Trends
- Rising food and energy prices translate to economic stagnation for many nations.
- Droughts strike Mexico.
- Droughts in Spain and Italy lead to refugee crisis in EU and Poland.
- Open warfare between Ecuador-Colombia and FARP intensifies.
- Middle eastern oil production contraction continues. Unemployment is soaring in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
- Anti-Islamic laws are enacted in Nigeria.
Ummah Al’Salaam Movement Arises Within Daesh 2031-2033
The skies are filled with drones. The streets are filled with Daesh and western informants and spies. Bombs and missiles strike anywhere at anytime. Unemployment is cripplingly high. Some areas lack clean water or proper sewage control and education is fragmentary and inconsistent. The people of the Middle East have had enough.
And so as the US, EU, and the EAU continue to hope for a regional ally such as Jordon or Saudi Arabia to shoulder the responsibility of policing Daesh and preventing terrorism, a potential ally arrives from an unexpected corner. Within Daesh and the population itself a new movement arises, the Ummah Al’ Salaam. Transnational and dedicated to a united Sunni Muslim Arab identity, they also advocate for an end of the violence and war with the western powers should they leave the region.
The coalition is not sure how to respond, while the Ummah Al’Salaam are obviously a very powerful political force in the region with widespread grassroots support, they are not a nation state and to support them would be to upset the entire balance of the Middle East since WW1. Additionally, the Ummah Al’Saalam have promised to operate their state much like Daesh did in the 20-teens, including the use of Sharia law, something the EU especially is not keen to accept.
And yet the opportunity for peace and an end to the expensive occupation is too great not to consider. Diplomats meet and have some limited early successes but these are limited and evaporate quickly. The Ummah Al’Saalam movement faces strong opposition from traditionalists within Daesh and political jockeying continues for some time.
Several middle-eastern countries, especially where the Islamic brotherhood is well entrenched, including Egypt and Palestine, and, unexpectedly, the Jordonian crown, throw their full weight behind the Ummah Al’Salaam movement and by 2028, it seems that the Ummah Al’Salaam has arrived as the dominant political voice.
Central American Socialist States Annexes Guatemala 2031-33
While Guatemala initially makes significant headway against the Central American Socialist State, the US-China trade crisis soon inverts the power relationship. With continued support from leftist governments in Nicaragua and Venezuela and weapons and organization from the FARP in Ecuador and Colombia, 2032 to 2033 see rapid gains by the CASS. Without Chinese or American support, the Guatemalan government surrenders in 2033.
CASS forces are greeted in the capital by cheering crowds.
US-China Trade War Upends Global Power Structure and Ushers in Worldwide Recession 2032-2035
In response to a legal dispute over newly-discovered offshore oil near the Philippine Palawan Island, the US and China enter into a long-anticipated showdown over the South Pacific.
China pushes back against American economic and diplomatic pressure by selling off nearly 5% of its publicly held US currency reserves. This, in documents later declassified after the trade war, was meant to serve as a warning, of the capacity the Chinese government had in disrupting the US economy and a means of displaying its strategic commitment to its ‘near abroad’. Unfortunately for the US and the world, the sell-off sparks panic in global markets where it has long been recognized that the US dollar, long overvalued due to its appeal as the ‘world reserve currency’, may not be worth nearly as much as it has been. Soon private lenders are selling US debt and foreign governments and banks with US currency are selling their reserves. Panic ensues; major investors in the US dollar like Chinese and Indian banks must decide if they will sell now further devaluing what they cannot rid themselves of or hold their dollars knowing they may be losing value dramatically in the near future. Ultimately the banks act conservatively, choosing to rid themselves of an investment suddenly very risky to hold and governments are forced to follow. In five weeks the US dollar loses almost 55% of its value. For many analysts the loss reflects a long-overdue response to US overspending and loss of confidence in the dollar as
the reserve currency.
The US government views the sell-off initiated by the Chinese government as economic warfare and freezes Chinese banking assets, and working with its allies internationally, manages to construct a framework of import sanctions and punitive tariffs against Chinese goods. China, which just saw much of its reserve currencies devalue drastically, is now faced with the sudden loss of much of the international market for its goods.
With the economic battering of the globe’s two largest markets, the world economy slips into recession (or further into recession for the governments of much of Europe and Japan). With the Chinese and the US public (and politicians) both blaming the other nation, public demand for a ‘strong response’ builds. Neither party seems willing to initiate actual military conflict but carrier groups of both nations are deployed to the south Pacific. Responding to the military posturing, fear of nuclear war between the nations has the public stockpiling canned goods and in some cases fleeing the cities. Rhetoric builds when the Eastern African Federation, working in conjunction with the US navy seizes a Chinese supertanker off its shores in response to ‘unlawful dumping’.
Cyberattacks by
’independent third parties’ with no official ties to either government are launched against the communications infrastructure of both nations. These activities culminate in 2034 with attacks by ‘independent third parties’ using experimental Chinese military computing hardware based on direct neural interface. These hackers, experiencing the Internet purely in virtual reality, soon render almost all existing Internet security obsolete and swing the communications battle solidly in favor of China. Damage to the US business, and especially financial sectors is extensive.
At the same time, private security consultants with deniable links to both the US and Chinese governments are striking at economic and soft-target investments throughout the globe, focusing on those areas with more unstable governments or reduced central authority. Much of Africa, and indeed the world, becomes a sort of shadow battlefield for the Chinese-US trade wars with private commandoes making attacks on mining, agricultural, and energy investments in over 30 different nations.
