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The POTUS decides to be a chicken, pulls out of Afghanistan

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by caketastydelish, Apr 17, 2021.

  1. Drakle

    Drakle Emperor

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    Maybe it does cost Biden. But if it does happen, it's because the media is platforming a bunch of people who have been wrong for 20 years and have often been bald-faced lying to the public.

    And I think Biden would relish saying 'My admin spent trillions on American Infrastructure. My opponents want to send that money to fight an endless war, and prop up cartels of kleptocrats'. After all, when Kerry run on 'We shouldn’t be opening firehouses in Baghdad and closing them in Boston' he did very well in the Midwest, with Ohio actually voting to the Left of the nation and did incredibly well for a challenger against a sitting US President, in a good economy, with good approvals.

    I think the videos and pictures of Afghanistan will fade, and there will be far more political fights about the limited numbers of refugees he accepts. Modern American conservatives are far more scared of being 'demographically replaced' than they are interested in being the World Police.

    The polling still has people think the wars were not worth fighting



    And Americans in general are far more scared of domestic terrorism (as they rightly should), than foreign terrorism



    You are far more likely to be killed by Y'all Qaeda than Al-Qaeda
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2021
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  2. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    Can we have a sweepstake on how long it will take Tucker Carson et al. to go from "look how bad it is at the airport, Biden should be doing more to get our brave interpreters out" to their usual anti immigrant rant?
     
  3. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  4. EgonSpengler

    EgonSpengler Deity

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    Yes. I think that's all but certain. Or at least, it's so likely that it has to be part of the political calculation for the Democrats.

    That's certainly true, but if Biden runs for reelection they'll need ammo to fire at him directly. If the Taliban make a 180 and everything goes swimmingly over there the next few years, then his decision will look good in hindsight, but what are the odds of that? I agree that immigration and racism will probably be bigger issues, and if Biden steps back and the party pushes Harris, the GOP will go after her on those grounds in some way. But I was limiting my post to the effects of what's happening in Afghanistan. A more comprehensive analysis of upcoming elections should probably go into the other thread.

    As far as how near-term events in Afghanistan could influence American politics, I think the Taliban would be beyond stupid to allow Al Qaeda, or anyone like them, back into Afghanistan in any significant numbers. I don't think the Taliban gained much of anything from accommodating them the first time around, and on net, it cost them 20 years and God knows how many people. If the Taliban are smart, they'll just wait for America to move on to the next thing, which as you say, could be soon. But I don't know if the Taliban are smart. From what little I've read, they were incapable of running of country 20 years ago, and I doubt there's any reason to think anything's changed on that score. I heard someone on the radio over the weekend who (said he) was at the peace negotiations, and the Taliban representatives never once articulated a vision for the future of Afghanistan, they were only interested in their own power. It sounds like it's going to be a dumpster fire. A dumpster fire of opium, burning a trail to Western Europe. (I think the heroin in the United States mostly comes from Mexico, while Afghan heroin mostly ends up in Europe, but don't quote me on that.)
     
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  5. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Get our brave interpreters out and unload them somewhere in Uzbekistan.
     
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  6. Ramkhamhaeng

    Ramkhamhaeng Warlord

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    Maybe Europe hopes that the Taliban reduce the opium production like 2001, but don't quote me on that.



    https://news.un.org/en/story/2017/1...oduction-jumps-87-cent-record-level-un-survey

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/drug-...ds-to-all-time-high-heroin-production/5358053
     
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  7. r16

    r16 not deity

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    they are sending 2000 Afghans to Uganda . One of the guys to have died in that plane (from which two reported drug abusers fell to their deaths) was reportedly a 19 years old football player of the Afghan National Team .

    and the primary point is what will happen to those who bear arms . Those who were most unlikely to condone and actively support a coup by Donald Trump . There are already a lot of commentary about the American Embassy flying some pride flag a week or so before the fall . Or how the first three priorities of the Bidon's Pentagon were global warming , rights of non-heteros_xuals and the Trump supporting right wing terrorism or whatever . Bolder and more brazen vote stealing is expected ...

    edit : spelling
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2021
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  8. Drakle

    Drakle Emperor

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    I'm marginally optimistic. Their regime won't be good. There will probably be some fighting for a while (particularly if the CIA funds an insurgency). They will be oppressive to women, LBGT and minorities to an extent.

    But they are leaving in place parts of the existing government. They aren't trying to overrun embassies or the airfield. For a 20 year war, they are being fairly restrained. And they might let women go to school to an extent, instead of a blanket ban. After all, in some of their territories, they were operating schools with female students, just with full coverings.

    Their economy will probably transition partly to a Chinese Mining colony, as they get fully hooked into the Belt and Road. Maybe also migrant workers, for the nearby Gulf states.

