1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Snap UK General Election

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Samson, Apr 18, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. really

    really Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2005
    Messages:
    2,914
    Location:
    Éire
    A few years ago they were protesting outside horse racing on a Sunday in Northern Ireland while at the same time abstaining from the Northern Ireland assembly and not taking the ministerial seat that would have regulated horse racing.
     
  2. Lillefix

    Lillefix I'm serious. You can.

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2003
    Messages:
    5,681
    This seems to be a powerful alliance based on a rock solid foundation. Exactly what is necessary for the Brexit negotiations....

    http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40236152

    If I had found a picture of a meme with a house of cards I'd post it below(I could only find pictures from the television series, which can wait until May is thrown out).
     
  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    55,219
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire


    Marr: "Is Jeremy Corbyn in this for the long term?"
    Corbyn: "Look at me; i've got youth on my side"

    JC rules ^^
     
  4. Winston Hughes

    Winston Hughes Wrathful Warlock Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    4,141
    Location:
    A state of unquenchable rage
    If this Tory-DUP alliance holds (and doesn't lose seats at byelection) while May avoids any major disasters, I'm guessing she makes it to the latter stages of the Brexit negotiations ~2 years from now. She's never fighting another general election, but she'll make a convenient scapegoat for the inevitable climbdowns required to secure any kind of deal with the EU.

    In the meantime, I'd expect little in the way of significant new policy from this government, with the slight exception of giant container ships loaded with cash being sent to Northern Ireland on a regular basis. Since any level of rebellion guarantees failure, they won't be in a position to do anything more controversial, while any potentially vote winning stuff will presumably be saved for the next leader to take credit.

    We'll then see a big giveaway budget in either spring or autumn 2019, followed by a general election six months later.

    The above is pretty much the best case scenario for the Tories, of course. It's not hard to imagine circumstances where May's government collapses, and they have to choose a new leader during the opening stages of a general election campaign.

    On Labour, while the rhetoric says they're ready for government now, I suspect (and hope) they realise that taking over with their current number of MPs would court total disaster. The very things that make Corbyn an attractive leader to his followers would cause him great difficulty in a situation where support for every policy must be won from other parties on a case-by-case basis. Minority governments cannot affect massive, sweeping changes in the nation's economic settlement, and nor can they afford to stand too strongly on principle if they wish to get anything done at all. Those grimy compromises and shady deals - where you give away stuff you're supposed to believe in for the sake of retaining power - become the very stuff of the job when you don't command a majority of your own.
     
  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    55,219
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    ^I think you are dreaming. May isn't likely to last 2 years; she isn't even likely to last 5 months. Risking peace in Northern Ireland just so she and the other tories can desperately cling on to their gov seats? No majority, trying to do deals with a party (DUP) which is against social values in GB in the first place (anti-homosexuality, creationist, seed of unionist terrorists?).

    There is no way at all that either May or any newly annointed tory pm could last, and it all leads to a new general election in late 2017 or early 2018, which moreover looks very likely to result in a Labour gov.
     
  6. Flying Pig

    Flying Pig Utrinque Paratus

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2009
    Messages:
    15,651
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Perfidious Albion
    I tend to agree with Winston. Pretty much everyone in the Tory party, and a good few on the Brexit end of the other parties, are going to be extremely reluctant for a general election before the end of the Brexit negotiations. That makes it less likely - though not impossible by any measure - that she'll face a leadership challenge. By the same token, however, her odds of surviving past 2019 look slim. I also think he has Labour's situation entirely right. At present, opposition suits them - they just have to hope for an election soon, before people forget how much they like them and how much they dislike the Tories.
     
  7. dutchfire

    dutchfire Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2006
    Messages:
    14,106
    Location:
    -
    "The board has complete confidence in the current manager."
    *manager gets sacked the same week*
     
  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    55,219
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    So do you see either May's failures OR the DUP being what it is not at some point forcing the tories to not even have nominal ability to legislate on anything?

