge One like . The Fleet would have never deployed if they knew there would be anything like equal numbers of Star Destroyers . Strictly movie reasons , Palpatine destroys one ship at a time to anger Luke , while the Imperial Fleet would have done the same equally well . Luke can not extend his hand to smash one hull against another and he would only sob if it was the Star Destroyers , but he sure can grab the lightsaber .

in 2018 how can one claim the mission was at risk , after the command team was dispersed to the winds ? With apparently a white haired clone amongst the Rebel Commandos who were investing the position all the same ? Ewoks are a bonus , for the audience needs to see Leia Organa doing something , because it's surely not feminist or something to let her sit at home as soon as she has found an husband , and she needs to become damsel in distress as Luke can not simply commit suicide . Ugly but on par with what them two Skywalkers did to Kylo Ren on Crait or whatever , that planet of edible salt . Leia with presumed Jedi powers , down on the moon of Endor , instead of the other side of the Galaxy with Yoda to hide her . And Lucas , however he might have wanted to do it that way or not , because of being raised on comics where the White Man rules all , has to elevate Ewoks from tam-tam playing savages who considered White Men as gods . Hence that biscuit to the spear wielding one . And like hell no to "although the Rebels were taking irreplaceable casualties, they managed to get their smaller ships inside the perimeter of the larger enemy frigates. It was this that permitted an A-Wing single place fighter to destroy the bridge of the Executor, which then lost control of its helm and crashed into the Death Star II. " That A-Wing was damaged itself and accidentally crashed into Executor which then crashed into Death Star and got simply burned up . Which is the sign of the power of the shield on Endor . With it on , Rebels could no nothing to Palpatine , the Imperial Fleet bodily stopped Rebels from escaping and swirling dogfights kept the Rebel pilots , obviously honourbound to their compatriots , from finding a gap and escaping . Luke might have kneeled and risen back as Darth Wart , but his education by Palpatine would have been faster with as few Rebels left as possible . There was nothing wrong with the Imperial plan and conduct until they wrapped up all the off-world rebels . 501(?) was then given clearance to conduct typical Alien stuff of the Empire . Forgetting the sequence of events here ı can't exactly say whether Palpatine had become aware of the Leia option and the massacre to come would test her anger , but it actually did the whole trick . With not much left to control the prisoners . Who then overpowered their captors . Time hallowed tradition ... Cüneyt Arkın , the guy who saved the world (in the Turkish Star Wars for those who don't speak the language) would shoot 3 arrows from one bow and bring down 3 guys widely seperated or something . Or jump up and down , but we were never shown the trampoline . Cüneyt Arkın overpowers whenever he is captured in a movie , this is the eternal truth of movies , good guys overpower the bad . Uh , when the Starfleet arrives , ı will have a fully authentic Civ Scenario where the Ottoman UU will be "Kara Murat" with a trampoline . So , ı can't exactly lampoon Lucas for the choice , right ? Shield falls , fighters knock out power generation and you know , there is still time for Anakin and Luke for some bonding . In real life , Star Destroyers would still massacre the Rebel Fleet but , dude , it's a movie . And as a bonus , didn't we all learn Vader has been diluting the 501th over the years , but having executed only one commander yet ?


but then ı understand when fan fictioning became a thing , the first adjustment to Endor was having the "moon" irridiated . (Like as already referenced in the thread.) You know , hypermatter just has to be the SW equivalent of nuclear power . Ah yes , the inevitable r16 ranting part , which will be totally in line with this post . Here , see the America's desired radiation seeder , at a time when George Lucas could get away with talking positively about the VC ... :

oh , it goes like this . Some person sees it on a modelling forum , arrives at an aviation forum where yours idiotly is post handicapped after making British industry unhappy . (God Bless me , too .) Last time ı checked nobody had a reason to declare it wasn't real in 1976 ... My post would then would mention somewhere on line , which incidentally wouldn't be too far to places around here . r16 and some former American NCO (apparently in the legal services) :




r16 : Fallujah .

NCO: Depleted Uranium rounds are too heavy. Apache can't take off with them.

r16 : A-10 was designed to carry 1350 of them ...

