[RD] The Republican nomination

That's a mistake. He should be in the debates now, while the format favors him, and maybe skip later.
 
I think it would be a serious misstep to skip the debate. He'll look petulant. One thing Trump cannot survive is ridicule that sticks. Calling him crazy is fine. Calling him childish is not.

J
 
I think it would be a serious misstep to skip the debate. He'll look petulant. One thing Trump cannot survive is ridicule that sticks. Calling him crazy is fine. Calling him childish is not.
Trump is acting petulant all the time, it doesn't seem to hurt him.
 
At this point the only way to avoid Trump or Cruz is for the all of the other candidates but one to drop out and endorse the one remaining insider candidate. Who would probably be Rubio.
I think the reason this hasn't happened yet is that it would be, er, Rubio. That guy only looks moderate because Cruz is running! It would be a very strange election where Rubio is the moderate's choice in the GOP!!
 
Trump says he will skip the debate. He may be getting too arrogant.

It's not even arrogance. He's just a coward.

He realizes he's not getting the fawning coverage he will on some corners of the internet, so he just wants to pick up his toys and go home to his little pillow fort on Twitter(presumably complete with a "NO GIRLS ALLOWED" sign taped to it) and shoot spitballs from it.

Fox News actually made a pretty great statement: (things I'd never thought I'd say???)

“We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president — a nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.”

Now, granted, this isn't really professional on their part, either, but really, has Donald ever deserved that?

I don't know if even this will hurt him directly, but at some point you burn so many bridges that your victory is meaningless, which is why it's hilarious watching Trump talk about Cruz not being able to get along with people. Like, yeah, he's right, Cruz torpedoes everything he puts his hands on, but what evidence do we have that Trump would do any better when he hurls schoolyard insults at anyone who looks at him crooked?

EDIT: Am I the only one who actually wonders who the hell these Trump supporters really are? Let me put it this way; I have some older relatives who are not exactly "with the times", if you understand. From across the room at a family gathering on New Year's Day I heard my sixty-something uncle, who is a hardcore conservative, actually say "Yeah, Trump is a little too out there for me". That really made me wonder where the hell the 40% of people supporting Trump in these polls are.
 
Trump says he will skip the debate. He may be getting too arrogant.
I think its a brilliant move strategically. He's already in the lead, but its close. Another debate just gives Cruz a chance to embarrass him. Also, that debate is a bear-trap and he knows it. All the candidates will be trying to drag him down obviously. Ted Cruz has already shown that he can out-debate Trump and Cruz will be in desperation mode to bring Trump down somehow. Megan Kelley despises him, and she will obviously be out to embarrass him. That debate is a no-win scenario for Trump. He is very shrewd to skip it. Sure it's cowardly, but now all that anyone will be talking about is Trump skipping the debate. Once again he corners all the media attention.

Another bonus for Trump, is he will probably gain in the polls by skipping the debate. First of all, nobody cares about the other candidates, they only watch to see Trump. People aren't even going to watch the debate when they find out he's not there. So the other candidates won't be able to benefit from it. The ratings will be lower and Trump will get to mock FOX and point out how insignificant the other candidates are compared to him. It will just further the narrative that he is the man and the rest are losers. And of course the "coward" label will slide off him because his supporters will say he is "courageous" for standing up the establishment's FOX News and political correctness.

Sure, they will all take a stab at Trump's empty chair, calling him a scaredy-cat and such, but its kind of a lose-lose for them. If they spend the whole debate talking about Trump, they look pathetic, like the little dog that only barks when you aren't looking at it. Also, it just reinforces the fact that he is the man and they are a bunch of haters/losers, so they will probably just hit Trump with a one liner and move on to attacking Cruz. And If I know Trump, he will use his event as a platform to basically monitor what they are saying and mock them and rebut them anyway.

And finally, the best part (from Trump's perspective) is that with him gone, everyone is going to be attacking Cruz. With Trump gone, Cruz is going to be absolutely eviscerated, and Cruz will be totally unprepared. His whole strategy was going to be attacking Trump, now he has to come up with some last minute, Johnny-on-the-spot BS cause Trump isn't there, and it will show. I'm calling the no-show a win for Trump.
 
Fox News actually made a pretty great statement: (things I'd never thought I'd say???)

“We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president — a nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.”

Now, granted, this isn't really professional on their part, either, but really, has Donald ever deserved that?
Yeah, I really would have expected a more professional behavior from the Ayatollah or Putin.
 
Yeah, I really would have expected a more professional behavior from the Ayatollah or Putin.
FOX messed up... That statement basically ceded their moral high ground. He was looking for an excuse to skip this debate, and they gave it to him, because they childishly couldn't resist taking a shot at him. It also exposes their bias against him, which again, essentially justifies him skipping the debate.

