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The Fate of the Two-Party System in America

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Keirador, Jul 28, 2005.

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What will come of the defeat of the Democrats?

  1. Eventually, the Democrats will re-emerge as a winning party.

    48 vote(s)
    51.6%
  2. The Republicans shall become the sole party.

    5 vote(s)
    5.4%
  3. Once the Dems die, the Republicans shall split, restoring two-party politics.

    13 vote(s)
    14.0%
  4. Once the Dems die, another party (Green, Reform, Libertarian) shall rise up to replace it.

    7 vote(s)
    7.5%
  5. Something else (maybe involving three major parties?)

    20 vote(s)
    21.5%
  1. Keirador

    Keirador Deity

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    A lot of people think that the Republicans and Democrats are as permanent as Gibraltar. This is untrue. Where are the Whigs? The Federalists? The Jeffersonian Democrats? The Populists? Throughout American history, major parties have risen and fallen. The Republicans of today only date back to the 1850s, and even then they were the liberal party compared to the conservative Democrats. It seems to me like it's about time for another major shift in politics.

    It should be apperent to everyone who is paying attention that the Republicans are winning in America. Republicans have a clear majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Republican governors control a majority of states, including the four largest, Texas, Florida, and even typically Democratic California and New York. A Republican president was re-elected, despite being wildly unpopular, mainly because no one wanted to vote for the Democrat. The Supreme Court, with the replacement of O'Connor, is now a pretty even split, but that is expected to change, especially if, as if expected, a Republican wins the Presidency in 2008.

    Combine this with the fact that the Republicans are simply outbreeding the Democrats. On average, Republicans have larger families than Democrats; a natural side-effect of one party "focusing on the family" and courting fecund and non-contraceptive-using religious folk, and the other party embracing abortion. It has been a Republican strategy for years, speculated to have been spear-headed by G.W. Bush himself, to ease up restrictions on Latin immigration, realizing that devout Catholic immigrants will, once they become settled in their new home, likely embrace the religious right and Republicanism. It is a future dominated by Republicans, from this angle.

    Temper this idea with the notion that fissures seem to be opening within the Republican party itself. There seem to be two camps, a radical, "neo-conservative", uber-Christian group led by our Mr. Bush, and a more moderate, actually conservative, Reagan-esque group, led by good folks like Mr. McCain.

    So, what is to become of the American system?

    Poll Coming.
     
  2. ybbor

    ybbor Will not change his avata

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    voted for the first option, closest, but not acurate. they still are a viable party. they controlled congress for 40 years; and we survived, I expect them to do the same
     
  3. kronic

    kronic Deity

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    The Democrats obviously don't appeal to the centre anymore. This can have two reasons: they moved too much to the left or the centre is more to the right than it was years ago. Both will probably make the Democratic Party more republican in the long run.
     
  4. A'AbarachAmadan

    A'AbarachAmadan Deity

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    I still think the Dems are a very viable party, so I vote for option 0, they are still viable. You are looking extremely short term. The Republicans don't have a large majority (meaning 60 votes) in the Senate. Hence the Democrats can block legislation and the President is still forced to the middle for many issues. If not, we would have an energy policy different than was just passed, would already have SS reform, and would have a dangerous level of tax cuts. I really like the centrist coalition in the Senate and hope it becomes an actual party. If a right-wing Republican is the candidate in '08 we will see Senator Clinton become President Clinton. McCain (and possibly Rice) can beat her.
     
  5. farting bob

    farting bob ThEy MaDe Me Do iT.

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    Why dont you have any options favouring the democrats? They are still a viable party, they just need a strong, well known leader, which they have lacked since clinton. If they can win back the key states they lost in the last 2 elections (from what i hear they havent suddenly gone into republican strong hold) then they should do much better next time.
    Who's replacing shrub for the next election canditate anyway?
    IMO the democrats arent as stuffed as you make them out to be.
     
  6. h4ppy

    h4ppy You sir, pineapple?

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    Of course the Democrats are still viable. they just need to shed some of their more weighty dogma. (the Republicans should do the same actually)
     
  7. SeleucusNicator

    SeleucusNicator Diadoch

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    I think that the Republican Party will cease to exist after their next big victory, assuming they build on their 2004 gains.

    Once the Democrats are eliminated, debate in Congress will shift from being Democrats v Republicans to being Moderate Republicans v Conservative Republicans. Once that happpens, I think you'll see the moderate wing of the party split off and merge with the ruins of the Democracy.

    Of course, should the Democrats somehow come back, the common enemy will keep the Republicans united.
     
  8. Keirador

    Keirador Deity

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    You share my view exactly, SN.

    For all who disagree with my first poll option, just imagine it says "winning" instead of "viable". I'll PM a mod for a change.
     
  9. SeleucusNicator

    SeleucusNicator Diadoch

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    As for the electoral chances of the Democratic Party:

    1) They have no chance at Congress in either 2006 or 2008. The distribution of seats up for election in 2006 makes it an all but certain Republican majority increase, or, at the very least, a net loss of a seat or two or three for the RNC. Not enough to even go back to 2003-2005 proportions. In 2008, should 2006 result in a loss of 2-3 GOP seats, the Democrats may have an outside shot at the Senate, but I doubt 2006 will go that way. The House is safely Republican pending the results of the next wave of redistricting.

    2) The Democrats have a shot at the White House in 2008. I'm not saying they're a shoo-in, I'm saying they have a shot, maybe about 50% chance.

    3) The Democrats should focus in 2006 not on Congress, but on state legislatures. The advantages are many:
    a) state legislatures can be won on local issues, rather than on the party's unpopular national platform
    b) state legislatures can be used to gerrymander the house in 2011, letting the Democrats capture that chamber in 2012.
     
