Zardnaar
Deity
I have a hypothetical question for the forums. Here we have proportional voting, 51% wins. For this scenario there's 4 parties that matter.
National 46%
Labour 37%
Greens 5%
New Zealand First. 6%
% is approximate numbers off the top of my head from the last election. Due to decimals and rounding the 48% is 51 or 52%.
Labour and Greens are fairly self explanatory if you're familiar with the left outside the states. National would roughly be old Rockefeller Republicans, NZ First slightly conservative blue dog democrats. National neo liberal, not that conservative, NZ first small c conservative socially, won't sign off in tax increases pre Covid but didn't sign up for tax cuts either. A small % of National are conservative with a hard C which are about as hard right it gets here.
So we could be seeing a repeat of 2002. In that election Labour was polling get high support for National collapsed. National voters strategically voted for NZ first as coalition partner to lock out the Greens.
National had unpopular leader, is polling in the low to mid 30s and Labour has popular, charismatic, female leader. There's speculation they might cross the 51% alone, never been done before probably a bit optimistic. Jacinda approval ratings are 87-93% support. The opposition leader is around 11%.
There's speculation he might get rolled but no one really wants the job. They've also stopped releasing internal polling numbers.
So assuming Labour has probably won and heading towards a blowout there's several strategic votes that can come up.
1. National is gonna get a hiding. You like National but might consider voting NZ First. You don't particularly like then but if they're the bigger party than the Greens and/or the Greens fail to get into parliament you prefer Labour/NZ First vs the triple coalition or even worse Labour+Greens. Your electoral vote doesn't matter.
2. You are a Labour voter in a safe Labour seat. Your leader is so popular though she might suck up support from the Greens who are on 5%. That number is the threshold. If the Greens fall below that number they can be out of parliment. You live in the seat where the greens enjoy the most support. A smart vote could gift the seat to the greens which negates the 5% requirement giving the greens 5-6 seats on 4.XYZ% of the vote. What if Labour does a deal and tells you to vote split in your Electorate?
So here is two scenarios. Do you party vote for your regular party no matter what. Or do you vote strategically and vote split for a different candidate or party in order to help your side out or mitigate the makeup of the next parliment? You get two votes here one for the local candidate, one for the party. The party vote determines who rules, the candidate vote can change the faces of who rules.
National 46%
Labour 37%
Greens 5%
New Zealand First. 6%
% is approximate numbers off the top of my head from the last election. Due to decimals and rounding the 48% is 51 or 52%.
Labour and Greens are fairly self explanatory if you're familiar with the left outside the states. National would roughly be old Rockefeller Republicans, NZ First slightly conservative blue dog democrats. National neo liberal, not that conservative, NZ first small c conservative socially, won't sign off in tax increases pre Covid but didn't sign up for tax cuts either. A small % of National are conservative with a hard C which are about as hard right it gets here.
So we could be seeing a repeat of 2002. In that election Labour was polling get high support for National collapsed. National voters strategically voted for NZ first as coalition partner to lock out the Greens.
National had unpopular leader, is polling in the low to mid 30s and Labour has popular, charismatic, female leader. There's speculation they might cross the 51% alone, never been done before probably a bit optimistic. Jacinda approval ratings are 87-93% support. The opposition leader is around 11%.
There's speculation he might get rolled but no one really wants the job. They've also stopped releasing internal polling numbers.
So assuming Labour has probably won and heading towards a blowout there's several strategic votes that can come up.
1. National is gonna get a hiding. You like National but might consider voting NZ First. You don't particularly like then but if they're the bigger party than the Greens and/or the Greens fail to get into parliament you prefer Labour/NZ First vs the triple coalition or even worse Labour+Greens. Your electoral vote doesn't matter.
2. You are a Labour voter in a safe Labour seat. Your leader is so popular though she might suck up support from the Greens who are on 5%. That number is the threshold. If the Greens fall below that number they can be out of parliment. You live in the seat where the greens enjoy the most support. A smart vote could gift the seat to the greens which negates the 5% requirement giving the greens 5-6 seats on 4.XYZ% of the vote. What if Labour does a deal and tells you to vote split in your Electorate?
So here is two scenarios. Do you party vote for your regular party no matter what. Or do you vote strategically and vote split for a different candidate or party in order to help your side out or mitigate the makeup of the next parliment? You get two votes here one for the local candidate, one for the party. The party vote determines who rules, the candidate vote can change the faces of who rules.