[BTS] So much sugar ^_^ And the Re-Discussion on Numidians

[Gwaja]

Didn't our parents use to tell us not to eat so much sweets when we were kids? Well, apparently, the Civ4 gods are telling us to screw all that! I mean... just look at all these tiles occupied by resource icons.... I mean... sugar. ^_^

Spoiler :

It is impossible to tell from the screenshot, but sugar tiles 1E and 1SE are actually on fresh water, as there is a tiny 1-tile-long river on the coast.

Settings:

Map generated using BAT 4.1: Sorry I meant to play strictly offline, but couldn't stop myself from sharing after seeing all that sugar. If you have BAT installed as a mod, give it a whirl. As of the moment of posting this, I haven't played a single turn set either.

Big and Small / Small Islands / Islands Mixed In / Normal Continents
Normal Size / Normal Speed / Normal Sea Level
Immortal
Choose Religions / Lock Modified Assets
No Huts / No Events / No Tech Brokering

Theme: I am wanting to roleplay as the mighty Carthage of old, masters of trade, utilizing the power of the Great Lighthouse and the unique building, Cothon.

AbsoluteZero made videos arguing that Numidian Cavalries are generally superior at higher levels, and he did make a good case for it, but I also want to see for myself as I haven't played with that particular unique unit for a very long time now. I still don't like the reduced strength though.

 

[Noble Zarkon]

AbsoluteZero made videos arguing that Numidian Cavalries are generally superior at higher levels

Interesting, what was his argument? They are generally regarded on here as weaker than the Horse Archers they replace!!

 

[Gwaja]

@Noble Zarkon

This is a 2-part video posted by AbsoluteZero more than a decade ago when he was very active in this forum:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Basically, his argument was that on higher difficulty levels, we would be facing more metal (melee) units in cities than archers, and even more so in open fields. His demo was okay, but I am still really bothered by any unique units that have reduced overall strength.

These videos are so old that people probably forgot them... I only wish he kept his channel more organized with his old Civ 4 videos because it is hard to find some of his best videos.

 

[Gwaja]

@Noble Zarkon

I found the very thread he started arguing for the Numidians. It is more than 10 years old.

https://forums.civfanatics.com/thre...horse-archers-the-proof.420728/#post-10445577

 

[krikav]

Numidians make for some really nice upgraded F1+F2 cavalry.

 

[Henrik75]

Ok so I have gone back and fourth on this over the years

So lets talk

I have only played civ 4 above noble level for 2 years now, in the first year I used to only watch absolute zero and believe anything he said while i was climbing up difficulties. And some of his points are true, Numidians do well against melee units, and the deity AI will have early metal and you will face many melee units in a horse archer rush. Yes.

However, after learning how civ 4 combat works myself, I really began to question this judgement. So I decided to do some tests in world builder now
Indeed, against Axes and Swordsman, which have a decently high base strength, the fact the Numidian Cavalry is able to take off 50% from their city/fortify total defense bonus, it does contribute a lot more than the extra base strength from a horse archer.
Against a spear however, it's really not that different, when they're in a city with a high amount of bonuses. Because they have so many bonuses from fortify, city culture, and 100% vs mounted, they often end up at something like strength 10 or 12 in total, against your 6 as a horse archer. So lets assume 6 vs 12, you have like 1% odds. With a numid, you are taking 50% off of their bonus so that brings them down to 10, but you are also only 5.
realistically, you're effectively the same strength, attacking into something double your strength, which is how the combat odds scale. Either way you will have 1% odds to win.
Against a sword in a city it's a little better because you take 3 off of them instead of 2, but it's not much better.

Meanwhile against an archer in a city, they're often around a total strength of 6 or 7, meaning if you can get higher than that with a combat 2 horse archer, you will swing the odds in your favour to something like 60%. If you can't reach that threshold with the numid because you're stuck at 5.5 or 6 instead of 6.6-7.2, you will have 30% odds which more often than not makes a huge difference.
Despite having metal, the AI will still build and defend cities with some archers. So while you gain a slightly better outcome against some melee units, the issue with spears isn't fixed, and you will have a much harder time against archer than you should.

Then there's also the issue against other mounted units. You're going to lose against enemy horse archers, and even chariots may give you a hard time - you only get 70-75% odds against a chariot instead of 90-95%.
With all these disadvantages, it doesn't quite make up for it by being slightly better against swords/axes.

In summary I think Numidians are really cool open field fighters and can delete stacks of swords/axes/spears in the open field, but really struggle to rush cities on their own as hilled archers are going to give you a really hard time whereas a horse archer can potentially break through.

Oh yeah.
Compare it to Egypt's War Chariot. Now that unit is insane.
Also base strength of 5, also immune to first strikes, doesn't have the same withdrawal chance BUT it's 20 hammers less, comes way earlier, and has a 100% attack against axes.

Numid vs Spear? - 5 vs 10 (-50% of 4) so 5 vs 8 maybe 10% odds.
War chariot - 5 vs 10 1% odds.
Numid vs archer? same as war chariot vs archer, withdrawal only changes
Numid vs axe? assuming fortified under 20% culture, the axe gains 45% but numid gains 50%
5 vs (5/1.05) = 5 vs 4.76 = 63% odds
War chariot vs axe, you have 55% worth more bonus, so
5 vs 5/1.55) = 5 vs 3.22 = you actually get 90%+ odds here, 96% if you have combat promos
and war chariot ties with numid against other chariots and HAs.

