The Generational-Linguistic Split

[GoodEnoughForMe]

To tl;dr this bad boy;

From age 20-80 the average generation becomes around 20% more conservative in voting patterns

In most* non English speaking western countries this trend is holding up; millennials are slowly and steadily becoming more conservative.

In literally every English speaking western country (US, Canada, Australia, UK, etc etc etc) not only are millennials NOT becoming more conservative, but they appear to be becoming even more left wing.

* Finland is an exception and this is a safe space for respecting Sanna Marin. Non-friendly interlocutors can get out.

Any guesses as to what’s going on here? I have a few but the reality is much of the stressors that conceivably push youth in Italy or France to the right exist in the UK.

I’ve uploaded some of the most pertinent examples but this twitter thread has even more:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609140065967509504

Also I typed this post on a phone so any typos can be blamed on BIG SMARTPHONE

 

[Arwon]

Have you seen house prices in the anglo countries lately. Couple it with the terrible state of renter rights and security and you've got a generation that essentially cannot form part of the ruling class without it being conferred on them from their parents.

Here's the 2022 election in Australia by property status:

A big chunk of that Homeowners "other" are still Coalition prerencing voters under the ranked/preferential voting system (the figure in 2019 was about 50% Coalition), so the two-party preferred split between Labor and Liberal would be substantially more stark than shown here.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Oh for sure, but for example, Denmark has the 3rd highest average housing/rental prices in Europe. Portugal, France, and Italy all have higher price to income ratios than Canada. That’s very much a thing but it’s a thing in essentially all of these countries.

 

[Arwon]

Can tenants in those countries nail a hook into a wall or get a cat without asking permission, and have long term secure leases without mandated regular inspections for cleanliness? Is real estate ownership a primary vehicle for speculative investment supported by tax breaks in those countries?

Also that link seems to show percentage growth since recent history, that's not quite a measure of absolute costs, especially how they've grown over a span of decades in real terms.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Millennials were the first generation to grow up in a digital world. Their experience of the world (western culture) was far removed from the previous ones. Many of the previous generations' conservative pressures as they age, haven't existed for Millennials.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Can tenants in those countries nail a hook into a wall or get a cat without asking permission, and have long term secure leases without mandated regular inspections for cleanliness? Is real estate ownership a primary vehicle for speculative investment supported by tax breaks in those countries?

Also that link seems to show percentage growth since recent history, that's not quite a measure of absolute costs, especially how they've grown over a span of decades in real terms.

I don’t know, I’d be curious at that in general too but that’s too granular for me! Someone help us.

The link has actual averages down past growth numbers further on the page.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Pets in apartments varies. Most places do not allow dogs for the obvious reason of noise and possible aggressiveness. That said, there is one place in town that allows dogs but not cats. And the law states that service dogs are allowed EVERYWHERE, even in no-pet apartments.

Cats require extra damage deposits/cat. I had to pay $250/cat when I moved in. Some places require the cat be spayed/neutered. One place required declawing. I hope those people experience pain in their lives, including having their fingers amputated to the first knuckle and not receiving artificial replacements.

No, I can't paint the walls. One of the sources of my not-infrequent bouts of depression comes from being constantly surrounded by light beige walls, rather than the cheerful apple-green walls and woodpanelling-patterned wallpaper of home. I don't have curtains. The managers snark and complain every time I want to put up a picture, but to hell with them. This is a mental health thing with me. My grandmothers' paintings improve it. Bare walls make it worse.

 

[Josu]

Thank you for the linked tweet, quite interesting.

In my personal experience, I would be in the Gen X line and becaming more lefty as I get older.
I can confirm the Spaniard graph for Milenials, its scaring how right is going this generation

 

[Zardnaar]

Can tenants in those countries nail a hook into a wall or get a cat without asking permission, and have long term secure leases without mandated regular inspections for cleanliness? Is real estate ownership a primary vehicle for speculative investment supported by tax breaks in those countries?

Also that link seems to show percentage growth since recent history, that's not quite a measure of absolute costs, especially how they've grown over a span of decades in real terms.

Talking about NZ or Aussie j/k?

Anyway the right has catered to boomers and essentially done nothing for the young why vote for them? Young being roughly a split with GenX and younger.

 

[Zardnaar]

Pets in apartments varies. Most places do not allow dogs for the obvious reason of noise and possible aggressiveness. That said, there is one place in town that allows dogs but not cats. And the law states that service dogs are allowed EVERYWHERE, even in no-pet apartments.

Cats require extra damage deposits/cat. I had to pay $250/cat when I moved in. Some places require the cat be spayed/neutered. One place required declawing. I hope those people experience pain in their lives, including having their fingers amputated to the first knuckle and not receiving artificial replacements.

