The 2016 US Presidential Primaries Begin!

[Bootstoots]

Moderator Action: This thread is about 2016 presidential candidates, not about US political parties or ideologies in general. Please refrain from ordinary partisan bickering - there are plenty of other threads for that.

 

[JohnRM]

Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and lose by a landslide.

 

[Cutlass]

Trail Blazers Blog
Report: GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson deems Ted Cruz “too right wing”
Todd J. Gillman Follow @toddgillman Email tgillman@dallasnews.com
Published: November 25, 2014 1:25 pm

update 5:30pm

The New York Observer now reports that Adelson called to dispute the way it characterized his take on Cruz: “Mr. Adelson made clear to the Observer that he was the only person in the room with Mr. Cruz and thus the only one in a position to know how he felt about the Senator.”

Also they met at the St. Regis, not the Palace.

Whatever Adelson does think of Cruz — other than that it’s something other than previously described — the Observer wasn’t saying.

We sought input hours ago from Adelson’s top political adviser but he hasn’t responded to a call and email.

original post

WASHINGTON – There are donors, and then there are megadonors. On Monday, Sen. Ted Cruz got some quality time with a GOP financier in a league of his own: casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.

Cruz sat next to the Las Vegas billionaire Sunday night at the Zionist Organization of America dinner in New York. The next morning, according to the New York Observer, they met privately for two hours at the Palace Hotel.

“According to one source close to Mr. Adelson, the casino owner liked Mr. Cruz but found the senator `too right wing’ and concluded he is a longshot to win the nomination,” the Observer reported.

With a net worth of $32.4 billion, Adelson is the 12th wealthiest American on Forbes’ list. He would be a great friend for any presidential aspirant to have. In 2012, he and his wife Miriam Adelson gave $92.8 million to GOP causes and candidates. Almost single handedly, he bankrolled former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s effort. Any number of 2016 hopefuls have been courting him in what has been dubbed the “Sheldon primary.”

Over a kosher lunch on Monday with a small group of Jewish leaders, according to the Observer, Cruz predicted that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. And he reiterated an argument he’s made countless times, that Republicans should pick a rock solid conservative — such as himself– out of the dozen or more potential candidates.

“There’s one bucket that, for lack of a better word, I’ll call the ‘moderate establishment’ bucket. It’ll be some combination of Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney,” Cruz said over lunch, according to the Observer. “Whoever’s in that bucket will raise tons of money. A lot of donors will rush to write them checks. And yet if the nominee comes from that bucket, the same voters who stayed home in 2008 and 2012 will stay home again and Hillary’s the winner.”

At Sunday’s dinner, Adelson joined the audience in giving Cruz a standing ovation.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews....n-adelson-deems-ted-cruz-too-right-wing.html/

 

[JollyRoger]

Given the number of days that he has officially dominated the race, I am resigning myself to a Webb presidency.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Does it bother anyone else to see the words "financier in a league of his own" and "casino magnate" applied to the same guy in reference to a major political party?

 

[Cutlass]

Does it bother anyone else to see the words "financier in a league of his own" and "casino magnate" applied to the same guy in reference to a major political party?

It's not out of the ordinary these days.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton and lose by a landslide.

And deservedly so. Friends don't let friends nominate Hillary Clinton.

 

[JohnRM]

And deservedly so. Friends don't let friends nominate Hillary Clinton.

Can I be the designated voter, please?

 

[Antilogic]

Why can't we just abolish the states and do whatever Denmark is doing?

(In regards to the OP, I'm 95% sure Rand Paul is an ancap. So having him actually run would be disturbing to say the least.)

So, there is not an announcement on the exploratory committee front, but that turns out to be major news for this thread:

Rand Paul announces he is running for Senate in 2016

Rand Paul announced Tuesday he’s running for office in 2016, but it’s not the one presidential watchers were expecting.

The Republican said in a news release that he’s seeking re-election to the Senate from Kentucky. Paul will decide sometime this spring whether he’ll also run for the White House, according to Doug Stafford, a senior adviser to the senator.

Paul, who is at the top of some early polls for the GOP presidential nomination, has said previously he will not be deterred by a Kentucky law that prohibits candidates from appearing more than once on the ballot.

Republicans in Kentucky’s Legislature tried unsuccessfully in the past session to change the law so candidates can run simultaneously for two federal offices — as states such as Texas already do. The measure passed the GOP-controlled state Senate but did not go anywhere in the Democratic-controlled state House.

Stafford told reporters during a conference call there are “many options” available to Paul if he decides to run for president, including a court challenge. In an interview with Salon in November, Paul suggested a state nominating convention would mean he would not be on the ballot twice.

Sounds like he is betting on getting an LBJ law or changing the Kentucky primary to a caucus, but the Senate announcement means he's playing safely. Or might put off the presidential run until 2020 or later.

A lesser known GOP candidate who could have been a "moderate" champion in the primaries has ruled out a run as well. Rob Portman Rules Out Presidential Run:

Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman announced Tuesday morning that he has decided against a 2016 White House run and will instead seek a second term in the Senate.

...

Portman had been mulling a presidential campaign in recent months, in which he likely would have presented himself as a middle-of-the-road Republican with broad appeal within the party and outside of it.

...

If he had run, Portman would have been the first major Republican presidential candidate who supports gay marriage, but he also would have had an uphill battle trying to win the GOP nomination.

During the 2012 presidential race, Portman made the short list of potential running mates for Mitt Romney, who ultimately selected Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan instead.

Trail Blazers Blog
Report: GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson deems Ted Cruz “too right wing”
Todd J. Gillman Follow @toddgillman Email tgillman@dallasnews.com
Published: November 25, 2014 1:25 pm

This is really consequential due to the role he played in the 2012 primaries with Gingrich. If Cruz (or another right-wing gadfly) can't get a sugar daddy, it's much less likely the GOP primaries will progress past Super Tuesday.

