The 2010s

[Synobun]

Elaborate please.

At the end of 2009, I had gotten sick but it wasn't too bad yet. I was at the height of my appeal to others but this was careened to a halt since I couldn't really perform to expectations anymore. Home life was predictably terrible, but not in any sort of crisis. I mostly expected the 2010s to be mediocre if I didn't end it, even if I got better physically (which at the time, I expected to happen).

2010 saw me collapse and spend days in the hospital, lose my job, my niece born, my dad promise to kick me out the day I turn 16, my dad die a week before I turn 16, my mother blame me for my dad dying, me dropping out of high school, me losing my hair in clumps and needing to go full bald for almost an entire year, me losing all of my friends, me getting and losing another job, my health getting significantly worse, me dropping out of online schooling... so on and so forth.

A pretty drastic and hilarious shift between decades. Life saw my expectations and oh, honeyed me.

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

my dad promise to kick me out the day I turn 16, my dad die a week before I turn 16, my mother blame me for my dad dying,

Your parents kind of stink.

 

[caketastydelish]

I’m so sorry this happened to you.

edit: @Synsensa

 

[Kyriakos]

1919 was in the interwar period, after the break up of Austria-Hungary, in the start of the Greek-Turkish war. Germany was in the great depression and for the time being France was posing (ridiculously) as the hegemonic power in Europe. Soviet dark age was starting, while other eastern states dreamed of expansion by interregnum or force-annexation.
By contrast, 2019 seems pretty docile, although it seems that at some point another massive world war will happen. Probably in the middle east ( @r16 red apple ).

I am somewhat surprised that no breakthrough in an SDI-type defense has materialized; wasn't that the US aspiration? At any rate, if effective anti-nuclear weapon defense becomes a reality, world war will soon follow.

 

[caketastydelish]

If a world war is to follow who will it be between? Ex-axis powers would all be on the allies side now. Perhaps Russia, China, Iran a small handful of other countries would be on the side but they’d be easily overwhelmed against USA & friends.

 

[Kyriakos]

If a world war is to follow who will it be between? Ex-axis powers would all be on the allies side now. Perhaps Russia, China, Iran a small handful of other countries would be on the side but they’d be easily overwhelmed against USA & friends.

The obvious area is the middle east, somewhere in the Israel-Turkey-Saudi-Iran rectangle. It is already very unstable. All the major powers are invested there as well (China not directly).
I don't think it will be a Nato vs Russia/China/allies war. Nato itself may not have all current members for that long.

Of course there is a special issue in Nato, in the case the war is between Russia and Nato: many nato countries just won't bother to take part in that war, depending on who is under attack. Particularly after the hideous Eu treatment of austerity, it is impossible for (eg) Greece to be part in any war against Russia, due to nothing to be gained there & historic ties. Let alone if the cause of war is some Russian attack on Finland or smaller baltic states - they are sufficiently hated here after the Euro charade and no one would risk their life for them. Furthermore, China has been investing considerably in Greece, and again historically there is zero animosity against China here. Got to keep in mind that the army is conscript (almost entirely). In countries with non-conscript, effectively mercenary force, politicians can decide to go to war regardless of public sentiment, but not so in conscript ones.
Also, although in the longer run Germany could again produce a massive army, currently it has little trained forces (afaik) so who knows what they would do. Maybe we can sell them back the thousands of Leopard II tanks, which combined are worth far more than the greek debt

Realistically, though, as long as there is no defense against nukes, there isn't going to be any war in the greater part of Europe (too high a risk of being turned into glass).

 

[Patine]

If a world war is to follow who will it be between? Ex-axis powers would all be on the allies side now. Perhaps Russia, China, Iran a small handful of other countries would be on the side but they’d be easily overwhelmed against USA & friends.

If Russia and the U.S. are on opposite sides, I don't see it being so simple. They each have a nuclear arsenal capable of wiping out all life on earth above the cockroach, water bear, hardy microbe, resilient lichen, etc. level, with intercontinental range. I'm not certain what sort of "victory" you honestly foresee.

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

If Russia and the U.S. are on opposite sides, I don't see it being so simple. They each have a nuclear arsenal capable of wiping out all life on earth above the cockroach, water bear, hardy microbe, resilient lichen, etc. level, with intercontinental range. I'm not certain what sort of "victory" you honestly foresee.

The only winning move is not to play.

 

[caketastydelish]

If Russia and the U.S. are on opposite sides, I don't see it being so simple. They each have a nuclear arsenal capable of wiping out all life on earth above the cockroach, water bear, hardy microbe, resilient lichen, etc. level, with intercontinental range. I'm not certain what sort of "victory" you honestly foresee.

He specifically mentioned nukes being rendered ineffective in this scenario.

 

[Patine]

He specifically mentioned nukes being rendered ineffective in this scenario.

