The Israeli Mistake

IceBlaZe

Atheist Proselytizer
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This is my take on the Israeli - Lebanese conflict and, hopefully, a place for me to answer as an Israeli, and as a soldier of the IDF, to questions of forum members concerning the conflict.

Browsing through some of the threads opened here concerning the conflict (there are so many, I will never get a chance to read them all), I see a lot of questions rising from people sympathizing with both sides.

To make things clear, in Israel I am considered a leftists, usually even extreme-left. For example, I am against the Israeli occupation of the west bank, the establishment of all settlements etcetera etcetera. My "idealistic" vision of the middle east in the future is a two state solution based on the 1967 cease fire lines.

One of the questions I noticed while reading here, was "How come Hizbullah is so popular in Lebanon?".

I guess the answer to this question is rather negative for Israel. The answer is that it is, mostly, Israel's fault. How come?
To make long things short, after various terror actions of Palestinian organizations residing in Lebanon, Israel decided to raise its military actions against those organizations and procede with something which could be referred to as a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. In Israel it is quite known that the invasion planned was very different from the invasion performed and mastered by minister Ariel Sharon. After the invasion and the mess it created for Israel, Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin indulged in deep depression and eventually died, bitter and alone, enclosed with himself.
As an Israeli who knows a few military men who took part in the war, I know that at least some part of the Lebanese civilians, some say even Hizbullah representatives, greeted the first entrance of Israeli troops to damage Palestinian terrorist organizations reigning Lebanon with candy and sweets. I do not know to what extent, if any, this statement is true - but if it is it shows you that things are always different but the same in the Middle East.

When Israel delayed its exit from southern Lebanon, the "Party of God", supported and established by members of the radical Iranian Islamists, decided to be the saviors of Lebanon and to act by terrorism inorder to free it from Israeli occupation. The lingering Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, which in its full manner was of 18 years length, made the Hizbullah actions, whether terrorist or militia, seem legitimate and backed with support by the Lebanese citizens.

When Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, decided to keep his promise to the Israeli public, which was very war weary, and to evacuate the Israeli troops out of Lebanon within a night and with no long term thinking, either military or diplomaty wise, Hizbullah's stature as the savior of Lebanon, and Hassan Nasrallah's (The second leader IIRC of Hizbullah, and obviously the shrewest terrorist/statesman in the ME) stature as the only Arab leader to ever bend the Israeli army and make it flee, was given its final confirmation by all parties involved, whether it was the Lebanese civilians, the Arab governments or even the Israeli public itself, which even then laid much credibility in every statement made by him.
Apart from the effect on Hizbullah, the retreat - which was not coordinated seriously with any force which could take control of Lebanese sovereignity, granted Hizbullah southern Lebanon as a gift.
Without anyone to bother them, they expanded and rooted their military posture in southern Lebanon to enormous measures, supported by Iranian army men, Syrian & Iranian funds and weaponry.
Whilst expanding the arsenal, Hizbullah built a network of bunkers, tunnels, watchposts and storage places (the majority of which under civilian appearence), which would be very very hard for any army to confront.
The Hizbullah, knowing that Israel's, as any western country, weakness is the way it chooses its targets in a war, assimilated within the villages and cities of Lebanon. An organization with military bases almost nowhere to be found, but with the strength, motivation, organization and weaponry that would honor a small country.
Besides taking advantage of the civilians, Hizbullah took advantage of the natural environment and placed its bunkers deep within natural growth of trees and bushes, very hard to locate. Those bunkers were supplied with a large amount of weaponry, food and even security measures like cameras outside the bunkers, are small military bases hidden deep within the south-Lebanese environment. Hizbullah terrorists need, appearently, a few minutes outside to bunker to launch a rocket, a minute after the launch both them and the rocket launcher are already quite safe back inside the bunker.
That kind of organization is not set to beat Israel militarily in an all out war, but knowing that the rocket attacks paralyze the northern-Israeli life and economy, it is set to wear out Israel, just like it succesfully did during the 18 years of Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.


Another opinion I noticed is that Israel "Planned" this war for a long time.
I can honestly say this statement is completely false, and has no basis in reality. Of course, the Israeli military watched the Hizbullah grow its power and collect information of its infrastructure, just like any military who has a terrorist organization residing its border would do. But if the Israelis wanted this war, why did Israel retreat from Lebanon in first place? Why did it let Hizbullah grow its power? Why did it wait for Hizbullah to act?
If Israel would launch an immediate surprise attack on Hizbullah before the incident, it would be whilst none of the Hizbullah leaders/fighters knew of it and therefore would be much more successful killing those and damaging the Hizbullah.


A subject that is now very "hot" is the Israeli destruction of UN outpost killing 4 men. As a part of the "military system" in Israel, you have my word, if it means anything, that there is no chance in hell that Israel would purposely do such a thing. Apart from my word, you can also take into consideration the following facts:
1. Israel would gain nothing (and gained nothing) from such an attack.
2. Moreover, the more actions like these occur, the larger the pressure is on Israel to stop its actions, therefor damaging its interests and decreasing its breating space for military actions inside Lebanon.
3. Kofi Annan has already took back his words that "The action appaered deliberate", after a conversation with Ehud Olmert (the Israeli PM).
4. Israel is a member nation of the UN, and has an ambassador in the UN.


