The complaints of inflation are insane.

Kaitzilla

Lord Croissant
Supporter
Joined
Jun 21, 2008
Messages
11,804
Location
America!
Lower than expected! Please for the love of god pump the brakes fed.

All kinds of things are falling out as interest rates keep going up.

Used car interest rates are above 10% now for people with middling credit ratings.
Goodbye Carvana!

I recall selling them a used car for big money in the summer of 2021 and they barely even looked at it before handing over the check which cleared in less than 24 hours. :crazyeye:




FTX crypto is going to be a goner soon.


Facebook/Meta which is spending $10 billion a year for a crappier version of 2nd Life is firing 11,000 humans from their jobs!
:eek:

 
Last edited:

Hygro

soundcloud.com/hygro/
Joined
Dec 1, 2002
Messages
25,250
Location
California
Turned out they fired their way down to early 2021 employment levels, they simply reversed their recent bump.
 

DaggerDigwillow

Reading: The Authority Gap by Mary Sieghart
Joined
Dec 8, 2013
Messages
200
You are putting too much credit on technology. How much energy did that army unit spent in 1919, and how much energy does it spend in 2022?
Energy is the key limit, new technology just allowed us to capture and use more of it. There are other resources too which are not infinite. But make a graph of economic growth versus energy use per capita and be scared.

And energy is a hard limit because at some point, even if we were to discover magic unicorn energy, we would boil out the oceans using it. There is a limit to how much the planet can radiate without raising surface temperature significantly. We won't be able to go on as we did in the 20th century. The trend won't hold.

As a race, humanity must really sort out what to do in the future with this planet we depend on. It has a carrying capacity, Malthus will be wrong only for so long. Spending energy trading pictures of smiling apes and calling it economic growth won't do. Not everything new is fine and dandy.
The story of humanity is the consumption of energy trading off low-density energy consumption for high-energy-density products. Those burning cow paddies should be encouraged to go to coal fuel consumption. Coal fuel consumption to oil and oil to hopefully nuclear. Nuclear to hopefully one-day soon fusion. Human beings have an insatiable desire for energy use. That isn't going to change. Energy use is highly correlated with quality of life. Look at celebrities, world leaders, and the elite's use of energy even when advocating against it such as jetting around to climate summits or paying for an entire yacht team to fly back to Switzerland after attending a climate conference.

Perhaps Hans Rosling put it best in the everyday terms of the washing machine. You will never find an environmentalist no matter how die-hard who would not prefer to use a washing machine over a scrub board. The biggest gains in the reduction of carbon emissions are the advancement as quickly as possible to higher forms of energy-dense products in both developing and modernized nations. As nations modernize their concern for environmental conservation and social freedoms begins to emerge just as it has in the west and we are starting to see this in China, India, and the Middle East exactly as predicted 40 years ago.

While the US and other countries continue to drop their CO2 emissions despite population and production increases as move away from coal while countries still attempting to stabilize their modernization climb dramatically as they increase their usage of freed-up coal resources before leveling off or declining when they switch to higher density fuels and hopefully nuclear. The biggest problem in this entire process is an interruption from corruption or war. It was very hard for the US to switch from Coal to Oil because Coal companies lobbied and heavily regulated oil companies. It literally required someone as powerful as Rockefeller to change things. Likewise just as Nuclear was kicking off oil industries have heavily lobbied and regulated nuclear development often using environmentalist programs to achieve their ends socially what could not be accomplished in the short term politically.
 

El_Machinae

Colour vision since 2018
Retired Moderator
Joined
Nov 24, 2005
Messages
48,108
Location
Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
The United States is still within the coal usage caused by the ramp-up necessary during the 70s Oil Shock. So, despite all the prosperity that has been generated and apportioned, it's still within the range where the problem hasn't gotten better (in absolute terms) from when we were kids. Luckily (lol) as the Boomers pass on, more people will be within the range of 'at least it's better than when I was a kid'! Granted, the air is a lot clean for the locals and the Globe didn't agree about CO2 being a problem until 1992. It's a nice trendline, but trendlines can only be celebrated after they cross a threshold otherwise you're counting eggs as if they were chickens.

There's further complication that natural gas has been the bridge technology. But, if it's going to be a 'bridge' technology, the pivot needs to happen while the times are good, which means sufficient investment in time, the more total capital that gets caught up in delaying this pivot or spending the natural gas in alternative ways (especially in ways that create dependence on spending more), we're still back in trendlines. If the globe doesn't pivot through the process vastly more quickly than the United States has, there's real trouble. Of course, if you have actual capital and shrug at this paragraph, then people poorer than you have fewer choices on how to change the future.

1668182606958.png
1668182329077.png
 

Joij21

Deity
Joined
Jul 21, 2016
Messages
2,416
This means that even the techno-bros escape plans of settling other planecs cannot work to sustain the trend. It0's literaly physically impossible to continue "growing" at the rate we're user to.

Yeah except your being a little unreasonable. It would take millions of years, perhaps billions for any future human society (and this assumes something even vaguely human exists that far ahead) to hit that wall.

Does this mean growth can go on forever? Well probably not (unless FTL is achieved), but then from a less than 2 million year bracket (time it would take to colonize the milky way without FTL), it basically is infinite growth.

So while your technically not wrong, it's just I think your maybe predicting too big and too far into the future for it to be headed with any seriousness and urgency for our much more immediate lifetimes.