NCO: Depleted Uranium rounds are too heavy. Apache can't take off with them.

r16 : AH-64 has an ammuniton capacity of 1200 , it surely could lift 600 ?

NCO: Depleted Uranium rounds are too heavy. Apache can't take off with them.

r16 : 300 ?

NCO: Depleted Uranium rounds are too heavy. Apache can't take off with them.

which stems from the reportedly astronomic increases in birth defects in that Iraqi town . Which then stems from the defoilants , Agent Orange and all in Vietnam . Generally brave and reliable , NVA and VC are long reported to be afraid of the said , running out of their sanctuaries whenever deployed ; some magazine trawled from the web suggests USN blue water veterans of the said war will now be eligible for benefits in relation to the said material . Which then stems from WW II where Germans were regularly tough and Korea where the Red Chinese shook the racial beliefs of America to the core . Involving strange stuff on reportedly the very first USAF plane to be shot down in Vietnam was a transport plane deploying the said , or shall we say , a more potent version , and in those years no single plane was again shot down deploying the said . Americans always insist their hands were tied against the Commies and ı have really read it somewhere that a particular USAF unit was using Tear Gas on their F-100s with glorious results . Commies running out of their hiding places to be mown down by other weapons . Then suits from the State Department arrived , said the unit was conducting Chemical Warfare and it would stop . Not only that , but they came back . See , there is this Lavelle case . The Rolling Thunder campaign has ended , but America "has" the right to fly over North , conducting reconnaisance . And if fired upon , American planes will return fire . Turns out there have been cases where Gen. Lavelle has ordered strikes , claiming planes were engaged when they were not . Not really , Pentagon orders them with President's consent and Lavelle falls on his sword , because the political situation in the US is shaky and there has to be something . See , soldiering might involve sacrifices other than dying for the country . But that F-100 unit knows better , no chain of command and the like and State Department has to come back that the Russians are tipping the Vietnamese on who should be immediately executed on capture , which then becomes an incentive for that unit to follow the orders of their superior commanders .


one is certainly surprised to read that the harmless Tear Gas was banned as a weapon or at least America signed the dotted line in 1971 . You know , during the reign of almighty Nixon who would soon show them Commies who the boss was .

when DU is used , it fills the target tank with a little radiation that prohibits its quick repair by the evil Russians , who have 150 000 tanks to invade the truly Democratic and Free Europe which is protected by a mere 15 US Army tanks . If the A-10 gets Tungsten rounds , America will have to deploy Neutron bombs instead . One is certainly surprised to read that fusion bombs are actually far worse polluters compared to fission ones , because everybody wraps them with a second fission stage anyhow ...



once passing the threshold of why the GAU-8 must have DU and DU is like limited to tank killing , A-10s and the tanks and the Avenger gun becomes an item , why , USAF starts ranting on the A-10 . Which is kinda slow . Hence vulnerable to hostile planes . Not in WW III , in which America will instantly go totally nuclear without blinking an eye . But in limited wars , say against Iraq , a Commie state that like stopped the Israelis before Damascus . Say , Desert Storm ? Totally wrong , with the inflation and Public antipathy eating Pentagon budgets . The Iraq war of 1980s might see as few as 200 American planes in theater , not 2000s of 1991 . Then , one needs a GAU-8 carrier that can live in the air ... If Russian "volunteers" arrive , they might hit some A-10s , but , man , this is an F-16 , or whatever . And it actually doesn't need to kill any Iraqi tanks , just fill the area with Undepleted Uranium and let the Iraqis watch their kids born with three arms , the extra between the shoulders . And call any UN inspector in the pocket of Communism . You wouldn't believe how many times yours idiotly was lectured about Felluce .



on topic because there seems to be a new fad in town and ı have been pushing for war with America in which this country would have been defeated and people who hate me would have gotten what they asked for . On topic because it's simply the probability of survival for a snowball in hell that George Lucas would have been talking about being inspired by the good Commie Vietnamese in writing VII-IX by 1984 in Reagan's America , irregardless of family issues and all that . We all saw what happened with prequels , even if it was still Clintons when the writing and filming began . Even without 9/11 and the glorious account of 6 months the CIA supposedly tried to brief the White House and it was turned down , there is still the Embassy Bombings and even Somalia . It's a fact , if no believing in that watch how the global SW community has thrown a spat and refused to see Han Solo , because some guys had the nerve to question what the hell Abrams was doing to Star Wars . nuTrek , why , Abrams says he knows nothing about Star Trek , but he is a diehard Star Wars fan , right ?

