Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game 7 Thread

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven continues Friday, June 2nd on Twitch at noon EDT, 5pm BST. Kindly note the one-week break.

You can catch Game 6 on Twitch and YouTube.

We often talk about peace weight, but if you are familiar with Survivor then you will recognize Game 7 as a classic swap. With three high peace weight leaders and three low peace weight leaders, the line in the sand has never been clearer. A tribe swap tests players' prior loyalties, often exposing underlying tensions. While the default for Game 7 will be two tribes working to eliminate the other tribe's members one by one, each tribe also has the opportunity to work with the other side to eliminate a high threat player of their own. In my opinion, Pacal and Elizabeth are the threats, each capable of a fast victory. It will be up to Catherine and Montezuma on the one hand, and Frederick and Hatshepsut on the other, whether to stay strong or flip for a better shot at individual victory. Game 7 features a lot of numbers, but who will go after opportunity?

Watch the preview here, read up on the game here, and make your predictions here. And a hearty welcome to all to discuss the game in this thread and follow along for what will hopefully continue to be a dynamic and entertaining season!

And if one contest just isn't enough, check out CFC's own odds offered by @Fippy!

 

[Fippy]

No Monty game will be boring..cheers featherhead.

 

[AcaMetis]

I'm expecting Pacal to be the clear favorite and clear the field appropriately, but if a game with Monty and Catherine doesn't end up a chaotic mess in this season it can only be because the sheer amount of chaos those two brought to the board overflowed into complete tranquillity . Going to be an interesting game to watch, because with Monty on the board peace is not an option .

 

[lymond]

I did a quick check on the map and do not see anything outstanding at all. Freddie's position looks a bit odd down there on a peninsula. Could get boxed. Pacal can sometimes be a slow expander, so he might have some land trouble, and some Monty trouble . Regardless, Pacal is really strong, but he and Monty I see most definitely clashing early and often. I like Cathy's position a lot here...she should grab a lot of land fast - I don't see her as an underdog at all on this map. Lizzy and Hatty are who they are - great on paper - lame in competition.

 

[Slashninja1467]

Riding high on copium fuel now that 7/11 of my leaders have been erased from fantasy .

Freddy 1st
Elizabeth 2nd
Monty FTD
Spaaaaace!!!!

Forget the whole high pw, low pw dynamic: monty and pacal split religions, are 9 tiles away via capital distance (2 diagnols count as 3 in terms of counting this), and a bunch of food res and flood plains between them means they settle aggressively towards each other. Heck, they might even have holy city border tension with how resources are allocated. Monty does not like his religious foe that happens to have 8 tiles of border tension with him circa 1000BC, and the jaguar and eagle warriors with their obsidian clubs and axes set off to batter their heads on Mutai's walls.

So that means a cathy win right? Shes got a great capital and gold/ivory not too far from her that she likely claims. All shes gotta do is expand and build up an army to add the English commonwealth to her own. Well not so fast!! We just saw darius get into ultra early plot mode in g6. Second tech AH into UU immortals counting as two aggressive units meant WHEOOHRN was go for the persian leader as early as t20! Yes these ultra early wardecs that catch us by surprise sure are something, and it's not like we can count on them most game right?
Well hold on a sec there partner, take a looksee at cathy's there neighbor to her right, that egyptian princess is sure to like that clam spot to claim food, and it just happens to have horses. Who else has a chariot lookalike that just so happens to check the ultra early UU 2 aggressive unit quota to start plotting? Metals be damned, and those chariots are only swinging one way once the dice roll just right, because she's bound to like her fellow northern peacenik an awful lot this game.

That leaves two leaders unaccounted for. First we have Elizabeth, whose looking mighty strong here. Sure, Monty could swing his club her way, but chances are good with the distance and mountains between that Monty heads on a religious crusade west. Elizabeth sure has a lot of land and with cathy tied down in war with Hatty, that leaves our financial high pw to take the lion's share of the land around her and get her culture rocks off. Cathy probably overpowers hatty in an extended war so Liz is going to need to make a move west or south to help her fellow high pws out. The fact that she can get a jump on either of them is very good for her, and she'll get off to runaway status and why am i not picking her for first again?