Are the Israeli actions proportionate? Is Israel over-reacting?
Probably such questions will always raise a debate, as they are not only questions of fact and logic but also questions of emotion, ideology and morals.

My opinion as an Israeli, who lives in Nahariya (one of towns most severely hit by the Hizbullah rocket attacks), the answer is no.
I do not think the actions of the IDF are perfect (there are always mistakes, both in the decision making process and both in the targeting/firing process), but Israel certainly does its best to minimize civilians casualties in this equation of Civilian damage versus Element of surprise and the ability to actually damage an organization which is so deeply assimilated and rooted into the civilian life and infrastructure like the Hizbullah.

It is known that there's terrorist infrastructure inside the cities and villages, and to protect its citizens the army must destroy this infrastructure, even in the cost of civilian lives. It is deeply unfortunate that civilians in both sides pay the price of this war, but usually that is the situation in wars.
Whilst watching the news one day I saw a British reporter amazed by the fact that Hizbullah activates its rocket launchers from within the concentration of civilians, IIRC it was in Sidon. It is known that Hizbullah prevents civilians from leaving the villages and cities in which it operates in order to prevent Israeli attacks, or portray them as slaughter.

Some say that launching a war after the kidnapping of "only" two soldiers is outragous. But remember that:
a) Israel struck a deal with the Hizbullah in the first kidnapping, in 2000. It only led to another one.
b) Hizbullah always tried to "ignite" the border, usually taking advantage of circumstances and events in the Palestinian territories.
c) Hizbullah is also tied to Palestinian terror organizations and supplies them with information and weaponry.
d) Hizbullah is a part of the Lebanese parliament.
e) For six years there have been no progress or effort to implement resolution 1559, whilst Israel's retreat was recognized by the UN as full and complete. Seems like there's no true effort to protect the lives of Israeli soldiers and civilians.
f) Aside from the two soldiers kidnapped, 8 were killed IIRC.
g) Hizbullah does pose a substantial threat, even if not existential (as it wishes it to be), to Israel. Allegedly they have rockets which can reach Tel Aviv, Israel's startegic facilities, its international airport etc.

Some wonder how come the Hizbullah militia men are so "motivated" to fight Israel.
Firstly, consider the armies of many empires and dictators which fought for no pure interest but the ones of their rulers. For example, the army of Japan during WWII. Is this case so different?
Secondly, Hizbullah is full of pride of the success of its raids in the last years. I think some Hizbullah men truly believe they can "teach" Israel a lesson once again, or even destroy it by provoking a full-scale war (with Syria, or Iran, or Both).


Another one of the popular questions is - why the Hizbullah, or Nasrallah, decided taking this action?
I guess Nasrallah will never honestly answer such a question so all we can do is guess, but one of the more popular interpretations in Israel is that he gambled. He thought that Israel once again, would choose the diplomatic way and the weak military response, with a prisoner deal, like last time. He perhaps did not expect such a strong Israeli response (one Hizbullah leader even admitted Hizbullah was "surprised" by the strength and area of Israel's response).
Another explanation, which I don't think is true, is that Hizbullah was used by Iran to divert attention from its nuclear program.
Firstly, I don't think its true because I dont believe anyone knew Israel's actions would be of these proportions. Secondly, I think if Hizbullah is really such a pawn of Iran, they would probably want to keep its power in case a conflict would arise between Israel and Iran concerning the abovementioned nuclear program, and not let Israel weaken Hizbullah so deeply without any true diplomatical or military achievements. That takes Iran after a few weeks / months (in which I do not think it would make such an impressive advancement in its nuclear program), back to square 1 only this time Hizbullah is weakened, perhaps almost nonexistent, and the International community is deeply involved in Lebenon and the ties between Hizbullah, Syria and Iran.

Anyway, it's late here and I'm tired after a long week in the army, I'll be happy to answer questions and have a true debate, but please do not "flame" or "troll" in this thread.

Good night
 
Interesting point of view. I still have a few lingering questions for you:

1. How (and when) do you think this occupation will end? How much of Hezbollah do you expect to remain standing when you leave?

2. What percentage of Hezbollah's power do you attribute to each of the following: the hardware and money they possess, the people they have, the idea of Hezbollah itself.

3. How do you guys tell Hezbollah members from cilivian?

4. Do you think strategically (as opposed to morally, I want to steer clear of that flame-igniting topic) this war is a good move for Israel?
 
Anyway, it's late here and I'm tired after a long week in the army, I'll be happy to answer questions and have a true debate, but please do not "flame" or "troll" in this thread.

A good post, well informed and very even considering your homeland and military backround. I read it twice.

Welcome home Soldier :salute:

OEF 1 OIF 2+5
 
I very much appreciate your post!

