Reuters says Germany and France are discussing Eurozone split: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/us-eurozone-future-sarkozy-idUSTRE7A85VV20111109
The situation in Greece is nearing the final climax!
- Thread starter Cheetah
- Start date
If Merkozy are not careful with what they say results could be really disastrous for the Eurozone...
Winner
Diverse in Unity
I wonder what makes the French so sure they'll be part of it 
Marla_Singer
United in diversity
The article was actually more interesting than its title implied.
However, it still mixes up two things:
1/ the general concept of a two-speed Europe
2/ further integration among a leading group of countries within the Euro area.
The two-speed Europe is a reality since Britain decided to maintain itself in the European Union while rejecting the Euro. And I feel Nick Clegg's remark as kind of sillly in denying the obvious.
Further integration among a small group of countries within the euro area is actually about bringing a third speed to Europe. On monday, I've heard Jean-Marie Cavada, a member of the European parliament, talking about it. As far as what he told, this "third speed" would remain intergovernmental, and based on the own will of nations participating.
Indeed, that third speed is about more fiscal integration and budgetary coordination between countries which would want it. As it is now, there's only Germany and France which have talked seriously about it. So for instance, it wouldn't be about Ireland being forced to raise its corporate taxes against its own will. Everyone agrees such a move could only turn very ugly and counter-productive.
Last point, the idea about reducing the eurozone is something else. Indeed, many economists genuinely wonder if the current plan consisting in maintaining Greece in the euro at all costs is the most suitable for both Greece and the eurozone. An exit of Greece from the eurozone wouldn't be so easy as many assume though. As it's quite obvious Greeks already started to protect their euros in Switzerland or under their mattresses by fear to see their savings getting evaporated by a return to the drachma.
Marla_Singer
United in diversity
Yes, that's the reason why Kronic's title was ambiguous.I wonder what makes the French so sure they'll be part of it
I initially thought it was about the idea of a strong "Northern euro" and a weak "Southern euro". Such a split is refused categorically by France... as our miserable country could clearly not hold the "Southern euro" very long. As a matter of fact, the Southern euro would probably explode to a general return to national currencies faster than the time needed to print notes.
But that's clearly not what the Reuters article is about.
Well, such a model would result in a Eurozone compromising the Northern countries + France. I can see that France may not be too interested in ending up in a currency zone with Southern Europe but being alone with Germany et al. doesn't seem too promising for France either, don't you think?
Marla_Singer
United in diversity
I'm not really sure that Northern countries are really voluntary for this actually. I don't see any of Ireland, Finland or the Netherlands following such a move for more fiscal and budgetary convergence.
As a matter of fact, it's more the weak countries which may be interested to follow Germany... in some kind of a last chance to finally become virtuous? I'm thinking about Belgium, France, maybe Italy and Spain.
Talking about this, Italy and Spain actually controls better their debt than France does. We are the real weak man of Europe if you want my opinion. But as we're at the center, I guess we still matter. I don't see any other reasons frankly.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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I did mention that this was also kind of a stealth attempt at bank recapitalization...
I wonder what makes the French so sure they'll be part of it
Oh, they will... for a couple of years, tops. By then the outside-the-euro Italians and others will be crushing french exports and its and trade balance, and french economy will be so much in the crapper that they'll have to leave - effectively ending the Euro.
It's the nicest solution for the southern countries, that way we also get rid of the french. The other possibility was that they might be smart enough to push for splitting the euro with them staying in the weaker currency. @France: we in the rest of Europe don't like you (does anyone?) with your post-napoleonic delusions of grandeur, "centre of Europe" and all that crap. Focus on plaguing the germans with it see how well it turns out!
not.gonna.happen.
There is absolutely no way that the french, or the german, or any other political elites are going to give up any of their powers towards more "integration". They're all right with trying to rule over smaller countries, but the french bowing to german diplomatic goals, or the opposite? Not.gonna.happen!
So, it's about what? Empty talk! Hell will freeze over before France and Germany are having a common budget.
And didn't that turn out to be a smart decision, huh?