These are very quick odds and sure, hills, combat promos and fortify or not can altar them all, but not too significantly.

Honestly if Numidians costed only 40 hammers maybe, they'd be pretty damn neat. But the lower base strength really hurts them

 

[Gwaja]

@Henrik75

I am in agreement with your points mostly. The only thing is that, considering Hannibal's traits, upgrading the Numidians as @krikav rightfully pointed out, to Flanking 2 may be well worth it since it is easier to get promos with him. Too bad that the regular Horse Archers also have immunity to First Strikes unlike the Keshik... if the regular Horse Archers were the one without immunity to First Strike instead, the Flanking 2 promotion would have shined more.

I am in a camp that believes that any unique units with lowered base strength is just flat out worse in most cases, even if the replacement unique unit is resourceless. Having problems with barbarians? One should really make a habit of getting Archery instead of gambling on getting easily accessible horses or copper nearby, in which case, barbarian problems become manageable and there is not much to praise about a resourceless unit with lowered strength.

 

[drewisfat]

Numids are hot garbage. AZ was out to prove something here, because he rushed AH even though he had nothing to pasture and Hannibal is FIN. This led him to settle by sheep/gold instead of the monster corn/gold/floodplain city north. Settling that would have ensured enough commerce/land to win by peacefully racing to Lib. Instead he went with a rush that risks flat out losing the game to the mundane defensive ability of 3 archers. In the pro-Numid scenario where his first target was defended by 2 axes and 1 archer... well chariots could have killed that more efficiently, and that's a pretty normal prebuild for an HA rush while you're finishing HBR because chariots are efficient mop-up.

Plus the whole point of the speedy 2 movers is to get around fighting metal units by:
- Not attacking AIs who have copper
- Attacking before AIs get IW
- Pillaging metal ASAP
- Attacking targets who are at war with someone else
- Running past their metal units to snipe their weak underbelly and then peace out
- Defending against metal units with archers/axes.

Sure you could come up with some worst case scenario where none of that applies and you're forced to attack a lot of metal units, but it would be strange not to play like you're trying to minimize AI metal. At the end of the day, you will always have to fight a decent number of archers and those battles will be roughly 2:1 odds in your favor with HAs and 2:1 odds against you with Numids because of how volatile battle odds are when they're close to even. All the withdrawal chance in the world won't dry your tears.

 

[Fish Man]

Got a WB save? Interested in trying but my newly-installed version is bugging me with the "incompatible assets" thing again...

 

[Gwaja]

@Fish Man

Arrr.. I meant to play this strictly offline so I "locked modified assets" meaning I cannot get into World Builder in game.

Does anyone know how to make a WB save when assets are locked like this?

 

[Gwaja]

@drewisfat

I am in agreement, especially what you pointed out as advantages of using 2 movers. I am not sure what the devs were thinking when they introduced the Numidians, but I think that leaving them at 6 strength without touching other bonus(es) would have been fine. Overpowered that may be one might say? Just look at Praetorians! ^_^

AbsoluteZero was really adamant back in the day, and I agree that the map may not have been ideal for an early Numidian rush. I wonder if he still thinks this way. He does stream Civ 4 on a very rare occasion on a live stream.

Now if you will excuse me, I am going to work on "Prepare to SUFFER #3." ^_^

 

[Fippy]

Spoiler :

 

[Gwaja]

@Fippy

OMG!! So cute!! ^_^

 

[BornInCantaloup]

I have played until 1 AD and this game is not easy.

Spoiler :

What can I do now ?

 

[BornInCantaloup]

I have only played 29,20% of this game. It could be very long.

Spoiler :

 

[BornInCantaloup]

I'd have waited a few days to post gameplay if I had known it would kill the thread :/
Please feel free to try this map or discuss the (de)merits of the Numidian Cavalry.

 

[Fippy]

Like for the paint alone

 

[krikav]

Played abit BOTM (new game recently!) but have been busy IRL now.
Good to see that you are enjoying yourself a nice game BiC.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

I wasn't fishing for likes but I'll accept it, dear Fippy. Don't you ever click End Turn no more ?
I mostly meant to encourage gameplay, at the best, or, at least, not discourage T0 and general discussions if that's what people prefer.
Yes, mad paint skillz. I put a lot of effort. Not ready for Photoshop, yet.

Good to see that you are enjoying yourself a nice game BiC.

Both of Gwaja's Immortal maps are very cool. This one is templated towards a Space Race (or Diplo) win, so could warrant some 45+ hours. Not the track I'm on. She did ask I play a game in a single session, after all. Maybe 5 will do.
GL in BOTM, glad to see you play those (get the gold).

 

[Gwaja]

I'd have waited a few days to post gameplay if I had known it would kill the thread :/
Please feel free to try this map or discuss the (de)merits of the Numidian Cavalry.

BAH! Don't you give up now. ^_^ I was gone for a few days on vacation, though I am going on another one in a couple of days. I am playing this map myself so I couldn't open your spoilers, despite how tempting it was to open it. When I return from my next short vacation and with some progress on my game, I will be sure to take a look.