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The Off-Topic investing challenge!

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hygro, Jul 27, 2011.

  1. GoodGame

    GoodGame Red, White, & Blue, baby!

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    13,725
    I'm making over 7%, and I haven't changed my strategy since we started. I haven't even re-invested in like 8 weeks. /brag /bull market luv
     
  2. Ayatollah So

    Ayatollah So the spoof'll set you free

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    4,389
    Location:
    SE Michigan
    Suppose, just suppose, Krugman/Baker/Baldwin are right, and also suppose that the Euro leaders fail to wake and smell coffee. How hard does this hit the performance of general European stocks (non-financials)?

    Also, if I feel too exposed with shorting Euro-financials, is there some more moderate response that will hedge me against losses when Europe sneezes coughs up blood and the whole world catches cold feels sickly?

    What if you're not interested in investing - but you've got investments anyway? :p Damn 401k. Give me defined-benefit and let someone else do the damn thinking.
     
  3. Whomp

    Whomp Keep Calm and Carry On Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    18,200
    Location:
    Chicago
    If you believe Krugman then you should maintain your macro view and not worry about price in the short run. Add to your conviction when things sound good and unwind some when it looks like they'll fall off the cliff. Sometimes, shorting stocks sucks since there's no limit to the loss but it's the price of being bearish.

    I would be careful with non-financials because most of the European stocks you're trading are multi-nationals. They don't care as much about the local economy as much as the global economy. It's why the S&P 500 companies are not anything like the U.S. economy. Is it any wonder why their profits were up 8% in the first half and so was global GDP?
    If you don't want to think then just go 50% stocks/50% bonds and re-balance quarterly or annually. There hasn't been a negative 5 year rolling period over the last 61 years. Returns as low as 1% but as high as 20%. Not nearly as good as other alternatives but as you said you don't want to think about it. Also, you only have to worry about your own distribution rate and not a slew of others who might be gaming the system or actuaries who are making unrealistic return assumptions.
     
  4. Akkon888

    Akkon888 한국 사람

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    358
    Location:
    서울
    Just did some massive button-mashing on my calculator:

    Inflation Rate webpage

    From 1990-2011, there has been an annual inflation rate of 2.425% (average)

    From 1950-2011 (the duration 61 years), there has been an annual inflation rate of 3.702% (average). Throughout the 1970s inflation rates were close to 10%/year--maybe this is when that rather outlandish 20% return came from.

    Adjusted for inflation, there may be some years where you would be at a loss.

    Who am I kidding. I don't know jack about any of this... :sad:
     
  5. mrt144

    mrt144 Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2007
    Messages:
    11,121
    Location:
    Seattle

    The thing about bonds right now is that their yields are already low, their prices already high, where do you see current issues going in the next 10-20 years?
     
  6. Whomp

    Whomp Keep Calm and Carry On Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    18,200
    Location:
    Chicago
    I think intermediate term interest rates will stay around this range for a long, long, long, long...long, long, long...,did I say, long time. If I'm wrong there's always TIPs, floaters, munis (higher taxes are a lock if we simply do nothing) etc.

    Thing is with intermediate bonds (AGG as the benchmark) even during their worst stretches had they had minimal losses when rates rose.

    Here's a good picture of historical rates of return by allocation.

    Sometimes percentages are hard to grasp so sometimes I like to think of it with an analogy. Before looking at the link answer this question...

    If I offered you the Led Zeppelin approach to financial security how would you handle it?

    In scenario one, you climb 10 stairs in an average year. In a bad year, you would tumble 18 stairs. In really good years, you would climb 38 stairs.

    In scenario two, you would climb 8 stairs instead of 10 in an average year, however you would only drop 6 stairs in a bad year but gain 35 stairs in a good year.

    Which of these would appeal to you more? Some people may say that's an awful lot of stairs to fall down to average only 2 extra stairs a year. Three times as many stairs to climb when I fall but only gain 3 stairs if things are heavenly...

    There are no right answers but how, why and what timeframe one has will help them decide.

    https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp...search/article/FASTLAvoidingPortfolioPitfalls
     
  7. Akkon888

    Akkon888 한국 사람

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    358
    Location:
    서울
    For the observers:

