Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game 6 Thread

Kait in first!!!!
:lol: Plains Cow!!!
Kudos to...

Darius, for proactive peacekeeping in border conflicts, unflagging dedication to the arts and sciences, and leading the way into a luminous atomic era 🥇

Mehmed, for losing a complete industrial army on the doorstep of a war-weary, illiterate adversary, held in the tight grip of a warrior caste 🥈

Saladin, for guiding a war-torn world as a light of religious truth and understanding 🥉

Tokugawa, for punishing the arrogance of progress, giving credence to the notion that Samurais are the best counter to Rifles, and making it to the final five off one bag of rice 🥉

Julius Caesar, for targeting a threat and surviving... 🥉


Willem, for rebranding wonders-for-capture arbitrage ⚱️
Will be insanely hard for me to not pick Darius with that start, and so much space.
I don't like JC easy targets close, could get into conflict with Mehmed & Toku easily.
Might be worth picking him still if the contest wouldn't be ~50% JC but they will be, so.. ;)
Everything correct and then i pick bonehead Mehmed..My you will never ever learn.
Had me in stitches from start to finish. My Caesar pick didn't pan out, but watching him slip off to the wildcard by living on two cities was still worth it.

More importantly, just like Hamster in game one, the guy I pick second because he's a wonderhog in a corner with plenty of room ends up taking the gold. GG Darius, looking forward to your horrific death in the playoffs!

Didn't see Willem FTD coming, but happy to see Darius of all people put an end to his shenanigans before they even begin.

You exceeded my expectations, Toku. How on earth did he claw his way out of that tundra start?

Brennus managed to die in a 10-turn spaceship war, very nice.

Mehmed doing Mehmed things. Briefly losing a city with rifles to elephants and Samurai!

Oh, and Saladin existed, I guess. :lol:
Brennus deserved it most imo..he held Darius off (in their first war), and won vs Sally after being backstabbed.

Mehmed was basically bugged with that 1 cat (like Hannibal with the 100t settler in that one game).
And sure Toku did beat JC but that was also backstabbing.
Ah, right. Kinda forgot the game had a second place winner with how badly Darius ran circles around the entire field :crazyeye:
Brennus deserved it most imo..he held Darius off (in their first war), and won vs Sally after being backstabbed.

Mehmed was basically bugged with that 1 cat (like Hannibal with the 100t settler in that one game).
And sure Toku did beat JC but that was also backstabbing.
While I appreciated Brennus' rebound into war against Saladin, Tokugawa's performance was almost endearing to me. The commitment to total war off a bleak starting position and then that counter-offensive into Ottoman lands--it just gives me a glimpse of Tokugawa's potential.

Celtic domination is also something to see, but Brennus couldn't pull it off this season. His diplomacy with Darius really is so bad that if either is still alive at the end of the game, why not knock 'em out of the Wildcard? I do think it can be disappointing when the clear frontrunner with a spaceship en route just obliterates another AI, almost deliberating how long the war would take, but in this case the conflict made sense.
The Youtube video for Game 6 is up for easy rewatch. :)
Spoiler :

An interesting start.
Darius blazed through the tech tree while Mehmed and especially Julius stumbled at the start.

On Turn 61, Julius and Willem were Pleased with each other with the +1 Peace bonus included.
That means +2 or +3 hidden diplomacy points.
Spoiler :
Right away we know that their peace weight difference was not 2.
Dutch were 1st on scoreboard and Rome was 4th, so no +1 hidden "Work together" bonus.
The bonus from peace weight difference must have been +2 or +3 for them to be pleased with +1 visible diplomacy.
Just to clarify for Game 6, I think on turn 0 Julius and Willem in both directions have:

1) A 22.2% chance to start the game Cautious with +1 diplomacy
2) A 44.4% chance to start the game Cautious with +2 diplomacy
3) A 33.3% chance to start the game Pleased with +3 diplomacy

Being Pleased at the start of the game would indicate they both rolled a peace weight of 4, both rolled a peace weight of 5, or both rolled a peace weight of 6.

