Taiwan/Formosa, 2019

RedRalph

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Jun 12, 2007
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What's its status going to be in 10 years?
Whats going to happen?
Will they ever declare independence?
How would China react?
How would the US react?
How would everyone else react?
 
What is Formosa?
 
I thought Taiwan was already independent as the Republic of China...

The "People's" Republic of China can go get itself a depression.

And so can the US.

And so can everyone else.
 
There are 3 options, it might become part of China, It might continue on as it is (which I consider the best) and lastly, it might become independent when China doesn't care about it anymore.
 
What's its status going to be in 10 years?

Pretty much the same as it is now.

Whats going to happen?

Nothing serious.

Will they ever declare independence?

Unlikely.

How would China react?

Depends on the US commitment to defend Taiwan and the Chinese nationalist fervour.

How would the US react?

Depends on the Chinese moves and the will to go to war over a far-away country that most Americans never heard about.

How would everyone else react?

They'd watch the show and say nothing.
 
Actually, Taiwan is not really recognised by many countries as a country. Here, it is simply referred to as a "territory".

The problem is, both the Taiwanese and the Chinese sees themselves as the rightful ruler of China. So declaring independence would require the Taiwan people to give up their sovereignty.

That is of course the overview. There are lots of practical reasons not to declare independence too.
 
Most Americans have heard of Taiwan if for no other reason than the stuff they have that was made there :D
 
Actually, Taiwan is not really recognised by many countries as a country. Here, it is simply referred to as a "territory".

Ah, the nuances of diplomacy ;) For all intents and purposes, Taiwan is a country. In fact it is more a country than the officially recognized Kosovo.

The problem is, both the Taiwanese and the Chinese sees themselves as the rightful ruler of China. So declaring independence would require the Taiwan people to give up their sovereignty.

That's a good point, I was missing this part of the Taiwanese perspective.

That is of course the overview. There are lots of practical reasons not to declare independence too.

Is that an euphemism for hundreds of missiles targeted at the island by the mainland Chinese? :D
 
Maybe not in ten years, but I think that the 1 country, 2 systems idea could work. As the mainland China's economy continues to grow, Formosa will have less and less reasons to go for the independence and a deal can appear.
 
Especially as Taiwans economy becomes more intertwined with China, it gives the possibility that China and Taiwan becomes one. That will be some time in the future I think.
 
I thought Taiwan was already independent as the Republic of China...

Not really, Taiwan is de facto an independant state but claims to be The Republic of China, ruling all of China since 1912. Declaring independance would mean they admit they are just Taiwan and not China.
 
Not really, Taiwan is de facto an independant state but claims to be The Republic of China, ruling all of China since 1912. Declaring independance would mean they admit they are just Taiwan and not China.

well they might as well i mean have you seen the territory they claim, theres bits of at least 4 countries they'll never get any of it back might as well renounce their claims think the prc will have much less of a problem with them if they do.

if china liberalises then i think theres a chance the two chinas could be reunified
 
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090205/wl_asia_afp/taiwanchinapoliticsbridgekinmen_20090205090002

has asked Taiwan's top economic planners to conduct a feasibility …

TAIPEI (AFP) – Taiwan is considering building a bridge to mainland China in the latest sign of warming ties between the cross-Strait rivals, an official said Thursday.

President Ma Ying-jeou asked Taiwan's top economic planners to conduct a feasibility study when he visited Kinmen, a Taiwan-controlled fortified island group off the Chinese mainland, in August.
 
Given the current political climate, I'm not entirely sure Taiwan will declare independence. The party in charge now is sympathetic toward the PRoC and will likely mend relations with mainland.
 
The only reason Taiwan isn't widely recognized as an independent country is that the PRC is much more economically important to foreign countries.

In the next 10 years, the situation will effectively be the same. The only difference that may appear is that Taiwan may renounce claims to the rest of China. They may improve relations, but the PRC will still claim Taiwan and threaten anyone who recognizes it. The US will continue to support Taiwan.
 
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