Sury and Early Great Merchants

[johnny_rico]

I'm looking for some input on what people do with early great merchants. In my current game, I'm playing as Sury for the first time. His traits are pretty good and I really like all the early cheap buildings he gets.

My start opened with a nice coastal capital (2 fish, 1 clam, 1 cow) and lots of forest. Early scouting revealed a thin continent with lots of seafood, lots of jungle, Charlemagne, and 2 happiness resources (gems and ivory) not in the capital but three of each. Given all the forest in the capital and only one neighbor, I looked to build the Great Lighthouse and use trade routes and specialists for early research and wiping out the King with my UU (using Sury's creative trait as an advantage, I blocked the king from accessing any military resources). In addition to the GLH, I was also able to crank out the pyramids by chopping remaining available forest + whipping. Perhaps I should have gone after the ToA instead but at this point, given Sury is creative, I still haven't researched any religious techs (don't need monuments, no polytheism yet) and I'm pushing for optics asap as I'll have no neighbors very soon.

Switch to representation and started cranking out libraries, the King was the first to code of laws so I've got a holy city coming (and he built the Kong Miao). Research rate is good and the three gem tiles provide some nice cash. Building up cats and ballistas to take him out.

Anyway, enough background. My first two great people were merchants which is a rarity for me and I wasn't sure what to do with them. Given the SE + trade routes I'm running, it made sense to settle them because his +1 food couples nice with the +1 food from the baray for a specialist.

I could've used them to pop techs like metal casting, currency, or compass but with a total of 10 representation scientists in the empire, it made more sense to settle them as each of these techs were less than 10 turns to research from scratch.

As always, things in civ are circumstancial. It just seems that settling early GM makes more sense than bulbing techs that cost <600 beakers (I suppose metal casting is a little over 600).

 

[VirusMonster]

On an intercontinental map, missions are probably the best way to go

Remember that the base mission gold income is multiplied by that city's trade multiplier. If the target city has harbor and customs house, 150% more gold right there. If you have been in peace with that empire for a long period, add another +150%. I don't remember all trade modifiers, but I am sure the mission allows you to run your reserach at 100% for quite some time.

 

[johnny_rico]

VM.

So if you got an early GM, you'd hold on to him for a long time instead of using him?

 

[Roxlimn]

I would settle him myself. Settled Great Merchants can allow you to run your slider at 100% early on while keeping it in the black, or run a lot of Specialists without tanking your unit and city support.

Under Representation, an early Settled GMerchant nets you +6 Gold, +3 beakers, and +1 food! That's absolutely stupendous.

 

[johnny_rico]

Yes, they are. I was curious for other opinions. At this point, despite my attempts to get a scientist, I've wound up with three merchants. Settled in one in a different city and built a baray. The 'free' early specialist in each city has allowed me to work an additional hill in city for production. Post war, switch to caste system and focus heavy on food tiles and run a minimum four scientists in four different cities. On this path, I'm hoping to have good tech parity once I start to meet other AIs.

 

[VirusMonster]

johnny rico, my answer depends on how early you got the first Merchant. Even lightbulbing might be a good option if done early. For example, early Currency should allow you to run at 100% science for a long time.

A settled GreatMerchant gives 6 and 1 Let's assume this 1 for simplicity corresponds to a half merchant specialist with 1.5 So a total of 7.5 Also, let's assume you have a market in place. 7.5*1.25=9.375 per turn

Then, you need to estimate how many turns will pass until one of the AIs has the ideally maximum possible trade modifiers.

In BTS, the following trade modifiers apply:
+5% for population of the Receiving city over 10
+25% if the receiving city has a connection to the Capital
+3% per turn since your last war with the civ (if it is another civ) [max 150%]
+50% if you have a Harbor
+100% for the ToArtemis
+100% if the other city is on another continent
+100% if it is another civ on another continent AND you have a Customs House

A city size 25 could have 600% trade modifier. Now, I don't exactly remember the mission profit formula. It is something like 500 + 2000 * game speed modifier * trade modifier. On marathon speed, theoretically, you should be able to get 2000 * 3 * 600% = 36K gold I might be making this 2000 number up, but I am sure it is in the range of 1000-2000, so final mission profit, including my bad memory, should range between 18k-36k.

Now compare theoretically maximum possible number to 9.375 * how many turns will pass until end of game. If you are aiming for an early victory, then game should end roughly between 400-800 turns on Marathon speed. 9.375 * 600 = 5625

Well, it can't be really compared to what a trade mission would bring I hope you agree.

 

[johnny_rico]

virusmonster,

Yes, I agree. Over the long haul, a trade mission should bring in more gold.

But trade missions I've done in the past have brought anywhere from 1400 to 2800. I don't know if I've ever had one go over 3000. A settled merchant for 300 turns on a normal speed game will bring in 1800 gold plus eventual modifiers from buildings.