Finally, we land at the man with the (farfetched) plan. Freddys start looking awfully awful, surrounded by low pws eager to rip his throat out. His northern territory is choked with jungle, he has no precalendar luxuries to work with, and he's limited on land compared to England here. There's no chance he can make anything of this game...except everything i've described above. We talk about the high vs low pw dichotomy but keep in mind that the two low pws are most likely to split religions, and chances are good pacal's religion enters german borders first via sail. Pacal just so happen to have HR as his favorite civic, and the combination of shared civics + religion is enough to overcome a staggering 6 pw differential. With his northern flank secured, that leaves freddy the time to develop his core and whack the jungle into fertile land, and eventually the opportunity to rally with his northern religious ally against the heathen Emperor himself. Freddy gains the lion's share of Aztec core land as his armies are fresh and once monty's knocked out, helps out his fellow high pws partiition wartorn Russia into even 1/3s. Freddy has the most land, techs the fastest, and wins space. Oh and Elizabeth gets her capital captured sometime here so that culture vic condition gets reset and she no longer pursues it.

Is this copium fueled mania in desperation to claw back into the good graces of the fantasy gods due to trainwreck after trainwreck of games leaving my fantasy draft in desperate need of a win? Perhaps, but if hammurabi can do it, then freddy has a shot too.

For my real thoughts, just switch liz and freddy and flip the win to culture and dial back the victory date 50 turns. That or cathy domination, still conflicted.

 

[Fippy]

Hmm dunno about Pacal clashing with Monty early and often..won't he attack Lizzy usually?
That being said - i think Lizzy has great (and much) land, somebody like HC would run away with this game from there.

 

[lymond]

Well ya figure those 3 will all have different religions, and Monty is so unpredictable. I think it could go either way. I can't rule out Pacal attacking Monty either...he is not necessarily passive.

I'd love to pick Monty for fun, but he is just so crazy and has never had any success. Seems I recall a game I watched one time where he did make quite a punch early on and gained quite a bit of land, but then still got knocked out.

 

[Fippy]

I'd love to pick Monty for fun, but he is just so crazy and has never had any success. Seems I recall a game I watched one time where he did make quite a punch earlier on and gain quite a bit of land, but then still got knocked out.

That was actually really unlucky, Troll King Wang did an across the map attack instead of declaring on Justi who he also was annoyed with.
I don't think Monty is actually worse than Alex or so In my games all those warmongers had success now and then, but in Survivor Rags i.e. always gets bad starts.
Monty's real problem here is middle map start..but he has nice land around so who knows.

 

[lymond]

hmmm...yep...Lizzy does have a lot of good land there...she could be an underdog. She is just such a milquetoast AI

 

[Fippy]

Hatty almost has Sitting Bull like land (really bad), but i don't think she will be FTD (unless her and Liz do something really stupid and fight).
Freddy looks like the frontrunner there.

 

[lymond]

Well Ms. Cathy is not too far away from Hatty and she might like a nice snack

 

[Fippy]

Yup but FTD is usually some kind of dogpile..Freddy will border Monty, Pacal and also Cathy prolly.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

@Slashninja1467 All is not lost with the fantasy picks, but I'm sure it stings to have three potential winners knocked out as well as Bismarck and Augustus, when surely Game 2 could reasonably have yielded FTD points or trips to Redemption Island. While I am happy with Hammurabi's performance thus far, the best I can say for the playoffs is he appears to have a somewhat protected corner. Higher hopes for Hannibal!

This is the first game of the season where I see peace weight potentially dictating terms to the AI. Just imagine the Villains, let's call them, pick off Frederick because he's already boxed in, and then Elizabeth because she's annoying, and why not Hatshepsut next? If that happens after T300, might as well hand the game to Pacal. But if the Heroes collapse by T200, I doubt the Villains will take everyone to the playoffs. Likewise, if the Heroes take out Montezuma first, and then Catherine as she's always starting wars, and Pacal because they plain don't like him, they likely won't turn on their own, but a T200 collapse of the Villains clearly favors Elizabeth if she holds her core cities.

