Sullla's AI Survivor Season Eight - Championship Thread

[Plains-Cow]

The Pasture shall defend its points by any means necessary.

Spoiler ANY. MEANS. :

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

I would be remiss not to immediately apply Keler's data to the championship at hand Mansa Musa is still a frontrunner for first, with Gandhi, Elizabeth, and Qin Shihuang in contention though closer to average. Gandhi in particular is a lot stronger in Keler's data than in the Alternate Histories. Qin leads in second place averages with Churchill and Augustus not too far behind, though the latter is less notable here than in the AH.

I like a metric I call relevance, which is the chance of placing first or second divided by survival. Basically, how likely is an AI to move on given that they survive to the end of the game? Two of the most relevant AIs in the dataset--Mansa Musa and Gandhi--are in this game. Elizabeth is not far behind, while Qin and Augustus are average. In case you can't tell yet, Churchill doesn't have a lot to commend him in the data. In particular, he is the second least relevant AI though still a ways ahead of Frederick.

And three of the most culture-driven leaders are in the championship as well, though I doubt that will surprise anyone!

Qin looks especially sturdy with good survival and the latest average turn for elimination, tied for fourth with Gilgamesh. With equivalent starts and a bottleneck, this could delay or shift the first-to-die target. Sure, Mansa Musa and Augustus could dogpile Qin, but it seems likely the culture-leaders could get into religious wars or Churchill could slam into Gandhi.

First place seems more open. If Gandhi founds too many religions, Elizabeth could easily lock onto space and never look back. This would be even easier if Mansa Musa wars too much. I can also imagine the culture leaders at religious odds with one another giving a diplomatic win to an expansive Augustus. The default is almost certainly a cultural win from one of the western leaders, but I get a sense of more possibilities.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

I would be remiss not to immediately apply Keler's data to the championship at hand Mansa Musa is still a frontrunner for first, with Gandhi, Elizabeth, and Qin Shihuang in contention though closer to average. Gandhi in particular is a lot stronger in Keler's data than in the Alternate Histories. Qin leads in second place averages with Churchill and Augustus not too far behind, though the latter is less notable here than in the AH.

I like a metric I call relevance, which is the chance of placing first or second divided by survival. Basically, how likely is an AI to move on given that they survive to the end of the game? Two of the most relevant AIs in the dataset--Mansa Musa and Gandhi--are in this game. Elizabeth is not far behind, while Qin and Augustus are average. In case you can't tell yet, Churchill doesn't have a lot to commend him in the data. In particular, he is the second least relevant AI though still a ways ahead of Frederick.

And three of the most culture-driven leaders are in the championship as well, though I doubt that will surprise anyone!

Qin looks especially sturdy with good survival and the latest average turn for elimination, tied for fourth with Gilgamesh. With equivalent starts and a bottleneck, this could delay or shift the first-to-die target. Sure, Mansa Musa and Augustus could dogpile Qin, but it seems likely the culture-leaders could get into religious wars or Churchill could slam into Gandhi.

First place seems more open. If Gandhi founds too many religions, Elizabeth could easily lock onto space and never look back. This would be even easier if Mansa Musa wars too much. I can also imagine the culture leaders at religious odds with one another giving a diplomatic win to an expansive Augustus. The default is almost certainly a cultural win from one of the western leaders, but I get a sense of more possibilities.

Gandhi is very boom or bust in my tests. Either dies or wins a very early cultural victory.

I think this setup does favour Gandhi due to the peaceful field and relatively protected start locations.

I'm actually tempted to go for 'no-one' first to die

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

The condition for a nobody-dies game isn't "really peaceful game" so much as "nobody does a good job of conquering anybody else".

With that in mind, this definitely seems like a map where that could be a feasible outcome. Especially if Mansa/Liz/Gandhi puts a short timer on the game.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

The condition for a nobody-dies game isn't "really peaceful game" so much as "nobody does a good job of conquering anybody else".

With that in mind, this definitely seems like a map where that could be a feasible outcome. Especially if Mansa/Liz/Gandhi puts a short timer on the game.

Wars can happen, they just need to drag on enough whilst another AI speedruns a cultural or random diplomatic victory.