 

[onejayhawk]

Portman was considered a darkhorse by some. Being from Ohio, he had the shadow of Kasich to deal with. Given Kasich's 2-1 win last month, Portman might have thought that too tall a mountain.

J

 

[Cutlass]

This is really consequential due to the role he played in the 2012 primaries with Gingrich. If Cruz (or another right-wing gadfly) can't get a sugar daddy, it's much less likely the GOP primaries will progress past Super Tuesday.

Cruz has been pushing the boundaries of wingnuttery recently. He's well into the 'either you're with me, or you're a communist' territory.

Having money early is critical to the primaries. Many of those that drop out early do so because they lack the funding to take the time to become better known. But there's also a real problem guys like this have. They believe they need a 'true conservative', but at the same time the definition of what they consider a 'true conservative' has changed so much that they don't have anything other than the wingnuts to look at. And the wingnuts are moving ever further from the mainstream voters.

 

[cybrxkhan]

I'm not surprised that Rand Paul has decided to play it safe (then again, I wouldn't have been surprised if he went for the Presidency either), but no matter.

 

[Cutlass]

One doesn't really preclude the other. Many people have run for more than one office at a time.

 

[bhsup]

So, not "official" official, but semi-official I suppose...

Jeb Bush to explore White House bid

Jeb Bush, brother to former US President George W Bush, has announced he himself is looking into running for president in 2016.

The former Florida governor will "actively explore the possibility of running for President", he wrote on Facebook on Tuesday.

He will also create a political action committee to "facilitate conversations with citizens across America".

I realize a lot of people are of a "no more Bushes" mindset, just as many are of "no more Clinton" mindset, but let's try to bear in mind that both Jeb and Hillary are not George (HW or W) or Bill, respectively. They are their own people and should not be judged by the actions of their family.

 

[Goodfella]

"financier in a league of his own" and "casino magnate"

I read this before Cutlass's article and immediately though "Adelson." I anticipate that his luck in avoiding major publicity will run out soon and he may have to scale back his funding operations.

 

[Agent327]

I realize a lot of people are of a "no more Bushes" mindset, just as many are of "no more Clinton" mindset, but let's try to bear in mind that both Jeb and Hillary are not George (HW or W) or Bill, respectively. They are their own people and should not be judged by the actions of their family.

Of course, Bill and Hillary aren't actually related.

 

[Antilogic]

Cruz has been pushing the boundaries of wingnuttery recently. He's well into the 'either you're with me, or you're a communist' territory.

Having money early is critical to the primaries. Many of those that drop out early do so because they lack the funding to take the time to become better known. But there's also a real problem guys like this have. They believe they need a 'true conservative', but at the same time the definition of what they consider a 'true conservative' has changed so much that they don't have anything other than the wingnuts to look at. And the wingnuts are moving ever further from the mainstream voters.

Speaking of Cruz, he's recently pulled a move that might be appropriate for another thread. But he's also been pulling together a campaign staff for months that is starting to look like a presidential campaign.

So, not "official" official, but semi-official I suppose...

Jeb Bush to explore White House bid

Beat me to it because of meetings. But yeah, I'm counting exploratory committees as the first-logged move for the purposes of this thread, and Jedediah Kerman von Bushkrieg is the first candidate to move on the GOP side. I'll mark exploratory committees in italics and official candidates in the regular font. (Drop-outs will be struck through when appropriate.)

Democratic Party
Jim Webb (former VA-Sen)

Republican Party
Jeb Bush (former FL-Gov)

I haven't had the time to do a dig on sites like OnTheIssues to try and figure out where J. Bush is, where he has "evolved" and so on. However, I saw this on Vox that starts that work for us:

1) Jeb supports immigration reform, but has wavered on a path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants

2) Jeb's an economic conservative, but might be willing to compromise

3) Jeb's an education reformer

4) He's a social conservative

5) He's a foreign policy interventionist

I copied the headers, there are more details under each, including the immigration book tour where he appeared to walk back his earlier positions before he was for them again and the Common Core stuff that might not play well with the GOP primary voters. Also an overview on his foreign policy platform where he seems to be most similar to the GOP establishment and his brother.

I realize a lot of people are of a "no more Bushes" mindset, just as many are of "no more Clinton" mindset, but let's try to bear in mind that both Jeb and Hillary are not George (HW or W) or Bill, respectively. They are their own people and should not be judged by the actions of their family.

Of course, Bill and Hillary aren't actually related.

It will matter so long as it reminds voters of a policy they liked or didn't like from the prior administrations. In particular, if Jeb Bush were to strike out on a non-intervention platform, I think he would be treated as very distinct from his brother. But if he sticks close to his brother's old advisers and espouses a similar world view, then the comparisons will be inescapable.

 

[JollyRoger]

Rick Santorum has kind of announced:

Rick Santorum is making a return to the presidential campaign trail, spelling out part of his 2016 strategy in an interview with the Washington Post.

And yes, the sweater vests will be back.

The former senator from Pennsylvania isn't getting as much attention as other potential 2016 Republicans, but Santorum is already talking as if he's a candidate.

"America loves an underdog. We're definitely the underdog in this race," he told Karen Tumulty on Tuesday.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/10/politics/rick-santorum-2016/index.html

 

[KMRblue1027]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-president-republican-primary-2016/

538 just ran this about Jeb. He scores ideologically near Papa Bush, and McCain before the '08 primaries. With the party continuously running right it may not be possible for him to win.

 

[bhsup]

Of course, Bill and Hillary aren't actually related.

Of course, married people are usually considered family, which is the word I used, not related. Though marriage does create a relation as well.