    Code:
    Rank	              Prev	  Value	           %Chg 	 Overall%	
    1. Theige		1	$475,763.10 	-($6,840.50)	90.31%
    2. mrt121283		43	$313,296.92 	+$165,716.27 	25.32%
    3. azzaman333		2	$283,344.65 	-($5,745.00)	13.34%
    4. mclarke		40	$275,755.75 	+$87,097.87 	10.30%
    5. amadeuscfc		5	$275,123.20 	-($4,205.19)	10.05%
    6. Whomper		3	$274,728.69 	-($9,552.75)	9.89%
    7. Zelig		6	$274,656.71 	+$0.00 	        9.86%
    8. EnglishCrusader	4	$270,500.01 	-($11,400.00)	8.20%	
    9. DerrickCB		7	$263,538.73 	-($10,395.30)	5.42%
    10. akkon888		20	$260,271.23 	+$7,300.00 	4.11%
    11. AyatollahSo		10	$260,240.69 	-($5,229.96)	4.10%
    12. KMRblue1027		11	$258,112.42 	-($5,400.40)	3.24%
    13. goodgame		8	$258,044.22 	-($10,706.84)	3.22%
    14. Algeroth		14	$257,165.48 	-($5,511.10)	2.87%
    15. contre		13	$252,389.05 	-($10,420.00)	0.96%
    16. jtb112795		17	$251,071.84 	-($3,205.00)	0.43%
    17. Redbaron27		12	$250,934.99 	-($11,909.10)	0.37%
    18. mythmonster2	22	$250,930.01 	-($138.00)	0.37%	
    19. Matt0088		26	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%
    20. loppantorkel	29	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%	
    21. SRaina		31	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%
    22. bhsup		32	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%
    23. Gogf		25	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%
    24. Tkangaru		28	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%
    25. Kan_Sharuminar	30	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%	
    26. ludditeRB		27	$250,000.00 	+$0.00 	        0.00%
    27. imperialman		24	$249,934.01 	-($100.00)	-0.03%
    28. Skwink		21	$249,855.66 	-($1,278.98)	-0.06%
    29. SilurianC		23	$249,818.03 	-($681.00)	-0.07%
    30. MreThimb		15	$249,706.11 	-($12,169.74)	-0.12%
    31. TaniciusFox		34	$249,149.19 	+$1,238.35 	-0.34%
    32. IglooDude		9	$248,978.01 	-($18,156.90)	-0.41%	
    33. really		16	$246,788.04 	-($12,015.78)	-1.28%	
    34. anw			18	$245,702.02 	-($7,424.00)	-1.72%
    35. classical_hero	19	$240,462.33 	-($12,546.60)	-3.82%		
    36. Joecoolyo		35	$232,888.34 	-($7,356.63)	-6.84%	
    37. Godwynn		33	$224,709.99 	-($23,291.70)	-10.12%	
    38. Mise		36	$223,893.77 	-($7,785.78)	-10.44%	
    39. lucyduke		37	$215,094.81 	-($6,899.70)	-13.96%	
    40. Patroklos		38	$206,939.37 	-($10,082.17)	-17.22%	
    41. druidravi		39	$203,163.83 	-($3,437.51)	-18.73%	
    42. Rashiminos		41	$184,341.02 	-($2,770.66)	-26.26%	
    43. Hygro		42	$182,099.14 	-($4,212.50)	-27.16%	
    44. pob_		44	$152,576.70 	+$12,370.24 	-38.97%	
    
    It really sticks out.
     
  8. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2004
    Messages:
    28,622
    Location:
    London, UK
    lol @ mrt
     
  9. really

    really Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2005
    Messages:
    3,137
    Location:
    Éire
    I thought my move from #16 back down to #33 was a big move but

    Current Rank 2. mrt121283
    Previous day’s rank 43
    Account Value (USD) $313,296.92
    Today’s change in value +$165,716.27
    Overall% +25.32%

    wow
     
  10. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2004
    Messages:
    28,622
    Location:
    London, UK
    mclarke too!
     
  11. mrt144

    mrt144 Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2007
    Messages:
    11,121
    Location:
    Seattle
    BALLING OUTTA CONTROL.

    Greeks are the gift that keep giving. (That's a pun by the way)
     
  12. Silurian

    Silurian Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2010
    Messages:
    7,567
    Zelig has sold up?
     
  13. EnglishCrusader

    EnglishCrusader AYEEEEE

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    1,033
    Location:
    England
    I'm going down :(.
     
  14. Theige

    Theige American Baron

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2002
    Messages:
    3,935
    Location:
    New York
    I'm in for an $80k drop when the simulator figures MF out :cry:
     
  15. EnglishCrusader

    EnglishCrusader AYEEEEE

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    1,033
    Location:
    England
    Just a question, who has actually done this in real life? And how much have you made/lost?
     
  16. Whomp

    Whomp Keep Calm and Carry On Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    18,200
    Location:
    Chicago
    I started investing when I was 16 so the last 33 years I've made a bit along the way and learned a fair amount too.
     
  17. Grimz101

    Grimz101 King

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2006
    Messages:
    972
    Location:
    London, England
    It was close, I had huge margin calls. Surprised only two people are shorting banking shares.
     
  18. mrt144

    mrt144 Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2007
    Messages:
    11,121
    Location:
    Seattle
    SPY puts baby. I took profits today though.
     
  19. mrt144

    mrt144 Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2007
    Messages:
    11,121
    Location:
    Seattle
    I lost about 2k in 2009 right around March.

    Now I just buy PIMCO CEFs and Munis.
     
  20. Darkwind

    Darkwind Chieftain

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2010
    Messages:
    76
    the game is closed to registration now? cannot join late?
     

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