It's apparent now that aside from ethnic cleansing, Israel will never achieve victory over Hezbollah. In fact, from my understanding of your point of view, this war will only serve to strengthen Hezbollah in the end.

Could you clarify this please?

What do you believe this war will accomplish for Israel?

Thanks,

Scott.
 
I got more of a " damned if we do, damned if we don't " feel from it
 
Great read and a interesting view from someone caught up in the action.

A couple of questions, firstly regarding the UN post, could they have not hit it so as to send a message that the UN isnt welcome round there as the history between the UN and Israel is rocky to say the least, and they know that only American pressure would make them stop what they are doing,so really the UN is irrelevant in there eyes?
Secondly, if Israels first invasion of Lebanon spawned Hizbollah, how can the government not see that this will only create what they are trying to get rid of? Is that your way of thinking to or did I read your first post wrong? Sorry if I did.
Thirdly what do you think of compulsory military training?
Fourthly do you think the treatment of Palestinians contributes to there actions and hatred towards Israel, and if so, why keep treating them that way?
Fifthly what do you think of a lot of tax money going towards military hardware instead of on health,education etc.
Sixthly do you believe a Nuclear Iran poses a threat to Israel directly or is it more the umbrella that they could offer to other countrys that could then attack (terrorist) under the protection of a nuclear Iran?
Seventhly do you feel that a ground invasion is the only possible way to get rid of Hizbollah rocket firings as air strikes alone dont seem to be working and if so when in your opinion would it happen?
 
IceBlaZe said:
[...]
A subject that is now very "hot" is the Israeli destruction of UN outpost killing 4 men. As a part of the "military system" in Israel, you have my word, if it means anything, that there is no chance in hell that Israel would purposely do such a thing. Apart from my word, you can also take into consideration the following facts:
1. Israel would gain nothing (and gained nothing) from such an attack.
2. Moreover, the more actions like these occur, the larger the pressure is on Israel to stop its actions, therefor damaging its interests and decreasing its breating space for military actions inside Lebanon.
3. Kofi Annan has already took back his words that "The action appaered deliberate", after a conversation with Ehud Olmert (the Israeli PM).
4. Israel is a member nation of the UN, and has an ambassador in the UN.[...]
Interesting, well motivated post. However I don't agree with all of your points, in particular the section quoted above.

Israel has targeted civilians, including UN compounds before, viz.:

The UN compound in Qana, Lebanon, was deliberately targeted and shelled by the IDF in 1996 causing the deaths of 102 civilians and 4 UN soldiers.

Wiki article

UN report s/1996/337

Dutch Netwerk video report
 
Here are some reasons why Israel doesn't have much hope of winning:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0727/p09s02-coop.html

Despite international demands for a cease-fire, and the anguished pleas of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insists that conditions need to be "right" before the US will endorse one. But the idea that time favors Israel's goal of disarming Hizbullah is dubious for five reasons:

• Hizbullah is wellprovisioned with weapons, and it is unlikely that the group could be completely disarmed. Southern Lebanon is filled with hills, valleys, and caves, not to mention villages where weapons can easily be cached. Moreover, Hizbullah enjoys widespread support in the south. The Shiite Muslims who predominate there revere Hizbullah for pressuring Israel to withdraw in 2000.

• Hizbullah precipitated the war by crossing into Israel to capture two soldiers, and many Lebanese are furious that Hizbullah provoked Israel. Israel has hoped to reinforce Lebanese alienation from Hizbullah, but Israel's prolonged and vengeful response is fostering new hatred for Israel and its US protector. Recently, an-Nahar, the respected Beirut paper and no fan of Hizbullah, featured a cartoon showing Dr. Rice trying to quell Lebanon's war fires with an eye dropper.

• An international force is no magic solution whether it deploys independently or in conjunction with the Lebanese army. Many soldiers in the army are Shiites, and they are more likely to applaud Hizbullah than to disarm it. As for the international soldiers, what will happen when Israel, with a robust record for recidivism, raids Lebanon, kidnaps or kills Lebanese, or attempts to prevent Lebanese from returning to their homes in a unilaterally imposed buffer zone? Hizbullah draws many of its members from the south. Will they be excluded from their own villages? The record of intervention in Lebanon reveals that even the well-intentioned may become part of the problem.

• For both the US and Israel, Hizbullah is an extension of Iranian influence. Yet, it is likely that Iran is going to be a major beneficiary of Israel's new war in Lebanon. To the extent the Shiites feel they were singled out for attacks, Iran will be seen as a stalwart coreligionist ally. And given the extraordinary destruction in the Shiite suburbs of Beirut, Iran will have a further entree by providing materiel assistance and financial aid.

• Support for Hizbullah is growing in the Arab world with every day that it confronts Israel. In Iraq, the parliament has spoken out forcefully against Israel's campaign, and last week Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued a powerful fatwa (religious opinion) condemning the attacks on Lebanese civilians and infrastructure and calling on all Shiite clerics to take action. Rice had to scratch Egypt off her itinerary because of swelling support for Hizbullah there. In Arab countries with a large Shiite community, sectarian sentiment is being fueled by the fighting in Lebanon.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/24/AR2006072400807.html

Military historians have a name for the logic behind Israel's military campaign in Lebanon. It's called the "strategic bombing fallacy." Almost since the dawn of the age of military air power, strategists have been tempted by the prospect that the bombing of "strategic" targets such as infrastructure and transportation hubs could inflict such pain on a population that it would turn against its leaders and get them to surrender or compromise.

