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The "not Romney" wave cycle

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Integral, Mar 9, 2012.

  1. Integral

    Integral Can't you hear it?

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    Last fall I had the impression that Republican candidates were running through a queue, with each one getting their turn in the "I'm-not-Romney" spotlight. Turns out, this intuition has some validity. Here are Google Search statistics for each Republican candidate:

    Bachmann:


    Cain:


    Gingrich:


    Paul:


    Santorum:


    Romney:


    In particular, note the timing of the "waves" for Bachman, Cain, and Gingrich. Almost perfectly timed! When one falls, the next rises; when that one falls, another steps in to take its place.

    No real point to this thread other than that; just thought it was an interesting set of graphs. :)
     
  2. Thedrin

    Thedrin Deity

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    Shouldn't Perry fill that gap between Bachmann and Cain?
     
  3. IdiotsOpposite

    IdiotsOpposite Boom, headshot.

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    Who?

    5chars
     
  4. BSmith1068

    BSmith1068 Deity Retired Moderator

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  5. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    Looks like Romney outlasted them all though. He's going to take either MS or Alabama next week and end the race.
     
  6. Integral

    Integral Can't you hear it?

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  7. Miles Teg

    Miles Teg Nuclear Powered Mentat

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    I'm not so sure that there's anything Romney can do to be officially recognized as the winner before the primaries end. If either Santorum or Gingrich makes a quixotic decision to keep contesting primaries, I think the media will play along, simply for the ratings and page views.

    Keep in mind, Romney's already beat a half dozen or so goals that his opponents and the media have declared "must win" for him. He won Iowa (sort of), then Florida, then Pennsylvania, then Ohio, and took the majority of the delegates in a three-way race on Super Tuesday. No one at this point seriously thinks that Santorum or Gingrich can actually win, but the race is still considered "on".
     
  8. Antilogic

    Antilogic --

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    I'm glad they are still updating it. Looks like they are using the AP delegate numbers.

    It's a tossup there between all three candidates, with Gingrich slightly favored. There's a better chance of Alabama flipping than Mississippi, but I wouldn't make a prediction like that yet.

    Pennsylvania hasn't had its primary yet, and you already got the "traditional" swing states like Iowa, Florida, and Ohio so I don't know which one you are thinking of. Romney's delegate lead is pretty overwhelming, though, and he's going to be building on it even if he "loses" states by a few points due to the state-specific proportional allocation rules.
     
  9. Mowque

    Mowque Hypermodernist

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    Romney pretty much has it in the bag at this point.
     
  10. Verarde

    Verarde Pondering Wearing A Hat

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  11. Lone Wolf

    Lone Wolf Deity

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    Poor Santorum, Google besmirched his honest name forever. I guess that's why he doesn't fit the pattern.
     
  12. JollyRoger

    JollyRoger Slippin' Jimmy Supporter

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    It will be interesting to see the big "not Romney" wave that is scheduled to hit in November.
     
  13. Miles Teg

    Miles Teg Nuclear Powered Mentat

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    You're right, I mispoke badly. I was referring to Michigan. Which is admittedly supposed to be Romney's home turf, but was hotly contested.

    Very true. At this point, Romney's campaign is the only one who seems to have any idea how primaries work. Santorum and Gingrich both failed to make the ballot in Virginia, and Santorum in particular has forfeited huge numbers of delegates by not preparing full slates in advance, like the state rules require.
     
  14. Antilogic

    Antilogic --

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    It's all good, I've done worse. ;)

    I thought Michigan, as a Midwestern blue-collar state, would give advantages to Santorum as well. Romney's ties to the state are family-only, since he governed in Massachusetts. It was a complicated mess up there.

    Yeah, Santorum and Gingrich should be embarrassed. To his credit, Ron Paul is milking the delegate game for all its worth, he just doesn't have enough traction with the party base to be a credible challenger to Romney (especially on militarism and some social issues).
     
  15. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    Buzz on the radio today was that the big money kingmakers are not going to permit a brokered convention. So if that's true than Mittens has it, barring a really major and unexpected screwup.
     
  16. JollyRoger

    JollyRoger Slippin' Jimmy Supporter

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    Wonder when Kony will catch the next non-Romney wave.
     
  17. NickyJ

    NickyJ Retired Narrator

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  18. Dreadnought

    Dreadnought Deity

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  19. Neonanocyborgasm

    Neonanocyborgasm Deity

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    Everyone has noticed these waves, Integral, including the news media. And the wiser of them have also noticed that "not-Romney" is code for "not-Mormon."
     
  20. Fugitive Sisyphus

    Fugitive Sisyphus Escape Artist

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    I don't really think the Mormon factor has much to do with it. Evangelical Christians are showing their religious objections very strangely by voting for a couple Catholics in Gingrich and Santorum.
     

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