Greg said, that it's pretty much predictable which tile the AI chooses next for our city expansion. Mostly it will be a tile with a resource. But what about the following situation:
Lets say the adjactent tiles to the existing city radius do not contain any resources. However there is a resource three tiles away from the city. Will the AI be smart enough to "beeline" to this resource? Or will it expand to other directions, perhaps because it worships a grassland tile more than a plain tile which would lead to the resource-tile...?
It isn't like what you describe is going to be rare situation. My main concern would be how the AI chooses between non-resource tiles? Governor can be used to influence whether is tries for food or production and I would guess pretty much all riverside tiles will be selected be non-riverside tiles (though after resources).