Remember the Universe giveth just as easily as she can taketh. Expect nothing from her, neither validation nor entitlement. Be open minded and perhaps she may giveth. However that which is earned is never to be expected. Stop struggling, don't resist, just go with the program. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust, as it was in the beginning so it shall be in the end.
 

Cutlass

The Man Who Wasn't There.
Joined
Jan 13, 2008
Messages
47,457
Location
US of A
You really think that a typical US army unit uses less fuel now than an equivalent one would have in 1919? The units have many more vehicles and the vehicles require more fuel. There was also a massive amount of energy used to create the infrastructure that makes the trip easier today than it was then.

I agree with your definition of economic growth, but it's absolutely true that in energy terms we've gained in efficiency and all the efficiency gains have gone to doing more stuff, rather than doing the same stuff with fewer inputs.


This isn't an apples to apples. We aren't talking about a unit of that size, and much larger unit now. A unit of the same size would use a fraction of the resources. If for no other reason, than a truck doesn't take more than 5 days to cross the country now. So you only need a 5 day food budget.
 

Remorseless1

Prince
Joined
Jan 24, 2022
Messages
589
You know, 40 years ago, inflation topped out at an annual rate of 15.2%. This came at the end of a small recession. I was 23 and I can assure you it was way worse. Fuel prices more than doubled.

Speaking of recessions: I went back and checked to make sure my memory was correct. In every decade since I was born, there was at least one recession. There were two in the Sixties and two in the Eighties.
 

Birdjaguar

Hanafubuki
Super Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
50,429
Location
Albuquerque, NM
I see nothing wrong with the conclusions that the trendlines can only be extrapolated so far. Even I, the weirdest transhumanist on CFC in the aughties, didn't know what I was going to do after I colonized a star. The definition of growth we have now isn't really workable. Applying it to whatever happens after any step-change surprises (up or down) doesn't really make sense either.

As a parent, I do get distressed at graphs that end at 2100 CE. I've kids who'll be alive then. Some of the people on the board will be alive then. Like, we kinda should have some guesses as to what might happen then, and then tweak towards the better possible outcomes.
There may well be some of you posting here that will be alive in 2100, but I suspect most of those won't really care much about the extended future. At the point in life one's focus tends to be more day to day.
 

Denkt

Left Forever
Joined
Jul 3, 2012
Messages
3,989
You know, 40 years ago, inflation topped out at an annual rate of 15.2%. This came at the end of a small recession. I was 23 and I can assure you it was way worse. Fuel prices more than doubled.

Speaking of recessions: I went back and checked to make sure my memory was correct. In every decade since I was born, there was at least one recession. There were two in the Sixties and two in the Eighties.
In USA it seems like the last 50 years have been quite bad for average workers due to inflation of consumer prices eating up pretty much all wage growth. So complaining about inflation and or low wage growth seems pretty valid.

Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees
 

Remorseless1

Prince
Joined
Jan 24, 2022
Messages
589
No, we need to start complaining and voting about the huge flaws in capitalism our elected representatives don't want to effectively address.
 

Denkt

Left Forever
Joined
Jul 3, 2012
Messages
3,989
No, we need to start complaining and voting about the huge flaws in capitalism our elected representatives don't want to effectively address.
However the various countries seems to have peformed very differently, the problem for USA which is probably the worst performing "rich" country seems to be strongly tied to that a few key items such healthcare, education, childcare and rent gotten way too expensive while also being of doubious quality.
 

Kaitzilla

Lord Croissant
Supporter
Joined
Jun 21, 2008
Messages
11,804
Location
America!
The strike has been averted on the last day! :D

No more firings for unexpected trips to the hospital.

The national railroad strike is back on, possibly for December 9th! :nya:


SMART-TD, one of the largest railroad labor unions, voted down the tentative agreement with rail management, raising the likelihood of a strike in December. The BLET, the other largest union which represents engineers, voted to ratify the labor deal but said it will honor the picket line.

“We stood shoulder to shoulder with our brothers and sisters in SMART-TD and others in rail labor throughout this process and we will continue to stand in solidarity with them as we approach the finish line in this round of negotiations,” said BLET President Dennis Pierce.

Will they really do it before Christmas though?
 

Kaitzilla

Lord Croissant
Supporter
Joined
Jun 21, 2008
Messages
11,804
Location
America!
Ugh, we need less inflation not more.

Now that the mid-term elections are over, Biden has granted MBS immunity on November 18 for murdering that journalist.


Any lingering worry he might have felt likely lifted after the White House said the prince, known as MBS, had immunity in a civil lawsuit filed by the former fiancée of Jamal Khashoggi who was murdered and dismembered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

The decision by the Biden administration granting MBS immunity drew immediate condemnation from Kashoggi's former fiancé Hatice Cengiz, who tweeted, "We thought maybe there would be a light to justice from #USA But again, money came first."

The Saudis have responded in the usual fashion that Washington loves the most.

 

Lexicus

Deity
Joined
Aug 28, 2007
Messages
28,731
Location
Sovereign State of the Have-Nots
Ugh, we need less inflation not more.

Now that the mid-term elections are over, Biden has granted MBS immunity on November 18 for murdering that journalist.




The Saudis have responded in the usual fashion that Washington loves the most.


This kind of thing is why anyone who thinks the US really cares about human rights is a fool
 
Top Bottom