Unfortunately -- as the United States itself discovered during World War II and Vietnam, to cite just two examples -- strategic bombing has almost never worked. Far from bringing about the intended softening of the opposition, bombing tends to rally people behind their own leaders and cause them to dig in against outsiders who, whatever the justification, are destroying their homeland.

The history of perennial overoptimism about air power is worth keeping in mind as we consider some of the arguments heard in Jerusalem and Washington that the Israeli bombing campaign will put Hezbollah out of business or somehow lead the Lebanese people and army to turn against it. According to retired Israeli army Col. Gal Luft, the goal of the campaign is to "create a rift between the Lebanese population and Hezbollah supporters." The message to Lebanon's elite, he said, is this: "If you want your air conditioning to work and if you want to be able to fly to Paris for shopping, you must pull your head out of the sand and take action toward shutting down Hezbollah-land."

The theory is almost as neat as those that postulated that an American show of force in Iraq would bring peace and democracy throughout the region -- but it is even less realistic. The issue is not whether Hezbollah is responsible for this crisis -- it is -- or whether Israel has the right to defend itself -- it does -- but whether this particular strategy will work. It will not.

It will not render Hezbollah powerless, because it is simply impossible to eliminate thousands of small, mobile, hidden and easily resupplied rockets via an air campaign. And it will not lead the weak Lebanese government to confront Hezbollah, because the civilian casualties caused by Israel's bombing are infuriating the Lebanese population and providing fodder for Israel's enemies throughout the Muslim world.

Perhaps recognizing that an air campaign alone might not bring about the desired effects, some have been calling on Israel to launch a ground invasion. What is less clear is why an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon now would be any more successful than the one carried out in 1982, which led to the creation of Hezbollah, a bloody 18-year occupation and, ultimately, to Israeli withdrawal. Again the strategy seems to be based more on hope than on experience.

What is striking about all this wishful thinking on Lebanon is that it is being promoted by many of the same people most closely associated with the wildly misplaced optimism about the effects of the use of force in Iraq. The theory behind that invasion was that an American show of force to remove Saddam Hussein would so impress the region's populations (and frighten its dictators) that it would produce a chain reaction of democratization all the way to Palestine. Critics who worried that Iraqis would quickly come to resent and challenge the seemingly all-powerful American occupiers -- or that outside actors such as Iran or Syria would seek to undermine Iraq's stability -- were accused of an almost un-American historical pessimism. That Iraq is now plagued with a violent insurgency and putative civil war suggests that the pessimists' arguments might have deserved a greater hearing.

Proponents of strategic bombing in Lebanon acknowledge that it is not sufficient in itself to deal with the Hezbollah threat, and they point out -- rightly -- that Iran and Syria are the real instigators of the trouble. But it is one thing to say that, and quite another to explain just how Israel and the United States are supposed to go about eliminating the Iranian and Syrian problems. Invasions or airstrikes with the purpose of installing stable, pro-Western democracies would not seem a great bet in light of recent experience.

Those calling on Israel or the United States to use force against Lebanon, Syria and Iran legitimately ask what the alternatives to decisive action are. But they asked the same question about Iraq, and they seemed to overlook the possibility that a bad situation can be made even worse.

Given the long odds against Israeli or U.S. bombing campaigns actually producing the desired effects, a more focused and sustained strategy of proportional retaliation, increased support for the Lebanese government, international pressure on Iran and incentives for Syria to end its support for Hezbollah would seem a better approach than another wild throw of the dice.


Here is the recent news about the increasing support for Hizbollah in Lebanon due to Israel's attacks:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aDBGipyREFes&refer=home

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- ``Pride stands here,'' reads a white sheet adorned with black Arabic script hanging near the ruins of Hezbollah's Beirut headquarters. ``Submission is not an option.''

That message of defiance, flying above buildings flattened by Israeli air strikes, is enhancing the standing of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, among his Shiite Muslim followers at home and Islamic radicals elsewhere.

They don't blame Nasrallah for instigating fighting that has cost 400 Lebanese lives and forced 800,000 people to flee their homes. Instead, they see him as someone who deserves credit for making Israel end its 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon while suffering personal loss -- a son's death in a 1997 attack on Israeli forces -- in the struggle.

``What sets Nasrallah apart from other Lebanese and Arab politicians is that he won a war against Israel, and he lost one of his sons in the fight,'' said Walid Charara, co-author of the book ``Hezbollah, an Islamist-Nationalist Party.'' ``This gives him credibility that Arab leaders are bereft of.''

In a sign of his standing, he's commonly called ``Sayyid,'' a title given to people believed to be descendants of Prophet Muhammad's family. In June, riots broke out to protest a political comedy show on television that impersonated him.

