The death of American football.

[emzie]

There's a couple of fantastic articles on ESPN right now about the crisis football is headed towards from concussion-related injuries.

Some background on people suffering multiple concussions: CTE

SINCE ROGER GOODELL became commissioner in 2006, the NFL has taken measures to improve brain safety -- and fend off critics of its concussion policies. These steps continued in this year's playoffs, when the league used sideline video monitors so doctors could replay hits before clearing injured players.

The NFL deserves cheers for immediately reviewing dangerous hits. But a rising chorus of former players is demanding the league be held responsible for injuries suffered during the years the NFL claimed there was no evidence linking concussions and long-term brain damage. In 21 lawsuits across six states, more than 300 players and their families are charging the NFL with negligence, and in some cases fraud and conspiracy, saying the league should have done more to warn them about the consequences of brain trauma. In a statement to ESPN The Magazine, NFL spokesman Greg Aiello strongly disputes those claims: "Any allegation that the NFL intentionally sought to mislead players has no merit. It stands in contrast to the league's actions to better protect players and advance the science and medical understanding of the management and treatment of concussions."

...

For 15 years after its launch in 1994, the NFL's concussions committee denied -- despite vocal opposition from independent researchers -- there was evidence that repeated concussions have ill effects on player health, such as depression and dementia. And the longtime head of the committee, rheumatologist Elliot Pellman, dismissed the first diagnoses of chronic traumatic encephalopathy, the brain damage that comes from head trauma, as "speculative and unscientific."

In 2009, the NFL finally overhauled the committee and admitted for the first time that concussions can lead to long-term problems. But Goodell hasn't exactly cleaned house. Pellman stepped down from the concussion committee but is still the league's chief medical adviser, which underscores the commish's own long-term problem: The NFL can't cling to its old claims that concussions didn't harm players, but it also can't completely repudiate its own research and risk massive liability.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7...ll-doing-enough-concussions-nfl-espn-magazine

Now the take from a few economists suggesting that concussion-related law suits could make insuring high school / college teams next to impossible. As the NFL's feeder system dried up, there'd be an even more stark shift towards who plays football.

The NFL is done for the year, but it is not pure fantasy to suggest that it may be done for good in the not-too-distant future. How might such a doomsday scenario play out and what would be the economic and social consequences?

By now we're all familiar with the growing phenomenon of head injuries and cognitive problems among football players, even at the high school level. In 2009, Malcolm Gladwell asked whether football might someday come to an end, a concern seconded recently by Jonah Lehrer.

Before you say that football is far too big to ever disappear, consider the history: If you look at the stocks in the Fortune 500 from 1983, for example, 40 percent of those companies no longer exist. The original version of Napster no longer exists, largely because of lawsuits. No matter how well a business matches economic conditions at one point in time, it's not a lock to be a leader in the future, and that is true for the NFL too. Sports are not immune to these pressures. In the first half of the 20th century, the three big sports were baseball, boxing, and horse racing, and today only one of those is still a marquee attraction.

The most plausible route to the death of football starts with liability suits.1 Precollegiate football is already sustaining 90,000 or more concussions each year. If ex-players start winning judgments, insurance companies might cease to insure colleges and high schools against football-related lawsuits. Coaches, team physicians, and referees would become increasingly nervous about their financial exposure in our litigious society. If you are coaching a high school football team, or refereeing a game as a volunteer, it is sobering to think that you could be hit with a $2 million lawsuit at any point in time. A lot of people will see it as easier to just stay away. More and more modern parents will keep their kids out of playing football, and there tends to be a "contagion effect" with such decisions; once some parents have second thoughts, many others follow suit. We have seen such domino effects with the risks of smoking or driving without seatbelts, two unsafe practices that were common in the 1960s but are much rarer today. The end result is that the NFL's feeder system would dry up and advertisers and networks would shy away from associating with the league, owing to adverse publicity and some chance of being named as co-defendants in future lawsuits.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7559458/cte-concussion-crisis-economic-look-end-football

The grandland article is fantastic and I really recommend reading the whole piece.

I think there's a lot of antipathy in fans towards the plight of players. On this forum, I've read on multiple occasions posters expressing disgust that the NFL was cracking down on big showy hits. These were comments that more or less reflected a gladiatorial love of football. I fear that desire is really going to hurt the sport headed forward.

So is football in danger? Might football one day mean the same thing in Europe and North America? What can be done to save the sport?

 

[Kraznaya]

Football can survive if we got rid of helmets.

 

[emzie]

Football can survive if we got rid of helmets.

That was the odd conclusion I came away with as well. Rugby isn't the safest thing in the world, but I get the impression that it has fewer major concussions. It's a contact sport rather than a collision sport.

 

[Azale]

Convert it to soccer, keep the same team names and stadiums.

This article thoroughly convinced me that this game is over in a decade or two. Goodell has exactly this nightmare scenario on his mind and he's been trying to fight it for 5 years now. I don't see how he can succeed.

 

[shortguy]

Soccer actually has potentially similar concerns, with repeated heading of the ball possibly causing similar brain trauma. And concussions have caused serious issues with soccer players before, with MLS star and fringe US national Taylor Twellman having been forced to retire because of them. To its credit it doesn't cause all the body contact issues football does, though, and it also doesn't encourage unhealthy size in players.