I do think the links across peace weight are key on this map. Religious bonds can link Pacal and Frederick, as you point out, but also Catherine and Hatshepsut.

Hatty almost has Sitting Bull like land (really bad), but i don't think she will be FTD (unless her and Liz do something really stupid and fight).
Freddy looks like the frontrunner there.

I think of her position as more or less analogous to Darius' except she has one presumably cooperative neighbor. If she can get out of the land grab like he did, she could be in good shape.

 

[elitetroops]

I really want to see Monty join Shaka and Toku in the wildcard game, then hopefully Genghis from the next game as well.

Pacal definitely a favorite here. Freddy would be my pick for FTD. Hatty should be safe from early wars and has lots of land to expand, but her starting area is really bad. I'm afraid she'll probably end up without getting any points once again. Possibly make it to the wildcard game to get slaughtered by the warmongers.

 

[Fippy]

Maybe Cathy will be the contest favorite over Pacal..she has soft AIs around her and prolly more space.
Also not bad with gold & jumbos close for some very early happy.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

Did some testing on random maps. I don't think Hatty wants to get any AI Survivor points..

Hatty was so dominant culturally in this game and had built nearly every wonder. She had even repelled attacks by Cathy twice before rolling over Russian lands (Cathy messed up the worker tech research in this game + overexpanded and crashed her economy). The other leaders were friendly with Hatty so couldn't declare on her. The worst thing was that Hatty had literally only turned on the culture slider the turn before so she could have easily had a very early cultural victor if she had turned on the slider sooner (she had just researched radio so I guess she was not able to until reaching the modern era).

Other thoughts:

Catherine: Usually very dominant in this field once she starts to get her stacks of mounted units running around stomping weaker AIs (especially once she gets Cossacks as all the AIs love to build mounted units). Usually expands well (unless she messes up early research/crashes her economy like above). Picks her fights well and usually rolls over other AIs quickly and efficiently when she is at war. Lots of wins, never FTD but not many 2nd place finishes either. A bit win or bust.

Pacal: Does ok but not as strong as the pool 1 seeding would suggest. Wins occasionally, finishes 2nd reasonably often but also has a high chance of being FTD. Early wars often stalemate and he can end up on the wrong side of 2v1s.

Hatty: Not as terrible as her record would suggest. Actually can be quite aggressive in the early game thanks to her UU, will declare on other AIs quite often and is unlikely to be FTD. Keeps up in tech and builds decent stacks of units. Can be a contender for a cultural victory even with only 6 cities. The issue is that she does not quite have that killer instinct and often just ends up as the next target for whichever AI is snowballing. If she is ever going to get some points this is the field in which to get them.

Elizabeth: Highest likelihood of being FTD but can win quite often as well (probably more likely than Pacal). Very unlikely to come 2nd. Sometimes goes for culture with success but sometimes she runs out of time before Cathy targets her (or she does something silly like declaring on Cathy when only 20 turns from a cultural victory with one of her legendary cities on the border). Can become very dominant but needs a bit of luck in the early game and for some of the other AIs (particularly Cathy) to mess up a bit.

Frederick: Usually ends up fighting Monty at some point. Unlikely to win but also very unlikely to be FTD. A bit of a middling leader and quite often comes 2nd just by virtue of being alive at the end of the game.

Monty: Does Monty stuff. Does not expand well because he is busy building units but then declares wars without having built enough units to actually win, suicides units against cities with 50% defenses and then builds more units and repeats the cycle. Then when he does peace out from a losing war he declares on another AI the following turn and ends up way behind in tech and hated by the rest of the world. Very unlikely to make the wildcard round but also not that likely to be FTD as he does build enough units to put up a fight for a while. Can win in freak circumstances but his window of opportunity is very short to have some success with his early wars and relies on the other leaders getting distracted.

