Discussion in 'Mafia/NOTW' started by Timsup2nothin, Feb 17, 2020.
Tak could you answer my question if you're around
I'm still a hundred posts behind but vote: Synsensa.
Any post in particular? The number of tabs with this thread I have right now goes up to exactly eleven.
Tbh, your response makes me even more biased. It's not that vague. There are no fallacies in your logic, because there's not much continuity. You're not really building a world. You're asking people questions and are more aggressive than feels natural.
I'll add it to the wall of megaquotes.
One observation: Snerk is either reading every post in the thread or doing a vanity search of all posts mentioning his own name. (post #1283)
Can't it be both?
I don't feel like ISOing you at the moment, but if it was the 3-reads (including yours truly) then I pegged you as town for what appeared to be genuine probing and suspicion. If you want something more specific, feel free to @me; I'll check back later.
As for my Csargo read: I said it initially when I was townreading him: he felt muted by the spam rule. When I last read his ISO closer to EOD, I was coming around to maybe scum, but I still had him as more than likely town.
Logic have you ISO'd me yet?
Empoof imo thinks yesterday was WWW (with possibly a doubt on Sommer) so
That's diehard investigation just there.
I like it.
Other possibility is that yesterday was WVV and he is building up credit as wolf in a bold way... I am dismissing this for the time being
That's kind of slim but I will let it there untill Tak is "flipped".
OK my reads... Here is my original read:
Also Here is Tims final tally for reference:
So for me the following are Town or at a minimum lynch immune for D2
Synsensa, Visor, Empoof, Takhisis, Manasi, Raskol - for 100% correctly voting wolf D1
Monty - for being on a confirmed wolf's kill list (along with Syn and Tak who are already on my no-lynch list) I will add however that I did say I thought that Csargo might include 1 wolf on his naughty list just to throw things off... so since this is my only positive read on Monty, I will say that he is the most likely decoy-wolf in Csargo's lynch list.
These next folks are question marks for me, but not worth considering lynching D2, because the third group has a guaranteed wolf in it.
Johanna, Arakhor, Aimee, Winston
Group three is the lynch candidates, because they voted me and I am 100% sure they are wrong, while the rest of you at a minimum can't be 100% sure they weren't wrong.
Yako, Dolbster, Snerk, Argon, Pzelda,
I don't know how many wolves there are total, or if we even get that information, I think someone said 5 earlier... but one of these 5 folks is definitely a wolf. Now of these 5, I'm inclined to cross off Snerk because I don't think there are 6 wolves and he was the only one on this list who did not have an extreme reaction to when I finally posted my reads. His reaction was along the lines of "OK that seems townish, I'll consider it" which, again out of the people on this list, seemed the most genuine.
So of the remaining 4 Pzelda would be my last wolf because Pzelda at least did accept that I was town and unvote me, but it was so extreme... "Oh you've convinced me so I am immediately unvoting you!"... It feels a little like pocketing... I mean I like to think I am persuasive and all that but it seemed a little too flattering. Plus if you are so convinced by my reasoning, why switch your vote to Tak who I have been adamant is town? So that was a little puzzling.
Higher on the list would be Yako. In contrast to Snerk, Yako has been just as extreme as Pzelda, just in the opposite direction "I don't care what you say you're wolf that's it lalalalalala!" is my impression of his reaction to all the favorable statements that have been made about me. He's basically tunneling me trying to keep the wheels on their wagon. In Yako's defense, I did vote him first, so he might just be in perma-OMGUS mode towards me.
Up next the top is Dolbster because he has been similar to Yako in tunneling and refusing to consider giving up his wagon. I don't give Dolbster the same benefit of the doubt as Yako though, because when I initially picked Yako, he immediately wagoned me to defend Yako, so in retrospect that makes me feel more like the two of them are w/w backing each other up.
But at the top of the list is Argon. He came after me, guns blazing, right from the D2 outset hoping to get the same wagon from D1 going and then as soon as folks started rejecting the "Sommers is clearly wolf" narrative he immediately tried to pocket me by announcing that he was totally convinced and immediately switching to Tak wagon. That coupled with all the lying about what position he was taking, saying I was town, then voting me anyway (before I suggested a flip), then lying about it, plus all the bandwagoning on the folks I think are town, and the all the distracting role-claiming to obscure his actual alignment... Argon seems like the most suspicious of all
So to me right now I lean Argon then Dolby, that is assuming that folks don't want to just flip me to get a hard-clear on all the D1 Csargo voters and a hard condemn on all the D1 Sommer voters.
Thanks. Yes, that's the post. Not much to go on, but maybe worth remembering in the future.
I actually posted on that earlier. It was bait, and I actually found Sommerswerd a lynch candidate independently of that. It's interesting to see that Synsensa (as I detailed in post #1397) chickened out when I called him out on his own ertswhile promises. (watch the video, too)
Let's roll with the Arakhor-Takhisis competing bandwaggons.
It's about as scientific a science as economics. I.e. it deals with humans so it can give rough predictions that will of course not survive contact with factual reality intact.
But it can be useful as a tool.
And if Arakhor flips town does that condemn scum?
Also, if Argon is town, how does that make Arakhor look?
And logically, if Arakhor is scum, how does Argon look?
OK, so fart so good, but whom should we vote for, since you claim to have reread the entire thread in one go?
I don't recall specific instances of events from most games, but if you have the time you'd better look up the Impending Retribution game. Backwards Logic gave me the dubious distinction of being the scummiest townie he ever saw as a host.
So basically tunnelling then?
unvote; vote: Arakhor
Already answered (crosspost)
Careful! The earlier voters on any waggon can just be mafiosi who go caught and cannot move their vote later on in the day for whatever reason.
I get that, but it makes ZERO sense to prioritize people who we know with 100% certainty voted correctly, in favor of people who we don't know whether they voted correctly or not. And since I know with 100% certainty that the folks who picked me were wrong, it makes no sense for me to guess beyond that group who the next wolf is, when I know for certain that there is a wolf in that small group.
Voting - 14
Arakhor (5) - Dolby, JohannaK, Raskol, Argon, Takhisis
Takhisis (4) - Arakhor, Empoof, Synsensa, Zelda
Empoof (2) - Visor, Winston
Johanna (1) - Snerk
Argon (1) - Yako
Sommer (1) - Monty
Not Voting - 3
Aimee, Manasi, and Sommer
Day Two ends in approximately 25 hours at 4 PM PST on Saturday, Feb. 22nd.
So that would be Yakostovian, Dolbster, Montmorency, Snerk, LordArgon, Pzelda, and Csargo. That's an interesting subset.
Yes, it's very interesting to see me not switching to Sommer when the person I'm voting for switches to Sommer. Your analyses continue to amaze.
One of the crew returns to the transporter room, pondering the mysterious carving on the bottom of the console. They are surprised to find a mess on the transporter pad! They check the transporter logs and find that they have been deleted! Has someone beamed something onto the ship? Something that was...oozing???
Separate names with a comma.