Considering Old World is almost a year old at this point and, going off Steam stats, its total units sold (57,150) is just slightly higher than the number of people that played Civ VI just yesterday (51,320 CIV vs 625 for OW), 7 years after release... I'm going to take "eating Civ VI for lunch" with the biggest grain of salt
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Old World launched as an Epic exclusive. So it's sales on Steam are going to be much lower than a game that launched as a Steam exclusive.
It also was the
#3 top-selling game on GOG last year.
Now I'd agree that from a sales perspective, no strategy game is currently beating
Civilization in cumulative sales, but Old World is doing better than your numbers suggest, likely much better.
Give Soren Johnson and the team behind Old World a few more years to build up their name recognition, and I'll be excited to see what they can do.
That would make seven years since Civ6 was released (2016 - 2023) which makes it even harder for me to believe we'd have to wait even longer. It is hard for me to believe that the pandemic work from home and video conferences would slow down the process more than a few months at most, it didn't slow down the rest of video game/Internet/entertainment industry that much. Do we even have some concrete examples of video game release X being pushed back explicitly Y amount of months because of covid? The entire industry was releasing massive hits during the freakin apocalyptic 2020. You know, little indie games such as Doom Eternal and its DLCs, Cyberpunk, Death Stranding, Crusader Kings III, Total War Troy, 15th Assasins Creed and 57th Call od Duty etc.
I work at a software company and can tell you that the pandemic definitely
can cause major delays. The team I am on now lost all its developers in 2021-22, which caused productivity to plummet due to loss of knowledge; it's still not as high as it was previously. Software is not an industry where you can have someone new join and have them be super productive right away, there are ramp-up times even when they have industry experience.
And there was a
lot of turnover in the software industry in 2020 - 2022. Some people prefer in-person, some hybrid, some remote, and there was a great reshuffling as people who found themselves at a work setup they didn't enjoy left their company in search of the setup they preferred. I personally left the company I was working at because they weren't introducing in-person or hybrid options, and I dislike remote. I know other people who did the opposite. That wasn't a reason that people were switching jobs pre-pandemic, or in 2020, and there was nothing companies could do to make everyone happy.
IMO, the switch to remote is also a switch that has a lag effect in terms of decreasing productivity. When things went remote in 2020, everyone was working with people they knew from the office and there was kind of a shared camaraderie around the new experience, you now your colleagues and were in it together. But it's a lot tougher to connect with and build good working relationships with people you never meet in person, after starting a new job while remote. They're a name and maybe a face on a screen. You don't learn about their family, or meet up for beers after work, or go off-site for lunch, especially if you aren't in the same city. If you aren't really happy with the creative project you are on, why bother staying? Whereas before, you might not be thrilled but if you like your colleagues you are more likely to stay.
Remote is especially bad for new white-collar professionals. You learn so much in the software industry by seeing what your colleagues are doing and asking questions. The hit to productivity from new employees not learning as quickly didn't happen in 2020, but a few years later. Now working at a local company that's hybrid-but-with-real-teams-in-office-most-days, we're seeing bumper crops of young candidates applying, looking to get that in-office experience they've been missing out on and which is not nearly as available as it was pre-pandemic.
Being remote also makes "quiet quitting" easier. It's hard to predict how long things will take in software, and if you're remote there's a lot less accountability for "did this take a long time because it really took a long time, or because they were playing FIFA 23 for half the day?" As one of my colleagues said of another colleague recently, "He's really smart when he works" - the implication being that on the "remote" days of our hybrid schedule, he didn't work very much. I'm also of the opinion that the social isolation of being remote increases the chance of "quiet quitting", especially among young workers who live by themselves and may be feeling lost at a job in a new career where they don't know any of their colleagues. I estimated at the time that I was half as productive at the remote job I started mid-pandemic as the one I worked at pre-pandemic. My colleagues still thought I was doing a great job, but I was only doing half as great of a job as I had been in the office or even in the first few months of the pandemic with people I knew from the office. The work itself wasn't harder, the management was fine, it was just hard to be motivated and easy to be distracted at home.
All that is to say there are a lot of reasons why the pandemic could slow things down, some of which wouldn't have been evident yet in 2020.
To be sure I also know other people who became workaholics when they went remote and didn't have the physical office/home separation to remind them of what they should be focusing on. But the effects would vary by company. I have no idea how it has affected Firaxis.
I'm going to say Thursday, then I have a 1 in 7 chance of being correct.
Good guess! I'll go for Tuesday!
Wouldn't be surprised if it's announced this fall. With the sales on Civ VI in the past half year it certainly seems like Firaxis wants everyone who's even thought about buying Civ VI to buy it, which seems the logical strategy if the successor is not far out.