Public Approval

About 70 percent of Lebanese approve of Hezbollah's capture of two Israeli soldiers in the July 12 raid that sparked Israel's offensive, according to a poll of 800 people published July 26 by the Beirut Center for Research and Information.

Nasrallah, 46, has spent his 14-year career as secretary general of Hezbollah juggling his role in Lebanon with his ties to Iran, the country that funds and arms his group, and to neighboring Syria, which controlled Lebanon for 29 years and backed Hezbollah's right to arms.

Trained in local Palestinian military camps, he studied theology in Iraq's Shiite holy city of Najaf and in Iran. He rose through Hezbollah's ranks by turning guerrilla fighters into a militia to battle the Israeli occupation.

Nasrallah has stage-managed Hezbollah's move into politics, making it a key player in ruling Lebanon, where decisions are taken by a cabinet made up of representatives of the various religious strands. The group's political arm has 14 members in the 128-seat parliament.

Charities and Hospitals

He has also built a network of charities and hospitals that ensures loyalty among Shiites, the largest and poorest of the 17 communities in the Mediterranean nation of 3.8 million people.

Nasrallah's opponents say he is disregarding the interests of the Lebanese people and has turned Lebanon into a battleground in the Iranian and Syrian confrontations with the U.S.

``It's sad to see Lebanon as a toy in the game of nations and made to pay the price with the blood of its children,'' Lebanese Christian leader Samir Geagea told reporters in Beirut on July 25.

The war that started July 12 has inflicted $2 billion in damage to Lebanese airports, ports, roads and bridges. Lebanon's economic losses from the aborted summer tourism season and stalled industrial production amount to an additional $2 billion, Riad Salameh, the governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, said in an interview yesterday.

On a side-note, for people complaining about how the Iraqi PM supports Hizbollah. His political party, the Dawa Party of Iraq, has been close allies to the Lebanese Hizbollah from the very beginning:

http://www.juancole.com/

The members of Congress also don't seem to realize that the Iraqi Dawa helped to form the Lebanese Hizbullah back in the early 1980s. The Dawa was in exile in Tehran, Damascus and Beirut and it formed a shadowy terror wing called, generically, Islamic Jihad. The IJ cell of the Dawa attacked the US and French embassies in Kuwait in 1983, in an operation probably directed by the Tehran branch, which was close to Khomeini.

My understanding is that Nuri al-Maliki was the bureau chief of the Dawa cell in Damascus in the 1980s. He must have been closely involved with the Iraqi Dawa in Beirut, which in turn was intimately involved in Hizbullah. I am not saying he himself did anything wrong. I don't know what he was doing in specific, other than trying to overthrow Saddam, which was heroic. But, did they really think he was going to condemn Hizbullah and take Israel's side?

Finally, former US deputy of State, Armitage has called for an immediate ceasefire saying that Israel's actions in Lebanon were counterproductive and harmful to both the Israel and the US, "I think the President needs to rethink this. Perhaps the best way to be a friend of Israel is to tell when we think the present course is not working." He also provides a 1st hand view of the thinking prior to Israel's catastrophic first invasion of Lebanon:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19936735-601,00.html

He said Israel's response was counterproductive because Hezbollah had great cachet in southern Lebanon thanks to the social services it provided and the simple vision of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

"I think in the short term, and perhaps in the long run as well, Hezbollah is seen as empowered," he said. "The Arab streets are starting to pick this up a bit."

Mr Armitage stressed Hezbollah's role in starting the conflict and said he would like nothing more than a "500-pounder to land in the turban of Nasrallah" but he had doubts about Israel's success against a guerilla outfit hiding among civilians.

"The first lesson I remember very well was an IDF (Israeli Defence Force) officer sitting in my office when I was assistant secretary of defence, telling me not to worry (about Israel's failed invasion of Lebanon in 1982), that the Israelis knew the Lebanese; they knew them better than anyone; they knew them inside out and of course that turned out not to be the case."

Mr Armitage said the Bush administration should not close off diplomatic routes with either Syria or Iran.

"Diplomacy is not weakness," he said. "When we cut ourselves from talking to people, we cut ourselves out of all the other benefits of diplomacy.

"It's clear that Syria got out of Lebanon but her influence is still enormous and she wants that recognised.

"We need to make sure we understand Syria's views and what they see as their strategic interests and maybe if we can start that we can see our way through the violence in Lebanon.

"But by not talking to them, I think we only empower those elements that are anti-US and anti-Israeli."

He said Arabs in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, for example, were getting increasingly agitated and were at odds with the stance of their governments, which had been critical of the Hezbollah provocations that started the conflict.

"There's an irony here," Mr Armitage said. "The irony is we were so intent on providing democracy to the Middle East; and some of the countries that are not quite democratic who are actually condemning Hezbollah, like Saudi Arabia and Jordan, will have to turn to more repressive measures to keep control.

"So it's working against democracy."
 