    The long term with climate change however is very worrying. Afghanistan is already very dry, they are sucking their water tables dry with opium farming, and climate change is going to hit them like a hammer. They currently have a population of nearly 40 million, and projections put them on a path to 80 million. They probably can't deal with that population now, let alone later. Their fertility rate was 8 children per woman, and it has only fallen to about 4-5, the highest outside Africa. They need to push that down and prepare, or Afganistan isn't going to be sending out millions of refugees, it will be tens of millions.

     
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  9. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    Very much doubt it. If this is to be taken seriously, I think Afghanistan is in for at least another two decades of war. And the US has every incentive to prevent Afghanistan from developing peacefully, to prevent a "good example" of a country that refused to come under the US umbrella and prospered anyway.
     
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  10. Drakle

    Drakle Emperor

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    Panjshir is a nothing province, far smaller than the former Northern alliance. 173,000 people. The Taliban have control of the rest of the country, and can quickly and easily mass troops, without fearing airstrikes to crush them from every side. They now have all the former heavy equipment that they've never been able to use, and their morale is sky-high, while these guys are pretty low. I doubt they survive the year, let alone 20. They might not even fight, they might also fold as soon as the Taliban begin massing. More guerilla-style war might happen, but I kinda doubt it will be that major. Afghanistan is tired of war, and their opposition mostly wants to leave not fight. And are primarily urban, not rural. Look how easy Kabul fell. If there was a serious resistance in Kabul, they could have made it into a Stalingrad. Instead, they folded immediately without resistance.
     
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  11. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Creator

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    Aren't the taliban supposed to now have quite a few US weapons? If the previous afgan army was serious about fighting them, they'd have destroyed the heavy weapons if there was a serious threat of the enemy acquiring those. Maybe the previous afgan army largely deserted/wasn't that against the taliban.
    Just because those societies seem repugnant to most europeans/similar, it doesn't mean they themselves are of the same view. You don't see nice "self-flogging" rituals in Europe either, but they are a celebrated part of those regions great tradition.
     
  12. choxorn

    choxorn Watermelon Headcrab

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    Given how Vietnam went, how could you make that case even before the war?

    The US could probably beat any other military in a conventional war and occupy whatever other country they've decided to fight, but both this and Vietnam show that guerilla warfare works just as well against our military as it has against tons of other empires throughout history.
     
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  13. haroon

    haroon Deity

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    Did you mixed up Pasthun tradition and Shia/Shiite's ritual? Self flagellation is a Shia's ritual that perform during Ashura, it maybe observe by the Hazaras minority, but it's not a celebrated part of Afghan's tradition, it isn't even a tradition.
     
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  14. EdmundIronside

    EdmundIronside White Rabbit Object

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    Afghanistan.PNG
     
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  15. haroon

    haroon Deity

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    Tbf, Biden pulled the troop, so the "continue it"'s mark is kind a too generous, otherwise, interesting chart.
     
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  16. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    did a little reading on all this, the Taliban has assured the neighbors they wont support rebel movements or harass the Shia population (Iran's demand). ISIS in Afghanistan is actually anti-Taliban and will engage in international terrorism whereas the Taliban say they wont. Clearly the Taliban's neighbors prefer them over ISIS, one area of potential conflict is many Taliban dont support the current British drawn border with Pakistan because it cut thru Pashtun tribal lands. Thats partly why the Pakistanis have been playing nice with the Taliban.
     
  17. r16

    r16 not deity

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    ı would recommend a little wikipedia research , unless it was erased over time . Or the very Rambo lll , in which this Afghan muleteer talks of how some foreign king asked an army from the Afghans and they just sent 5 guys . You know , the 5 lions the valley is named after . Or Hollywood made that up . Or how the Soviets had multiple offensives and never made it to the end . Short of SAS leading Pakistani commandos , nothing will happen there .
     
  18. aelf

    aelf Ashen One

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    Will the Taliban really cooperate, though?

    They have a strong ideology, after all. I just can't see all elements in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan being willing to give up on militant causes like supporting the Uighurs.

    See above.

    Saudi Arabia is a strong US ally. So was Pakistan in the War on Terror era. They still supported and funded US enemies. A country being a declared friend or client state doesn't mean it behaves like one. The Taliban is likely to at least harbour militants from Xinjiang. I expect the relationship with China will be fraught.
     
  19. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    I makes it no worse really, but it does bring it home a bit.


    Afghan authorities have confirmed that a young footballer fell to his death after trying to stow away on a US military plane leaving Kabul airport.
    Zaki Anwari, 19, had played for Afghanistan's national youth team.
     
  20. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant Supporter

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