No, I can't paint the walls. One of the sources of my not-infrequent bouts of depression comes from being constantly surrounded by light beige walls, rather than the cheerful apple-green walls and woodpanelling-patterned wallpaper of home. I don't have curtains. The managers snark and complain every time I want to put up a picture, but to hell with them. This is a mental health thing with me. My grandmothers' paintings improve it. Bare walls make it worse.

Here having a pet is becoming a middle class thing. Middle class being you own your house.

It's really hard getting pet friendly places and there's no pet bond mechanism. Even if you feel nd a place you might have to move.

Cousin is 22 she broke up with her man. She's moved back home and the landlord agreed to her cat as mum has been renting for close to 20 years from him paying 2010 prices.

 

[Narz]

One of the sources of my not-infrequent bouts of depression comes from being constantly surrounded by light beige walls, rather than the cheerful apple-green walls and woodpanelling-patterned wallpaper of home.

My gf hates white walls too.

Someday I hope I can have a proper homestead where it's worth my time to really go all out to decorate and make things really nice.

 

[Lexicus]

form part of the ruling class without it being conferred on them from their parents.

Forget entering the ruling class, most of us cannot even live comfortably because we're paying half or more of our income in rent.

Give this another couple of decades and we'll have a real communist movement again in the Anglo countries. I hope.

 

[Narz]

My parents very conservative/libertarian & I've become more left leaning as I've gotten older (and more critical of the massive self-owning the left tends to do)

Forget entering the ruling class, most of us cannot even live comfortably because we're paying half or more of our income in rent.

Yeah 1st time I heard the idea that rent should be covered w 3/4 of one's income to spare I was like lol wut. Except for three fairly good years my expenditure has always been like 90% rent and food, 10% everything else

Give this another couple of decades and we'll have a real communist movement again in the Anglo countries. I hope.

Maybe it can be shown successful in some smaller country otherwise people are just gonna look @ historical examples.

Certainly needs a rebranding

 

[Farm Boy]

Any guesses as to what’s going on here?

not only are millennials NOT becoming more conservative, but they appear to be becoming even more left wing.

My guess is there is a political-socio block of internationally communicating people that call themselves left wing by name, thier opponents right-wing by definition, when actually they're actually drifting conservative the way people always do. Terms and definitions crafted to support the conclusion.

 

[Evie]

I've always been of the opinion that the "people grow more conservative as they grow older" has largely been a proxy for "people tend to grow more conservative the more they have to lose" ; thus, the more people accumulate personal wealth, the more conservative they tend (fiscally and economically ; socially is different, but elections across the years have demonstrated time and again that people will largely vote wallet over conscience).

Thus in countries where millenials are saddled with over the top university debt, unable to begin to accumulate wealth, where what little savings you have can be wiped out at the first hint of illness, and where you are unable to build their retirement savings because a)no accumulating wealth and b)the whole structure of retirement saving has been built around the expectation of home ownership, which is no longer feasible), radicalization is to be expected. In countries with more affordable education, or a stronger social safety net (thus less pressing need to accumulate wealth for retirement), or less expectation that tie home ownership in retirement, and so forth, it's probably much easier to see yourself as having something to lose.

 

[Lexicus]

My guess is there is a political-socio block of internationally communicating people that call themselves left wing by name, thier opponents right-wing by definition, when actually they're actually drifting conservative the way people always do. Terms and definitions crafted to support the conclusion.

Skinner.jpg

Am I so out of touch? No, no, it's the data that's wrong

 

[Moriarte]

Give this another couple of decades and we'll have a real communist movement again in the Anglo countries.

Uh-huh, communists armed with iphones, plotting a new world revolution in spare time between playing games and watching youtube.

 

[Lohrenswald]

I don't know if it's that universal outside english countries or finland (looked on twitter for norway and such obviously and the lefty thing seemed to hold there too)
but like even so

Any guesses as to what’s going on here? I have a few but the reality is much of the stressors that conceivably push youth in Italy or France to the right exist in the UK.

Britain being in the english language media sphere probably helps with setting the same tone as in like america, when it might have been different otherwise

I know british newspapers are like absurdly rightist but I don't know how many millenials or whatever follow them

so uh that's the mechanism I propose

 

[Cloud_Strife]

Uh-huh, communists armed with iphones, plotting a new world revolution in spare time between playing games and watching youtube.

Not sure if you've noticed this but outside of your fantasy strawman, things are pretty bad

Hth you

 

[Farm Boy]

Skinner.jpg

Am I so out of touch? No, no, it's the data that's wrong

There's data and data and data.