Seeding Watch:
Mansa Musa could become the #1 overall seeded leader this week! All he needs is two points and he passes Huayna Capac - and the two will be far enough ahead that nobody else will stand much of a chance of catching up to them.
Pacal and
Gilgamesh are also both Pool One leaders already and could move up further with a successful outing, but nothing too exciting.
Hammurabi has longshot odds to move into Pool Two this week (it would take a three-kill win), while
Elizabeth and
Lincoln are still well out of reach.
This hasn't been a great week for me to focus on AI Survivor, so I've had an especially hard time evaluating this map. That might also be partially due to the fairly strong opinions expressed on why Mansa or Pacal (depending on the poster) is definitely the favorite here, also partly due to the map which in most respects doesn't seem to offer up a ton of major advantages/disadvantages.
Two general trends across the map that hold true for almost all of the leaders (exceptions will be noted further down): it's fairly tight, with not a lot of space for most of the leaders. There won't be many very big cores here, methinks. Secondly, most of the leaders seem poised to have similar levels of early-game happiness. It doesn't seem too likely for that to be a major factor here.
Overall, this game is mostly being billed as a Mansa vs. Pacal showdown, and I have to say that I agree with that. In addition to being two of the best leaders at AI Survivor, they have the two most obvious advantages to their starting positions, and it's hard to imagine somebody else overtaking both of them. The big question is, which of the two will win? I honestly do not know who is more likely to come out on top at this point, if one of them is. Each has his own pros and cons.
Right at the start of the season, when the maps were first revealed, I took note of
Mansa Musa's starting position which I thought was likely to go to him. My thought at the time was that this was a very promising position for him to make the Championship, except that he was probably going to start next to a warmonger who had won Game 1. Well, it's Hammurabi instead, which is a great stroke of luck for Mansa indeed! (Put Kublai there instead and keep everything else the same and I think Mansa is pretty screwed here and the game is a lot more straightforward to read.) Mansa is the one leader with significant backlines to settle, which means he should have one of the biggest civs on the map based solely on peaceful settling. Add in the fact that he's on the right side of the peaceweights, and that he's simply Mansa, and it's clear he's a major major threat to run away with this and return to the Championship once more. The potential problems for Mansa are twofold. One is that his land is uninspiring; I don't think it's terrible, but there's no particular synergy and it's not particularly strong. The hope, then, is that quantity + the leader himself wins out over quality in the long run. The other is diplomatic in nature; Mansa is near the map's sole warmonger, which could prove a problem, and if Hammurabi practices a different religion then he could be a major problem as well.
On the other side of the map,
Pacal has largely the opposite setup. He's more diplomatically in trouble, in the peaceweight minority and surrounded entirely by high peaceweights; if they're feeling aggressive, he could easily have a dogpile on his hands. He also has much less space than Mansa. However, we saw how he dealt with an iffy start in a poor diplomatic environment in his opener, and the Alternate Histories proved that this was no fluke. And his start here is much better: that double gold + starting Mining + Financial = !!!!! Once he reaches Calendar, he has by far the most available luxuries as well for a nice high happy cap. Pacal
is going to get out to a faster start than Mansa; the question will be if he can keep it up. I do think he'll have stiffer competition here than in his opener; Mansa/Liz are simply more threatening than weak Darius/Ramesses/constantly-fighting-the-Celts-Hatty. One more advantage/disadvantage for Pacal: the advantage is that he can easily found an opening religion if he wants to, and that could be a major help, both with Holy City culture and with diplomacy if he spreads it well. Converting Hammurabi and Liz might well be his path to winning the game. On the other hand, a disadvantage that I think tips the scales for me is that his prospects for conquest are quite poor. Pacal is a more peaceful leader who is unlikely to be on the right side of dogpiles and will have a small production base. Prior to unlocking a major tech lead, I don't think he's likely to take significant land, and that could prove the fatal issue against a Mansa who will both start with more land and has better prospects for military expansion (namely Gilgamesh who is likely to be very unpopular).
So I don't really know which leader ought to be favored between the two, but I'm leaning Mansa. He'll have more territory, better expansion prospects, and better diplomacy, and I think that
ought to be enough to outweigh Pacal's richer land. Probably.