If they start the game Cautious with each other, on Turn 60 with +1 peace bonus they should have decent odds to get to Pleased at that moment.

However, they can both still plot war against each other at Pleased.
Willem more so than Julius. :backstab:

What other diplo factors will there be?
Well, Julius Caesar is a nut job over border tension.
He can go up to -4 diplo from "our close borders spark tensions" if another civ is his land target and steals 20 or more big fat cross tiles from his cities with superior :culture:.

For the hidden diplomacy beyond peace weights in Game 6:

1) All civs in 4th, 5th, and 6th place on the scoreboard will give +1 hidden diplo to each other.
2) Brennus will give -1 diplo if he slips into 5th place towards the civ in 1st place.
Brennus will also give -1 diplo if he slips into 6th place towards the civs in 1st and 2nd place.
3) Mehmed will give +1 diplo to any civ 3 or more places behind him on the scoreboard. :pat:
This one might matter since he won't plot at Pleased and should have a high population.
Julius was guaranteed to be Pleased with Saladin on Turn 61 due to +1 Warmonger respect.

The AI tend to put their knives into neighbors they share a lot of border tiles with.
Is there a reason Rome ultimately picked Willem to attack and not Saladin?
Let's check it out.

On Turn 68, Julius founded Ravenna on Iron, but did not connect it to his capital with road for a while. (With Stonehenge all cities popped borders after 10 turns)
On Turn 74, Rome founded Arretium to the northeast of Rome.
This caused Saladin to touch 8 Roman Land Tiles for an instant -1 border tension. (Saladin became a Land Target for Julius)
Arretium also was missing 3 big fat cross tiles to Saladin's culture which was only 1 tile away from escalating the border tension to -2 diplomacy.
This probably caused Rome to stay at Pleased with Saladin unless they rolled a peace weight difference of 2. (+1 peace, -1 border tension, +1 warmonger respect, +1 from two peace weight difference would be Cautious)
Spoiler :

Yup, Rome was still Pleased with Saladin. So 0 or 1 peace weight difference.

Turn 74 was the turn that Darius started plotting on Brennus whom he was Annoyed with.
Julius was a Land Target for Saladin with the long shared border, but Saladin was Pleased with Julius and could not plot war even with Bronze hooked up.

Turn 78 Rome hooked up Bronze as indicated by Cumae starting an Axe.
Julius started rolling for war! :ar15:
This is also the turn Ravenna popped borders.
A disaster for the Dutch, this caused Willem to touch 8 of Julius' land tiles, and Willem became a Land Target for Rome with -1 border tension diplo.
This also caused Willem to steal 4 big fat cross tiles from Ravenna escalating the border tension to -2 diplo.
With Willem in 1st place on the scoreboard, this 1 event caused Julius to become Cautious with Willem on Turn 78 since Julius is such a nutjob over border tension.
There was just no Warmonger respect between Julius and Willem, unlike with Saladin.
Spoiler :

Turn 83 Saladin border pressure captured a 4th tile from Julius increasing border tension to -2. This dropped Saladin to -1 visible diplomacy Cautious with Julius?
Ahahaha, Julius had a matching Peace Weight with Saladin!
On Turn 199 and Julius had +5 visible diplomacy Friendly with Saladin which means the hidden diplomacy had to be +1 Warmonger Respect, +1 from both being in the bottom half of the scoreboard, and +3 from peace weight difference of 0.
Spoiler :

On Turn 83, Julius was -1 visible diplo Pleased with Saladin! :D

Turn 86 Julius adopted Willem's religion.
Turn 86 Julius was +0 visible diplo Cautious with Willem (+1 peace, -2 border tension, +1 same religion) which ruled out +3 from peace weight difference.
This means Julius and Willem had +2 hidden diplomacy bonus from peace weight difference, so their Peace Weight Roll was 1 apart from each other. :)

Turn 86 Julius was -2 visible diplo Cautious with Saladin after the religion change (+1 peace, -2 border tension, -1 different religion) (The AI always starts out 1 away from their max different religion penalty and reaches the max after 5 turns)
Bad news for Saladin dropping from Pleased to Cautious with Julius Turn 86.
Turn 87 Julius was plotting war.

