1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Suffering at the hands of the RNG

Discussion in 'Civ4 - General Discussions' started by Lemon Merchant, Apr 13, 2013.

  1. Drakarska

    Drakarska Epic Dadness

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2010
    Messages:
    2,576
    Location:
    Twilight Zone
    Thx. Remind me to tell you of The Great Plains Rodeo Round Up sometime if you ever need another chuckle. I got a few of those stories. The best ones are with my 4 boys in a team play vs AI's while the significant other sympathizes about how cruel the AI's are, sighs, and makes snacks for us all :cool:.
     
  2. Lemon Merchant

    Lemon Merchant Disinterested Observer Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    8,052
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    Red Sector A
    Come on, then. Don't leave us all in suspense. :)
     
  3. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    I figure he already hit the highlight...snacks!
     
  4. Drakarska

    Drakarska Epic Dadness

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2010
    Messages:
    2,576
    Location:
    Twilight Zone
    warning, fairly long post for the Great Plains Rodeo Roundup :)

    Spoiler :
    This is Stan Blather, We interrupt our regularly scheduled programming for the latest update on The Great Plains Rodeo Roundup; Rob? What is the situation out there?

    Rob; This is Rob Lostass, We're here at the 25th annual GPRRU where the odds on favorite Egypt suffered a stunning upset do to RNG, we are currently still trying to gather details.

    Stan; Can you give us some history details for our viewers who have just joined us Rob?

    Rob; Certainly Stan. The GPRRU was initiated over 20yrs ago by the United Nations to assist in alleviating the many wars that plagued the world. Each civilization that enters is picked by random draw and then starts in a random location on a computerized map. Each civilization is required to pay 1% of their annual GNP in order to enter the event, verified by an authorized UN Auditor, which has been a requirement since the Aztec Scandal of year 3. The winner of the Roundup gains 80% of the total entry fee for a year, with the other 20% going to the UN in order to maintain the Rodeo. Also there is a great deal of Prestige and the coveted GPRRU Trophy, and the Civilization being placed in The Grand Hall of Fame.

    Stan; I see Rob, and for those who are further interested in the detailed history of the Rodeo, they can check the GPRRU’s website, or that of the UN”s?

    Rob; um, yes Stan that would be the best way to go.

    Stan; what were the particulars of this years map Rob?

    Rob; well Stan, there has been some controversy for this years settings. Russia has been complaining bitterly about the new Rule 47b change, while England’s been suspected of allegedly trying to get the Rule 22w modified via some well place bribes. Then of course the Aztec shenanigans of Rule 107m are always good for a chuckle or two.

    Stan; I see Rob. For those viewers who are not familiar with the rules, could you briefly explain those changes please?

    Rob; <sighs> certainly Stan, Rule 47b deals with Barbarians, Rule 22w deals with amount of water on the map, and Rule 107m deals with mountains.

    Stan; <long pause> I see. Perhaps you could expand a bit on those changes Rob.

    Rob; definitely Stan. I recommend the GPRRU&#8217;s website.

    Stan; <longer pause> Right. Wasn&#8217;t there some concerns over the USA&#8217;s entry this year Rob?

    Rob; Yes Stan, there was.

    Stan; <looking miffed> and what was the particulars of that Rob?

    Rob; The Americans only managed to make the entry in time after the Senate came out of Sequester. As you know, the new proposed golf tax on all elected officials has been a huge debate here in the States.

    Stan; I see Rob. So what were the final settings for the Rodeo, and who was chosen as this years Overseer of the Rodeo?

    Rob; well Stan, we have a real treat for the viewers at home this year. GPRRU Officials managed to get the acclaimed Nobel Prize Winner for Philosophy, Affor Ness. The final settings for this years map are the following: Huge map, 14 country&#8217;s entered this year, raging barbs (much to the chagrin of Russia Stan), usable mountains (to the glee of the Aztecs Stan), Advanced Diplomacy (Germany is still protesting Stan), Limited religions (Spain is absolutely livid Stan), Advanced combat options (which was universally approved by all entrants Stan, go figure), then The Overseer used the Rule 4 options clause, and added random events and variable weather conditions ( Persia filed a formal UN protest Stan, there may be further diplomatic repercussions), and all victories conditions are available.