    By itself the tory party currently has -8 majority. With DUP it has +2 majority. That is - of course- assuming all tories vote as a block on whatever. Keeping in mind what they will be voting on (including brexit) i think it is impossible to seriously expect them to pass things as a gov. They aren't a gov anymore, despite the DUP affair (which threatens NI peace as well).
     
  9. Flying Pig

    Flying Pig Utrinque Paratus

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2009
    Messages:
    15,651
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Perfidious Albion
    By the same token as the +2 is fragile, though, the +8 has some resilience on certain things. We already saw that major Brexit legislation is unlikely to face serious challenges from anyone who isn't the Lib Dems. By the same token, there are probably quite a lot of Labour MPs in Brexit-backing constituencies who would (rightly) worry that people would see a challenge to the government as a threat to a smooth Brexit, and so might be unreliable in a vote of no confidence. However, for a Tory or DUP MP voting 'no confidence' would be very much a turkey voting for Christmas.
     
  10. Winston Hughes

    Winston Hughes Wrathful Warlock Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    4,141
    Location:
    A state of unquenchable rage
    If I'm dreaming, it's not a pleasant one. Getting the Tories out is pretty much the whole game as far as I'm concerned. Nothing short of that will restore funding for education and health, or reverse the brutal welfare policies aimed at disabled people in particular.

    I agree that making deals with the DUP is fraught with difficulty, and has the potential to cause problems for stability in Northern Ireland. But the simple fact is that the government can't promise what it can't deliver, and it will need to bring the whole parliamentary party with it to affect any change at all. This means that the DUP can't expect any significant change in direction on those social issues, nor can they expect much that will advance their sectarian agenda directly. There are way too many Tory MPs that would resist on either count (those being largely the same remain-supporting MPs who the government needs to keep onside even more than it needs the DUP). What the DUP can expect is a major increase in economic support, for which they can then take credit in future elections.

    My point above was that it is possible for this arrangement to hold for the time being. It's not really in anyone's interest on either side to rock the boat too strongly now. There are undoubtedly things that could bring it crashing down, but those things are inherently unpredictable. Factions within the Tory party might be crazy enough to try and force a leadership election in the near future, but I doubt anyone moves until they are confident not only of winning the leadership, but also of winning the subsequent GE. Letting May play the role of excrement shield (ref. my earlier comments on her time in the Home Office) while they jostle for position would seem the smarter move.

    One factor that could blow the whole thing wide open, of course, is May herself. How much of a beating can she take without cracking up? Early signs show she's some way from broken, but circumstances could arise at any time that push her closer to the edge.

    As for the prospect of Labour government before the year is out, I'm not going to hold my breath. The narrative right now is all about what the Tories did wrong and what Labour did right. But the Tories still hold a clear lead, and it's blatantly obvious for all to see where they lost votes they could have won. The same is not necessarily true for Labour. They did really well with the middle classes, but there's no guarantee that they keep those votes against a Tory leader who doesn't spend a whole election campaign alienating that group. And getting the younger voters out was a great achievement, but I'm not sure there's that many more votes to be gained from that direction. It is absolutely right that Labour should take heart from what worked well at this election, but it must also start to get its collective head around what is needed to achieve more than just a less-bad-than-expected defeat.
     
    Mise likes this.
  11. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    55,219
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    ^Tories gained unexpectably many seats in Scotland, though, without which they wouldn't even have a "majority" with DUP either. So they do stand to lose seats easily too, no? Doubt many voters in Scotland are pro-DUP or entrenched tory.
     
  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    5,246
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
  13. really

    really Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2005
    Messages:
    2,914
    Location:
    Éire
    There is probably a big overlap between Scottish and Northern Irish unionists/ loyalists.
     
  14. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    33,143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    UK
    I just mentioned that in the Clown Car thread. :)
     
  15. uppi

    uppi Deity

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2007
    Messages:
    4,538
    The Brexit and all the decisions that come with any semi-competent handling of it might make big enough waves that the boat will turn over even if nobody is trying to rock it. At this point, there is no need for any major faction to bring her down, but a small group of rebels without any personal ambition can decide that this has gone far enough. Potential successors would probably prefer to sit tight for the moment, but it might not be in their hands. If I was a Tory MP, I would consider bringing her down right now to prevent the disaster that the Brexit is going to be with May handling it.
     
