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Snap UK General Election

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Samson, Apr 18, 2017.

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  1. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Rags suck, but it is still pretty interesting that inner tory fighting caused them to turn on May literally within a day...



    Liking the DUP allies pics too. Insane and terrible :jesus:

    "May stays to stop march of Red Jezza" :lol:
     
  2. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    And now for something cool :)

     
  3. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    Precedents I remember are when Harold Wilson successfully held a general election
    (1966) to increase his majority, and Edward Heath tried that (1974) and failed.

    At the UK general election in 2010
    Conservatives = 306
    Liberal Democrats = 57
    Total for coalition 363

    The stated purpose of the coalition was to agree a budget to reduce the UK public sector deficit.

    It completely failed in this primary task.


    At the UK general election in 2017
    Conservatives = 318
    DUP = 10
    Total 328

    If the purpose is to negotiate a good comprehensive
    Brexit deal, it is very difficult to see how that can work.

    I suspect that the most that could be achieved is, even with clear
    objectives and the best will in the world, a short summary agreement.

    However neither the EU nor the UK governments have
    clear realistic objectives and good will is rapidly fading.

    I anticipate another UK general election before Christmas.

    If the conservative party has any sense, they would have
    Theresa May resign and recall good old David Cameron to
    stand for election as MP, party leader and Prime Minister.
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2017
  4. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Not the Cam again...
     
  5. really

    really Deity

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    I was randomly watching ITV for the exit poll and George Osborne was one of the commentators - he was trying very hard not to smile at his own parties misfortune.
     
  6. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    A 2017 December general election in the UK is unlikely to result in a significant majority for the conservatives.

    David Cameron is the best of a bad bunch, and he has a track record of running a coalition for five years.

    And arguably he performed better doing that, than when he had a small majority.

    And who else have the tories got that can fight a duel with the Corbynista?
     
  7. Gigaz

    Gigaz civoholic

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    If David Cameron wanted to get his hands dirty with Brexit, he could have just stayed in office. The general consensus seems to be that after May comes Boris Johnson.
     
  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Winter (election) is coming ;)
     
  9. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    I am not sure. Having argued for a Remain vote so hard, he likely thought that he was duty bound to step down. And he needed a break.


    Well this is the general concern.

    Boris could certainly give Jeremy a run for his money in debate, but his people, project and program leadership skills are debatable.
     
  10. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    Are we talking about the same guy, the one who started this whole referendum thing for populist reasons and was just incompetent enough to have it blows in his face ?
     
  11. Leoreth

    Leoreth 心の怪盗団 Moderator

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    I wouldn't mind Johnson becoming PM. Hard Brexit will blow up in the face of whoever leads the negotiations, so I'd prefer it to be someone actually responsible.

    On another point, what's going on with the Scottish Tories? They've had strong results and if my numbers are correct, they are collectively strong enough to hamstring May's fragile coalition. Scotland prefers soft Brexit with freedom of movement over "no deal is better than a bad deal" rhetoric, so that may put them at odds with the overall party line. To top if off, Ruth Davidson is gay and probably has little sympathy for the DUP and their political platform. I've already read rumours the Scottish Conservatives are considering splitting off from the rest of the party to put some distance between them.

    She has no where else to go ideologically or politically.

    She'd be the next person to be put at edge of the glass cliff that is Brexit.
     
  12. Manfred Belheim

    Manfred Belheim Mansplaining Fool

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    The Daily Mirror has always been a left wing paper and was never for May or the Conservatives anyway, so there's no "turning" there.
     
  13. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    Potential candidates identified so far in this thread for leader of the UK conservative party at the end of this year (2017) are:

    Theresa May
    David Cameron
    Amber Rudd
    Boris Johnson
    Ruth Davidson

    Any others? Am thinking we might start a poll.
     
  14. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    May's joint chiefs-of-staff have just resigned and finally my former MP has made a statement about how a hard Brexit would be a terrible idea. You still voted to pass Article 50 completely unamended and only now do you say that, you total coward.
     
  15. SMcM

    SMcM Emperor

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    So what you are saying is that the problem of inflation that is caused by currency-issuing will be countered by economic growth driven by investing in public services? Well, that is in part true, but the problem with that argument is that spending in public services is often not an economic investment; spending more on the NHS may be a good idea, but it won't offer any financial return, as it is not a driver of economic growth- one of the main things it is doing is prolonging the lives of OAPs that won't be contributing to the economy. Of course I don't say this because I think we should just abandon the elderly and leave them to die, or that more funding for the NHS is a bad idea, but to call such spending increases an 'investment' is misleading. Also, while spending on education is definitely a good example of something that can drive economic growth, for it to do so that money needs to be spent on the right things- Labour would likely end up putting money into all sorts of needless things, à la Gordon Brown.

    What we really need to do is generate a budget surplus, so we can more safely spend money on all of these things, and we can be in a secure place in case of another recession.

    David Cameron? Not only is he not in the least bit interested, and already given up his seat, but I don't think there is much of an appetite for him back either.[/QUOTE]
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2017
  16. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    The (European Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2017/9/pdfs/ukpga_20170009_en.pdf

    merely enabled the Prime Minister to send the EU the letter invoking Article 50.

    That UK Act of Parliament says nothing about a hard or soft (or medium boiled) exit.
     
  17. Flying Pig

    Flying Pig Utrinque Paratus

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    The government should not be running a budget surplus. By definition, if a government takes more out of the economy than it puts in, it is creating a deficit in the private sector. That money must, therefore, come either from people losing their savings or taking on debt. Neither of those are good things.

    EDIT: There's a third possibility - that the money is paid for by an export surplus, where the country takes in more money from exports than it spends on imports. While that's not necessarily a good thing either (exports are the work you do to pay for imports, which are the things you want), it's also not a realistic possibility for the UK.
     
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  18. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    Not only public services - public works as well. All spending in the economy, public and private, causes inflation. That's unavoidable. Modest and consistent inflation is healthy - certainly far preferable to no inflation at all, or to deflation. The trick with all investment, and this certainly includes private sector investment, is to trigger real economic growth to offset the inflation caused. When this doesn't happen in the private sector we call it a speculative bubble, and the danger from that appears to be far greater in developed countries than from Weimar-style hyperinflation due to government spending, which is generally a result of war, revolution, epidemic disease, or other severe supply-side shocks.

    Spending on NHS to keep people healthy is certainly an investment. But so is spending on mass transit, on affordable housing, education, and public works, and on green energy infrastructure (not an exhaustive list obviously). Heck even military spending is an investment, though I'm generally in favor of reducing military spending wherever possible.

    And who is to be the judge of what is 'needless'? You?

    As Flying Pig has pointed out, for the government to run a surplus the private sector must run a deficit - this is, to put it mildly, not good for the economy. The only time it is appropriate to run a surplus is if the economy is too "hot" (ie, resources are fully employed but spending is still taking place), to siphon money out of the private sector and reduce inflation.
     
  19. Leoreth

    Leoreth 心の怪盗団 Moderator

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    What happens to money spent on the NHS? Is it put into a blender and directly injected into the veins of sick people or used to build medical infrastructure and employ people in medical care?
     
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  20. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    In general this is true, but if the banking system is creating via the functional reserve
    banking system too much money, a government surplus can mitigate that impact.

    The USA had budget surpluses under POTUS Bill Clinton and the UK had budget
    surpluses under Chancellor Gordon Brown when their economies boomed.

    Increasing amounts are injected into the bank accounts of ambulance chasing lawyers
    and greedy pharmaceutical companies.
     
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