First off, I want to note that my post-game analyses here might be shorter for the rest of the season. I'll be doing the official writeups for all remaining games (probably), so I'll probably have less energy to write a bunch here and a lot of what I write would be redundant. I'll try to keep my commentary in here mostly unique...
Anyway, seeding watch for this game! All six leaders are currently unseeded (appropriate for a Wildcard match). Two have the chance to change that here: Catherine currently has 24 points, and needs only a single point to move back into Pool Two (at least briefly). If she gets two kills or comes in second or better, she has fairly strong chances of remaining securing the seeded spot for next season even if she doesn't advance. Zara Yacob has 21 points; realistically, he's probably only going to become a seeded leader again with a win. But if he does win, he's back in Pool Two and has the chance to score more in the playoffs! Either of these advancing would presumably knock Alexander out of Pool Two, although he'll have the opportunity to reclaim that spot in the next game. As for the remaining leaders in this game, all will remain unseeded for now no matter how well they do.
I think both unique factors of this game are quite important in the analysis this week. ONLY first helps, not a strong second place, so a leader being able to map a path to victory is even more important, and the Raging barbs definitely ARE an important factor. Specifically, for the most part, open land around a leader's start position is a major disadvantage in this setup, as it will prolong the period in which they are kept in the stone age by the hordes; too little open land can still be a problem (see Julius Caesar last season), but for the most part a more compact starting area is better here. I think that Joao, Catherine, and Pericles have the advantage in this respect, with Asoka in particular trouble. Another thing to note about the raging barbs, which I learned last season, is that they diminish the importance of a fast start, especially as far as tile improvement techs go. The barbs are probably going to be ripping up almost all of the early tile improvements anyway, so if Pericles has another slow religion-first start, for example, he actually won't be missing out on much! They're a bit of an equalizer in that regard.
As far as paths to victory go, my intuition is that we're highly likely to see either a Cultural or Domination win; I'd be surprised if a spaceship came into play and beat both of those. This is a pretty cultural group, and as Game 5 showed, that does NOT mean that all of the cultural stuff will be spread out too much for somebody to win that way, so I expect that the most common result is somebody flipping on the slider and winning that way without too much trouble. If that doesn't happen, I think it will likely be because Cathy successfully goes on the warpath and wins a Domination victory. Again, I think that both of these victory types would come in quickly enough to rule out the spaceship in most scenarios.
As a result, I have this field split into two groups of leaders. I consider Joao, Zara, and Asoka to have little chance of advancing, and instead think that Hatty, Cathy, and Pericles are the major contenders for the win and playoff berth.
Zara Yacob is the leader whom I think is least likely to win. His position is fairly exposed to the barbs, with a lot of tundra to the north in particular - tundra which will both make his early game more difficult and offer little in return later on - and I don't think he's particularly good at pursuing either a cultural or military victory. Maybe I'll be wrong and he'll execute a strong snowball (certainly if any of the higher peaceweights did, it would be him), but I think it's far more likely that he starts slow and never finds a way to sneak back in front. The quality of his surrounding land is also uninspiring.
Asoka's chances are also grim, as he has the most exposed position. I expect this translates to him getting hit harder by barbs than anybody else, leaving him too far behind to contend. That grassland gems is nice, but it probably won't be connected for very many of the game's first 50 turns! And while there is some nice green land he should be able to get, I think it will be too little, too late. Furthermore, I don't think he has a great setup for either victory condition; he's certainly not a conqueror, and having Organized instead of a cultural trait makes him much less likely to pursue culture, especially with other cultural AIs on the board. As a result, I expect him to chase space, and I don't think that will be a winning strategy here.
Joao II has perhaps the nicest spot on the map of any of these leaders - admittedly, it is quite dry, but it is sheltered from the barbs and has multiple early happiness resources to boot. However, his personality is wrong for this group. He's not going to be strong at culture and he's not going to snowball over so many friendly faces, so I think he gets left in the dust. He's also the only leader in this field who is not Creative and does not start with Mysticism; he's very likely to be strapped for culture early on, and everybody else is guaranteed not to. That alone might be enough of a disadvantage to rule him out as a winner, even before taking other factors into account.
Then there are our three contenders. It's easy to write off Catherine here at first glance, as the only low peaceweight leader and in a central position to boot - dogpile magnet! Except... who's going to actually dogpile her? This group of leaders is peaceful enough that I think it would not be that difficult for her to pull a Hammurabi and kill all of her opponents piecemeal. She starts the game with a secure southern border, which should result in her having less barb trouble and thus a stronger opening, while still having a decent amount of space to expand into. She's then going to try to conquer her neighbors, and if - IF - she chooses her battles wisely and doesn't get backstabbed, I think she could be quite successful. Especially if they start to squabble, or she hits one who's still recovering from the early barb activity, that would be a great way to start a snowball going. If Cathy does win this game, it's going to be by Domination, and if she doesn't, she's probably going to be dead or irrelevant by the end. There are a lot of ways that things could go wrong for her - after all, she is the peaceweight outcast in a central position - but this is one map where I think she can actually make this situation work.
Hatshepsut is currently the narrow community favorite; I suspect this is partially due to just people rooting for her, as well as partially due to belief in her guaranteed War Chariots helping out against the raging barbs. At any rate we certainly will see how useful those really are! I think Hatty has the potential to win, but is certainly not an overwhelming favorite. Her position is average in terms of likely barb activity, not as bad as Zara or Asoka's spots but not as sheltered as Joao or Pericles'. Her surrounding land I'd also call average, a bit food-poor in base terrain it seems but with a good resource situation. And when it comes to winning the game, I think she's easily going to be one of the best candidates for a Cultural victory. She's probably going to pursue that most of the time, and I suspect this is a map where it has a good chance of working. She might well put the game on a countdown, unless Cathy kills her, Cathy goes on a romp in general, or...
Pericles beats her to it! I like Pericles' position for this particular game. He's perhaps best-equipped to handle the raging barbs on this map, with a seafood resource at his capital (immediately improvable and the barbs can't pillage it the same way they can land-based resources), a very close source of copper, and an overall quite sheltered position. He shouldn't have too much trouble with them, and I do think he will also still be able to get enough land to stay competitive. A bit squeezed, but on the other hand, if Cathy does fall to a dogpile, Pericles is in excellent position to capitalize and move into a winning position from there. Pericles also has his cultural focus, and while Hatty may give him some stiff competition, if she spends too much of the early game being hampered by barbs, he'll have the inside track on the later prizes and can potentially pull ahead that way. Pericles was my initial pick for game winner, and I do think he has among the best odds for this particular game.
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. Obviously unlikely in AI Survivor because Deity difficulty, but still, it's a doozy.