    Stan; that&#8217;s incredible Rob, so what seems to be the controversy over the RNG? Egypt was favored to win this year due to their improved war chariot design as approved by GPRRU Officiating Board of Unit Approval.

    Rob; well Stan, Egypt&#8217;s complaint is two-fold. One, that there was only six tiles on the entire map that contained horses, and two, that all horse tiles were within a ten tile radius of a size six barbarian city.

    Stan; well Rob, isn&#8217;t that just part of the map generation process? While I understand that this takes away a valuable UU for Egypt, part of the process is adjusting for this, correct?

    Rob; certainly Stan, according to the tech logs, after Egypt failed to get horses, they went after Bronze Working next.

    Stan; An excellent plan B Rob, what happened next?

    Rob; well Stan, this was one for the history books. Egypt rebounded quickly after finding 2 copper on plains hills in their initial BFC, and another copper on a plains hill in the city of Memphis.

    Stan; wow Rob, impressive. Continue.

    Rob; well Stan, Egypt really went to town. A quick axe rush took out Japan (who for some reason only had 1 worker out ), then another quick rush took out Greece (vid cams show Greece brushing his hair during that time Stan). After that, Egypt did some exploration, and seemed to focus on science and improving their infrastructure.
    Stan; that seems like a good strategy Rob, how did it work out?

    Rob; really well Stan. Egypt zipped thru the eras fairly quickly, gaining some key Wonders to help improve their position.

    Stan; sounds exciting Rob, so was anyone a serious threat to Egypt?

    Rob; well Stan, Egypt wasn&#8217;t a runaway as they had the Sioux and the Russians nipping at their heels. But some good planning, a strong army, and some key diplomatic agreements kept Egypt in the lead.

    Stan; impressive Rob, what went wrong?

    Rob; that is where the major RNG controversy is Stan. The Sioux were going for a cultural victory, the Russians and Egypt were both going for a space victory, with both civilizations being close to launch. Egypt was brilliant Stan, they planned a well coordinated attack versus the production city of Leningrad, and managed to get it down to 1 wounded machine gunner before they could take the city.

    Stan; So where is the RNG controversy Rob?

    Rob; well Stan, apparently the random events happened. Just before Egypt&#8217;s turn, an earthquake happened on the tile of 12 Egyptian infantry, causing significant injury to the units.

    Stan; ouch Rob, that&#8217;ll leave a mark. What happened next?

    Rob; well Stan, Egypt decided to go ahead and attack any way, as the odds calculator gave them a 97% chance at victory. They lost the attack.

    Stan; aw crap!

    Rob; well-said Stan. Egypt was livid. To add insult to injury, the Sioux won by cultural victory 20 turns later.

    Stan; Ouch Rob.

    Rob; exactly Stan. Wait a minute; I am now getting reports that Egypt has officially filed a formal protest with the GPRRU. We&#8217;ll keep you updated as events progress, back to you Stan.

    Stan; thank you Rob. This is Stan Blather; stay tuned as this momentous occasion unfolds. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
     
  5. Fippy

    Fippy Mycro Junkie Queen

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2013
    Messages:
    11,631
    Gender:
    Female
    No i really mean 99% and if she really got that more than 2x in this game then maybe she should play the lottery.
     
  6. Lemon Merchant

    Lemon Merchant Disinterested Observer Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    8,052
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    Red Sector A
    I guess I'll go and buy some lottery tickets.
     
  7. Tlalynet

    Tlalynet Emperor

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2007
    Messages:
    1,048
    Lotteries are way, way less likely than missing 2 or even 20 99% rolls in any given game. We're not even talking consecutive 99% rolls here, they're not even that rare.