I have had it happen once in my tests which ended up being a turn 260 Gandhi cultural victory. Another AI was down to 1 city so it was close.

 

[Hesmyrr]

It'd be epic to see first "no one to die", but unfortunately Augustus is competent enough that I don't see it happening. Maybe dogpile will be less effective though, since what AI really struggles with is multiple fronts and it'll be really hard to have one on this map.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

It'd be epic to see first "no one to die", but unfortunately Augustus is competent enough that I don't see it happening. Maybe dogpile will be less effective though, since what AI really struggles with is multiple fronts and it'll be really hard to have one on this map.

Well I decided to go for 'none' first to die in the end. I was actually surprised to see that I was not on my own and 7 other people have picked it!

I am shocked by how big a favourite Qin is for first to die. Currently 71.8% of the votes (107/149 responses). In my tests Qin has one of the best survival rates overall (tied with Churchill in this lineup) and he is a protective leader.

Compared to just 2 (?) votes for Elizabeth....I had to hover over the pie chart to check that I wasn't being colourblind. It's a symmetrical map but we all know that Lizzy is still going to be useless and let the other AIs grab 'her' land.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Peaceweight! Qin is far more likely to get picked on till he cracks than any of the others. I would be surprised if anybody else came close to his First to Die rate, and totally shocked if anybody else was first to die more often than he.

Liz in particular I think has (slightly) the highest odds of victory in this map.

 

[a pen-dragon]

Concerning FTD picks there is also a clear bias, due to (mostly) trying to find the AI which is most likely to be FTD. Thus the 72% only mean that Qin is the clear (pre-game) favourite for FTD. For real chances I would say Qin 30-50%, Liz, Gandhi 15-25%, others about 10%.

 

[Keler]

I picked Gandhi FTD, and it feels like a bridge between Qin and None
He probably finds a religion and if it is dominant then he wins but if not then we will see what aggressive ai do.

I think there can be scenarios where Qin dies later. Washington was like what? 4th to die in wildcard2?
None FTD usually happens when someone's last city is unreachable. Swallowed by someone turning on culture slider etc.

btw in the map capitals are on ice hills, probably to mark the capital tile while making the map.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Gandhi is very boom or bust in my tests. Either dies or wins a very early cultural victory.

As confirmed by Keler's data...

	1st	2nd	Alive	Eliminated	FTD
Gandhi	18.83%	5.83%	10.76%	27.80%	36.77%

 

[danjuno]

I picked Ghandi precisely because he isn't a chalk pick. This season murders chalk picks.

 

[Plains-Cow]

Embrace the plains-cow, Gandhi.

 

[Kaitzilla]

There can be only one.

Spoiler Championship Picks :

1st - Mansa
2nd - Augustus
1st to die - Qin
9 Wars
Culture
Turn 298

 

[Fippy]

Today's the day where Qin shocks everybody and runs all over the Fluffies

 

[antimony]

I think Fishing starting tech + FIN is extremely strong here, just like it was for Liz in the playoffs. Unfortunately for her, Gandhi and Mansa are there, and it seems unlikely they would both get eliminated or choked enough to not win culture. (Gandhi's position appears safer to me, as he will likely get the first religion and spread it to Liz.)

 

[Thrasybulos]

Went for a trollish pick (haven't made picks for half the games, so no real stakes).

1st: Liz (I agree with Eauxps that she should be slightly more likely to win than Mansa in this setup: too bad Viccy didn't make it, as it would have muddied things a bit)
2nd: Qin (because he usually finds a way)
FTD: Mansa (makes the other picks much more likely)

 

[Fippy]

My troll picks:
Qin wins - Church 2nd - Mansa FTD - Domi

 

[0urBall]

Qin is doomed, he will do something wild like found the 4th religion and make himself a pariah in addition to his PW. Gandhi gets 2 of the first 3 religions which sets the CV train off early. And even the 2 FIN heavyweights can't catch him, not Augustus with his IMP/REX trait. So...

1st - Gandhi
2nd - Churchill
1st to die - Qin
7 Wars
Culture
Turn 290

 

[lymond]

Looking forward to the finale today. I'm not working today and blissfully overcaffeinated , so I will be fully invested in the game today.