Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game 8 Thread


Rise Up! (Phoenix Style!)
Hall of Fame Staff
Mar 11, 2008
Sullla's AI Survivor Season 7 continues Friday, June 9th on Twitch at noon, EST.


Watch the preview here, Read all about it, and Make your picks here. Please feel welcome to discuss the game in this thread.
this is copper in bfc the game unless you have a pw of 6 or higher or have red borders. Bound to see someone copperdec this game.

Napoleon not having copper may very well be a blessing this game, if he can capitalize on his bfc capital gold and get as close to construction as possible before wardeccing and dogpiling into another ai's copperdec :).
This is a tough one as I think there we gotta few strong starts and leaders here. My first inclination is to go for Chuck here. Nice start and prolly the most room to expand for a strong expander and "ai" leader. However, I really like Louie's position here as well. HC is HC so you can never rule him out..he'll likely be a strong favorite...but concerned about his dearth of food. I like Wash's start here too and he'd be my underdog choice. Nappy and GK positions seem week, and well GK is GK. I'd really like to pull for Nappy here though. Ramster just never seems all that effective of a leader.

Vicious map. I think we see a lot of wars here.

Edit: Ack...did not realize Wash had such a high peaceweight. He's gonna have a tough time sandwiched between Nappy and HC. He and Ram seem llikely FTD.
Huayna Capac is the obvious choice...

But so far every time I took the obvious choice, the game played out completely differently.

So, Louis, you've got this. Culture. By whatever random date. Napoleon will probably grow large (although both Washington, with perhaps a decent amount of units, and Rameses, with an early unique unit, can cause Napoleon trouble - but Napoleon is usually one of the more solid warmongerers). Temujin is lucky to be put in a corner with a decent amount of land, but as with Napoleon, both Rameses and Charlemagne (Protective, and if not a good AI, at least also not a bad AI) could be surprisingly tough or otherwise delay Temujin for more than he would like. Charlemagne has the potential to peacefully grow large, and I would assume Charlemagne grows faster/larger than Louis does... But Louis is more reliable in the 'I'll sit in my corner and spam wonders for culture' kind of way, while Charlemagne can go on side quests with religions and units and all kinds of things not necessary for someone laser-focused on achieving a victory (but maybe necessary for whitstanding the Mongolian hordes, which Louis doesn't need to fear). Could Huayna kill Louis? I suppose yes. But again, the obvious choices have failed so far, so Louis, you've got this.

I don't trust Napoleon to come in second... Charlemagne it is. Whatever will happen to Huayna Capac? I have no clue (probably he kills Louis and comes in first, but then still Charlemagne would be second)!

Rameses is surrounded, but Washington will be first to die. Although I think the exact date of the first to die will be quite far in the game - if someone dies at all... You know what, I'll put in 'None'. Huayna Capac and Napoleon could take down Washington, but Washington could survive if it's only of the two attacking him, and that also applies for Rameses (switch 'Huayna Capac' for 'Temujin'). Every AI could survive to the end... And that's a fun random choice when I'm off the obvious path anyway.

Wars... Eight or seven. Eight feels likelier, so seven it is. :p

As for the date of victory... If Louis is left alone to spam wonders it should happen relatively fast (oh, you mean, put massive culture pressure on Huayna Capac leading to war and subsequent death? Oops). Turn 300, nicely round number.
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My picking strategy so far has been to root for any neutral or high peace weight leader with odds. This worked well for Hammurabi, Joao, and Darius, but fell flat with Roosevelt and Hatshepsut. Unfortunately, the series favors warmongers, and in Game Eight the odds are overwhelmingly in their favor. In contrast to last game, which had balanced numbers, the Villains here have an even more brutal edge. Per my tests, the odds of Charlemagne, Ramesses or Washington placing first or second are 20-30% vs. 90% first-to-die.

Additionally, I found no case of coexistence between Charlemagne and Genghis Khan, likewise for Washington and each of Genghis Khan, Louis, and Napoleon(!) Of course, tests are limited by so many factors, but hopefully this gives an idea of what these guys have cut out for them.

Without looking at the map, I bet HC wins most of the alternate histories.
Remember Season 4 playoffs? He was FTD and Sullla had a comment along the lines of "Damn, I knew his starting position was very weak, but I wasn't brave enough to pick him for FTD."
Well, turns out my replays of that game show HC was ultra-dominant on this map, winning the majority of the games.
Never bet against HC.

