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Strategic victory for Huawei.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Silurian, May 20, 2019.

  1. Quintillus

    Quintillus Archiving Civ3 Content Supporter

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    While this does encourage China to develop its own alternatives to western products, I don't see it being in any way a net positive for China. Even if the alternatives were to become popular in China - and some, such as Baidu for search, already are - it would be a much more difficult battle internationally, and there is a lot of export market share to be lost. And the precedent for success internationally is hard to find - off the top of my head, the only example that comes to mind as developed in China and popular internationally is TikTok. Maybe there's a Tencent program or two that counts as well, but if you exclude Tencent/Alibaba acquisitions, there's not a lot.

    Hardware-wise, the chances may be better. But there was already the chance to use domestic Chinese semiconductor chips in preference to ARM/Intel/MIPS based designs. This adds a little incentive to do that more, but again doesn't have much impact on the chances of that hardware succeeding internationally.

    As for myself, I agree with Perfection. I'd be suspicious of any Chinese phone given their government's proclivity towards surveillance, but Huawei has had a disproportionate amount of smoke around them, and their network hardware only raises the concerns. On the network hardware side, I think it makes a lot of geopolitical sense that the U.S. is pushing NATO allies to not use Huawei equipment to build out their networks - it's kind of like asking NATO allies in the Cold War not to build out their TV or radio networks with Soviet equipment, if the USSR had been more export-oriented. Even if the current software on the routers is perfectly harmless, what's to prevent Huawei from pushing out a malicious, spying, or censorship-inducing update at the request of the Chinese government?

    This also gets back to the reason why, although I'm very much anti-Trump, I'm somewhat supportive of the trade war with China. There's the Huawei-based network buildouts. And the espionage, both domestically (surveillance state), industrial (stealing trade secrets), and quite possibly diplomatically (what Takhisis mentioned, which I have not read as much about... but there's certainly a lot of favor-currying going on with infrastructure build-out in developing countries). And finally, last but not least, the required technology transfers. Essentially, saying that if you want to do business in China, you have to share your trade secrets with a local Chinese firm. This isn't just the things that are actually required to do the job - e.g. you need a certain amount of knowledge to set up a factory to make something - but the crown jewels themselves. Usually, a few years down the line, you wind up with a suspiciously similar domestic Chinese competitor, which usually also has preferential status from the government. If China were ideologically similar to the U.S., perhaps you could turn a blind eye and say it's a clever way for them to accelerate their technology development. But combined with the espionage, surveillance, and non-democratic Communist Party control, and I'd be legitimately disappointed in the U.S. government if the trade war ended with only a "we'll buy more American products" and not also a "we'll stop requiring technology transfers".

    And I should note the technology transfers are not targeting just the U.S. The European Chambers of commerce released a report just last week complaining about the same thing, and noting that twice as many companies reported being compelled to transfer technology as just two years before.
     
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  2. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    It's not as if this move was a surprise. Spare parts are very seldom necessary. Most equipment is standards-based and interchangeable with that of other manufactures, though with organizational and training costs.

    Things would be different if the US had not struck now, as Huawei was involved in building a number of new networks with new technology where finding other suppliers would be hard now. As things are those can be delayed, the world didn't actually need 5G or whatever. This embargo happened at the last possible time, one year lated I don't think it could be done, now I'm betting it can. And it can delay china a lot... if the US government sticks to it. Trump being how we all have seen, that is not a given.

    As clashes of imperial ambitions go, this beats outright war I guess.
     
  3. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Its funny because if Huawei was really a threat then Trump wouldnt be offering to lift the ban as part of the negotiation process which Trump having just banned less then a week ago
    Look at Trumps steel and Aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico which were done as a national security threat, and now these have been lifted. What happened to national security ?

    Its dumb because its Trump is making it up as he goes along, else the US would have prepared their economy, and carefully planned ahead
    US seems to be just flailing around at everyone at random.
     
  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    That's a good point !

    "National security" is getting overwhelmed by politics in some countries.

    How useful for some other countries !
     
  5. uppi

    uppi Warlord

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    "Seldom" means about once every two years. Huawei equipment is quite reliable, so it might be a bit less than that. Nevertheless, you have a few months until things start really crumbling, but not much more.

    Unfortunately, this is untrue. Most mobile network operators have given up running multi-vendor networks, because there are too many issues with interoperability, despite all the standards - there is little incentive for the vendors to strictly adhere to these. Of course, you can throw it all out and rebuild, but this would be a multi-billion dollar project for a large carrier and highly disruptive to the network.
     
  6. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    No, there's never been any credible evidence of the latter. Back-door nonsense

    I'm doubtful there are actually government-mandated backdoors in Huawei export products, but it hardly matters, because their security engineering practices are so shoddy: UK cyber security officials report Huawei’s security practices are a mess
     
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  7. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    So things have gotten worse since 3G tech days?