edit : one spelling mistake corrected

 

[r16]

Maybe supporting Iraqi Kurds but if America supported Kurds in Turkey for independence that would lead to a disastrous conflict. I mean, it’s bad enough already but would get a lot worse.

what happened to 2014 ? Is Trump bad while Obama was good ?

Its odd that Turkish economic golden age is thanks to Turkish pro-western Liberals and yet ...

upward to 20 times more credits ( according to some calculations ) so that Joe Public would not consider the destruction of the Republic as a loss . Easy credit ends , everything tumbles , wait , Merkel does not want to face the music , hence despite being called a Nazi , she intervenes . As much as the Italians and with consideration of the losses , ı won't actually delve on the American face saving that will surely be invented out of HAARP and the fall of that bridge , despite no actual real connection , too .

I hope all this ultimately leads to their expulsion from NATO. I also hope it finally leads to the wider international community backing the Kurds and helping them not only take the land they claim, but the rest of Turkey as well since the Kurds have proven to be a much more trustworthy ally than the Turks.

ah , ı have a lovely spoiler for you and fully on topic , too . Shows the quality of management you people used to have , which has done so greatly inhibit the progress of the Kurds . And like God's Work .

USD 717 Billion NDAA bill signed by Trump [excludes] Turkey from getting F35's and on top sanctions if Turkey would continue to purchase the Russian S400 missile system.

it stops deliveries of the planes , which were to stay in the US until November 2019 for training anyhow . 1/8 White Wabbit , Mattis will soon write a report on telling how as a Marine he was taught of the operations of the North Star in Korea , that Turkish brigade that got butchered in Kunu-ri and yes , we are allies and whatever . Within 60 days ı believe .

 

[Hrothbern]

it stops deliveries of the planes , which were to stay in the US for 2019 for training anyhow . 1/8 White Wabbit , Mattis will soon write a report on telling how as a Marine he was taught of the operations of the North Star in Korea , that Turkish brigade that got butchered in Kunu-ri and yes , we are allies and whatever . Within 60 days ı believe .

I respect that brigade and the Turkish support in North Korea at that time.
We are however now threequarter of a century further in time.
Things have changed
If I believe the Pew report linked here http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/37/country/224/
Around 20-25% of the Turkish people have a favorable opinion on the NATO, and roughly 20% a favorable opinion on the US. Merkel, also as proxy for the EU, scoring low as well, despite so much economical benefits.
In general, as you can check by using that Pew link, Turkish people have a low trust in anything outside their borders (compared to many other countries), but China and Russia score higher than the NATO, the US and the EU !.
One could argue that Turkish people, with so many conspiracy thinking, distrust almost everything, but if you use that same Pew link, you can also ask how much the people believe in their own economy and in how far they believe that their children will be better of than themselves. And here Turkey scores high, despite a growing erosion in the last couple of years. Erdogan can block foreign info, but everyone in Turkey is feeling since years what is happening in their day to day business.
I think that Turkish people are both very capable of pragmatic opportunism and finding always some solution.... a healthy optimism in most cases
But it is since years now biting the hands that feed them and flirting with everybody else.

I think that the credits of that brigade are long gone over time, and also that the credits of Erdogan, build up in Istanbul and his first years of financial stability and growth are waning. Domestically and towards the anonymous global investors.
What's left is the refugees deal with the EU and the geographic position for the NATO.
That is not strong enough a hand for the game Erdogan is playing since years.
As an able demagogue he should have guided his people to a more friendly attitude towards the old friends, but he choose not to do that but to give in to sentiments and glory.
I think by now he is in the self preservation mode of a strongman with no healthy perspectives left.
Even if he would U-turn towards the US and the NATO..... who is going to believe that as something reliable ?