  10. Mark1031

    Mark1031 Deity

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    This is hilarious. No doubt the Republicans have made great gains. The Dems became comfortable and corrupt in the 60s and 70s. The Republicans very effectively built a coalition using the Southern strategy (ie racism) disipline and social wedge issues. Good work. But in the last 4 presidential elections the person with the most votes were Clinton, Clinton, Gore, Bush (52:48), not a ringing endorsement for an encumbent war time Pres. And in case you havent noticed the polls lately the people are not that happy with Republican leadership. The Dems have a bit of an internal struggle and if they can get their act together which I think they will at least by 08 the hubris behind your question will become apparent.
     
  11. h4ppy

    h4ppy You sir, pineapple?

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    Ofcourse if you go back to the times of Nixon (who really started the turn around) you would find that the Republicans have been winning.
     
  12. Mark1031

    Mark1031 Deity

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    I generally agree with this analysis. They won't take either the house or sentate in 06. But I'm not so pessimistic about gains of some sort depending on candidate selection and whether they can develop a stronger national message.
     
  13. Keirador

    Keirador Deity

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    Pride? Self-confidence? I view the Republican dominance as terrifying, as I am a conservative, and the Republicans no longer stand for smaller government, less taxes, or less regulations. I endorse Republicans in the tradition of Reagan, perhaps a party headed by John McCain, but the Republicans of today, the "neo-conservatives" (read: NOT conservative) of Bush, are not my party. These developments do not cheer me. Ignorant contempt is always nice to hear, though.

    And I acknowledge that Bush has incredibly low approval ratings. This makes his victory in 2004 all the more alarming. The Democrats could not beat one of the least popular Presidents we've ever had. That alarms me greatly. Doesn't it alarm you?
     
  14. Mark1031

    Mark1031 Deity

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    Quite true Nixon,Nixon Carter Regan Regan BushI. 1 for six very bad but of course the Dems controlled the house and senate during that time. The Republicans hoping for Roosevelt style dominance and poilcy change I think will be sorely disappointed.
     
  15. FredLC

    FredLC A Lawyer as You Can See! Retired Moderator

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    What, no radioactive monkey party for me to vote at? Damn...

    Seriously, I don't know the inner workings of US politics to pick a choice. I do know though that these things tends to come and go in circles. So I think it's a bit too soon to either mourn or celebrate the demise of the Dems, even though they are being bushwacker lately (at least as far as my knowledge as a foreigner allows me to perceive).

    Regards :).
     
  16. Sims2789

    Sims2789 Fool me once...

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    What's sad is that they haven't really moved more to the left. They just don't have a united message and are too timid to take stands on moral issues. Instead of saying that the government shouldn't legizlate morality, they should get up there and say that, for example, legalizing gay marriage is the right thing to do and say why. In pertaining to this example, they should also say that legalizing gay marriage doesn't force anyone to do anything, but banning it does.
     
  17. Keirador

    Keirador Deity

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    Sims: If the Democrats took a stand on anything at all, I'd be inclined to vote for them over the neo-cons. I disagree with liberalism, but as there's no longer a real conservative party, I'll go with the lesser of two evils. Like you say, though, there's no united Democratic platform.
     
  18. Mark1031

    Mark1031 Deity

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    It certainly does. The Dems have been weak and in transition since the early 70's I don’t deny that. They had a lock on the house and chairmanships and that is where the power resided. The Republicans functioned much better as a political party and took advantage of the fact that the South was ripe for picking and found the methods for doing so. They framed the issues and the Dems played defense while giving ground and losing ground the whole way. The dispute now is how to make a comeback. The DLC types say grab the middle more. This is stupid IMO. When the establishment republicans were in the wasteland did they move more to the middle. No they moved to the right, they picked wedge issues wisely and framed their opponents wisely. I’m not saying they need to move to the left but they need to pick populist issues that play to the working class economic anxiety. They need to be tough but smart on terror. They should be calling for us to get out of Iraq. I have the slogan “We gave the Iraqis a helping hand and now it is time for them to help themselves”. They need to compromise on the social issues and stop appearing anti religious, they are not. And they need to pick candidates that are not so freaking stiff in presidential elections and have conviction in what they say rather than appearing to always be calculating (Gore was like this in the debates but not on the stump. Kerry was great in the debates but sucked everywhere else; he really needed the time limits). The American people will forgive a gaff much more than insincere doublespeak. They also need to be completely unified and impose some party discipline so there is a coherent democratic face put forward. That and working to gain at the state level in anticipation of redistricting will put the dems back on the map.
     
  19. Elrohir

    Elrohir RELATIONAL VALORIZATION

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    I think the Dems will rise to power again. It may take a few years, but I doubt that they are done for entirely.

    But, if I'm wrong, (And I hope I am) I hope for the Libertarian party to become a new party to fill the void where the Dems left off. Eventually our moral values and their conservative economic and freedom loving systems will wear off on each other, and we'll become pretty much the same - leading to the remerging of the two and the rise of a new party, and the cycle starts again.
     
  20. De Lorimier

    De Lorimier North American Scum

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    Stop the presses! Stop the freakin' presses!! :eek:
    I actually agree with something SN posted!

    The mods and cons factions within the Republican party will clash the day their common foes (the Democrats) will stop being relevant (wich is just around the corner in some parts of the US).

    Republican Mods are not that different from the Democrats: they're both pro-business tools. The only main difference is in the rethoric. The Republicans-Mods are not afraid to use the "God-talk" and the "Moral values" crap speech to gain votes. Someday, they will both see the light and start to screw Americans togheter . :D
     

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