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Strategic victory for Huawei.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Silurian, May 20, 2019.

  1. Silurian

    Silurian Warlord

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    Will the US decision to stop supplying Huawei hand them and China a strategic victory.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2019
  2. wolfigor

    wolfigor Chieftain

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    Long term they may be able to turn a problem (catastrophe) into an opportunity.

    However, for the time being this is a huge issue and they can get on their knees before able to stand-up by themselves.
    The problem is not only the OS for their handsets, there is AOSP for that, the problem is the large number of Google services and infrastructure that Huawei will need to replicate (at a level of quality good enougth).
    Compatibility with Android (and Google services) is probably mandatory to guarantee access to the large Apps ecosystem... a lot of apps not only runs only on Android but they also rely on a number of Google services on handsets to properly run.
    Amazon tried with their Android based platform and we can't really say it succeed.
    Samsung and others tried with completely different OSes (such as Tizen) and failed too.
    It isn't as easy at it may seem, especially because the OS, UI, apps ecosystem, and services have to be at same or higher quality than the competition.

    On the hardware side things are very dire now, having lost access to Qualcomm, however Mediatek and Spreadtrum will be happy to help (unfortunately the performances of their chipsets are not really at the same level of Qualcom especially on the high-end).

    Today in London Huawei is having a big show to present the new Honor flagship... the show goes on but a most of their managers have been recalled to HQ for the emergency.
    They do not want to be the next ZTE.

    On the laptop market, I would say that Huawei is dead (no Windows, no Intel)... again they could go full Linux but it's a tough sell.
     
  3. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    Using one now. It was around half the price of an equivalent Samsung.

    It's way better than my old Samsung which I liked.
    Oh well bad luck for Huawei.
     
  4. Snerk

    Snerk Smeghead

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    Huawei phones are great, I've had a couple in the past. They're pretty popular in Norway and continually score high in consumer tests. But I've already sold my soul to google so losing various google services could easily be a deal breaker for me. As far as privacy and stuff goes, China is not on the top of my lists of concerns.
     
  5. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Replacing that chip production will just be a matter of time. Will only increase the diverge (who knows what hidden circuits are hidden in those Chinese chips => vulnerable in terms of realty and fake reality => the effect the same diverge)

    Has China its own replacement of Google at comparable quality level ?
     
  6. wolfigor

    wolfigor Chieftain

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    "Replacement of Google" needs to be broken down into components:
    1. Search
    2. Essential apps (e.g. googlemaps)
    3. Apps ecosystem and appstore
    4. Google modules on Android ( the two panes on the right: https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/11-1-980x723.jpg )
    5. Location framework (which helps the phone to get accuare position from trinagulation from WiFi etc.)
    6. lot of other stuff that I can forget at this time in the morning :)
    Huawei and Chinese companies have replacement (of various quality) for most of the above but not for everything that is needed to get parity with the Google-Android ecosystem.
    Even parity is not enough, it needs compatibility too... which is a huge pain to keep going.

    There is a good article on this subject (Hardware and Software) that is a must reading before talking about this topic:
    https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/201...at-the-hardware-and-software-supply-problems/



    On the other end, it's very possible that all main Chinese vendors will gang together sponsored by the Chinese government: Huawei, BKK (Oppo, oneplus, etc), Vivo, Transsion (Itel, Tecno, Infinix, Spice), etc. may all transition to the Chinese replacement for the Android Ecosystem.
    Other minor brands completely dependant on Chinese supply (Cherry, Micromax, Lava, etc.) may get to swallow such system too instead of Google-Android.

    Bigger brands such as HMD (Nokia), Lenovo-Motorola, will be able to still deliver on Google-Android even if they arevery much dependant (or based in) China.
     
    Dachs, hobbsyoyo, Perfection and 4 others like this.
  7. Grisu

    Grisu Draghetto Moderator

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    Kinda similar here. I own the P20 Pro and so far love it, easily the best phone i ever owned (previous ones were mainly Galaxy phones). I think the hardware ban won't hurt them that much. they have the means to replace chips with non-US makes in time. The google services, however, are more hurtful. Even if they launch a new OS that's every bit as good as Android or iOS they'll still be lacking the google services and a ton of Apps that many users like, which will make it a very tough sell. Long term, however I think this move may hurt the US, though. Not just China might realize now, that we're way too dependent on US services, and a single signature from an unstable president can apparently stop all those services for us. In the end the only sensible approach for everybody outside the US would be to strive for more independent alternatives to Google, etc.
     