Game is most likely to go to domination (probably 60%+ chance). Then space -> Elizabeth/Hatty cultural -> Random diplomatic victory.

Not so many wars because it is a smaller field and Cathy wars tend to be decisive wants she gets the stacks rolling + the early wars often end up in eliminations once Monty is exhausted.

More chance of an earlier than average finish date.

I think the picking votes so far (45% Cathy 1st, 48% Pacal 2nd) are more reflective of the actual likelihoods than they were for game 6 with the exception of Monty being strong favourite (45%) for FTD. Monty will die at some point almost certainly, just not likely first imo.

Thinking I probably follow the herd for this one and go with Cathy/Pacal (or maybe Cathy/Frederick) with Elizabeth FTD. Cathy has room to expand (although some of it is desert) so unless she really messes up the opening she should be in a good position whereas the West/North of the map will probably be more contested and chaotic with Monty around. The dark horse is Hatty sitty there semi-isolated with marble in her capital BFC. It worked for Darius last game, could she surprise us all? Will sit on my thoughts for a bit though before locking in predictions.

 

[danjuno]

Cathy looks like a good pick, with Monty keeping the builders distracted, she can expand until she's ready to lay down some hurt.

Liz is one of said builders and starts next to Monty. Sid help her.

Second is up for grabs. Whoever gets the least mauled by the warmonger duo. Fred is off in his corner, so maybe him?

 

[Slashninja1467]

Hmm dunno about Pacal clashing with Monty early and often..won't he attack Lizzy usually?
That being said - i think Lizzy has great (and much) land, somebody like HC would run away with this game from there.

Kaitzilla will probably do a more indepth analysis but Pacal definitely has good odds of drawing Monty's aggression towards him first, the key being they are the only two mysticism starters so split religions is likely.

Just a quick calculation from Monty's perspective. Pacal has 0 warmonger respect so no brownie points there. Monty is -1 base relations modifier.

Best case scenario for Pacal (Monty rolls 2, Pacal rolls 0)

3 - (2-2) -1 = +2, so best case scenario for Pacal is that Monty is cautious at 0 and pleased +1 after 60 turns with no other factors.

Worst case

3 - (4-0) - 1 = -2, so cautious towards Pacal.

Since its likely they split religions, Monty almost assuredly will be annoyed with pacal by the time plotting happens, putting him at the same diplo factor as Elizabeth from Monty's perspective. Since Pacal and Monty are closer via capital distance and the food res/flood plains region is sure to be 2nd/3rd city spots for both, border tension is going to be a big factor and i'd actually say its more likely pacal/Monty come into conflict than Monty/Elizabeth first. Then when you factor that hatty is likely to go for AH because of the plains cow (big fan) in her capital and her 2nd or 3rd city likely to claim the clam/horses area, hatty could very well start early plotting vs cathy since War chariots fulfill the 2 attackers unit quota by themselves. Elizabeth has good chances of getting through the early game without aggression and her choice of dogpile, and the same goes for Freddy who seems even more insulated from aggression due to the way the diplo could work out. I'm not sure how often monty/pacal will split religions but I'm liking Elizabeth for first here if she gets the opportunity to dogpile as well as Freddy getting to be the Mehmed of this game.

 

[elitetroops]

I did a few tests with those AI in a similar layout and I think I must change my mind about Pacal. Every time he got into an early war over religion with Monty, a long drawn out conflict with no winners, only slowed down both of them. In one game Pacal even was FTD in the BCs when Freddy joined in on the fun (a crazy game that ended in a Monty culture victory).

I'd say Cathy is probably the strongest and if she is allowed to take out other AI one on one, she's got a good shot at domination. If she gets dogpiled by the high peaceweights, or backstabbed by Monty at some point, Lizzy winning space is possible.

Hatty did manage to score a point in one of my games when she dealt the final blow to Pacal in the opposite corner of the map.

 

[danjuno]

(a crazy game that ended in a Monty culture victory).