Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game 7 Thread

[Slashninja1467]

@Keler Interesting Monty is so terrible at founding a religion when starts are controlled for. Perhaps the Monty/Pacal religious split doesn't come to fruition?

 

[Kaitzilla]

Kaitzilla will probably do a more indepth analysis but Pacal definitely has good odds of drawing Monty's aggression towards him first, the key being they are the only two mysticism starters so split religions is likely.

Just a quick calculation from Monty's perspective. Pacal has 0 warmonger respect so no brownie points there. Monty is -1 base relations modifier.

Best case scenario for Pacal (Monty rolls 2, Pacal rolls 0)

3 - (2-2) -1 = +2, so best case scenario for Pacal is that Monty is cautious at 0 and pleased +1 after 60 turns with no other factors.

Worst case

3 - (4-0) - 1 = -2, so cautious towards Pacal.

Since its likely they split religions, Monty almost assuredly will be annoyed with pacal by the time plotting happens, putting him at the same diplo factor as Elizabeth from Monty's perspective. Since Pacal and Monty are closer via capital distance and the food res/flood plains region is sure to be 2nd/3rd city spots for both, border tension is going to be a big factor and i'd actually say its more likely pacal/Monty come into conflict than Monty/Elizabeth first. Then when you factor that hatty is likely to go for AH because of the plains cow (big fan) in her capital and her 2nd or 3rd city likely to claim the clam/horses area, hatty could very well start early plotting vs cathy since War chariots fulfill the 2 attackers unit quota by themselves. Elizabeth has good chances of getting through the early game without aggression and her choice of dogpile, and the same goes for Freddy who seems even more insulated from aggression due to the way the diplo could work out. I'm not sure how often monty/pacal will split religions but I'm liking Elizabeth for first here if she gets the opportunity to dogpile as well as Freddy getting to be the Mehmed of this game.

Sure, I'll give the relations a look.

With 6 AI, the 3 AI in the 4th, 5th, and 6th place on the scoreboard will secretly have +1 "Developing Nations Should Work Together to Catch Up"

Catherine will secretly feel -1 "We feel threatened by your large civilization" against anyone who is 4 or 5 places above her on the scoreboard.
Montezuma will secretly feel -1 "We feel threatened by your large civilization" against anyone who is 3 or 4 or 5 places above him on the scoreboard.

Hatshepsut will secretly feel +1 "Your small civilization is no threat to us" against anyone who is 4 or 5 places behind her on the scoreboard.

Montezuma and Catherine will secretly feel +2 Warmonger Respect! with each other. (part of "A First Impression is a lasting one")

Montezuma and Catherine max out on border tension just like Julius Caesar.
Anyone with a long border that steals 4 of their big fat cross tiles will get -2 border tension.


Catherine and Pacal have a pairing made in heaven!
Both have a peace weight of 2, so there is a 44% chance of starting with +2 hidden diplo with each other from peace weights.
Both have +1 base relations with everyone.
Most importantly, both have a Favorite Civic of Hereditary Rule!
Pacal can get up to +6 towards Catherine and Catherine can get up to +4 with Pacal if they both run hereditary rule. It takes a while to build up though, 10 turns for each +1.
More often then not I would expect them to be Pleased with each other all game unless they get different religions, and Pacal will not plot war at Pleased.

Elizabeth and Hatshepsut have a good pairing.
Both have a peace weight of 9, so there is a 44% chance of starting with +2 hidden diplo with each other from peace weights.
Both have +1 base relations with everyone.
Hatshepsut will not plot war at Pleased, so I expect Hatty will only attack Catherine unless Hatty feels like going on a distant adventure.


Montezuma is the devil in the middle of the map.
He has -1 base relations with everyone.
Monty's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at -7 Annoyed with Elizabeth
Monty's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at -7 Annoyed with Hatshepsut
Monty's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at -6 Annoyed with Frederick
Monty's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at +0 Cautious with Pacal
Monty's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at +2 Cautious with Catherine
Elizabeth, Hatshepsut, and Frederick should all start the game Annoyed with Monty as well.

Catherine's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at +4 Pleased with Montezuma
Catherine's highest odds is 44% chance to start the game at +3 Pleased with Pacal.
Catherine's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at -3 Annoyed with Elizabeth and Hatshepsut
Catherine's highest odds is 33% chance to start the game at -2 Cautious with Frederick.