Holy macaroni, a post from a sensible Israeli. You don't see many of those these days! :D

I think it was me that proposed that the escalation was planned and the kidnapping of the soldiers was the fraudulent casus beli. I said that because of the recent Bush/Olmert talks and because the military action has not been designed to return the soldiers, but as revenge against Hamas. Maybe it's not true that it was planned and it may be that Olmert simply wants to act the tough guy as he will be compared to Sharon. Thats the drawback with democracy - politicians use the deaths of others to get votes.

As far as the UN deaths are concerned, it's possible that Hezbollah frequently attacked Israel from close to the UN station. The IDF probably just got fed up with not being able to retaliate full-bloodiedly and decided to scare the UN out or something so they could retaliate more fiercely in future. One of the bombs landed a little closer than expected and the UN guys died. This sounds plausible to me, but it could be wrong.

Otherwise, I've nothing to add to a good analysis except that I agree to the '67 borders being a good solution for everyone and that Jerusalem should be a free city protected and managed, not by the UN or the US, but by civfanatics. We'd make a far better job of it
 
Thanks for the good read, especially the background information on the Hezbollah´s rise in Lebanon was interesting.

What would imo be interesting to discuss is:

What is Hezbollah´s motivation behind the constant provocations? Just make some plus points for their supporters or did they intend to provoce an attack by Israel? I personally think the invasion was intended (maybe to distract from the Iran issue). Do they think they are strong enough to discourage a full occupation of south Lebanon? Can they find shelter in Syria to operate from there in case of an occupation (maybe that would be too hot for Syria)?

Israels goals are clearly to drive Hezbollah out of the Lebanon. I guess south Lebanon will be occupied again (either by Israel or UN). What are the plans to prevent H. to rise again like they did during/ after the first occupation? I guess a support of the Lebanese government to make it strong enough to battle these rogue militas would be a way.
 
Mr. Blonde said:
What would imo be interesting to discuss is:

What is Hezbollah´s motivation behind the constant provocations? Just make some plus points for their supporters or did they intend to provoce an attack by Israel? .....

Hezobollah were surprised by the level of the Israeli response; they only wanted to hold a couple of soldiers to bargain for the return three of the 9,000 people held by Israel. There's a good article here; it's not a difficult read: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060725/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_hezbollah;_ylt=AhKiqYwdyk21RwgtXHQt6.Ss0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--

I don't think that the Israelis want to occupy Lenanon again.
 
nihilistic said:
Interesting point of view. I still have a few lingering questions for you:

1. How (and when) do you think this occupation will end? How much of Hezbollah do you expect to remain standing when you leave?

I think, and hope, there will not be a true occupation, but a military stronghold in startegical points of short length.
However, nothing is certain, and even in the Israeli government the debate concerning this topic arises. The Israeli military supposedly wants a large-scale ground invasion which will last two months. Some Israeli ministers do not want any of that. I hope Israel learned the lesson of its last Lebanon war, which is something like "once you are fully in, you wont be out".
It is interesting to consider what the Israeli objectives are. None of them is to completely destroy the Hizbullah - which can only be achieved by a full invasion that will, in my humble opinion, be very costly to Israel. The objectives are:
1. To push all Hizbullah militias away from the Israeli border (at least a clean area of 1 KM).
2. To return kidnapped soldiers.
3. To stop, or atleast seriously damage, the threat of rocket attacks on Israel.
Even in Israel the opinions about the chances of success for such objectives are varied, not only in the public opinion but also within different operational wings of the government. For example, the head of the Mossad thinks Hizbullah can go on for quite a long time in this manner, in contrast to the head of Israeli Intelligence in the army, who thinks Hizbullah is seriously damaged and will not be able to carry on much longer in this kind of war (constant aerial bombings and selective ground actions).

2. What percentage of Hezbollah's power do you attribute to each of the following: the hardware and money they possess, the people they have, the idea of Hezbollah itself.

Some of the attributes you selected are obviously connected. Since the idea of Hezbollah itself is Iranian to begin with, so is a lot of its hardware and money. I do not understand exactly what you mean by "people", but I can tell you that one Hizbullah's greatest strengths is that it is very enclosed, its warriors - very well trained, and it is more organized in some cases than the Israeli army itself. Israel once discovered a set of Hizbullah outposts "diaries", in which events observed by its people are written (across the Israeli-Lebanese border). It was so fully and neatly detailed, I've never saw an Israeli soldier writing like that, observing every move and every detail of Hizbullah the same way as they observed ours.
I don't think you can attribute the power of Hizbullah easily to one element - and that is what makes it such a strong terrorist organization - it posseses many qualities and it is well organized, like a small military (only much more coward).

3. How do you guys tell Hezbollah members from cilivian?

Without being one of those in the front, I can tell you it isn't easy - certainly not in the environment in which there are fightings (urban).
However, Hizbullah is usually para-military in appearence, well armed, organized. They don't look "civilian" because they must carry weaponry and ammunition. And in Lebanon, usually if you're not Lebanese military (which is easy to see) or Hizbullah, you won't be armed.

4. Do you think strategically (as opposed to morally, I want to steer clear of that flame-igniting topic) this war is a good move for Israel?