If Julius started plotting war between Turn 78 and Turn 85, it was 50% nowar with Dutch and 90% nowar with Saladin.
If they were both valid war targets that failed their nowar rolls, then the point total for being a juicy target got doubled for the Dutch for being Cautious instead of Pleased.
If Julius started plotting war on Turn 86 or Turn 87, it was a coin toss between Dutch and Arabs I'd say.

Result: War with Willem not Saladin. :crazyeye:
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Darius had great tiles after clearing all the jungle and getting a Golden Age from Taj Majal.
Turn 170:
Spoiler :
I guess the other thing I was curious about was Japan's epic stand vs. the Ottomans.

On T191 the Ottomans invaded northern Japan with a stack of 44 units that had only 1 Catapult.
They were targeting Nagoya which was a hilltop city lightly defended by a lone Samurai in a castle with 1 Sword, 1 Axe, and 4 Catapults. :crazyeye:
Spoiler :

Don't discount a Samurai with that many defense bonuses.
Against Knights outside the main stack of doom, it had 21.6:strength:
Against Jannisary, it had 14.8:strength: with 2-3 First Strikes.

The wandering Knights did try to attack while the stack of doom moved up, but failed to take the city.
The lone Catapult tried to do 8% off the 100% castle, but with -75% reduction it only chipped off 2% each time.
Since Sullla was in cheat mode, we saw only the :culture: defenses of the city which was 40%.
When the castle dropped to 98%, we saw the city drop to 39% on Turn 193.
The main stack of doom just sat there as 1 Catapult chipped away 2% off the Castle each turn.
Mehmed got Grenadiers teched complete Turn 193.

On Turn 208 after 16 turns of bombarding, Nagoya had 27% defenses.
On Turn 211 after 19 turns of bombarding, Nagoya had 37% defenses.
It popped borders from 40% to 60% :lol:
The Knights looking at the Castle would have seen 62% castle defenses.
62% of 60% culture defenses is 37% culture defenses.

On Turn 225 Saladin had 95 units at Nagoya.
Over the next 5 turns he added 4 Grenadiers, 2 Knights, 1 War Elephant, and 1 Trebuchet.
On Turn 230 after 38 turns of bombarding, Nagoya had 14% culture defenses. :lol: :lol:
Then Mehmed attacked!
Spoiler :

The results were horrifying.
6 highly promoted Longbow, 9 Crossbow, 27 Samurai, 18 Pike, ?? War Elephant, 1 Sword, 1 Catapult, and 21 Trebuchets shredded the Ottoman stack of 103!

The 1 Catapult and 1 Trebuchet likely did little collateral damage.
27 Knights, 7 War Elephants, and 2 Horse Archers likely got shredded by the 24% defenses from Castle, 25% fortifying bonus, 25% hill bonus stack of 18 Pikemen.
That is 17:strength: defenders moving down 10's and 8's.

Then the 35? grenadiers. 21 Mace, and 7 Jannisary, had to fight 27 Samurai with 2-3 First Strikes and around 75% bonuses. Call them 14:strength: Samurai. Plus 6 Longbow and 9 Crossbow with lots of promotions.

Here is the aftermath on Turn 131:
Spoiler :

I see at least 53 Japanese survivors.
The complete slaughter of 100 Ottoman units allowed Japan to push north to take a city and delay the Ottomans long enough to tech Rifling and stalemate them for the rest of the war.
Legendary :D
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