...except this being Season 7, you can be sure he won't win the live game.
This has been an overall...suboptimal season for the seeded leaders so far, yes :crazyeye:.
So I remember what I picked later:

1st - Huayna Capac
2nd - Louis
FTD - Ramesses
Turn 321
13 Wars

I did a bit of testing again on random maps (regenerated maps for 'blobby' pangeas without big peninsulas like Sulla uses but otherwise not balanced starts so sometimes AIs would get screwed with bad/boxed in starts)

General thoughts:

- This set up is a bloodbath. There are no loyalties between the AIs. Once the wars start the AIs will be at it until the end of the game. Sometimes the wars are decisive, sometimes they stalemate and peace out only to restart a bit later in theh game. Dogpiles are common, 3v1s and even 4v1s occur quite frequently, backstabbing is the name of the game. Alliances are only temporary even between the warmongers and a 2v1 in one direction can easily become a 1v2 in the opposite direction 50 turns later. The game is unlikely to be decided early on and twists and turns will probably occur all the way until the lategame (likely to Sulla's frustration on the livestream).

- The most likely victims of the early dogpiles are Ramesses, Washington and Charlemagne. Having said that none of the AIs are pushovers and generally do a good job at defending themselves for a while.

- Huayna Capac is genuinely a dominant leader and deserves his favourite status. He is an absolute weasel and is often able to turn things around and even win when things are not looking good for him as a result of bad starts or diplomatic/war situations. He is able to go for culture, domination or space victories as he sees fit. That being said he is not infallible and is prone to certain 'errors' including:

1. Expanding poorly as he gets distracted building wonders instead of settlers.
2. Declaring wars when his power ratio is not high enough and then repeatedly losing his stack trying to take a city, sometimes even resulting in him going backwards and losing a city himself in the peace treaty.
3. Not defending cities that he has captured and then losing them 20 turns later while he is sieging another city
4. Taking his main stack on cross country adventures to declare on a dying civ leaving his core cities exposed to another AI declaring on him
5. Pulling the Willem strategy and refusing to tech rifling (seriously he threw away a few games from winning positions due to this)
6. Attracting religious hate if he picks up the Monotheism religion and it does not spread (especially with Charlemagne).

- Napoleon loves to declare war on AIs on the other side of the map. He is probably the biggest unit spammer and most Monty/Shaka-esque in his war declarations but can be a big player if things go right for him. Pretty much constantly fighting but usually against someone weaker than him which helps him pick up cities and grow. Generally keeps up in tech ok. Likely to be friends with Genghis Khan due to all the warring.

- Genghis Khan is similar to Napoleon but maybe not quite as effective at warring. If things go right he can be a big player at the end though.

- Louis is a very strong 2nd place candidate and pairs often with Huayna Capac. He usually (although not always) manages to avoid being the victim of the dogpiles and is quite good at picking his battles well to his own personal advantage. Techs well and is often still in the mix in the lategame. Can go for a few victory conditions as well and will be one of the favourites if Huayna Capac messes up.

- Ramesses is not a bad leader and often grows to quite a large size or has some success in wars against other AIs. The problem is that everyone else always absolutely hates him (like really, really hates him) and he inevitably ends up on the wrong end of a major dogpile at some point which leads to his downfall (even sometimes from winning positions in the lategame).

- Washington is pretty much the same story as Ramesses. Basically a coin flip as to which of them gets dogpiled first.

- Charlemagne is a bit of a fraud. Whilst he does not attract quite as much hatred for his peaceweight the religious aspect often leads to him declaring religious wars which end up backfiring and him ending up being the one getting dogpiled later. Imperialistic and protective helps a bit early on and he can become big if he picks the winning team but for some reason seems to tech badly compared to the other leaders in the midgame (maybe tile improvement preferences or something?). Also often ends up with weird borders due to distant wars (which is weird because unlike Napoleon he has a low distantwar probability). Definitely better pool 2 leader candidates out there imo.

- The minimap often ends up a bit of a mess. How the borders align can be quite important as to how the AIs are able to defends themselves during the initial war declaration phase.

- Barbarian cities often get left alone due to the constant warring and there is a genuine chance of their being a barbarian civilization left at the end of the game

- Basically the game comes down to the interactions between the two pure warmongers (Genghis Khan and Napoleon), the three victims (Ramesses, Washington and Charlemagne) and the two mercenaries (Huayna Capac and Louis).

Number of wars = think double digits as a minimum. No chance of it being a peaceful game.
Victory date = later than average (before turn 300 very unlikely) but unlikely to be insanely late either
Victory condition = almost exactly even chance domination/space/cultural so basically pot luck
I autoplayed my map 10 times to see hat happens.
Date ADWinnerRunner upFirst to dieVictory Type

1850Huayna CapacGenghis KhanRamessesCulture
1856Louis XIVGenghis KhanRamessesDomination
1874Genghis KhanNapoleonRamessesDomination
1901Huayna CapacLouis XIVRamessesCulture
1912Louis XIVNapoleonRamessesDomination
1929Louis XIVGenghis KhanRamessesCulture
1939NapoleonHuayna CapacRamessesDomination
1943NapoleonGenghis KhanWashingtonDomination
1945Louis XIVNapoleonRamessesCulture
1963Genghis KhanNapoleonCharlemagneSpace

Ok I admit this is a very border tension creating map shape. So here are the results based on that.
1)Louis 22
2)Napoleon 18
2)Genghis 18
4)Huayna 12
7)Charlemagne 0
7)Washington 0
7)Ramesses 0

Huayna Capac always goes for culture victory condition, but he techs rifling for sure. He is less likely to benefit from spoils of high peaceweight trio that will die no matter what,leaving him with smaler land than frances+mongolia. Thus he ends up with less points here.
As far as teching speed goes, Louis>Napoleon>Genghis.
Louis goes for culture often but by time rest of them catches him in tech wise he wins the game. Perhaps Culture is more likely then Space as it seems this game. And domination is there.