This is of course a very hard question and only fools are prophets, so I guess in the end the future will tell. But I think this war was necessary in order to restore the Israeli deterrance - a factor which is very important for a small country. Besides, it can be observed that the war brought the issue to International attention again - which is, in my opinion, very good for Israel and very bad for Hizbullah. Perhaps, with a diplomatic settlement that will include an armed international force in the border - the reign of Hizbullah in Lebanon will not be what it once was - even if it still will have support in the street.
Maybe, but that is to be really optimistic, this war will ignite the peace process again. Thing is, Syria and Iran want control of Lebanon, and Syria will fail any attempt of peace between Israel and Lebanon before there's peace between Israel and Syria. It is leverage, pure and simple.

It's apparent now that aside from ethnic cleansing, Israel will never achieve victory over Hezbollah. In fact, from my understanding of your point of view, this war will only serve to strengthen Hezbollah in the end.

Could you clarify this please?

What do you believe this war will accomplish for Israel?

Israel has no interest in ethnic cleansing in Lebanon, only the cleansing of Hizbullah from southern Lebanon. The Israeli orders for villagers to leave their home is for their own safety - it's quite simple. The suffering of refugees is indeed very sad. There are refugees in Israel too, you know. In my hometown, out of 55,000 residents, 40,000 have left to the south. I have not seen my own home for three weeks, and I sleep with my family in central Israel.

I don't think this war will strengthen Hizbullah, because I hope it will put more international focus and surveillance on what is happening in Lebanon from now on. Maybe Hizbullah's support in the street will strengthen because of the damage the Lebanese people suffer, but militarily it is weakened and internationally it is losing. In this war only two Arab countries fully support Hizbullah.

Again, concerning your question, I must tell you that the Israeli objective is not to eliminate Hizbullah (although we would be glad if that was to happen), but to return the soldiers, clear the border and damage the rocket array.

Great read and a interesting view from someone caught up in the action.

A couple of questions, firstly regarding the UN post, could they have not hit it so as to send a message that the UN isnt welcome round there as the history between the UN and Israel is rocky to say the least, and they know that only American pressure would make them stop what they are doing,so really the UN is irrelevant in there eyes?

The UN is quite irrelevant in the area. UNIFIL never did anything to stop any Hizbullah action, and videotaped the first kidnapping. However, even if Israel thinks that, it will never act to kill UN personel. I think that human error is much more reasonable, considering the fact that Hizbullah was very close to the outpost.

Secondly, if Israels first invasion of Lebanon spawned Hizbollah, how can the government not see that this will only create what they are trying to get rid of? Is that your way of thinking to or did I read your first post wrong? Sorry if I did.

Israel's actions along its short history never showed much diplomatic or long term thinking. You can say that about 1956, when Israel was brought into the war by Britain and France's own agendas. You can say that about 1967, when Israel did not know what to do with the territories occupied at all. You can say that about 1982 aswell.
I once read an interesting article, written by a former Israeli general, that Israel's thinking is very "tribal". It is always momentary and always to defend the "tribe". Even if it is not completely true, it still shows something.
This war is the same. Israel did not plan it, it was provoked by the Hizbullah.
It is a military action that has three somewhat unclear objectives that no one knows if we can truly accomplish them with the use of force alone.
However, I think (and hope) that even if that is the case, it will not make things worse in the ME.


Thirdly what do you think of compulsory military training?

I think it is necessary in a small country with a small population threatened by large armies. Perhaps its not the best thing to do, but you must do it. A professional army would not be large enough, in my opinion, to defend Israel currently. If in the future there will be peace with the countries, a true peace, and Israels only worries would be terrorism or none - then perhaps the mandatory military service will be cancelled. But that will be far from today, far in the future.

Fourthly do you think the treatment of Palestinians contributes to there actions and hatred towards Israel, and if so, why keep treating them that way?

Obviously the situation with the Palestinians does not help Israel gain popularity anywhere in the Arab world, but I will be truly shocked if that is the true cause of Hizbullah's actions.

Fifthly what do you think of a lot of tax money going towards military hardware instead of on health,education etc.

I support cutting a bit the defense budget, but after all it is circumstances and not choice. Of course I would prefer peace and a small military budget, but there's no peace.

Sixthly do you believe a Nuclear Iran poses a threat to Israel directly or is it more the umbrella that they could offer to other countrys that could then attack (terrorist) under the protection of a nuclear Iran?

Both, however the last is already taking place. Hizbullah is under support from Iran. Surely a nuclear Iran could supply terror organizations in a clearer, more obvious and more serious way. However, one should also fear a nuclear Iran for the entire middle east, and not only for Israel. Of course, Israel is a target (Although I hardly believe that the second Iran gets a nuke they will push the red button, unless Ahmedinijad is truly stupid), but a nuclear Iran will create an Islamist force that will spread its influence in the middle east without much resistance, using the methods used today (terrorism, mind washing etc), something that can lead to a war with Israel, if not with Europe/America aswell. An Iranian controlled/influenced ME means the loss of all American/European interests in the area and the complete failure of democracy. Is that what Europe wants? Is that what America wants?
Optimists say that before something like that will happen, there will be a change in Iran, a rebel, coup or something. I say - if it didn't happen for the last 30 or something years, it wouldn't happen when Iran goes nuclear.
Not so quickly.