 

[Quackers]

No great tragedy after all. Remember you just run at one another at 30 seconds, stop for 5 minutes then repeat.

 

[Azale]

No great tragedy after all. Remember you just run at one another at 30 seconds, stop for 5 minutes then repeat.

@shortguy, but it can't be as endemic as it is in football? I mean, I was mostly kidding with my suggestion, but the MLS has to benefit from the NFL's decline. I wouldn't mind some kind of evolution to some weird rugby hybrid, but the NFL is leaning on the spectacle of the vertical passing game...which I would think produces the worst of concussions.

I DUNNO!

 

[ummmm........]

I think I'd side with the 'too big to fail' camp, and also agree that reducing rather than improving protective gear is the way to go. Doing away with shoulder pads -- which serve solely as weapons and have no protective purpose other than ensuring you can hit someone with your shoulder again the next play -- would be a huge help. Of course helmets would have to be softened at the same time . . .

 

[Azale]

This is the fairly sucky response from the fairly sucky Mike Florio.

@umm, yea...you need corresponding rule changes before you can start removing safety equipment. Those rule changes would then lead to some of the conclusions stated by the authors Basically, the death of the NFL as we know it.

 

[Dachs]

This is the fairly sucky response from the fairly sucky Mike Florio.

That's not a valid link, chief.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

That was the odd conclusion I came away with as well. Rugby isn't the safest thing in the world, but I get the impression that it has fewer major concussions. It's a contact sport rather than a collision sport.

Rugby League on the other hand is most certainly a collision sport (different sport to what most Americans perceive as rugby) . I think the fact that you can get belted in American football from all angles and without being able to prepare for it is what makes the hits so dangerous , and frankly awesome . I'm confident RL stacks up though in the brutal hits department .

 

[Azale]

That's not a valid link, chief.

My bad.

 

[dIZZyBlIZZy]

It seems to have been stated, but certain protective gear has been better used as weapons. What hasn't been said, but should be noted, is the vast majority of NFL head injuries happen to quarterbacks. With the rest of the field, I'm more worried about backs, legs, and knees. Any player can get any injury at any time (except maybe punters), but you should focus on the highest risk first, then work on the rest.

Every time this issue comes up, I am reminded of something my old captain said frequently, "The ship is an inherently dangerous place, but that doesn't mean it has to be unsafe." That applies to the NFL equally.

Quick Troy Aikman story - after taking a sack once, he went back to the sidelines and told a trainer that he lost a contact lens. The trainer responded "Troy, you don't wear contacts anymore." Those head hits can get bad.

 

[Takhisis]

there was evidence that repeated concussions have ill effects on player health

Who'd have thought of that?

 

[classical_hero]

Rugby League on the other hand is most certainly a collision sport (different sport to what most Americans perceive as rugby) . I think the fact that you can get belted in American football from all angles and without being able to prepare for it is what makes the hits so dangerous , and frankly awesome . I'm confident RL stacks up though in the brutal hits department .

Union is a collision sport and it can happen more regularly than League. Concussion is a problem in any sport where the head might get hit. It is a problem in three of the four footy codes in Australia and I think AFL has the worst problem due to the fast nature of the sport and the fact that you can get hit from all areas of the ground.

 

[Arwon]

You guys (and us) should nationalise liability insurance into a no-fault insurance system backed by the government. New Zealand does it pretty well and it brings liaiblity insurance costs down dramatically.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Union is a collision sport and it can happen more regularly than League

Are you sure you are not concussed ? I have no problem with your preference , but to suggest that either the volume or ferocity of the collisions in the 2 games are similar is just ridiculous , and simple statistics would bare this out .

AFL has the worst problem due to the fast nature of the sport and the fact that you can get hit from all areas of the ground.

This , on the other hand has merit , but still , from a sheer "massive guys repeatedly getting smashed in hits we love to watch" point of view , rugby league is the only sport that can genuinely rival American football

 

[classical_hero]

Are you sure you are not concussed ? I have no problem with your preference , but to suggest that either the volume or ferocity of the collisions in the 2 games are similar is just ridiculous , and simple statistics would bare this out./QUOTE]

Watch this video and there are plenty more. Also the men are often far bigger than the league guys so the force is so much stronger.

Link to video.

 

[Quackers]

I watched the first minute of that CH and a lot of those "tackles" seem to be illegal. High and around the neck is dangerous and its ineffective to actually tackle somebody. Those dump tackles look extremely dangerous too, a quick glance at the rules mean the tackled player has to land on his back but a lot in that video seemed to land on their shoulder/neck.

So yeah I don't like those "big rugby" hits when the tackle is rubbish technically, the tackler just seems to do anything he can to get the opponent to the floor :s

 

[Azale]

You guys (and us) should nationalise liability insurance into a no-fault insurance system backed by the government. New Zealand does it pretty well and it brings liaiblity insurance costs down dramatically.

Yea...the NFL can try and fight that battle if it wants (sell it as the only way to save America's Game), it probably makes a lot of sense but anything with the phrase "backed by the government" is going to result in a nasty political fight.

But even with that, I still feel kinda weird watching people destroy their brains for my entertainment. When I was younger, I assumed since careers ended fairly early for most NFL players that they would recover from any injuries suffered during their playing days. That was stupidly naive looking back on it.