In that case, we have too take into account highly flawed military doctrine still held by the American and many other NATO militaries, the fact in the U.S. military, technology reliance over troop training, discipline, readiness, and fitness, compared to most other militaries, has been a proven and observed liability on the battlefield for a few decades now, corporatization of American logistics is a potential Achilles' heel, and, the glaring fact we can't ignore, that, since the end of WW2, the American military has only won two unqualified and obvious victories as wars go - Grenada and Desert Storm - which, like the Six-Day War, the Falkland War, and Russo-Georgian War of 2008, had the qualities of very sharply delineated and defined objectives, massive and overwhelming military force over a very short period, and then pretty much stopping. Again, your analysis of an assumed one-sided conflict would not be so simple to prognosticate.

 

[caketastydelish]

WW2 was the only war we fight like it ever since. Wars of containment are very different than WW2 when we were fighting actual nation states over territory. WW2 is the type of war America is specifically good at.

It’s also worth mentioning that America is easily capable of returning to the draft and making their military training/doctrine much more strict if they deem it necessary.

 

[Patine]

WW2 was the only war we fight like it ever since. Wars of containment are very different than WW2 when we were fighting actual nation states over territory. WW2 is the type of war America is specifically good at.

It’s also worth mentioning that America is easily capable of returning to the draft and making their military training/doctrine much more strict if they deem it necessary.

If the United States returned to the draft, the military would be bigger in numbers, but less fit and disciplined as a rule given the average state of health, activity, behaviour, lifestyle, and obesity of Americans today compared to the Vietnam War and earlier.

 

[Kyriakos]

To clarify, I only stated that lack of anti-nuke defense will prevent war in parts of Europe (and the general west). Not that it will prevent some massive scramble elsewhere (eg the middle east; where major powers can openly clash with little care and possibly even not using nukes).

 

[caketastydelish]

If the United States returned to the draft, the military would be bigger in numbers, but less fit and disciplined as a rule given the average state of health, activity, behaviour, lifestyle, and obesity of Americans today compared to the Vietnam War and earlier.

How true is this really? Fitness programs are considerably better and hardly anyone smokes any more.

The average American drafted might not be in that good shape AT FIRST but their potential ceiling would be much higher than in previous major wars.

 

[Narz]

At the end of 2009, I had gotten sick but it wasn't too bad yet. I was at the height of my appeal to others but this was careened to a halt since I couldn't really perform to expectations anymore. Home life was predictably terrible, but not in any sort of crisis. I mostly expected the 2010s to be mediocre if I didn't end it, even if I got better physically (which at the time, I expected to happen).

2010 saw me collapse and spend days in the hospital, lose my job, my niece born, my dad promise to kick me out the day I turn 16, my dad die a week before I turn 16, my mother blame me for my dad dying, me dropping out of high school, me losing my hair in clumps and needing to go full bald for almost an entire year, me losing all of my friends, me getting and losing another job, my health getting significantly worse, me dropping out of online schooling... so on and so forth.

A pretty drastic and hilarious shift between decades. Life saw my expectations and oh, honeyed me.

Damn bro. That's rough. Any light at the end of the tunnel regarding your medical condition?

Being betrayed by people you thought you could trust is pretty rough, one of the roughest things. :/ That on top of a really **** illness, I can't imagine.

 

[Narz]

I like how Aimee gives empathy after everyone's posts.

 

[Patine]

How true is this really? Fitness programs are considerably better and hardly anyone smokes any more.

The average American drafted might not be in that good shape AT FIRST but their potential ceiling would be much higher than in previous major wars.

Also, the concept of a draft is, according to recent polling, incredibly unpopular. An American Administration who instituted one today would be asking to lose badly next election. Even George W. Bush didn't PUBLICLY muse over the idea...

 

[caketastydelish]

A war against Russia, China, Iran etc would require far more troops than Iraq to the point of no comparison.

Hell, even Iran all by itself is 3 times larger than Iraq and has the type of terrain much better suited for guerrilla warfare. There was absolutely no need for a draft in Iraq because the amount of troops necessary was smaller to the point of no comparison.

 

[Patine]

A war against Russia, China, Iran etc would require far more troops than Iraq to the point of no comparison.

Hell, even Iran all by itself is 3 times larger than Iraq and has the type of terrain much better suited for guerrilla warfare. There was absolutely no need for a draft in Iraq because the amount of troops necessary was smaller to the point of no comparison.

I think it would come down to whether or not the American people were convinced it was a reaction to a real threat, or an unnecessary and contrived war of aggression. So, contextual in terms of popular support, I'd say.

 

[caketastydelish]

If we are war with all the powers I mentioned a draft will absolutely necessary for us to win. Note that there was a need for a draft even in Vietnam and this type of war would require far more troops than that. We would have to be fully mobilized as we were in WW2.