 

[ori]

Exactly. Regardless of how one may feel about Trump reimposing sanctions on Iran, Turkey openly stating it is going to ignore those sanctions is basically Turkey spitting on their alliance with us. Allies are supposed to stick together and show a united front to the rest of the world. Turkey has now demonstrated they are unwilling to do this, which should force us to reevaluate our relationship with Turkey and seriously ask ourselves if Turkey is really a nation we want to count among our friends. The European members of NATO should do the same as well since Erdogan has shown quite a bit of hostility towards them as well in recent years, especially towards Germany.

Actually with regards to Iran it is solely the US that is splitting the alliance with a stance that is contrary to the expressed position of every other alliance partner and it is not solely Turkey that openly states it is set to ignore the unilateral decision by the US - if splitting the allaince is a true argument it is not aimed at Turkey in this instance (or aimed at all EU NATO members at the same time).

That said: yeah Turkey has made the decision to move towards other alliances and there are good reasons to reevaluate the relationships with Turkey.

 

[Commodore]

Actually with regards to Iran it is solely the US that is splitting the alliance with a stance that is contrary to the expressed position of every other alliance partner and it is not solely Turkey that openly states it is set to ignore the unilateral decision by the US - if splitting the allaince is a true argument it is not aimed at Turkey in this instance (or aimed at all EU NATO members at the same time).

Like it or not though, the US is generally regarded as the "leader" of NATO so how we go should generally be how the rest of the alliance goes as well. Or, at the very least, they should not be openly expressing opposition. Even the US follows the general protocol of not publicly opposing your allies. Especially in regards to Turkey. We still refuse to call the Armenian Genocide an actual genocide out of respect for our alliance with Turkey and even when Erdogan has done some of his more terrible actions (like the fake coup to purge political opponents), the US has refused to outright condemn his administration out of respect for our alliance.

So if Turkey wants to still deal with Iran, fine. That's their right as a sovereign nation. However, they shouldn't be shouting it to anyone who will listen and rubbing it in the US's face. Doing so shows they have no respect for our long-standing alliance and really are not at all committed to maintaining a positive relationship with the US.

That said: yeah Turkey has made the decision to move towards other alliances and there are good reasons to reevaluate the relationships with Turkey

Yeah. Personally, I wouldn't be at all opposed to expelling Turkey from NATO and maybe finally formally offer membership to Ukraine. Israel might also be a good candidate for NATO membership. At least from a US perspective. I know Europeans tend to have some mixed views on Israel.

 

[ori]

so NATO is not actually an alliance after all? If the US as the "leader" decides all others are supposed to follow? This is not actually the world we live in, fortunately - the US is not actually the despot of NATO but rather one of its members with arguably more influence than some others - but the very idea that what the US says is what everyone else is supposed to follow and the articulation of such an idea is precisely what is splitting and in fact destroying alliances, not the fact that every single other alliance partner is in opposition to the US on this point.

If the US is interested only in alliances in which its decisions are the final thought on matters it will be isolated mightily quickly, there just aren't enough countries around that are willing to do so- especially so with a US government that has shown quite freely during the past one and a half years that whatever promises it makes with regards to other countries it will not honor them - so the claim then is that the US gets to decide for others without anything in return. Seriously if that is the thought of even a fraction of the US policy makers they are utterly delusional.

 

[red_elk]

USA has been supporting the Kurds for years and gives asylum to the people who are considered criminals by the Turkish government.
It's quite clear that the US wants Turkey to comply to their will, but if you are going to ignore their interests you shouldn't call them friends or allies. There is another word for it.

 

[Cutlass]

Exactly. Regardless of how one may feel about Trump reimposing sanctions on Iran, Turkey openly stating it is going to ignore those sanctions is basically Turkey spitting on their alliance with us. Allies are supposed to stick together and show a united front to the rest of the world. Turkey has now demonstrated they are unwilling to do this, which should force us to reevaluate our relationship with Turkey and seriously ask ourselves if Turkey is really a nation we want to count among our friends. The European members of NATO should do the same as well since Erdogan has shown quite a bit of hostility towards them as well in recent years, especially towards Germany.

