1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking

Discussion in 'Team CivFanatics' started by YossarianLives, Jul 4, 2012.

  1. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2007
    Messages:
    5,663
    Location:
    Plovdiv, BG
    Very good analysis, Yossa.

    I think RB's army on the Poly front is minimal, but they sent it all towards CP.

    Those numbers will of course change once RB get to rifles. With Bistrita we are expecting RB to have like 50 rifles in 5 turns. Thats quite a lot, but the good thing is they will have hard time getting those together. And we must have pinch grenadiers by then.
     
  2. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

    Joined:
    May 26, 2012
    Messages:
    2,097
    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    When will they get Rifling? Their power is definitely contained while the best unit they can draft is muskets and for whipping they can only get cats and knights.

    Also, I just want to make clear that my power analysis was based very much on assumptions and estimates. For example, I didn't count any stables, but I'm sure they built tons for their war against the Germans that relied heavily on War Elephants. Also, as 2metra mentioned, it is very inaccurate that I just assumed 200k worth of units were in the fog on the Poly border, so they probably have a lot more units elsewhere that I didn't account for. Surely they don't have axes or longbows protecting all their core cities like I estimated, a lot of those are probably sitting empty. A bunch of power is probably tied up in units that were recently produced and are now making their ways to the various fronts.

    So anyways, take that analysis with a grain of salt. It was more for the purpose of giving us a general idea of how many power points are unaccounted for, and to start giving us an idea of how many units could be heading our way.
     
  3. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2007
    Messages:
    5,663
    Location:
    Plovdiv, BG
    So, we have 2 tasks for research and we need volunteer/s to make the research and/or tests and act as adviser on the matter.

    First is how AP acts. What periods between elections, what happens if the Pope decline to choose resolution, when Religion win vote can be called, how often, what can change the outcome of the vote, what exactly are the consequences of vetoing AP resolution, how long they are present, what impact them, etc, etc.

    Second is how Espionage bonuses are calculated. All the bonuses, how they are influenced, what we must do to get maximum for our efforts, etc, etc.
     
  4. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2007
    Messages:
    5,663
    Location:
    Plovdiv, BG
    Another one - Yossa, this one is for you - we need to know if CP or CivFR are building the Sistine. How we forgot we can tell what is built in other civs cities :( Ot4e asked me what we build in our capitol and this remind me about this option.
     
  5. talonschild

    talonschild Drive-By NESer

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Messages:
    1,951
    Location:
    Vancouver, BC, Canada
    AP votes come in the form "resident election, proposal, proposal, proposal, proposal", which then repeats. There's a ten-turn delay between votes whether the resident chose to propose anything or not, unless no proposal was available in which case there is only a one-turn delay.

    The owner is always a candidate for resident, regardless of religion. If a non-owner resident abandons the correct state religion, no proposals occur until the next resident election.

    Diplomatic (Religious) Victory
    Prerequisite: ALL Civs in the game must be Members (i.e. have at least one vote in the AP) and a single Civ cannot be supplying 75% or more of the vote.
    One of the candidates will be the Owner (even if that Civ is not running the AP Religion), the other candidate will be the Full Member (has the correct religion) with the most votes who is not the Owner. A Civ that is a Vassal is eligible for Victory.
    To pass, this proposal requires 75% of the vote and it cannot be Defied.

    It is a proposal like any other, and thus can come up every ten turns.


    Any Member can Defy most proposals (except for Diplomatic Victory and Resident Election). If the proposal would have passed had there been no Defiance then the Defier suffers three ramifications:

    1. He loses his Full Member status if he is currently a Full Member.
    2. He loses the +2 bonus from AP Religion Buildings he currently has and builds while in Defiance.
    3. His current cities with the AP Religion acquire Villain (5 unhappiness) status. New cities captured, founded or converted to the AP Religion after the Defiance vote has occurred do not acquire Villain status.

    In order to undo ramifications #1 and #2, the Civ must vote yes on a proposal (Resident Election excluded) and that proposal must pass. #3 lasts for 20 turns regardless of any other events.


    This guide tells us about pretty much anything AP-related. However, it is only current up to 3.17. We'd have to check changelogs to see if anything got changed between there and 3.19.
     
  6. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2002
    Messages:
    6,437
    Location:
    Czech Rep.
    ^^ seems to me pretty exhaustive...

    so basically we can influence only number of votes ot4e gets when voting (and of course if we would switch civfr out of AP religion the same applies...)

    if we spread AP religion we could probably get enough votes to block any resolution?
     