    Can't pity them who chose to go all in on one vendor. They knew the risks.
     
  8. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    It is horribly disgusting how people in the city I live in are more or less unbothered by the fact that the city administration has passed a law to install 300 security cameras. Already in the past the previous governor imposed a stupid law that means people in the province around the (thankfully autonomous) city have to wear helmets with their licence plates printed on them if they want to ride motorcycles, because this allegedly stops crime. It is growing ever closer to the times 40 years ago when the US-trained, Soviet-financed dictators mandated that not having one's official ID papers was a de facto imprisonable offence.
     
  9. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    If you're, say, a network operator in Spain, I don't know that hedging against the risk of a moron in the White House by paying more for your infrastructure hardware is a reasonable ask.
     
  10. uppi

    uppi Warlord

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    I don't know how bad it was with 3G.

    Operators in larger countries usually haven't gone all in with one vendor, but have split vendors by region. Customers expect to be able to move around with their devices without dropping the connection. Having an alternative vendor makes switching easier of course, but it still needs to be done at massive cost and disruption.
     
  11. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    The real solution is a societal change that means we do not need to be online all the time, but I am in a disturbingly small minority on that regard.
     
  12. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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    It’s funny that people, on one hand, proclaim their worry about surveillance and on the other carry a smartphone in their pocket. I mean, if you want to be all James Bond about it, masterfully evading surveillance, leave smartphone in one place and be in the other. Whatever the region, they will be keeping tabs on you (spying) for commercial/security purposes. The naivety “Huawei spying on you” prompts another: and Google doesn’t? Apple/Microsoft doesn’t? Everyone will spy on you, most of the services found in a smartphone. If you want none of that, don’t use a smartphone..

    Well, on average you’ve been writing a message every 3 hours to this board during last 14 years. I wonder what a majority online user looks like? Sorry for this little act of espionage :)
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2019
  13. Perfection

    Perfection The Great Head.

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    I don't know anything for certain. These backdoors are by nature secretive. I do not pretend to know all the shady dealings going on. What I can say is that the Chinese government routinely and fairly openly uses technological means to quash internal dissent. I cannot abide by that.

    If American companies found out that Chinese government hackers were using backdoors they'd probably close them.

    I have absolutely no faith that Trump and his league of morons have anything resembling a consistent policy. This was my stance on Huawei before the Trump administration's actions and will remain my stance regardless of whatever BS story they're feeding me tomorrow.

    My primary concern is the coziness of Huawei to the Chinese government in itself. These backdoors can come and go in a single update. If the Chinese government wanted to install one on a Huawei product it could much more easily then a non-Huawei product because it has great pull within the corporate structure.

    I draw a distinction between scammers/advertisers/trolls and oppressive governments.
     
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  14. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    I don't find it especially funny, or even notable. You're trying to draw false equivalences without the technical depth to have a meaningfully accurate conversation.
     
  15. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Correct me if I am wrong, but we very often just apply the manufacturer's recommended update as soon as it comes in, right? I see over and over that we should.

    Perfection raises a good point, then. Cannot a manufacturer merely intentionally program in a 'problem' into one of their updates, and then take advantage of the chaos over the next four days? It's not even a card you only get to play once, since the recovery from such a move would also be devastating. Sure, every network can 'restore backup' to undo the recent patch in order to close the hostile backdoor, but until that hardware component is replaced, there are no real updates available.
     
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  16. uppi

    uppi Warlord

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    It's worse. If someone manages to remotely shut down a network, you cannot easily undo it, because the commands to restore all devices to their (hopefully existent) backups would have to run over the network - which is shut down.
     
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  17. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    Let's see, for purposes of rounding it's 42k posts in nearly 14 years. That's 3k a year, so fewer than 10 posts a day on average. 8,3, according to some quick basic calculator-assisted calculations.
    Of course, that is on average, because there's days or even weeks during which I do not post and so on… but, anyway, what was the point of this little diversion? I decided to do some basic maths, but I'm not even sure what I'm supposed to answer except that you were vaguely taking a personal dig at me for some reason and I cannot even fathom why. But, at least, thanks for helping me enlarge my postcount.

    For the rest of your post, see the replies by Zelig and Perfection.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2019
  18. Hamid.H

    Hamid.H Chieftain

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    huawei is finished in the west. this isnt a strategic victory it a new parallel system of infrastructure that will be used to spy on citizens for the chinese similarly to how western companies spy on everyone. the internet isnt private.

    hh
     
  19. Takhisis

    Takhisis excuse me

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    up yours!
    *mentally substitutes in proper punctuation and capitalisation to make the message readable*

    What is your solution to this, then, Hamid?
     
  20. Hamid.H

    Hamid.H Chieftain

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    am i expected to have one? im simply making an objective observation. i guess the thrust of my statement was the futility of arguing for, or against huawei, or the more american based companies. same manure, different bucket.

    hh
     

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