Seventhly do you feel that a ground invasion is the only possible way to get rid of Hizbollah rocket firings as air strikes alone dont seem to be working and if so when in your opinion would it happen?

There is limited ground actions already. I don't know what will happen eventually, I hope not a full scale invasion. It's hard to assess the chances of success. I guess there is chance for a big success, but only after a very long period of fighting. Complete success? I hope yes, think not.

Interesting, well motivated post. However I don't agree with all of your points, in particular the section quoted above.

Israel has targeted civilians, including UN compounds before, viz.:

The UN compound in Qana, Lebanon, was deliberately targeted and shelled by the IDF in 1996 causing the deaths of 102 civilians and 4 UN soldiers.

I can tell you that Israel did not target the UN compound in purpose. I can't tell you why, though (and not because I don't know why). You (again) will just have to take my word for it.
 
It's good to see an Israeli who thinks for him self, and dosn't try to justify everything his country ever did, just because he happens to be from that country, as indeed many others on these boards seems to do.

As to why Hizbullah fight and why they have support, Im sure the reasons that you stated is a part of the explanation, but I think the main reason is the continuing suffering and unsatisfying conditions of the Palestinians. Many have lived in refugeecamps for decades now. In the West Bank, the settlements are consolidated behind the wall, a wall which continues to take more land from the Palestinians and give it to Israel. When sympathy for the Palestinians is so great in Europe, how great do you think it is among Arabs? Enough to fight for? Most certainly.
 
IceBlaze you need to remember a couple of things:

A: One man's terrorist is another man's freedom-fighter. Israel is illegally occupying Arab lands (West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem, Golan, Sheeba Farms), the latter of which is claimed by Lebanon. You should return these lands as acquisition of territory through war is against International Law. If someone was occupying Israel and you took up arms would you be a terrorist? I resent the criminalisation of armed separatism because that's how my country became independent - indeed the US as well (though some Americans strangely forget this). Furthermore, Israel is building illegal colonies of settlements in the West Bank, Golan and East Jerusalem. Israel is a fine one to talk to Lebanon about obey UN resolutions when it has flouted God knows how many of them.

B: It's been 6 years since political-negotiations. Don't you think this goes a long way to explaining the violence of recent years? There is a political-vacuum so you are going to get violence.

C: Your country is creating at least as many terrorists as it is killing.
 
Yeah right. Israel returned Gaza, and now they elected a terrorist organization to be their leaders in Gaza. ANd they keep attacking Israel from Gaza. You Westerners are so frickin blind to the obvious fact that it is almost unbelivable. The goal of the terror organizations in that area is the total annihilation of Israel, this is even written down and official. So if the terror organizations themselves even say that their goal is the annihilation of Israel, then who are you Europeans and Americans to say "No, its not. They just want Gaza and West-Bank back"
:rolleyes:
 
Homie said:
Yeah right. Israel returned Gaza, and now they elected a terrorist organization to be their leaders in Gaza. ANd they keep attacking Israel from Gaza. You Westerners are so frickin blind to the obvious fact that it is almost unbelivable. The goal of the terror organizations in that area is the total annihilation of Israel, this is even written down and official. So if the terror organizations themselves even say that their goal is the annihilation of Israel, then who are you Europeans and Americans to say "No, its not. They just want Gaza and West-Bank back"
:rolleyes:

Before negotiations of course all sides will stake out hardline positions but as negotiations proceed compromise becomes more likely, as in Northern Ireland. At the start of the talks Sinn Fein said they wanted a United Ireland, whereas at the end they agreed to something less. I think it will be the same with Hamas. I think you Israelis have a siege mentality which encourages you to go OTT with the exercise of military force, in the process creating more terrorists in future because of the hatred this causes. BTW the election of Hamas was no doubt helped by the failure to end the occupation of the West Bank or even start negotiations. And anyway, whether its an F16 or a suicide-bomber, the outcome is the same.

I have never in my life heard of a country (before now) carpet-bombing a country over 2 hostages. This is insanely over the top and demonstrates a kind of Zionist fascist ideology I would call Zionazism.
 
Oh shut up Homie! You can take your patronising "It's so obvious" tone and stick it.

Do you know what the stated goal was for IRA? Complete unification of Ireland. But IRA gained much support and justification due to the bad treating of Catholics in Northern Ireland. People suffered under British tyrany, and that made them fight. Once justice and fairness was introduced into Northern Ireland, IRA support dwindled until the point where only a few hardcore fundies still wanted to fight.

The same thing here. Sure their stated goal is extreme and unrealistic (Like the IRA goal) but don't fool your self into believing that Hizbullah support would continue to rise, once the living conditions of the Palestinians would become somewhat bearable. Take away peoples reason to hate you, and guess what - most of the people will stop hating on you...
 
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