The forgotten Financial leader here is
Elizabeth, who not only lacks the track record of Mansa/Pacal but also lacks the specific advantages that they have on this map. Still, she has a shot.
@Thrasybulos brought up the possibility of her moving into the lead off a dogpile of Pacal, and that seems realistic to me, especially if Gilgamesh does give Mansa some trouble. If something does happen to both of the two, Liz is in the best position to take advantage. However, her limited space and peaceful disposition will make it hard for her to take the lead, and I suspect she's most likely to survive without advancing.
Lincoln and
Hammurabi are unpopular leaders in important positions; the central positions allow them to dictate the diplomacy of this game and their intervention could be critical in deciding the outcome. In particular, one of the most important variables might well be whether Hammurabi ends up practicing the same religion as Mansa or as Pacal - if he goes for one of the opening religions and gets it, it's probably curtains for Pacal! His access to both of the frontrunners makes him a major leader to watch; from that central position, he won't stay at peace forever. Depending on how wars and dogpiles play out, the central positions could also give these two good odds at growing (especially off of Gilgamesh for Lincoln and Pacal for Hammurabi) and moving into the score lead. I don't like either's odds of winning with three Financial leaders on the board, but one of them sneaking through in second seems quite feasible - and Hammur I'd probably say is the most likely non-Financial leader to win. He has more space and is a better cultural leader than Lincoln, which I think give him the edge in this central spot. I do have Lincoln in fantasy, though, so I'm hoping he can slide through and sneak out a second place finish. I don't think he's as doomed to irrelevance as a lot of people do.
One spot that might be quite important is that floodplains/corn/pigs/ivory region between Mansa and Hammurabi. If Mansa gets it then it might already be game over! But if Hammur gets it, I think he has pretty good odds of moving on to the Championship.
Finally,
Gilgamesh I think has pretty much no chance of winning. I know, I know, Brennus won twice in the Game 5 AHs, hence why I say "pretty much" no chance instead of going with an absolute. But Gilgamesh is stuck in a corner, with two Financial leaders on the opposite end of the map and another next to him; how the heck is he supposed to keep up with all of them at once? Also I don't think his position itself is very good here, mostly plains and trees around him to make for not a very fast start. Commerce in particular will be limited early on, very bad news with three Financials on the board. I don't think he'll start strong enough for a snowball to be in the cards; maybe he can be strong and threaten Mansa's game, but Thrasy might be right about him being too weak in any case to pose a serious threat.
Overall, it seems extremely likely that either Pacal or Mansa will win, with Liz as the dark-horse candidate. My sense is that they're unlikely to both be strong, though; one or the other will probably get dogpiled into irrelevance at some point (likely based on whom Hammurabi attacks) and I don't fancy either as a great second-place candidate. Could be wrong, though. I think Lincoln and Hammurabi are the most likely runners-up, ironic as they have by far the least support in that category in the picking contest! But dogpile odds for them seem pretty light in this case and I think one can swell to second-place size. (Then again, all four leaders on the edges can declare at Pleased, so maybe the two central leaders are in for a rude shock...) As for First to Die, I'm not too sure about this one and could see anybody as a reasonable candidate, except for Liz whom I think has the safest position. My inclination is Gilgamesh, though, as he's going to get himself in more conflicts than the others and is unlikely to fare very well in them.
Rather than being based on my analysis, my official pick for this game is something of a meme/reference. Specifically, it references
Season 3 Game 5, the game that forever spurred me to stop taking the picking contest seriously. Below I present the "explanation" that went with my entry:
Seven years ago, we had a game featuring many of these same leaders. I picked Lincoln to come in second place. He and Hammurabi worked together to kill Gilgamesh, putting Lincoln in second, and all was well.
Until a runaway Mansa attacked him at the end of the game, for no reason, and ruined my pick.
Now, old wrongs shall be righted and the injustices of the past amended. Once again, Lincoln and Hammurabi shall gang up on Gilgamesh. Once again, Lincoln shall take the bulk of the spoils to move into second place. But this time, Mansa will leave Lincoln alone while waltzing to an easy victory.
And I will finally get my five points.