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And religions of course. Maybe they don't matter as much as it did in other games. From game 1(1850) to game 10(1963) (earliest end date to latest end date)


CharlemagneHuayna CapacRamesses
CharlemagneHuayna CapacLouis XIV
Huayna CapacRamessesRamesses
CharlemagneLouis XIVLouis XIV
Huayna CapacRamessesRamesses
Huayna CapacCharlemagneLouis XIV
Huayna CapacRamessesRamesses
Huayna CapacRamessesRamesses

Charlemagne gets 5 times
Huayna Capac gets 5 times.

Ramesses gets 6 times.
Huayna Capac gets 2 times
Louis XIV gets 1 time
Charlemagne gets 1 time.


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Ok, time to pick now.
Even though HC is the best AI of the game, I am going to board him in upset train, right behind Gilgamesh. You know, I took a city or two from Washington and had no where to go poisiton.
I picked
Louis XIV to win by domination
Genghis Khan as runner up
Ramesses as first to die
Turn 322 with 12 wars.
Lets see what shocking surprises happens.
Wow! Chuck did nothing!
1st: Nappy!
2nd: Genghis Khan't
FTD: Ramses
Victory: Domination
Wars: 13

Napster has some relatively weak neighbors to munch on the early game giving him enough juice here to take over the map. I really like Louie's position here, but I think he will be one of the favorites next to HC, so I'll go with the other Frenchie. Nappy is generally more competent than Monty, but like last game I think he will delay wars enough early on to establish himself for more effective wars later with Elieputs. My one worry is his inclination for distant wars.
A very hard to read game. The only threat is pretty boxed in, so it's anybody's game..... except Ram-Ram. He's a pretty solid lock for FTD. Washington isn't out of the question, but Huyana is less likely to join a dogpile than Genghis, so I say Rammy is first out.

In the end I stacked the French leaders for the podium: I agonized between Louis and Burger King, but Louis has a better peaceweight and a better start. Napoleon is probably the most likely winner in the south, but doesn't have the economy to go the distance.
There are so few picks locked in before the preview... Very eerie, makes me tempted to delay and obfuscate :mischief:

Les Mousquetaires and les Grognards shall fight alongside one another, l'Oriflamme and le Tricolore, fly together! Yes, that means there are odds for all French leaders to advance. As for an all-French Playoff Game Two or Championship, I will kindly refer you to @Fippy.

Louis 1st
Napoléon 2nd
Ramesses FTD
Cultural, T274, 13 Wars

Ramesses and Washington almost equally likely to be first-to-die, so I hope picks even out between the two over the next couple days. Louis has nearly unprecedented access to religions and wonders, while retaining the royal dogpile prerogative. He is vulnerable to Incan treachery, a late-game backstab from Napoléon, and a strong Egypt/Holy Rome. Napoléon is in a great position to gain from early wars against Ramesses and Washington, but for whatever reason he seems unable to consistently duel either. If he pulls off early conquest, who cares about distant wars? As noted by others above, Napoléon seems likely to be a score leader when Louis goes Cultural.

Charlemagne and Washington are dangerous when they survive, whereas Ramesses continues in the great tradition of mid-game score leaders who struggle to convert their cultural/economic base into victory.
Time for Game 8 picks!

Spoiler Season 7 Game 8 Picks :

Small map with a lot of ice tiles that contribute nothing except barbs.
Ramesses and America are dead for sure, but I'm leaning towards Egypt first with that lack of nearby metal.

I like the endless production of HC's capital and think he will settle his holy city to the east where the food is and get a bunch of land.
He is also relatively sheltered with lots of river to cottage and can dogpile to his east or south as necessary.

Wars should rage all game since everyone plots at Pleased.

I feel like Louis will tech far ahead with his gorgeous start, spam wonders, and then be attacked from all sides.
HC and Charlie get an early religion, followed by Egypt with Judaism and Louis with Confu and Taoism?

1st Hyuana Capac
2nd Genghis Khan with that sacred cow. Hopefully RamRam will build a shrine for him to capture.
1st to die Ramesses
Culture (late with all the wars and spread out wonders)
12 wars
Turn 320
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