That's not current Civ code, or is it?
That's the point: RNG in Civ4 is something different from standard C RNG used in example above.
That's not current Civ code, or is it?
You appear to be counting outcomes with that code? What does that have to do with anything?
...
Most of the stuff on that page is abacadabra to me, but I noticed the following quote:
"One flaw specific to LCGs is that, if used to choose points in an n-dimensional space, the points will lie on, at most, n√n!⋅m hyperplanes (Marsaglia's theorem, developed by George Marsaglia).[7] This is due to serial correlation between successive values of the sequence Xn."
Found an image of it, but like I said, this is a different mechanic at play. Felt damn nice to get one back tho
Spoiler :
What makes all these losses in a row even worse, like Anysense is touching upon, is that with supreme winning odds, we also have a higher chance to win each combat round. So to then lose a bunch of those combat rounds, the fight itself, and then another 4-5 like that, takes extreme bad luck. Or a naughty RNG perhaps.
I think this is exactly what happens. When checked over many iterations, like 10,000 or whatever, the odds comes out as correct/expected. But the RNG has a tendency for streaks of losses or wins. This becomes hidden over so many iterations, but if you attack with 7 units and lose 5 despite great winnings odds, you obviously get rather screwed. Like I said dryly above, the solution then is to have 10,000 unit stacks...What if the RNG still averaged out to be about as accurate as displayed, but winning and losing streaks over multiple combats were still a thing because of faulty code? I feel it would be hard to objectively test for such a thing, but moreover, it would negatively impact the player far more than give a benefit since until the late game, the player has less units and hammers usually so not winning enough fights hurts more than winning harder by winning more than expected.
I'm 100% sure it was a free win, but I don't know exactly how they work. The odds in-game showed something like 97,5%, which confused me rather a lot, until I realised we hadn't faced any barbs yet, so this must count as a free win. Maybe the game reports them a bit weirdly or something.Did not that pic was a free fight. It shows correct 0.1% odds and a spearman made one hit. Thought they can't do it in free win fights.