Drewcifer
Agent of Karma
It seems that over the next 20 to 30 years China's relationship with the west will become more complicated. This issue seems to be on the back burner right now but that could easily change over night. China has tremendous economic problems to solve but at the same time has one of the highest economic growth rates in the world. It suffered great humiliation at the hands of the western powers in the last 300 years but appears to be slowly working towards regaining the status it had for most of the history of civilization.
I think the Communist party is in a very difficult position. They have liberalised much of the economy but are unable to reform the unproductive state sector because that would mean that huge numbers of people would become unemployed. I think they fear that mass unemployment could lead to social chaos. I think it's leaders probably fear something as chaotic and deadly as the Cultural Revolution returning. Though I am a strong supporter of democracy I really can't blame them for those fears. In many ways they are riding a tiger - as soon as they dismount they will be eaten by the thing that has carried them this far. Even if they wanted to institute democracy it could be suicide for them to do it.
We in the west like to think of democracy as the great uniter of people across national borders. But it is possible that a greater democratization in China could stoke the fires of an assertive nationalism given China's previous place in the world and the role the western powers played in reducing it? How will it's neighbors react to a newly assertive China?
Personally I hope that we can deal with the problems in a low profile way so that we don't back China into a corner where it feels like it must do something catastrophic to save face. Though I firmly support people's right to democratic self determination I fear that Taiwan may become needlessly bold and percipitate a war. Currently we have the fiction of one China but the practical reality of two. Under this system they both get to determine their own policies but nobody is embarassed so war is avoided. It is a messy, smelly and unpleseant solution that works. Will a Taiwanese declaration of independence push the region over a precepice? Since Taiwan is a democracy and an ally, the US would certainly defend it if it were attacked. I hope that China, Taiwan and the US can come to a behind the scenes agreement on this issue. For Taiwan the best solution is probably just to wait the decades it will take for China to become a full fledged liberal democracy and to not do anything foolish before. If that happens will two Chinas become one under some very loose federal system? I think so. I could be wrong.
Also, what is the European role? Is it anything beyond investment and commerce?
I think the Communist party is in a very difficult position. They have liberalised much of the economy but are unable to reform the unproductive state sector because that would mean that huge numbers of people would become unemployed. I think they fear that mass unemployment could lead to social chaos. I think it's leaders probably fear something as chaotic and deadly as the Cultural Revolution returning. Though I am a strong supporter of democracy I really can't blame them for those fears. In many ways they are riding a tiger - as soon as they dismount they will be eaten by the thing that has carried them this far. Even if they wanted to institute democracy it could be suicide for them to do it.
We in the west like to think of democracy as the great uniter of people across national borders. But it is possible that a greater democratization in China could stoke the fires of an assertive nationalism given China's previous place in the world and the role the western powers played in reducing it? How will it's neighbors react to a newly assertive China?
Personally I hope that we can deal with the problems in a low profile way so that we don't back China into a corner where it feels like it must do something catastrophic to save face. Though I firmly support people's right to democratic self determination I fear that Taiwan may become needlessly bold and percipitate a war. Currently we have the fiction of one China but the practical reality of two. Under this system they both get to determine their own policies but nobody is embarassed so war is avoided. It is a messy, smelly and unpleseant solution that works. Will a Taiwanese declaration of independence push the region over a precepice? Since Taiwan is a democracy and an ally, the US would certainly defend it if it were attacked. I hope that China, Taiwan and the US can come to a behind the scenes agreement on this issue. For Taiwan the best solution is probably just to wait the decades it will take for China to become a full fledged liberal democracy and to not do anything foolish before. If that happens will two Chinas become one under some very loose federal system? I think so. I could be wrong.
Also, what is the European role? Is it anything beyond investment and commerce?