  16. Flying Pig

    Flying Pig Utrinque Paratus

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2009
    Messages:
    15,651
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Perfidious Albion
    Nope. A lot of the Unionist case in Scotland (and the independence case, incidentally) is about economics - most people in Scotland (c. 80%) see themselves as Scottish first, the disagreement is whether Scottish people are best off in the UK or out of it. In NI, it's about ethnicity, religion and identity. People like the DUP see themselves as 'British', perhaps 'Ulster' but definitely not 'Irish'. Irish republicans, by contrast, see themselves as 'Irish', definitely not 'British', and refer to NI as 'the North of Ireland', implying that Ireland is one thing that has been illegitimately split in two. The side effect of that is that Unionism correlates far more closely with other political leanings (particularly social conservatism) in NI than it does in Scotland. It's true to say that Scottish Tories are generally Unionist, but not the other way around, and plenty of people seem to voted Tory for the Unionist angle more than anything else.
     
  17. Winston Hughes

    Winston Hughes Wrathful Warlock Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    4,141
    Location:
    A state of unquenchable rage
    Yeah, those new seats are quite likely to be vulnerable at the next election, especially if (as it appears they will) the SNP shunts talk of another independence referendum into the long grass. That said, if we get another GE in the shorter term, then Labour will be relying on the SNP taking those seats off the Tories. The problem with tactical voting/campaigning there, however, is that it entrenches the seats as Tory-SNP, making it more difficult to win them back for Labour in the future.

    On the DUP thing, I could be mistaken, but it doesn't seem likely to be a significant problem for the Scottish Tories.

    Tory MPs without personal ambition? There's Ken Clarke, I guess, but I don't see him bringing down the government by his own hand.

    The Brexit vote suggests the rest of the more pro-European MPs will fall into line easily enough for the time being, especially as any replacement for May would likely come from further out on the anti-European wing. There will be plenty of minor disloyalty from various quarters, with all the consequences that has for the party's image, but with May's departure now guaranteed at some point not too far away, and with the relative power of other players in government increased by her weakness, there's no great reason for anyone in Tory ranks to bloody their hands getting rid of her early.

    Doesn't mean they won't, of course. Given how foolhardy the election campaign was, you'd think Tory MPs might be somewhat more cautious at this stage, but it's always possible some chancer or other will try to make their name by delivering the killer blow.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
    Kyriakos likes this.
  18. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2006
    Messages:
    19,287
    If May lasts the month, I expect her to last through Brexit. Brexit negotiations are going to be nasty and will result in the PM emerging as damaged goods the party would be trying to eject as soon as possible. If the Tories weren't facing Brexit I'm sure they would have jettisoned her by now, but as is, she makes a useful scapegoat. Despite her clearly poor sense of political timing with u-turning over the snap election and dementia tax, I haven't seen anything to indicate May herself is incompetent. (Or rather, that anyone else would be materially better at Brexit negotiations that she would be. The UK is still heading in to negotiations in a weaker position than the EU.)
     
  19. Gigaz

    Gigaz civoholic

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2007
    Messages:
    1,229
    Location:
    Dresden
    And how is she going to brexit with a minority government and with a Tory party hostile to the prime minister? She doesn't even have a plan anymore. Threatening with a hard Brexit without a deal is dead, because she has no majority for that. Now whats the new plan?
     
  20. Winston Hughes

    Winston Hughes Wrathful Warlock Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    4,141
    Location:
    A state of unquenchable rage
    The negotiations themselves don't need any more legislation passed afaik. Short of bringing down the government, I don't see anything that MPs can do to block the process. What they will get are votes on the final deal and on the replacement or repeal of existing legislation no longer demanded by EU law.

    How this election will affect the details, nobody can say right now. So far, the only major difference we can be sure about is that May is doomed no matter what happens.

    Edit: Gove is back. As environment secretary. :cry:
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page