  7. talonschild

    talonschild Drive-By NESer

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Messages:
    1,951
    Location:
    Vancouver, BC, Canada
    Based on the premise that we, CP, CivFr, and Poly are all roughly the same size (if only because I can't be bothered to check the true sizes), even if we and Poly spread Buddhism to all our cities we won't get above 1/3 vote share together without either us changing religions or using a RSM. In short, we could block a Religious victory but would be powerless to stop anything else.

    I know I've seen "Election cancelled: Stop the fighting among our brothers in the faith" in-game before, but I haven't figured out why that happens yet. I suspect it's if two Full Members are at war.
     
  8. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

    Joined:
    May 26, 2012
    Messages:
    2,097
    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    Hey, sorry I've been so absent lately. Combination of rl being pretty busy right now and my attention being diverted by another game I'm playing. I should have some time today to look into your requests. However, I must warn you, that for some reason my numbers always came out wrong when it came to calculating hammer counts in foreign cities, so SilentConfusion and later Maga were doing all the math on this. I'll try again, but it'll have to wait until the game is back online so I can log in and take a look at the espionage numbers.
     
  9. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

    Joined:
    May 26, 2012
    Messages:
    2,097
    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    Awesome summary talonschild, thanks so much for posting that.

    Back when we were at war with CivFr and a resolution was proposed to stop the fighting, I checked out the voting percentages. At that time, CivFr had about 50% of the vote, CP had about 30%, and the remainder was spread around the other teams. Those are very rough estimates, but I definitely remember that between CivFr and CP, they could basically decide anything they wanted. Things might have changed since then, but my guess would be that CP's share of the votes has gone up, and the share spread amongst the non-Buddhist teams has dropped. It's going to take a really strong effort to take away the ability of those two teams to elect a winner. :(
     
  10. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

    Joined:
    May 26, 2012
    Messages:
    2,097
    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    There's some conflicting info out there on espionage, but here are some of the best resources I found:

    Complete Espionage Mission Cost Guide by Detektyw

    Mission Costs by Krikkitone

    Analysis of Espionage Economies by VirusMonster

    Spy Detection by Bhruic

    So, going over all the bonus modifiers:

    • Obviously the stationary spy bonus gives 10% bonus each turn, max is 50% at 5 turns
    • Having a trade route to the city gives a 20% bonus
    • If the city has our state religion, we have the Holy City, and the target civ is in a different religion, we get a 40% bonus
    • All of the above but the target civ is also in our religion, then we get a 25% bonus
    • If the city has our religion, target civ does not, but we don't have the Holy City, then we get a 15% bonus
    • Having culture in the city gives a bonus, but I don't quite understand how it works. VirusMonster explains it like this: "Multiply by (1 - (.5 * your culture) / (your culture + their culture)), then round down."
    • Having generated more espionage over time gives a bonus, as follows: "Multiply by (2x + y)/(x + 2y), where x is your espionage points and y is their espionage points"
    • Distance from our capital is a negative modifier. The further the city is from our capital, the more expensive the mission. I could not find how this is calculated, but a common example I saw is that a city that is very close to the capital would only have a 20% increase to the cost.
    • If the enemy has a security bureau or a spy in the city, that increases the cost of the mission by 50%
    • And of course, if the target runs counter-espionage against us, that has a negative modifier. Surprisingly, I could not locate the exact amount, but I believe I remember seeing that is a 100% penalty.

    These modifiers are multiplied. Here is a really good (but long) post by Coanda that breaks it down:

    Spoiler :


    And then the other important factor is how likely is our spy to get caught. Ultimately, this is somewhat random each turn that our spy is in enemy territory, but here are some things that can effect it:

    • Open Borders decreases the chance of being caught
    • Having more total espionage decreases the chance of being caught
    • If a spy is moving, it has a higher chance of being caught (lower chance for stationary spies)
    • If more than one of our spies is on the same enemy tile, it increases the chance of being caught
    • If they have a spy (or security bureau) on the tile our spy is on, it increases the chance of being caught
    • If they run a counter-espionage mission, it increases the chance that our spy is caught.

    In Bhruic's link, he gives a worst-case scenario example (spy is moving, lands on a tile with an enemy spy, no Open Borders, they have 3x more espy than us), where the spy has a 12.2% chance of getting caught. On the other hand, a best-case scenario example (stationary spy, no enemy spy, Open Borders, we have 3x more espy than them), gives our spy only a 0.6% chance of being caught.

    I know all of this was pretty basic, but hopefully it answered your questions, or guided you towards a link that might. Let me know if you have anything else you were looking for.
     
  11. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2007
    Messages:
    5,663
    Location:
    Plovdiv, BG
    Great job as always, thanks Yossa!
     

Share This Page