The "not Romney" wave cycle

[Integral]

Last fall I had the impression that Republican candidates were running through a queue, with each one getting their turn in the "I'm-not-Romney" spotlight. Turns out, this intuition has some validity. Here are Google Search statistics for each Republican candidate:

Bachmann:


Cain:


Gingrich:


Paul:


Santorum:


Romney:


In particular, note the timing of the "waves" for Bachman, Cain, and Gingrich. Almost perfectly timed! When one falls, the next rises; when that one falls, another steps in to take its place.

No real point to this thread other than that; just thought it was an interesting set of graphs.

 

[Thedrin]

Shouldn't Perry fill that gap between Bachmann and Cain?

 

[IdiotsOpposite]

Shouldn't Perry fill that gap between Bachmann and Cain?

Who?

5chars

 

[BSmith1068]

You might find this interesting too:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...nimation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html

 

[downtown]

Looks like Romney outlasted them all though. He's going to take either MS or Alabama next week and end the race.

 

[Integral]

You might find this interesting too:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...nimation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html

Ooh, that one is nice. Ty!

 

[Miles Teg]

Looks like Romney outlasted them all though. He's going to take either MS or Alabama next week and end the race.

I'm not so sure that there's anything Romney can do to be officially recognized as the winner before the primaries end. If either Santorum or Gingrich makes a quixotic decision to keep contesting primaries, I think the media will play along, simply for the ratings and page views.

Keep in mind, Romney's already beat a half dozen or so goals that his opponents and the media have declared "must win" for him. He won Iowa (sort of), then Florida, then Pennsylvania, then Ohio, and took the majority of the delegates in a three-way race on Super Tuesday. No one at this point seriously thinks that Santorum or Gingrich can actually win, but the race is still considered "on".

 

[Antilogic]

You might find this interesting too:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...nimation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html

I'm glad they are still updating it. Looks like they are using the AP delegate numbers.

Looks like Romney outlasted them all though. He's going to take either MS or Alabama next week and end the race.

It's a tossup there between all three candidates, with Gingrich slightly favored. There's a better chance of Alabama flipping than Mississippi, but I wouldn't make a prediction like that yet.

I'm not so sure that there's anything Romney can do to be officially recognized as the winner before the primaries end. If either Santorum or Gingrich makes a quixotic decision to keep contesting primaries, I think the media will play along, simply for the ratings and page views.

Keep in mind, Romney's already beat a half dozen or so goals that his opponents and the media have declared "must win" for him. He won Iowa (sort of), then Florida, then Pennsylvania, then Ohio, and took the majority of the delegates in a three-way race on Super Tuesday. No one at this point seriously thinks that Santorum or Gingrich can actually win, but the race is still considered "on".

Pennsylvania hasn't had its primary yet, and you already got the "traditional" swing states like Iowa, Florida, and Ohio so I don't know which one you are thinking of. Romney's delegate lead is pretty overwhelming, though, and he's going to be building on it even if he "loses" states by a few points due to the state-specific proportional allocation rules.

 

[Mowque]

Romney pretty much has it in the bag at this point.

 

[Verarde]

You might find this interesting too:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...nimation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html

Very nice! I've been watching it over and over again.

Interesting graphs, Integral. With the Bachmann, Cain, and Gingrich combo, it's interesting to see how some people will jump from one candidate to another.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Poor Santorum, Google besmirched his honest name forever. I guess that's why he doesn't fit the pattern.

 

[JollyRoger]

It will be interesting to see the big "not Romney" wave that is scheduled to hit in November.

 

[Miles Teg]

Pennsylvania hasn't had its primary yet, and you already got the "traditional" swing states like Iowa, Florida, and Ohio so I don't know which one you are thinking of.

You're right, I mispoke badly. I was referring to Michigan. Which is admittedly supposed to be Romney's home turf, but was hotly contested.

Romney's delegate lead is pretty overwhelming, though, and he's going to be building on it even if he "loses" states by a few points due to the state-specific proportional allocation rules.

Very true. At this point, Romney's campaign is the only one who seems to have any idea how primaries work. Santorum and Gingrich both failed to make the ballot in Virginia, and Santorum in particular has forfeited huge numbers of delegates by not preparing full slates in advance, like the state rules require.

 

[Antilogic]

You're right, I mispoke badly. I was referring to Michigan. Which is admittedly supposed to be Romney's home turf, but was hotly contested.

It's all good, I've done worse.

I thought Michigan, as a Midwestern blue-collar state, would give advantages to Santorum as well. Romney's ties to the state are family-only, since he governed in Massachusetts. It was a complicated mess up there.

Very true. At this point, Romney's campaign is the only one who seems to have any idea how primaries work. Santorum and Gingrich both failed to make the ballot in Virginia, and Santorum in particular has forfeited huge numbers of delegates by not preparing full slates in advance, like the state rules require.

Yeah, Santorum and Gingrich should be embarrassed. To his credit, Ron Paul is milking the delegate game for all its worth, he just doesn't have enough traction with the party base to be a credible challenger to Romney (especially on militarism and some social issues).

 

[Cutlass]

Buzz on the radio today was that the big money kingmakers are not going to permit a brokered convention. So if that's true than Mittens has it, barring a really major and unexpected screwup.

 

[JollyRoger]

Wonder when Kony will catch the next non-Romney wave.

 

[NickyJ]

You might find this interesting too:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...nimation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html

Thank you for making my day!

 

[Dreadnought]

You might find this interesting too:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...nimation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html

Beautiful!

Mitt has this nomination in everything but name. I'm hoping there'll be that wave of realization that forces Newt and Rick out of the race.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

Everyone has noticed these waves, Integral, including the news media. And the wiser of them have also noticed that "not-Romney" is code for "not-Mormon."

 

[Fugitive Sisyphus]

Everyone has noticed these waves, Integral, including the news media. And the wiser of them have also noticed that "not-Romney" is code for "not-Mormon."

I don't really think the Mormon factor has much to do with it. Evangelical Christians are showing their religious objections very strangely by voting for a couple Catholics in Gingrich and Santorum.