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So what happens if Putin decides he wants Latvia?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by storealex, Nov 21, 2014.

  1. storealex

    storealex In service of peace

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    Putin cannot win diplomatically. He cannot win economically. He is not the type to just give up and accept defeat. Can he win militarily?

    Latvia has a huge Russian minority. A minority that Russia pays money to accept Russian citizenship. The Russian army could take Latvia, or the russian speaking parts of it, in a matter of days.

    What would NATO and EU then do? What could we do? I don't believe we would start a nuclear war over some outback provinces in Latvia. NATO or no NATO. And we simply do not have the forces to retake anything from Russia by conventional means. Not in Europe.
    Russia could take Latvia and in a fait accompli, and we what exactly would we do then?

    Also, what can we do to avoid this from happening?
     
  2. gay_Aleks

    gay_Aleks communism will win.

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    But... why in the name of all that is holy would Putin take Latvia? Once this question is answered, we can discuss their inevitable annexation.
     
  3. Saigon

    Saigon Warlord

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    I'm not sure our spineless leaders would even honor the NATO agreements, I am very skeptical of President Obama's willingness to stand up to Putin. With that being said, we could mop the floor with Russia militarily and retake Russian occupied territory in the Baltic states.
     
  4. storealex

    storealex In service of peace

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    1. As an response to economic sanctions.
    2. To "protect" the Russians living in Latvia, as in Crimea.
    3. To spread the Russians sphere of influence.
     
  5. gay_Aleks

    gay_Aleks communism will win.

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    Uh, the sanctions won't stop if they annex Latvia, and Latvia is an actual NATO member. Unlike Ukraine.

    And why would they want to spread their "sphere of influence" to Latvia of all places?
     
  6. storealex

    storealex In service of peace

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    Who is we? Certainly not anyone in Europe. Our militaries are much weaker than most can imagine.
    America could, yes. But the bulk of US forces is not on Europe. Their response time would be long, giving Russia time to consolidate. Making the reconquest such a bloody affair, that Obama would have to think twice.
     
  7. storealex

    storealex In service of peace

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    I know. But Latvia would be quite a bargaining chip. And as you can read from my original post, Im obviously aware that Latvia is a NATO member. My question is; what can NATO possibly do to protect it?

    Putin has several times said that he wants to reinstate former Russian glory. He regards the fall of the Soviet Union as a geopolitical disaster, he believes all Russians should live in Russia, and he is willing to use his military to set matters "right".
     
  8. gay_Aleks

    gay_Aleks communism will win.

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    You know, he could be just trying to satisfy his voter base. I doubt that Putin is the sole post-USSR president who wanted to restore the "former glory". Or that he's the first.
     
  9. CavLancer

    CavLancer This aint fertilizer

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    Very, very stern rebuking at the most high diplomatic level! (nothing)
     
  10. gay_Aleks

    gay_Aleks communism will win.

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    I am secretly suspecting the West is giving poor territories to Russia so that they overstretch and the future successors of Putin are forced to free them again.

    Just like they did in the Cold War.
     
  11. storealex

    storealex In service of peace

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    Perhaps. We don't know. But even if so, he is playing a very dangerous game. By fueling nationalistic fire in Russia and provoking the West, he might be entering a road where he's actions are limited. Like Khrusjtjov and Kennedy were under pressure from their own sides to go to war.
     
  12. calad

    calad Emperor

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    Thats how you exploit ai in civ.
     
  13. gay_Aleks

    gay_Aleks communism will win.

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    No, you bribe them or you open world builder and make all their terrain tundra.
     
  14. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    I dunno. What happens if the President of the US decides he wants Iraq?

    Oh, wait, that already happened.

    Apparently the answer is 'nothing much, unless you happen to be there'.
     
  15. filli_noctus

    filli_noctus Hmmn

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    Putin's not an idiot. The next thing to a dictator, yes, but an idiot? No.

    Attempting to invade any NATO member will lead to a military response, because if it doesn't NATO will collapse. America may not be able to respond in force immediately but Britain and France can; and while neither has the overall military might Russia does they have superior equipment and training that is at least equivalent - certainly enough to hold off or at least slow down aggressors whilst the US redeploys.

    Once the US is deployed the best case would be Russia surrendering quickly, worst case - well, you add up the nuclear weapons on each side.
     
  16. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Silly furry

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    99.95% certainty: Putin will not invade Latvia if it's still in a NATO with at least one nuclear-capable member-state.
     
  17. Borachio

    Borachio Way past lunacy

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    Given that Putin hasn't invaded Eastern Ukraine (at least not officially) which isn't in NATO, why would he invade Latvia, which is?

    http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
     
  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    So... what happens when Russia decides it wants to bomb Latvia, but not annex it or whatever. Which entails returning that land to the stone age, cause they don't plan to incorporate it at any rate so wth. Ie work Merican/nato style? ;)
     
  19. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Wtf, somebody has already done it...
     
  20. CavLancer

    CavLancer This aint fertilizer

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    Oh yes! Latvia is in NATO, forgot. I withdraw my (nothing) and go with full on war. So, Putin would never do this.
     

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