This is exactly wrong. Trump stabbed our allies in the back. And now he wants our allies to completely ignore their own nation's interests to serve his stupid temper tantrums. Even though Trump's actions are exactly opposed to the interests of the United States. So now Trump strengthens radical Islam further, leading to more death and destruction of American interests.

Nothing Traitor Trump does serves the US.

 

[innonimatu]

Turkey's currency took a nose dive the last few days, there's a diplomatic dispute over an American pastor in house arrest and apparently the US Congress is trying to kick Turkey out of the F35 program. What does the CFC commentariat think about all of this?

Getting out of the F35 is a win for Turkey.

yes
This Turkey issue also causing a wave of reviewing loans to other emerging countries.
South America will be hit to some or some more extent by this lower trust in emerging countries. India as well.
And when air is released some banks and richer countries will be hit as well. Spain has a lot of loans outstanding in Turkey and South America.

Indeed. It won't go well for the many countries that piled up debt denominated on dollars during the low interest rate period. Nor to some of the lenders. Though the IMF is at its job protecting the lenders in Argentina already...

Exactly. Regardless of how one may feel about Trump reimposing sanctions on Iran, Turkey openly stating it is going to ignore those sanctions is basically Turkey spitting on their alliance with us. Allies are supposed to stick together and show a united front to the rest of the world.

The US signed together with many of its allies a treaty, the JCPOA, confirmed lather in an unanimous UN Security Council resolution, committing to lifting the sanctions on Iran. Those allies invested in Iran based on that commitment. The US then unilaterally and admittedly without good cause tore apart that treaty and screwed its allies. Tell me, who is splitting the alliance?

so NATO is not actually an alliance after all? If the US as the "leader" decides all others are supposed to follow? This is not actually the world we live in, fortunately

Is is, actually.

If the US is interested only in alliances in which its decisions are the final thought on matters it will be isolated mightily quickly, there just aren't enough countries around that are willing to do so- especially so with a US government that has shown quite freely during the past one and a half years that whatever promises it makes with regards to other countries it will not honor them - so the claim then is that the US gets to decide for others without anything in return. Seriously if that is the thought of even a fraction of the US policy makers they are utterly delusional.

They have been willing for the past 70 years. They will remain willing for some more years because the cost of going openly against the Empire is high. But they will be going against it, that empire is past its prime. Will Turkey be the first to turn away? Possible. Erdogan is well set in power there and he has good reason to believe the US planned to have him assassinated in the failed coup last year. That is something one does not forget, and if being an ally gets repaid that way...
Turkey is not South Vietnam.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Like it or not though, the US is generally regarded as the "leader" of NATO so how we go should generally be how the rest of the alliance goes as well. Or, at the very least, they should not be openly expressing opposition. Even the US follows the general protocol of not publicly opposing your allies. Especially in regards to Turkey. We still refuse to call the Armenian Genocide an actual genocide out of respect for our alliance with Turkey and even when Erdogan has done some of his more terrible actions (like the fake coup to purge political opponents), the US has refused to outright condemn his administration out of respect for our alliance.

So if Turkey wants to still deal with Iran, fine. That's their right as a sovereign nation. However, they shouldn't be shouting it to anyone who will listen and rubbing it in the US's face. Doing so shows they have no respect for our long-standing alliance and really are not at all committed to maintaining a positive relationship with the US.

Yeah. Personally, I wouldn't be at all opposed to expelling Turkey from NATO and maybe finally formally offer membership to Ukraine. Israel might also be a good candidate for NATO membership. At least from a US perspective. I know Europeans tend to have some mixed views on Israel.

Taking into account Turkeys special location with one foot in the west and one foot in the middle east
The US already gave special considerations in order to get Turkey on board with NATO, in regards to the Cold war against the Soviets

Given that the EU is planning to not follow US lead on Iran sanctions, plus then the US has to consider Iraq which is also not backing the US sanctions
Isreal has territorial disputes so unless this is frozen like Turkey I dont see how Israel would be allowed to join, wouldnt that also upset most of the US allies in the middle east.

Anyways Turkey isnt exactly a big country, we'll see how this plays out.
But Iam not sure about Trump, hes gaslighting will have unforeseen consequences