    I work in casino gaming, I've handed out several .5% or less hands in the course of 10 hands or less on numerous occasions. It's rare, its nice, but it's not unheard of.

    Given how much a regular player calls the combat engine you should (and I think most players actually do) expect this kind of thing to happen from time to time.

    Now, compare the chances of getting several >1% chances in a short span of time to the odd of giving out a progressive jackpot quality hand. That's a whole order of magnitude rarer. I've never done it, most dealers won't see it in years if ever.

    Then compare that to a lotto win, thats yet another order of magnitude rarer than that. The odds are against you even knowing someone personally who has won such a thing. The odds are against you knowing someone who knows someone who has won something like that. It's many leagues rarer.

    In the grand scheme of things 99% isn't that big.
     
  8. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    Just ran the math. If you fight 69 battles at 99.0% odds there is a 50/50 chance of losing one of them. More relevant, if you fight at 95% odds it only takes 15 to have a 50/50 chance for a loss. Lots of times that might be a single stack.
     
  9. Fippy

    Fippy Mycro Junkie Queen

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2013
    Messages:
    11,631
    Gender:
    Female
    But we not arguing about 69 99% battles (if it's not higher, 99.2 or so..), it's maybe...10?
    How often do you attack archers on open field?
    Chances of losing 2 out of 10 should be way up at 1:5000 etc.
     
  10. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    Actually, at 1% chance of winning the AI odds of winning two IN A ROW are only 1 in ten thousand, so their chances of winning two out of ten are nowhere near as bad as 1 in 5000. Probably around one in 2000, but it's too early in the morning to go back to the calculator.

    EDIT...couldn't stand it.

    At 99% the chances of winning all ten is 90.4%. AI chance to win one 9.6%. The nine remaining battles your chance of winning them all is 91.4%. AI chance to win one 8.6%. 0.096 x 0.086 = 0.008256, so chance of AI winning two out of ten 99% battles is 0.8%, almost one in a hundred. So my one in 2000 was waaaaaay off.
     
  11. Lemon Merchant

    Lemon Merchant Disinterested Observer Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    8,052
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    Red Sector A
    I never said that I attacked the archers. I was just walking by.
     
  12. God-Emperor

    God-Emperor Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2009
    Messages:
    3,551
    Location:
    Texas
    Ah, I see. You were just out for a nice casual stroll with your 5000 bestest friends, some of whom happened to have brought their pet horses and others of whom happened to bring along their decorative swords and shields for you to look at. Then those evil archers jumped you for no reason at all.
     
  13. Tlalynet

    Tlalynet Emperor

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2007
    Messages:
    1,048
    You even factored the diminishing returns on percentages. Nice work.

    Most people assume that after 50 battles they'll hit that 50/50 mark.

    In an early game 20+ battles is not far off. More importantly, you're not understanding how random works. Random only gets to its expected averedge over the very long term, the short term instances that make up that long term are normally comped of outcomes that people would not expect and think of in that limited sample as being extreme rarities.

    It's not just that she lost two out of those ten hypothetical battles. Its that she lost two out of those ten hypothetical battles that one game out of fifty played, making the actual number of important early game battles 500. In the long term she probably only lost the expected 4-6 of those 99% battles, but two of the losses happened to be in the same game, which is also not in an of itself unusual.

    In fact, given Tim's math in the post after this one where losing two out of ten has a .8% chance of happening, after 50 games the odds of losing 2 of the first 10 99% chance in any one of those games is a whopping 40%. (.8% being 1:125, the math is nice and even if you run that chance 50 times).



    I'd be really amazed if Lemon had only played 50 games :p.


    I've taken so much money from people at Roulette because black hit 8+ times in a row so they think red is a 'sure thing'. It's somewhere between sad and comical.
     