It is strange to see a bad guy like Pacal have such a low aggression rating.
Elizabeth, Catherine, and Montezuma all like plotting dogpile wars a lot if their neighbor is already at war with someone else.


The religious nuts are Montezuma, Pacal, Catherine, and Hatshepsut who will have -3 vs. anyone with a different religion after 5 turns. -4 if they own the holy city.
Pacal, Catherine, and Hatshepsut can get up to +6 shared religion. +7 if they own the holy city.
Monty can get up to +3 shared religion. +4 if he owns the holy city.

Even Frederick likes religion to a degree. -2 vs. anyone with a differerent religion, and up to +5 shared religion.
Elizabeth does too? -1 for different religion.
But up to +5 Shared Religion.
She likes the Free Religion civic and won't stay religious all game.

Religion should matter a great deal in this game!

 

[Plains-Cow]

Sullla posted alternate histories for Game 4:

Sullla's CIV IV AI Survivor Season 7 -Game 4 - Alternate Histories Posted!

Sullla has posted alternate histories from Game 4 where my boy Plains-Joao won a diplo victory after beating back two AIs attacking him at once. There's a lot of interesting other outcomes that could have happened! Didn't see a thread about it, so figured I'd post it here:

forums.civfanatics.com

 

[Keler]

@Keler Interesting Monty is so terrible at founding a religion when starts are controlled for. Perhaps the Monty/Pacal religious split doesn't come to fruition?

if Monty and Pacal goes for same religion tech, and if Elizabeth or Hatshepsut decides to tech mysticism first, Montezuma can't have holy city at all. Pacal is pool leader and so player 1 here. Monty is what player 6? And that is a case here. If his first attemt to get religion fails I am not sure if he spends more turn on religion tech or just moves on to other infrastructre technologies such as animal husbandry,agrcicultre etc.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

So I remember what I put later:

1st - Cathy
2nd - Pacal
FTD - Elizabeth
Domination
10 Wars
Turn 290

My most following the herd prediction to date (even going with a round turn and war number) and feel a bit boring making it but it does seem plausible so just minimising points losses if the favourites do win (Cathy 53% to win at the moment). I am sure the game could unfold in many different ways and have a lot of shenanigans that will make Sulla mad (Hatty early wars on Cathy maybe or multiple leaders going for culture victories or a random diplo win).

Surprisingly not a single person has voted Frederick to win which I am not sure really reflects his true odds. In my tests he generally does about as well as Lizzy and Hatty and better than Monty.

 

[danjuno]

I picked Fred for second because he's off in a corner by himself so he shouldn't be bothered for the most part.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Time for picks again!

Spoiler Season 7 Game 7 Picks :

1st Place - Catherine
2nd Place - Pacal
1st to die - Hatshepsut
Domination
T305
10 Wars

I think Pacal will get the 1st religion 100% odds from turn order.
Monty should be 50% whether he picks the same religion to try for as Pacal and then loses it to Catherine or Hatshepsut.
Hatshepsut will go for Org. Religion and get the Judaism?
Religion should spice up this game big time!

I think Keler mentioned turn order earlier in the thread.
Sullla has the turn order with Civ 4 Survivor total points, so in this game Monty will be 2nd last with Hatshepsut last. top 2 seeds, then alphabetical order. *Thanks ManiaMuse89!*
At any time the turn order can be viewed from the Foreign Advisor screen or the diplomacy at a glance screen.

Spoiler :

Anyway, if Monty and Pacal have the same religion, Monty will be safe from Pacal and will likely try to gun down Elizabeth first.
If Monty and Pacal have different religions, Monty tries for Pacal or vice versa. Good for Liz.

Catherine like Domination wins.
Elizabeth likes Culture wins.
Pacal is split on Space/Domination wins with a sprinkling of Culture
Frederick likes Space wins.
Monty likes Domination wins.
Hatty likes Culture wins with a bit of Domination.

I feel like the 3 civs with a chance to win are Catherine, Elizabeth, and Pacal.
Monty would be a miracle, but he is surrounded by nerds who don't like building units.
So I'm thinking domination.

Spoiler :

Catherine is very prickly and surrounded by 3 high peaceweight leaders.
Her main threat is Liz or one of the others out-teching and then crushing her.
But she should start with 3 or 4 happy resources.