 

[VirusMonster]

You must be playing on normal speed. It is quite normal to get around 6k-9k from a trade mission on Marathon. Still, the turns are adjusted between game speeds. Then, your settled GreatMerhant should produce roughly 1/3 total gold. 5625/3 = 1875 on normal speed. With higher modifier buildings, you could be getting much more, so you have to do the math for yourself and decide whether settling or mission is best. I would avoid building the Temple of Artemis and go for the mission at all costs.

Can you post one of your saves just as when you are about to conduct a mission? I want to experiment with the trade mission formula. My bet is you are not doing the mission from the most profitable city.

 

[johnny_rico]

When I do a trade mission, I usually shop around and will take a merchant from city to city looking for the highest rate of return.

I am playing on normal but can one still expect 2000 gold in return for a trade mission in 400 AD? I'm not sure what determines cash value but I figured population would have something to do with it.

The ToA and the trade mission aren't really related to one another. I had built TGL in this game and then went for the pyramids in lieu of the ToA although I considered trying for the TGL, ToA, and colossus wonder trio but opted for specialists instead due to the abundance of food on my continent.

I could post a save, I've already settled my great merchants but there isn't anything to stop me from editing in another merchant and posting that save if you really want to play with the formulas based on this particular save.

 

[VirusMonster]

that would be nice of you... I could not locate the formula article despite searching 20 minutes or so, might as well do the experiment myself

Are you stealing from cities on a different continent? Are you stealing from cities that already have harbors? Are you stealing from cities that already have customs house? Are you stealing from the mostly populated city? I doubt you are doing these or you would get a higher profit than 2000.

 

[johnny_rico]

Well, a city isn't going to have a customs house at 400 AD and most populations are ~10 around that time. Harbors are possible but compass isn't one of those must have techs early. Given these circumstances, I can't see a trade mission returning much of anything at this stage of the game.

Most of my experience with trade missions is after 1500 AD. I will search for the largest coastal city with a harbor. I don't know how to find a customs house on the main game screen when zooming in on a city.

But for the most part, when doing a trade mission, I'll just go from city to city looking for the highest gold value. I wouldn't just pick any city at random or a newly founded city. Again, I've had hauls from 1800 to 3000.

It would make for a separate thread but I'm curious now as to what the highest value someone has recorded for a trade mission on normal game speed.

I'm not at home but will try to post a save game later.

 

[VirusMonster]

You must be playing a lower difficulty level than Immortal. I usually play Immortal, and the score leading AI has a decent chance to be somewhere near Economics by that time.

Well, you know the tools to make up your mind. Use espionage to locate the Custom House city. Make sure to steal from the other continent. I am sure you'll make a good decision. In your Wallstreet city, you would get 300% for your settled GreatMerchant. 7.5*3=22.5 per turn

If you run 100 turns your GreatMerchant on your Wallstreet city, it should compensate your normal game average trade mission profit of around 2000. Then, settling would make much more sense.

 

[zenspiderz]

Virus monster you have asumed the settled merchant will only be multiplied by a market. But in a wealth city (shrines,merchants etc.) you would eventually also build grocers, banks and in your best wealth city wall street... Once wall street is built that is a multiplier of +200%. Or 9.37 * 3 = 28.11 gold per turn. + that extra half a merchant you can run because of the food also generates GPP and with rep +3 unmodified beakers and with sistine chapel +2 culture.

It seems you have conservative assumptions for settling but ideal asumptions for GM mission.

As a rough rule of thumb I suggest early game settle, middle game mission, late game mission, bulb or golden age depending on requirements.

 

[VirusMonster]

zenspider, you are right I should be more fair with both settling and the mission. Temple of Artemis is usually built early on and if it is on a different continent, you might as well take the risk and save the early GreatMerchant for a mission.

If you expect a long game, then settling definitely makes more sense. If, however, you are trying for the earliest possible finish date, then the mission might be better.

 

[r_rolo1]

Virus, the formula for the cash that a trade route brings in Normal/standart is here..... I suppose that usual multipliers apply.

 

[SergeiKirov]

I've been wondering about these multipliers for quite a long time, thanks for all the useful comments.

I usually settle the GM/GP to be able to support a couple of extra early cities, to help the initial push, I may need to rethink this...

 

[VirusMonster]

there was some other thread I spotted long time ago that explained the formula in more detail, but can't find it now.

 

[futurehermit]

settle them without hesitation. 1F, 6C, 3B?!?! Yes, please!

 

[r_rolo1]

there was some other thread I spotted long time ago that explained the formula in more detail, but can't find it now.

Me neither... Probably is under a strange name.....

 

[VirusMonster]

Me neither... Probably is under a strange name.....

I found something, but must test this formula to figure out whether it is correct:

"""BTW, the reason I was looking into this code is because it appears that Great Merchant trade route values are completely dependent upon the value of a regular trade route from the target city to your capital. Gold = S * (500 + (200 * T)), where S is the game speed modifier (150% on Epic) and T is the value of a regular trade route that would appear on the target city's screen were it trading with your capital."""

Could it be correct? If yes, the missions are probably not worth it even under best odds where T=7.

So yea settle early merchants, late ones save for Sushi or Golden Ages.