The smart play for FOX would have been to anticipate Trumps objection and replace Megan Kelley before the debate. When they failed to do that they made it worse with the statement mocking him. They would have been better off not commenting.
 
I think its a brilliant move strategically. He's already in the lead, but its close. Another debate just gives Cruz a chance to embarrass him. Also, that debate is a bear-trap and he knows it. All the candidates will be trying to drag him down obviously. Ted Cruz has already shown that he can out-debate Trump and Cruz will be in desperation mode to bring Trump down somehow. Megan Kelley despises him, and she will obviously be out to embarrass him. That debate is a no-win scenario for Trump. He is very shrewd to skip it. Sure it's cowardly, but now all that anyone will be talking about is Trump skipping the debate. Once again he corners all the media attention.

Another bonus for Trump, is he will probably gain in the polls by skipping the debate. First of all, nobody cares about the other candidates, they only watch to see Trump. People aren't even going to watch the debate when they find out he's not there. So the other candidates won't be able to benefit from it. The ratings will be lower and Trump will get to mock FOX and point out how insignificant the other candidates are compared to him. It will just further the narrative that he is the man and the rest are losers. And of course the "coward" label will slide off him because his supporters will say he is "courageous" for standing up the establishment's FOX News and political correctness.

Sure, they will all take a stab at Trump's empty chair, calling him a scaredy-cat and such, but its kind of a lose-lose for them. If they spend the whole debate talking about Trump, they look pathetic, like the little dog that only barks when you aren't looking at it. Also, it just reinforces the fact that he is the man and they are a bunch of haters/losers, so they will probably just hit Trump with a one liner and move on to attacking Cruz. And If I know Trump, he will use his event as a platform to basically monitor what they are saying and mock them and rebut them anyway.

And finally, the best part (from Trump's perspective) is that with him gone, everyone is going to be attacking Cruz. With Trump gone, Cruz is going to be absolutely eviscerated, and Cruz will be totally unprepared. His whole strategy was going to be attacking Trump, now he has to come up with some last minute, Johnny-on-the-spot BS cause Trump isn't there, and it will show. I'm calling the no-show a win for Trump.

I think this is spot-on. Every second they spend attacking a non-present Donald Trump is a second they spend galvanizing his supporters - through Twitter, or course, because who would watch one of these things with Trump not there? He gets an unfiltered platform to speak to his followers and undecideds that are taking a look at him via the Internet, while the rest of the clowns get up on stage and do their clown dance.

It also gives Trump a freaking brilliant anti-establishment card to play on Ted Cruz if Cruz gets too far into trying to tie Trump to the establishment. "Yeah, well, I skipped that rigged establishment debate. Where's your cred, Ted?" It also means that the fire will all now be raining down on Ted Cruz. I actually take back what I said about not watching - America might get its first real look at what the consensus biggest a-hole in the country looks like when he is put under real fire. All of the candidates are going to pile on him, as are the moderators. I can only imagine that when Trump came out and said he wasn't going to attend, Ted Cruz died a little inside because he didn't think of it first.

I have to admit, a little part of me actually gained some respect for Trump after this. He's playing the game at a level far above the rest of these clowns, and he's not afraid to make bold, out-of-the-box moves when the potential payoff is there. I'm less convinced now that Trump would get slaughtered in the general. Anyone with this keen a sense of how to use the media and the moment to maximum advantage the way Trump has could be a dangerous adversary.
 
Cruz has already challenged Trump to a one-on one debate before or instead of the FOX News one. A very smart play on Cruz's part, but I doubt Trump will go for it.

Another thing about Trump standing up to FOX News, is that a lot of voters have a bad taste in their mouth towards FOX for basically hijacking the debate process and molding it into their own personal elimination tournament. Remember it was FOX that created the hated kiddie-pool format that focused everything on national polls and undermined the importance of the voters in the early States. In a way, the fact that Trump was able to create this "I am the champion" narrative is their fault because they made everything about national polls with their debate format... which all the other media outlets then followed. So its ironic that Trump is now throwing it back in their face. I think a lot of people will see Trump as getting revenge on FOX for leaning on the primary process.
 
Nah, most of his supporters will just see it as him not "playing games" and not "bowing to the system". They're not smart enough to realize that he is running to be "the man".

This is accurate but missing the point, though it fits your perspective.

How it affects Trump supporters is a non issue. As Trump points out, he could shoot someone at random and his supporters won't waver. But despite your belief that thirty some odd percent of Republicans are enough to nominate him, they actually aren't. He does have to win more support than he currently has, and this isn't going to get that done.
 
Are not the primaries FPTP*? If so, then he can get by with ~30% of the vote and win the nomination so long as the other contenders get less votes than him.

*err, I don't think there's an electoral college equivalent with primaries, but what I mean is he just has to get a plurality of votes, not an outright majority. At least I think that's how the primaries work.
 