    Silurian likes this.
  8. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Chipmaker ARM has decided that their licenses to Huawei are banned as well.

     
  9. wolfigor

    wolfigor Chieftain

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    Yes, you are right.
    In the lower end, they can source chipset from Mediatek and Spreadtrum (the only competitors to Qualcomm).
    However both rely on ARM design which may be an issue (not sure, it gets quite indirect).
    The main issue of low end is that is really crowded and margins are close to zero: the big profitability is in the high-end.

    Yesterday I was at the presentation in London for the new "Honor 20" line of smartphones from Huawei... Amazing stuff.
    The camera is beyond incredible and all powered by a superpowerful the Kirin 680 from HiSilicon (the Huawei CPU), all at very convenient price.
    They do make amazing hardware and somehow it's a pity that such handset maybe the first victim (if they can bring them all in the market before the 90 days of grace they got)
     
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  10. Perfection

    Perfection The Great Head.

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    I cannot in good conscience support a company that devolops and manufactures smartphones filled with hooks for police state to oppress its own population.

    I will never buy a Huawei phone.

    Furthermore when I specify electronic components (which i do frequently as a hardware devoper), I try to avoid Chinese companies, particularly for connectivity products.

    I wish I could be more supportive of Chinese engineering and development but a govermenr that bans Winnie the Pooh because people we're using him to mock their leader should not be entrusted with the world's IT infrastructure.
     
    Quintillus, haroon, Cheetah and 6 others like this.
  11. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    How do the alleged backdoors in Huawei differ from alleged backdoors in Microsoft products? To my knowledge, we actually have better evidence of the latter so far.

    If you have known backdoors, how much does the country of origin of the particular company matter? What would stop Chinese hackers from using known backdoors left by American companies?

    I distrust China and despise their social credit garbage, but I'm not seeing any consistency in policy from the US on this. If there actually *is* some consistency that I'm missing, I'd be curious to see it.
     
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  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    I have no illusions on illegally obtained intelligence by the US on my country and my fellow citizens.
    But if I have to choose between the US and China from electric consumer devices, etc... it is for me a no-brainer to prefer the US.
    One Trump is still no "winter is coming".
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  13. Snerk

    Snerk Smeghead

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    I'm equally critical of the Chinese government's approach to human rights. My question would be if there is any hard evidence that the tech company Huawei is worse (or equally terrible) than the competition when it comes to these matters?
     
  14. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Well, if a company is shown to have acted illegally, the ability to sue and jail is very dependent on whether the executive staff is within range of the government. Your trusting 'deterrence' either way The Huawei executives have to operate as the CPC tells them to. What amount is the CPC capable of being deterred?
     
  15. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Warlord

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    It seems that we're in the process of answering that question.
     
  16. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    I neither trust the market forces nor the regulators to figure out if Huawei introduces a real threat
     
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  17. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Its is a pity the trade war has silenced most of Chinese pro-western, pro trade government voices with the removal of several high ranking officials and these have been replaced with hardliners
    In the end, the EU buys gas from Russia, world buys petrol from the middle east and the US sells its arms widely its seems to be an uphill fight
     
  18. wolfigor

    wolfigor Chieftain

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    Huawei has today (Q1-2019) 19.0% of the world shipments of smartphones. This includes domestic Chinese market (which is not completely open to western brands)... I think they are now having about 50% of their shipments outside China.

    Anywa, if we look at Chinese vendors:
    Huawei: 19.0%
    Xiaomi: 8.0%
    Vivo: 7.5%
    Oppo: 7.4%
    The only non-chinese in the top manufactirers are Samsung (23.1%) and Apple (11.7%).

    If those main Chinese manufacturers gangs together they command 41.9% of the worldwide shipments, and even more if we add the minor brands.
    That's a complete dominance of mobile market!
     
    Silurian likes this.
  19. Takhisis

    Takhisis ΑΛΗΘΩС ΑΝΕСΤΗ

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    up yours!
    You should read up on how Chinese financial aid to third-world countries comes with part of the money being used to pay for Chinese firms (Huawei and others) to install surveillance systems in those countries behind the backs of the peoples they spy on.

    They allegedly stop crime. They actually don't. They allegedly won't be used to spy on political opponents and dissenters. They actually are.
     
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  20. uppi

    uppi Warlord

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    Smartphones are of minor concern, because the you would be lucky to get updates for the old ones, anyway and for new ones you can just switch to another manufacturer. The real issue is the network equipment which cannot be easily replaced. In the worst case, this act of economic terrorism could prevent Huawei from manufacturing spare parts and entire cell phone networks could break down.
     
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