Hatshepsut has a good capital but terrible surrounding land.
Where is her 2nd, 3rd, and 4th city supposed to go?
Hatty is the weak link, and the game should be 3 bad peeps vs. 2 good people.
Monty should die 2nd, but I'm thinking Cathy solos Hatty 1st.

But then Hatty has that lucky plains cow.
The only one who will bother to kill her early is Cathy.
Hatty and Cathy could share a religion pretty easily too.
If Cathy attacks Liz and stalls out, hmm.
Hatshepsut winning or even scoring a single kill for 1 point would also be a miracle.

Monty should be a mad dog attacking every direction.

Fred has a lot of forest to clear to improve tiles, and he is surrounded by all the bad folks with Liz and Hatty far away.
Should have strong production.


Bah, I'll bet on the Tzarina.
Her domination would most likely leave Pacal unscathed, so him 2nd.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

Time for picks again!

Spoiler Season 7 Game 7 Picks :

1st Place - Catherine
2nd Place - Pacal
1st to die - Hatshepsut
Domination
T305
10 Wars

I think Pacal will get the 1st religion 100% odds from turn order.
Monty should be 50% whether he picks the same religion to try for as Pacal and then loses it to Catherine or Hatshepsut.
Hatshepsut will go for Org. Religion and get the Judaism?
Religion should spice up this game big time!

I think Keler mentioned turn order earlier in the thread.
Sullla has the turn order with Civ 4 Survivor total points, so in this game Monty will be 2nd last with Hatshepsut last.
At any time the turn order can be viewed from the Foreign Advisor screen or the diplomacy at a glance screen.

Spoiler :

Anyway, if Monty and Pacal have the same religion, Monty will be safe from Pacal and will likely try to gun down Elizabeth first.
If Monty and Pacal have different religions, Monty tries for Pacal or vice versa. Good for Liz.

Catherine like Domination wins.
Elizabeth likes Culture wins.
Pacal is split on Space/Domination wins with a sprinkling of Culture
Frederick likes Space wins.
Monty likes Domination wins.
Hatty likes Culture wins with a bit of Domination.

I feel like the 3 civs with a chance to win are Catherine, Elizabeth, and Pacal.
Monty would be a miracle, but he is surrounded by nerds who don't like building units.
So I'm thinking domination.

Spoiler :

Catherine is very prickly and surrounded by 3 high peaceweight leaders.
Her main threat is Liz or one of the others out-teching and then crushing her.
But she should start with 3 or 4 happy resources.

Hatshepsut has a good capital but terrible surrounded land.
Where is her 2nd, 3rd, and 4th city supposed to go?
Hatty is the weak link, and the game should be 3 bad peeps vs. 2 good people.
Monty should die 2nd, but I'm thinking Cathy solos Hatty 1st.

But then Hatty has that lucky plains cow.
The only one who will bother to kill her early is Cathy.
Hatty and Cathy could share a religion pretty easily too.
If Cathy attacks Liz and stalls out, hmm.
Hatshepsut winning or even scoring a single kill for 1 point would also be a miracle.

Monty should be a mad dog attacking every direction.

Fred has a lot of forest to clear to improve tiles, and he is surrounded by all the bad folks with Liz and Hatty far away.
Should have strong production.


Bah, I'll bet on the Tzarina.
Her domination would most likely leave Pacal unscathed, so him 2nd.

Turn order goes 1st seed - 2nd seed - then alphabetical order the unseeded leaders so for this one it goes Pascal - Catherine - Elizabeth - Frederick - Hatshepsut - Montezuma.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Turn order goes 1st seed - 2nd seed - then alphabetical order the unseeded leaders so for this one it goes Pascal - Catherine - Elizabeth - Frederick - Hatshepsut - Montezuma.

Thanks for correcting me.

Yes, seeds, not points.
Then alphabetical order.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

I am going with a variant of the dominant hedge:

Catherine 1st
Hatshepsut 2nd
Elizabeth FTD
Domination, T332, 11 Wars

While I like Catherine for first, she is far from dominant, and I would say Elizabeth and Hatshepsut are stronger than or on par with Pacal in that category, though Montezuma and Frederick also have a chance. Where Hatshepsut really shines, though, is sticking around as a beefy target to place second. This is possible because of the degree of conflict in the middle of the map and among the villains. While there is a chance the three will come after Hatshepsut following conquests of Germany and England, it is also quite likely that Catherine and Montezuma will turn on Pacal. The middle is dangerous, with Montezuma and Elizabeth particularly vulnerable to early elimination.