Are not the primaries FPTP*? If so, then he can get by with ~30% of the vote and win the nomination so long as the other contenders get less votes than him.

*err, I don't think there's an electoral college equivalent with primaries, but what I mean is he just has to get a plurality of votes, not an outright majority. At least I think that's how the primaries work.

No. The convention rules say that to be nominated you must have a majority of delegates. Rules binding delegates to the outcome of their state primary vary from state to state. They are all committed for the first vote, and in most people's memories the first vote is all that is required so the convention is just a nomination party for the predetermined choice, but if no one comes in with a majority it can turn into a free for all.
 
So in other words, yeah, he actually can win with ~30% of the vote. Sure, it may cause some chaos at the convention but it's not impossible and indeed somewhat likely that it could happen if everyone else gets less votes than him.
 
Are not the primaries FPTP*? If so, then he can get by with ~30% of the vote and win the nomination so long as the other contenders get less votes than him.

*err, I don't think there's an electoral college equivalent with primaries, but what I mean is he just has to get a plurality of votes, not an outright majority. At least I think that's how the primaries work.

Up until March 14, all states will award delegates proportionally. Some do this by winner in each congressional district, others apportion by vote share where a candidate has to top 15% of the vote to get any delegates.

After March 14, all states are FPTP and award all of their delegates to the top vote-getter in the state.

More than half the states have their primaries/caucuses prior to March 14, but an awful lot of bigger states are in play after then, like CA, PA, NY, IL, FL, and NC. It's hard to see those bigger, bluer states as anything but friendlier territory for Trump as opposed to Cruz. It's also why I expect to see Jeb! use his cash advantage to limp along with Cruz and Trump at least through the end of March, even if he doesn't manage to secure many delegates early on. He might go on the theory that he becomes a legitimate 3rd option if the rest of the field is cleared away for him. I'm not sure he'd be wrong, either.

In the overall race, you have to get a clear majority (50%+1) of delegate votes on the first convention ballot to secure the nomination. If nobody does, then the delegates are free to vote for whomever they want. So yeah, overall vote share is irrelevant as long as you're getting more than the other guys after the first half of the states have had their turn.
 
So in other words, yeah, he actually can win with ~30% of the vote. Sure, it may cause some chaos at the convention but it's not impossible and indeed somewhat likely that it could happen if everyone else gets less votes than him.

That chaos at the convention can go a lot of different ways. If you have a three candidate split (with some trivial handful counts to other players) it can come down pretty easily to who drops out and who they endorse, rather than who has the most going in. That's the "kingmaker" option and is a significant possibility in this race.
 
Are not the primaries FPTP*? If so, then he can get by with ~30% of the vote and win the nomination so long as the other contenders get less votes than him.

*err, I don't think there's an electoral college equivalent with primaries, but what I mean is he just has to get a plurality of votes, not an outright majority. At least I think that's how the primaries work.
short story:

- primaries are required to bind delegates "proportionally" until March 15th. All primaries before that date are not allowed to be winner takes all, but they get to define "proportionally" by their own standards. So some are more winner takes all than others.

- after March 15th every state sets their own rules. Some, like Ohio and Florida are winner take all like an electoral system would be.

I don't think Trump could win with 30% across the board, to do so he'd have to get votes in just the right places. I think he could win with say 40% though

I hope he won't. I think he won't (seems to me, his tone is changing for the worse). But I still don't know what will happen.

Early on, everyone tried to write Trump off for various reasons. After he handled the media, many changed their tune. Now it seems most people consider him bullet proof. I think that's an overcorrection. The comment about shooting people in public, and refusing to show up to a debate; these strike me as a different category of absurdity. These aren't just politically incorrect, they are arrogant and mocking. We'll see though. I don't understand the loyalty of his supporters, or where they originate, so I can't speculate too much.
 
Trump is acting petulant all the time, it doesn't seem to hurt him.

This. Trump's opponents seem to be in denial.

Tne "anti-system" candidate skips the obligatory television debate on the main channel? It only reinforces his imagem.

Trump so far managed the amazing achivement of being the underdog despite being clearly in the lead!
The fact that the other candidates are all attacking him, and that the media appears to be against him only strenghtens his campaign, in the current political climate.

(this is the same dynamic that will eventually give a majority in the national assembly to the FN in France)

I have to admit, a little part of me actually gained some respect for Trump after this. He's playing the game at a level far above the rest of these clowns, and he's not afraid to make bold, out-of-the-box moves when the potential payoff is there. I'm less convinced now that Trump would get slaughtered in the general. Anyone with this keen a sense of how to use the media and the moment to maximum advantage the way Trump has could be a dangerous adversary.

I'm watching from abroad and may miss a lot about how american politics are done. But people are alike everywhere, and situations often similar. The only candidate I can see capable of beating Trump is Sanders. And I'm already taking for granted that he will be nominated by the republican party.
 
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