now that game is over, I still think even if Pacal did not plot and sit back and built, there would still be a dogpile against Gilgamesh and so Mansa Musa and Elizabeth would expand their civs and have faster tech lead.
Elizabeth got pretty lucky with that Gepid barbarian city snipe as well. That shouldn't really happen in most AHs. Now it is time for me to hope Mansa Musa does not win final game.