You and those economists you listen are slow, aren't you? All that has been obvious for years now!
It seems that after this labyrinthine journey, Papademos will indeed be the new pm. Hopefully this is a good move, and definitely it is FAR BETTER than a puppet like the one proposed previously.
The name and synthesis of the new government is to be announced in 1 hour and 18 minutes, at 10 AM local time...
The name and synthesis of the new government is to be announced in 1 hour and 18 minutes, at 10 AM local time...
EnglishEdward
Deity
Exactly.
The central banks thereby fund speculators which increases
the power of the speculators to destabilise the system.
I am happy to announce that Loukas Papademos (among other things former vice president of the European Central Bank) is the new Pm of Greece.
It is the best choice. Yesterday it was rumored that some lesser personalities would be pm, but thankfully this threat was canceled. I am even beginning to be a bit hopeful now...
Also Wikileaks released some articles on the negative impact Germany's position had on the Greek crisis, but for the moment i have not read them.
It is the best choice. Yesterday it was rumored that some lesser personalities would be pm, but thankfully this threat was canceled. I am even beginning to be a bit hopeful now...
Also Wikileaks released some articles on the negative impact Germany's position had on the Greek crisis, but for the moment i have not read them.
Papademos made his introductory statement to the nation. All seems good currently. At least in name this country went from having one of the worst governments in Europe, to one of the most sane and prestigious ones. King Otto left, again, maybe now we can expand to the north 
Because it would be in a way like choosing the person who was vice president of the labor party under Tony Blair as the PM.
Well, not really, Petsalnikos is not exactly a known clown (
) but he is no political heavyweight either. Papademos obviously is a vastly better choice, and i am happy he was chosen Also it is said that tens of mps threatened to rebel if Petsalnikos became pm.
Not sure what his views are about Fyromia (actually i like this name
) but Fyrom basically is kept alive by greek investment there. Which means that the sane move would be to invite greek investment back to Greece, this would lead far quicker to a change of fate. I do hope he does well too. Well realistically he can be no worse than what we had, given also that in theory he has the backing of four out of six parties in the Parliament.
Only the comedy leftist (in reality it is not leftist, but a pseudo-anarchist left) and the communists oppose Papademos already.
Silurian
Deity
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Greece is investing in Macedonia. The new Veropoulos near the train station in Skopje will make money for Greece. A Greek owned shopping mall with a Greek supermarket also provides an outlet for Greek agricultural and other products.
If Greece does not invest it will lose out to Turkey, Austria etc.
If Greece does not invest it will lose out to Turkey, Austria etc.
Yes,but i am referring to greek industry being moved to Bulgaria, Fyrom and Albania,due to the cheaper labor. This won't automatically translate to money being returned to Greece, while it will automatically mean heavy loss of jobs here
Singularity
Infinite Density
It's not just Greece. The western world is exporting industry and jobs while millions of youths are unemployed and locked out of the same housing market that blew up a few years ago.
It's the 1% spreading the risk and making their money move over borders while the next generation is stuck in their parents basements making molotow coctails.
Really clever.
It's the 1% spreading the risk and making their money move over borders while the next generation is stuck in their parents basements making molotow coctails.
Really clever.
Verbose
Deity
Oh, I don't know...
Compared to what? I do know that the Swedish 1970's attempts to keep the textile industry and ship-building in the country by having the profitable industries (paper and steel) subsudise them damn near crippled the country, AND it didn't work, as they still left for places like Portugal and Greece. (Which they might be leaving again.)
Of course, if a country doesn't HAVE anything but industries that can't compete on the world market, then it is in trouble. On the other hand, it won't have the means to subsidise them anyway, not on its own.
Which I presume is where some of the German, and general northern EU, fears come in, that the EU might be made to work like a buffer to allow certain national industries not to change, but go on producing things that can't compete because Germany subsidises it.
The EU has been distributing money for "structural change" for decades. That's the bunny: Structural change. Only we, and I quixotically say "we" as in we the EU, haven't been quick enough about it apparently.
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