Pacal has low synergy with Montezuma, as that border conflict is likely to prove decisive, and not much better with Catherine, whereas Hatshepsut and the latter share decent synergy. While it is clearly possible, I find it unlikely Hatshepsut will be first-to-die, as frankly she is far away, and there is so much tension on Montezuma's borders. Victory is complicated because early Cultural is a real threat, and religious wars could lead to Diplomatic.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Pascal

I think he would probably take over Elizabeth or Pericles' traits

 

[Fippy]

Current contest picks inside

Spoiler :

Interesting stuff..only 14.5% on Freddy FTD (i did put him as slight favorite).
At 25% winner Pacal turned into a semi-underdog.

Monty has drawn a great start & field for this game..super-high capital, Jumbos and a very close goldmine.
Cathy has +2 warmonger respect and HR as favorite civic, Monty should almost never get attacked by her.
He has no early copper which is very important for warmongers (so they don't start plotting with 4 cities or so).

 

[lymond]

Monty or bust

 

[Fippy]

Monty or bust

That sounds so desperate

 

[Thrasybulos]

Current contest picks inside

Damn, for once I happen to agree with the Community picks.

Spoiler :

For the FTD category anyway.
I don't see a Cathy win here (I mean, it could happen, sure, but that would be an outlier IMO).

But for FTD, I do believe indeed that it is Elisabeth > Monty > Freddy.

I just don't buy into the Cathy quickly running over Hatty scenario. I believe, on the contrary, that Hatty will be stronger than Cathy most of the times. Simply because she'll be bigger.
I suppose there could be cases where Cathy settles all her first cities towards Egypt, where barb cities spawn very early in the Egyptian peninsula, where Elisabeth and Hatty have a different religion, where Pacal and Monty are busy carving up Freddy and Lizzy decides to side with Cathy against Hatty... in those cases, yeah, Egypt would crumble fast. But how likely is a game to check all those boxes?

And FTD should largely determine the outcome.
Freddy FTD means a Pacal >> Monty win.
Monty FTD means a Lizzy win.
Lizzy FTD... is more complicated. I'd say a Pacal / Hatty > Monty / Cathy win ?

Regarding Monty... I almost made him my favourite. Seriously. He's surrounded by neighbours who should be slow to pump out settlers because they'll be busy chasing after early wonders, and who build few units. An ideal setup for a warmonger snowball.
... except a running theme for this season is "No Copper for warmongers".
So no early attack, no snowball.

 

[Fippy]

Jaguars are a problem for Monty..he lacks some punch against defending axes (and archers i guess).
Also the missing deity techs hurt him more than many other AIs, no worker techs and often away in reli & archery lalaland.
Lucky for him he at least has Jumbos to improve this game.

Monty does better in my regular deity games, compared to Survivor..his early weaknesses matter much less there.

 

[lymond]

Oh..I think Cathy will win, but it does do much for me to pick her since most everybody else did. So I'll just make it interesting and pick Monty. (Cathy 2nd)

 

[ManiaMuse89]

Jaguars are a problem for Monty..he lacks some punch against defending axes (and archers i guess).
Also the missing deity techs hurt him more than many other AIs, no worker techs and often away in reli & archery lalaland.
Lucky for him he at least has Jumbos to improve this game.

Monty does better in my regular deity games, compared to Survivor..his early weaknesses matter much less there.

No tech trading certainly exposes the weaknesses of some AIs more than others. Could be interesting to rerun some of the alternate histories with tech trading turned on to see if the results are wildly different.

 

[Fippy]

Oh..I think Cathy will win, but it does do much for me to pick her since most everybody else did. So I'll just make it interesting and pick Monty. (Cathy 2nd)

Some good outsider picks available for sure
I haven't decided yet besides Freddy FTD, where i'm very surprised how few picked that. He will stick his nose out to Pacal, Monty and Cathy (where else can he go?) while Lizzy & Hatty are not that boxed in.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Should be starting soon.