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So what happens if Putin decides he wants Latvia?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by storealex, Nov 21, 2014.

  1. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Putin will declare a no-fly zone over Latvia, to protect its citizens from tyrannical dictatorship.
    Americans will accept it, confusing Latvia with Libya.
    EU will express strong concern about the situation and work for diversifying of natural gas suppliers.
     
  2. Terxpahseyton

    Terxpahseyton One. And many.

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    Military of European Union (I know not Nato, but most EU members are also NATO members)

    Active personnel 1,551,038
    Budget €192.5 billion (1.55% of GDP)

    Russian Military
    Active personnel 766,000
    Budget $90.7 billion (4.4% of GDP)

    Now even if those numbers or not absolutely misleading and European NATO members have the man-power and equipment to push Russia back - I highly doubt that those resources are structured / can be quickly coordinated in a way to do that.

    And in deed, the Nato has already admitted that they are not prepared for such a scenario.

    So yep Latvia would go to Russia. And then everything would change.

    But would NATO counter-attack? The problem with that is that this would carry the very high risk of an all-out-war with Russia.

    With a huge atomic power.

    And is NATO going into an all-out war with a big Atomic power over... Latvia?
    No, I don't think so.
    Because that would be nuts.

    Now, an alternative solution may be that a Russian coup would replace the leadership and the new leadership would peacefully withdraw from Lativa.
    Because that invasion would have been also nuts. It most definitely would cause at least the West if not even China to sanction the crap out of Russia and its economy would tank and the Russian people would probably start to be a bit less united in their love of their leadership and all the people directly financially benefiting from the leadership would not be either.
    Which btw also is why an invasion of Latvia is not only nuts but also won't happen.
     
  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    There is no West, anyway. Just some pseudo-cores and satellites around them, along with a huge and empty catchterm/hushtag. #West.

    And it is rather clear that the situation in the Ukraine was (as usual) handled in the worst possible way by the EU, which has rapidly turned to one of the least democratic entities around by now (and not very different from the late Ussr). I recalled that supposedly decisions had to be voted upon by all member-state governments so as to become a reality. Why did this not happen with having a special relation with the Ukraine? Or for sanctions against Russia? What the hell is this now, some overlordship of the 'EU' without even a vote?

    I hope to emigrate to Switzerland. (Norway is way too cold for me, probably).
     
  4. EgonSpengler

    EgonSpengler Deity

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    You're making an argument for the dissolution of NATO. Which may be an argument to make. Should the United States go to war to protect Belgium, Iceland, Greece, or Portugal? I imagine there are those who would say 'no.'
     
  5. Yeekim

    Yeekim Moderator Moderator

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    Where the hell did you get an idea this did not happen? :confused:
     
  6. Civ'ed

    Civ'ed I ain't gotta explain a thing

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    Iceland? Probably. Iceland's a wonderful air base, you see.
     
  7. Terxpahseyton

    Terxpahseyton One. And many.

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    I disagree. NATO would come out stronger than it has been in decades. Because NATO would ensure that no other NATO member could be taken by Russia like that by establishing the capability to immediately repel any ground / air forces.
    That would secure the remaining NATO members while not risking the use of atomic weapons.

    I.e. it would be smart.
     
  8. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    My impression is that the sanctions after the Ukraine incident were actually quite damaging. For those interested in the long game, nearly 50% of the Russian government's revenue is from natural gas. So, proactively ending Europe's addiction would go a long way.
     
  9. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Eh??

    Are you claiming there were parliamentary votes on all EU countries on those issues?

    Cause that is very clearly false. By likely a huge margin. :(

    What is the point to have voting ability if a country cannot even vote in its parliament if it will agree to be part of sanctions on some significant trade-partner?
    Or to allow or not interim member status for another country.
     
  10. James Stuart

    James Stuart King

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    He lives in Greece. Not exactly EU-friendly. I'd expect a British forum member to have a similar outlook.
     
  11. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Whether a vote or not happened is not a matter of outlook, m8 ;)

    And it did not. Maybe it did only in some countries where it was certain the parliament would vote against Russia, but it definitely did not happen in all EU member-states, so it hardly looks democratic.
     
  12. dusters

    dusters Emperor

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    lol, a thread about Latvia and snow all over the place in the same morning :D

    We got NATO aircraft guarding the borders due to the fact that Latvia is the eastern NATO border.
     
  13. Mechanicalsalvation

    Mechanicalsalvation -

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    This. While invading Iraq for false reasons is just unfortunate decision of the best goverment on Earth. Possible Russian involvment in defending rights of Russian minorities is going to be labeled as the return of evilest thing ever.
     
  14. James Stuart

    James Stuart King

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    The EU Parliament ratified the agreement. That's all that is required. That is how representative democracy works; the citizenry elect representatives, who then make decisions that are (in theory, obviously not always in practice) in line with the expectations of those who elected them.

    The Ukraine-EU relationship has been long and fraught with troubles, but there's nothing undemocratic about it. Greece, the UK, and any other state that chooses to leave the EU can do so. Until then, they should just shut up and accept it when a vote doesn't go their way. You can criticise EU decisions for being biased, inaccurate, incorrect, etc., but you cannot criticise decisions by the EU parliament as being undemocractic. Unbefitting of a democracy, perhaps - a criticism I would level at my own government - but not undemocratic.
     
  15. Virote_Considon

    Virote_Considon The Great Dictator

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    If Putin decides to agitate for Russian separatism within the EU's borders, then it must be war. No "if's", no "but's".
     
  16. calad

    calad Emperor

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    How Im not surprised to see completely same posters here from UA thread with completely same complains with tinfoil hats.
     
  17. Borachio

    Borachio Way past lunacy

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    It might be nuts, but that would be the logic of the situation. NATO would be obliged by Article 5 of the Treaty, to respond to military action by Russia with direct military action. No matter whether such action would be immediately effective or not. Which Russia must realize. Which is why I don't think Russia would ever invade Latvia.
     
  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Are you for real? The EU has over 500 million people. The EU council (or even the parliament) is a country club with deranged bats as members. Their vote is not meant even by EU standards to stand for parliamentary votes in member states. If you honestly think it is a cool idea to have a few tens of people (or ten people, more realistically) decide if the EU sanctions Russia, then you are likely to be dreaming in a dream involving benevolent dictators for make benefit glorious nation of Colonystan.
     
  19. Yeekim

    Yeekim Moderator Moderator

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    No, it also needs to be ratified in all member states, as per your own link.
    As far as sanctions go, they were all voted for in Council.
     
  20. Yeekim

    Yeekim Moderator Moderator

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