[RD] The Democratic Nomination

[Sommerswerd]

A 25% reduction in the prevalence of a minority is a pretty big deal in demographic terms. No, you were talking about the city of Asheville. He was talking about Buncombe County. You do realize that a lot of those county residents commute to work in the city, right? In terms of what you observe on a daily basis when you walk around town, the county numbers do matter, especially given that the portion of the county outside the city has twice the residents of the city.

It's not quite 25% but your point is well made, that a substantial reduction in the minority population is noteworthy for our purposes. Especially given how dependent Hillary has been on the minority vote, and even more especially given the reliably Democratic status of the black vote combined with the reliably split white vote creating a dynamic where the black vote is essentially doubled vis-à-vis the state percentage in the Democratic primary.

I also missed that he mentioned the county, thanks. I guess its fair to say he was talking about both. However, I will add that your perception of the city being lily-white was in-error, regardless of whether it was justified.

The last point, and ultimately, to your point, the most important, possibly is whether NC delegates are awarded based on the number of counties won or on a percentage basis based on the overall state percentages. If it is the former, then again, you are right that the county percentage of blacks is of paramount importance. If it is the latter, however, this discussion is purely academic. I honestly don't know the answer.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I also missed that he mentioned the county, thanks. I guess its fair to say he was talking about both. However, I will add that your perception of the city being lily-white was in-error, regardless of whether it was justified.

This seems to be the case with regard to the residents of Asheville proper. As I stated, one thing that's probably going on is all the commuters from the suburbs during the day. Another thing would be that my perception would have been relative to living and working in various places elsewhere in a state that's 21% black. In particular, if you travel from Greensboro to Asheville then you're likely to immediately wonder, "Where are all the African Americans?" I agree with your contention that lily-white probably overstates the facts, but in context it sure feels that way.

The last point, and ultimately, to your point, the most important, possibly is whether NC delegates are awarded based on the number of counties won or on a percentage basis based on the overall state percentages. If it is the former, then again, you are right that the county percentage of blacks is of paramount importance. If it is the latter, however, this discussion is purely academic. I honestly don't know the answer.

If I'm reading this right, North Carolina is one of the few states where allocation is purely derived from the statewide vote. It looks like there are statewide delegates and congressional district delegates, with the congressional district delegates elected by the district but bound to vote at the convention on the basis of the statewide vote. What this functionally means is that NC is going to send a delegation that's as reflective of the statewide voting percentages as possible, as there doesn't seem to be a minimum vote threshold.

To put it succinctly - NC is a fully proportional state but it gets there in a rather arcane way.

 

[rah]

The KC Royals CF from the 1980s?

J

That's what I thought at first until I saw an actual ad for him this morning in Chicago. He's an actual candidate.

Then I had to crack out laughing, reading the Chicago Tribune's endorsements for President. Rubio on the Repug side and based on all the expensive promises that both H and B have been doing, the paper refused to endorse either. Considering that Many here consider Hillary a local girl, I was surprised. (note that the trib is generally considered a conservative paper)

 

[metalhead]

Doesn't the Tribune pull that crap every time there is a competitive Dem primary?

I will actually be very interested to see if they endorse Trump in the general. They endorsed Bush in 2004, but it was an extremely qualified endorsement, they said something really melodramatic like "It is with a heavy heart that we endorse George W. Bush." It was quite amusing.

 

[rah]

With the exception of Chicago's golden child (Obama) the republican usually gets the nod. Prior to that I think the last time a Dem got it was Slick Willie's second term.

 

[Sommerswerd]

With the exception of Chicago's golden child (Obama) the republican usually gets the nod. Prior to that I think the last time a Dem got it was Slick Willie's second term.

Sounds to me like they just like to endorse the winner.

 

[rah]

Coincidence. The trib is the conservative rag in town. So it's rare where the dem in a national or statewide election gets the endorsement. Locally is a different picture considering there is really only one party in the city.

 

[_random_]

So if a best-case day for Sanders next Tuesday involves winning Ohio and Missouri while keeping margins down in NC and FL where does he start to catch up on delegates? I understand he has momentum but mathematically I don't see where he starts to actually make up for his huge margins of loss in the South.

This article presents a detailed breakdown of how Sanders could emerge with a (very) slight majority of pledge delegates. It's a longshot, sure, but it seems feasible. Keep in mind that both of the most delegate-rich states, New York and California, have yet to vote.

 

[ls612]

This article presents a detailed breakdown of how Sanders could emerge with a (very) slight majority of pledge delegates. It's a longshot, sure, but it seems feasible. Keep in mind that both of the most delegate-rich states, New York and California, have yet to vote.

Sure it is possible, especially if Clinton screws up in a big way, but I don't think it is realistic. I really don't want to see another Clinton in the white house but I don't think Sanders is the one who can prevent it (and don't like Sanders' policies to boot).

 

[_random_]

So vote for a Republican then?

 

[onejayhawk]

So vote for a Republican then?

Obviously. They have their act together, except for that Trump guy and the Canadian.

J

 

[ls612]

So vote for a Republican then?

I caucused for Kasich, he seems to have his head screwed on straight. For me personally Trump vs Hillary would be unpalatable on both sides which is why I hope that doesn't happen.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So if a best-case day for Sanders next Tuesday involves winning Ohio and Missouri while keeping margins down in NC and FL where does he start to catch up on delegates? I understand he has momentum but mathematically I don't see where he starts to actually make up for his huge margins of loss in the South.

Hillary Clinton was in this exact same position eight years ago, and she overcame it. Sanders just needs to become her Secretary of State.

 

[onejayhawk]

As I said before, the office has been gift wrapped but there is no one to whom we should give it.

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I caucused for Kasich, he seems to have his head screwed on straight.

I agree. Curious that the GOP has not branded "RINO" across his forehead and run him out yet.

 

[Lexicus]

John "COP21 should be about ISIS not climate change" Kasich?

 

[_random_]

John "actually believes anthropogenic climate change exists" Kasich.

It's all about framing yo.

 

[Lexicus]

John "actually believes anthropogenic climate change exists" Kasich.

I guess I should have it through my head that we're dealing with the Republican "lower your standards" Party here.

 

[onejayhawk]

I agree. Curious that the GOP has not branded "RINO" across his forehead and run him out yet.

With Trump in the race? You cannot be serious. Trump defines RINO.

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

With Trump in the race? You cannot be serious. Trump defines RINO.

J

I didn't mean "out of the race" and by "yet" I didn't mean anything recent. Kasich by all indications should have been a casualty in the purges that drove me out, during Dubya's first term. How he got through that is a bigger mystery than how Drumpf got in. Even a RINO is welcome if he can pay the fee.