Ultimately the trade and shadow war proves so decisively destructive for both parties as well as for the world that when ASEAN offers to mediate a compromise settlement both parties are eager to accept the proposal. The Palawan oilfields are ultimately decided as an ASEAN asset with financial remuneration paid to both China and the US from proceeds of oil sales.
Ultimately while no real outright battles are fought between US and China the Palawan crisis proves disastrously destructive for both nations, so much so that neither can be considered the dominant superpowers they had been just three years ago.
Middle-East Redrawn to Accommodate Ummah Al’Salaam 2033-2034
The US-China trade crisis and resulting global recession have left western powers with no option but to withdraw forces from the Middle East and focus their wealth and influence elsewhere. In the vacuum that results, the heads of many Sunni Muslim nations including Syria, Lebanon, Jordon, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Oman meet in Cairo to draft a new agreement. Also present are representatives of the Shiite communities in these nations, Iran, and of course, the EU, EAU, and US.
The issue is the formation of a new, united, Arab state that would stretch from Africa to Iran, from Turkey to Yemen. Many governments, especially Egypt which had been spared much of the Daesh fighting and western occupation, are eager to form the new super-state, seeing in it a chance to rise as a power similar to the EU, EAU, or ASEAN. Other governments, such as the semi-autonomous Kurdish state or parts of Lebanon with majority Shiite populations are less enthusiastic.
Ultimately the agreement passes and there can be no denial that the worsening economic and global anxiety due to the US-China showdown has a major role to place in the consensus.
While most Middle Eastern nations agree to form the union Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen are too divided and for now remain independent.
For Palestine it is the chance they have long sought and with the US and it allies too fatigued, and pre-occupied with China, Israel is forced to allow its Palestinian territories to join with the Ummah Al’Salaam.
Nicaragua Ascends to the Central American Socialist States 2034
After years of sponsoring the CASS financially, militarily, and organizationally, Nicaragua completes it commitment to the risen CASS by ascending to its union.
Perhaps in recognition of Nicaragua’s long-term support, CASS recognizes its capital as Managua and adopts many elements of the Nicaraguan government for its own.
Caribbean Community Forms Federal Union 2034
In response to the growing instability in North and Central America and an increased need for cooperation in the face of more and more frequent extreme storms, CARICOM members agree to a federal union, abandoning their individual sovereignty to form a single united nation.
Its capital is Georgetown and its four official languages are English, Spanish, Dutch, and French.
Iranian and Ummah Al’Salaam Backed Plebiscites in Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen Divide the Middle-East into Two 2034-2035
With the world increasingly destabilizing and the influence of both the Iran and especially the Ummah Al’Salaam rising dramatically, a number of foreign-funded popular plebiscites are held across the Middle East and the remainder of the region is divided, often with military involvement, into two camps, denunciation by local governments be damned.
While several nations including the US are quick to condemn what is effectively forcible, though generally non-violent annexation by the two Middle Eastern powers, others such as the EAU, the UK and the EU can clearly see how the wind is blowing and offer only token resistance to the union.
ASEAN Forms Federal Union 2035
The last two decades has seen ASEAN increasingly united both economically and diplomatically, forming common cause on the world stage more often than not. With the rise of India and China and the increasing tension of US interests in the Pacific, this has only accelerated.
The trade crisis between the US and China that sees the South Pacific turn into a potential battlefield for the superpowers carrier groups and nuclear submarines and overflown by tens of thousands of drones accelerates that union and in 2035 ASEAN announces the formation of a common, united, federation. The new state has a single military structure and a single currency and operates under direction from its capital in New Bangkok but is otherwise highly decentralized with multiple official languages, ‘state’ operated education and health systems and highly deregulated religious laws.
Mexico Declares Victory Against Drug Cartels 2035
The Mexican government’s war on the drug cartels has taken on an increasingly desperate form in the last two decades as the various drug cartels struggle to prove which is most brutal while at the same time building public support with civil services in territories they control.
With the CASS gaining influence in Central America, Mexico’s central government has remained solidly right of center and associations between the drug cartels and socialist movements in Mexico have ensures that the government has been able to paint the left and the drug cartels with the same bloody brush.
As the war continued and the US grew increasingly concerned by rising leftist institutions in South and Central America, Mexico was able to access increasingly impressive military hardware from the US and its allies and develop significantly more sophisticated policies for countering the cartels.
But ultimately as long as there was a thirst for Mexico’s drugs north of the border, no amount of military hardware or government rhetoric would completely defeat the cartels. So when the US economy plunged in the mid-2030s, an opportunity appeared. The cartels, without a major source of their income suddenly lost their capacity to provide public services or to hire soldiers or corrupt officials, at least not on the scale they previously had.
Within three years, Mexico’s government and army were once again active in regions that had not been for years, re-establishing themselves in regions that had been ‘no go’ for decades or more. Many of the cartel bosses were killed or arrested and their soldiers were seeking employment in the Mexican military.
In 2035, though it was obviously an optimistic statement, Mexico was declaring it had ‘won the war against the cartels’. There was increasing evidence that they were right and as the second half of the decade arrived, issues like the economy, trade, periodic drought, and border security became much more important than the cartels.
Peru Invades Ecuador 2035
The Peruvian government invades Ecuador, citing ‘increasing regional instability due to leftist uprising north of the border’ and a need to ‘bring stability to the region’.
