The Dutch EU Constitution Referendum

[AceChilla]

Tomorrow is the day the future of the EU is decided. Well not really, but if the Dutch also vote NO after France the constitution is in big problems. Blair said they may not even hold a referendum if the Dutch vote NO, so then 3 mayor EU countries are pulling out. What do you think, will we vote yes or no?

 

[Stapel]

I will probably vote "Yes".

 

[The Last Conformist]

No idea how the Dutch will vote, but I don't think the constitution will survive the French non anyway.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

Im going to go out on a limb, and say "Ja". I think possibly by then (its a little too soon though, it'll be close) the full implications of killing the EU constitution will have sunk in, and they'll back away from the precipice.

 

[classical_hero]

I think they will vote no, not that it mattered anymore.

 

[luiz]

I think the dutch will vote "No", from what I've seen in polls. The french non will probably boost the dutch nee.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

No idea how the Dutch will vote, but I don't think the constitution will survive the French non anyway.

If I understand correctly, if no more countries vote against it, its not officially dead yet. They would still be able to ammend it and present it to the voters again in a few months.

 

[Scuffer]

The Dutch'll vote no.

I heard this morning that one of the main reasons they will is the possible inclusion of Turkey in the future. i'm beginnning to understand just how difficult it was to get the consitiution to this stage. France reject because it's not socialist enough, the UK would reject because it's too socialist, and the Dutch don't like for a whole different reason.

How it is ever going to work with so many conflicting issues, I don't know.

 

[The Last Conformist]

Well, one of the problems with this one is that it's horribly long and regulates a great many things that don't need be in a constitution. Something shorter, comprehensibler and less micromanaging ought be easier to push thru. The US constition is a little leaflet - the current EU constitutional proposal is a heavy tome.

 

[Scuffer]

True, but the US consititution was written in a time before sugarbeet subsidies and regulations over whether a Jaffa Cake is a biscuit or a cake, or packing foam with orange jelly on top.

I'd lay good money if the 50 states tried to sit down and write a consitution today, there'd be civil war by this time next week.

 

[The Last Conformist]

Possibly true, but there's no reason why the degree of state control of the economy should be put into a frikken constitution!

 

[IglooDame]

True, but the US consititution was written in a time before sugarbeet subsidies and regulations over whether a Jaffa Cake is a biscuit or a cake, or packing foam with orange jelly on top.

I'd lay good money if the 50 states tried to sit down and write a consitution today, there'd be civil war by this time next week.

Indeed. It is difficult to imagine a modern politician with the slightest amount of ambition approving a clause like "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."

But, I think the EU is going to have to take a step back, drop the "consolidation of all the treaties" bit, and start from scratch. The people drafting it need to think like leaders, not like politicians, and they need to keep it simple.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Well, the thing is that it's not a constitution establishing one sovereign state. It's a treaty signed by 25 sovereign states. Only the 1st part really sound like a constitution... but no one talks about the 1st part, everybody focus on the 3rd part which encompasses ALL the former treaties.

In the Dutch reject of the Constitution, there's before everything a reject of France's implication in Europe. Somewhere I hope that after France's reject, they'll be tempted to let France being marginalized alone. However hopes are small. The "nee" is above 60% in the Netherlands. You can't change an opinion so fast.

 

[IglooDame]

Well, the thing is that it's not a constitution establishing one sovereign state. It's a treaty signed by 25 sovereign states. Only the 1st part really sound like a constitution... but no one talks about the 1st part, everybody focus on the 3rd part which encompasses ALL the former treaties.

In the Dutch reject of the Constitution, there's before everything a reject of France's implication in Europe. Somewhere I hope that after France's reject, they'll be tempted to let France being marginalized alone. However hopes are small. The "nee" is above 60% in the Netherlands. You can't change an opinion so fast.

Marla, are you familiar with the concept of herding cats? I'm not sure you can tightly economically, politically, and militarily bind 25 sovereign states together without a large loss of sovereignty on each state's part, or without making it a worthless additional level of political bureaucracy. As someone else said, the original US 13-colony confederation, the 1860s US Confederacy, and the CIS are all failed examples of that type of unification. What are some successful examples of it?

 

[Bozo Erectus]

The "nee" is above 60% in the Netherlands. You can't change an opinion so fast.

Theres no need to change opinions. Just robbing enough momentum from the nee camp so that their voters dont turn out in such great numbers as they might have, and at the same time, energizing the ja side and motivating them to get out and vote, could be all thats necessary. Not an easy thing, but the right speech by the right person at the right time could do it. Does the Netherlands have a ja leader thats up to the task?

 

[The Last Conformist]

Well, the thing is that it's not a constitution establishing one sovereign state. It's a treaty signed by 25 sovereign states. Only the 1st part really sound like a constitution... but no one talks about the 1st part, everybody focus on the 3rd part which encompasses ALL the former treaties.

That's part of the problem; it's chiefly a consolidation/updating of previous treaties, but everyone calls it a "Constitution".

The EU's administrative framework, the treaties, have, this far, grown by accretion. Sooner or later we'll have to take a step back and systematize it all into some coherent whole.

 

[Marla_Singer]

No, it's not simply a consolidation of previous treaties. That's how it sounds because of the 3rd part, but that's certainly not the case.

The 1st part is clearly an important step to a better represented European Union. A more political Union which clearly means a more democratic Union. But the first part represents only 60 articles, when the third part represents 350 articles. So when we have the treaty in our hands, we see only the consolidation part.

That treaty is before everything a reform of the Institutions. That's the truth and that's what we have failed to make understand to everyone.

 

[The Last Conformist]

I said 'chiefly', not 'simply'.

I don't know about France, but here alot of people are against it because they're suspicious against "Brussels", not because of what is or is not in it.

 

[Rik Meleet]

Theres no need to change opinions. Just robbing enough momentum from the nee camp so that their voters dont turn out in such great numbers as they might have, and at the same time, energizing the ja side and motivating them to get out and vote, could be all thats necessary. Not an easy thing, but the right speech by the right person at the right time could do it. Does the Netherlands have a ja leader thats up to the task?

That momentum-robbing smells like very dirty politics and counter-democratic...

No, the Netherlands do not have a Ja-leader that's up to the task. So far the Ja-kamp has been split by 2 sides; 1 side being the parties in Government which have done nothing but threatening the citizens and treating the nee-voters as ******s. The 2nd side are the left-of-center parties who at least have been reasonable, but so far haven't been able to convince the citizens that Ja is the way to vote.

At least there is not a Ja-leader that is up to the task to turn my vote around. When I first heard of the Constitution my response was: "Yes of course", but that quickly changed to "No way" when I read it. And so far I still haven't heard 1 convincing reason for a Ja-vote.

 

[a space oddity]

...Does the Netherlands have a ja leader thats up to the task?

No. Balkenende said: "if you vote no, I will look like a fool..."
I think I'll vote yes anyway, BTW.