  14. Lemon Merchant

    Lemon Merchant Disinterested Observer Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    8,052
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    Red Sector A
    :lol::lol:

    Yes, that's sort of like what happened. Except in my stroll, I had plans to disconnect Izzy's iron and horses. Maybe the evil archers were psychic and figured it out. ;)

    So would I. I've been playing for five years. :D

    I'm useless at math, but as I understand how "randomness" works, one can flip a coin 10,000 times and get a result of approximately 50/50, heads vs. tails. However, that same coin can be flipped 20 times in a row and land on heads each time, as it has a random chance to fall on heads or tails. Would this not be correct?

    ------------------------------------------------

    At the beginning of this thread I was complaining about losing a whack-load of units to the RNG. I know that the odds are against this sort of thing happening on a consistent basis, but keep in mind that what I was talking about is an unusually bad run of luck. My intent was not to ignite an argument about random theory. Those have been done to death. One only has to look at the many "Civ cheats" threads to have a complete discussion of the word random, and some chaos theory, too.

    I'm sorry for starting an argument.
     
  15. Mec AntiKythera

    Mec AntiKythera King

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2010
    Messages:
    980
    Yes, that is absolutely correct.

    You lost 77(+) units that early in the game? I don't remember ever having near that number, let alone losing them all. Those archers must have had something fantastic for breakfast. Check the log, I want to know what they ate that day. Omelets from Spanish War Chickens perhaps, 99.5% chance.
     
  16. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    Lemon you have made contributions to a sufficient level where you should never apologize for anything.

    I wasn't trying to argue by the way, just pointing out that the RNG is very harsh over the long haul...something I tend to forget in the heat of the moment. That's why I seldom have enough units to accomplish what I think I can.
     
  17. AdamCrock

    AdamCrock Polish Pudding

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2012
    Messages:
    5,020
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Nibylandia
    Ah.... math...... this is what happens when we try to apply strict rules with a strict laws to our strict minds - living in a world that is completely random ! xD I say the coin will end up standing on edge like this :D :

    :D

    And this is a metaphorically saying what happend to You :D


    edit 2:
    ------
    *warning* completely random rant about the things You would never like to hear :D (although they *probably* exist :D
    Obviously You have not studied quantum physics :lol: You see - in simple words : modern physics rely on a "chance" of the electron being there (in atom :nuke: ) not actually electron *being* there :D It's all probability mechanics when You go deep down into the micro-world You can never tell if it is there or not - You can only guess (with a certain mathematical degree of accuracy) ;) this is where the math fails to grasp the nature of things in the universe :crazyeye: :mischief: ... or the things are just happening too fast to mesure at any rate :D
    ------
     

    Attached Files:

  18. Tlalynet

    Tlalynet Emperor

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2007
    Messages:
    1,048
     
  19. Fippy

    Fippy Mycro Junkie Queen

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2013
    Messages:
    11,631
    Gender:
    Female
    lol what's your problem, of course something was/is missing here.
    She's not suffering because of rng if she mixes HAs and Swords, and gets attacked by archers.
    I play Civ4 long enough to know that AIs are not attacking with 99% losing odds when they cannot even capture cities by doing so, so how did this work?
    Isa had a stack of 20 archers, waiting to smack her Swords? That's how she lost 70 units? Give me a break..
     
  20. Tlalynet

    Tlalynet Emperor

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2007
    Messages:
    1,048
    You don't see the AI decide to suicide attack things at horrible odds? Really? Are you sure you've been playing this long enough? Cause barring Better AI or other mods that's part of how the human>>>AI at war...

    You should look up some of the fortified CD longbow on a forested fort\hill craziness. I'm sure there are a few threads around here about how bad the AI can be about attacking with bad odds.

    She certainly was suffering at the hands of the RNG. HA\Swords may not be an optimal mix, but it's stronger than what she was facing and shouldn't have had significant problems against things like archers.
     

Share This Page