The POTUS decides to be a chicken, pulls out of Afghanistan

So democracy and freedom have lost, the terrorists and Taliban have won. Rather than doubling down with the rest of NATO to eradicate them once and for all, he decides to be a Moderator Action: Redacted and pull out before the job is done. As an American, I am genuinely embarrassed. Anyone else?

Moderator Action: I realize that word is not covered by the auto censor, but please don't use it in that context. This is a family friendly forum. Thank you. --LM

 

America does not have the stomach to beat the Taliban, and has not had the stomach for that sort of warfare for over a 100 years. The Taliban today is nothing more than rural Afghanis who are armed under a common cause to kick out foreign invaders. The last time we successfully conducted that type of warfare, we had to kill most of the males of fighting age like during the Philippine Insurrection. Unless you disband the UN and withdraw the US from every 20th century international treaty and commitment and convince your military to commit a genocide without mutiny/rebellion and accept the international censure that will result from it, it's impossible to win a war of occupation. I would surmise in 2021, you will run out of willing volunteers for the US Military long before you are able to kill every able bodied male in Afghanistan.

You've got better odds of the America First Caucus getting America to "return to its Anglo-Saxon traditions" and repeal the Hart-Cellar Act than winning a war in Afghanistan.

 

Clearly the Taliban have won, they have been the only organisation that has demonstrated itself capable of imposing any order on Afghanistan in living memory. It could be a bit rough for women with jobs over the next few years.

However I do not get where you are coming from with the "democracy and freedom" bit. You are not suggesting the current administration, elected with 923,592 votes in a country of 38 million, has any sort of democratic mandate?

BBC on the Taliban view:

The Taliban believe victory is theirs. Sitting over a cup of green tea, Haji Hekmat proclaims, "we have won the war and America has lost". The decision by US President Joe Biden to delay the withdrawal of remaining US forces to September, meaning they will remain in the country past the 1 May deadline agreed last year, has sparked a sharp reaction from the Taliban's political leadership. Nonetheless, momentum seems to be with the militants.

"We are ready for anything," says Haji Hekmat. "We are totally prepared for peace, and we are fully prepared for jihad." Sitting next to him, a military commander adds: "Jihad is an act of worship. Worship is something that, however much of it you do, you don't get tired."

Baryalai, a local military commander with a ferocious reputation, points down the road, "the government forces are just there by the main market, but they can't leave their bases. This territory belongs to the mujahideen".
It's a similar picture across much of Afghanistan: the government controls the cities and bigger towns, but the Taliban are encircling them, with a presence in large parts of the countryside.
The militants assert their authority through sporadic checkpoints along key roads. As Taliban members stop and question passing cars, Aamir Sahib Ajmal, the local head of the Taliban's intelligence service, tells us they're searching for people linked to the government.
"We will arrest them, and take them prisoner," he says. "Then we hand them over to our courts and they decide what will happen next."
​

Spoiler Opium production by year :

Spoiler This may also help explain why it is not working :

 

US will only return if opium production gets banned again.
Although they could just create Kurdistan and farm there. Bonus for existence of oil.

 

america is keeping a promise . That they were not there to occupy the place forever and also create bases to invest Russia and China and also control part of the global drug trade at its relevant source . Finally leading to a 10 year thing that they were better than the Soviets and they were on time as they were leaving , with their tail not between their legs . Obama , when the time was up , naturally left lraq and he actually didn't but whatever . Biden is very heroically telling he will abide and people must help him in 99 different things . And uh , did ı mention Taliban is Turkish hating bunch of dudes ?

and the 2002 drop is only because Taliban discovering America would invade them , instead of hiring and arming them as guides . They are still planting , right ?


edit : used this to write a long post .

 

There was no point in staying, the US and its allies lost that war a long time ago.

 

Not with a strong troop surge with a committed effort.

 

I agree that if they had committed enough troops to really control the countryside, and enough treasure to give Afghanistan a functioning modern economy able to deliver employment to most of the population it is conceivable that they could have turned it into a free democracy. They were never even 10% of the way towards that, it was clearly never the plan.

 

I disagree with the plan, then.

 

when the Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan and their troop numbers peaked at 105 000 , there was a calculation that they would need 500 000 . To make everybody see they were everywhere and would keep killing people and there would be nowhere to run . Let us be generous and decide that the improved tech has increased Americans 10 times in efficiency . That would be 50 000 , deployed for at least a year or two . Anyone capable of calculating the cost ?

 

They pretty much did that, and it did not work. I think 500,000 was an underestimate, and the americans did not have the brutality to do it with so few, where perhaps the USSR did.

 

so , either the tech did not give 10 times advantage , or it was too early to get that much improvement , or it is a reason which financially and morally bankrupted the American militarily . For this , of course , just of course , external forces will be blamed . Though as my rant in weird news thread today will show , we are all doomed , because US Army has decided to raise Jedis ...

 

This one? Sorry, you will have to explain it a bit more.

I personally think more could have been achieved by infrastructure investment than brutal military action, but you probably needed quite a bit of both, and there was never even close to enough of either.

 

very first requirement that you will let people be , even if at the end of day the people like have been converted into you . When you hate people enough to kill them and keep them hateable in your perception , enough to kill them there is no end .

as for the post you have linked , Americans feel abandoned they are not trolled daily . But to widen the context , you could imagine aliens have been trolling Americans , Navy claims big improvements , aliens pock and mock or whatever and ı have no particular idea on the phrase but anyhow . So , Army says they will create super soldiers who will then hunt Aliens and the assets of the Aliens on this planet . You know , just like they so gloriously did during Reagan's time . Only fitting that people claim there are at least 30 different races visiting the Earth and some would need a proper lesson or two to respect America ...

 

Afganistan seems to have been a hellhole for decades (if not centuries). Bin Laden, afaik, was a product of US intervention there to beef up resistance against the russian forces that were doing what US did later: foreign occupation (with Bin Laden also turning against them). From old reports, it seems the taliban are just another theocracy, and no one expects Afganistan to be something more than a bandit state; after all, they are virtually surrounded by either theocracies or military dictatorships. But the myth of US "nation-building" has also collapsed -and not just in Afganistan.

 

Nation building takes a minimum of 60 years. If you don't have the stay, you are a monster for starting.

 

Good. We should have left a long, long time ago.

Spoiler :

Of course even if we do leave (and it must needs be remarked that literally this person said in an official capacity as Vice President literally this same thing nearly 10 years ago) we won't actually "leave," we'll just be replacing our formal military presence with intelligence spooks and PMCs who have been historically, uh, fantastic for human rights and stable sovereign nations to which they've been deployed. So great. Looking forward to it. Hooray.

 

Well brutality did not work well in Vietnam war and even that don't reach the level of brutality of Soviets during Afghanistan. It simply did not work and caused even more problems. Soviet went so far as to target civilians in order to counter guerrilla operations and totured and executed captured enemies.

The reason why the superpowers keep failing is because they fail to find ways to cause their enemies to no longer want to fight.

 

Afghanistan is just a tragedy at this point. We shouldn't leave, and we shouldn't stay there. Now we have an Afghan government of corrupt warlords with no democratic mandate and even more extremism than before. It makes me sad every time I think about it.

 

I am not convinced. I know nothing about these things, but are they going to be able to pay blackwater or wagner group to get involved in fighting a losing war against an enemy that is willing to take and inflict casualties without the US army and air force to get them out of the mess when they bite off more than they can chew? The taliban seem very keen and quite capable of targeting such mercenaries, and their normal business model does not involve taking high casualties.