Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by egroen, Jan 21, 2010.
The Shah had his faults, I do not want a Monarchy again (his son currently lives in the USA), but life in Iran was better under the Shah and the people enjoyed greater equality, freedom and rights. Even many of the founders of the '79 Revolution have long become disenfranchised with the regime.
Twenty years is my timeline - so many of the hard-liners are simply old and will lose power over time, even if nothing happens now.
Yes. The current regime is hostile towards anything pre-islam in Iran. They have of course failed, as we are a proud people and will never forget our heritage and culture.
The regime built a dam to flood the plain which houses Cyruss tomb, destroyed the archeological sites of Pasargad and Persepolis, and harass and intimidate those who would gather at the tomb commemorate the International Day of Cyrus the Great.
The clerics refer to Cyrus as a "homosexual jew-lover" and when bones were discovered in his masoleum dismissed them as "bones of a dog".
The regime is demanding Cyrus the Great's cylinder from Britain, which is one of the first formal declarations of human rights recorded -- there is no doubt in my mind they wish to destroy it, and thus far the British museum has refused to loan it to them.
The current regime even felt threatened by a cartoon-based movie about caricatured Persians invading Greece 2500 years ago. I guess they were happy, cause they found a reason to criticise an American movie...
All the Iranians I've ever met have been reasonable, sane people who share most of my values and who would prefer a government with less idiots.
And Iran has a really fascinating history that they should be proud about. Only thing that irks me is that the country is now named Iran and not Persia, but whatever.
I have no doubt that Iran and (most of) the west will get along fine and without any serious problems. Of course, Iran will be more religiously conservative than many people in the western world would agree with, so there will probably be complaints from time to time. But we already manage to be on good terms with both Saudi Arabia, the US (even though they execute people), China and others, so Iran shouldn't be a big problem.
Hmm. I'm not sure if that is correct, but a quick search of my memory didn't produce enough hard evidence, so I'll concede that point for now.
I'm very surprised by this, I thought they tried to associate themselves with the Persian Empire.
I hope they don't destroy to much history before they join it.
The Shah did... which also partly explains the regime's hostility to it.
Very partly. Islamic regimes generally do not look favourable upon pagan ones.
Really? And there was no secret police ofcourse either in those glorious days... The shah's regime was a de facto dictatorship and the Islamic revolution was not, let's say, entirely unexpected. Personally I prefer freedom over any dictatorship, but that's just me ofcourse. (I'm not saying the current regime is that much of an improvement, but that's beside the point.)
Perfection will not be found overnight, nor ever.
The people protesting want a secular democracy.... and it may still take decades to get there. Isolation has not helped Iran.
Mir Hossein Mousavis recent 5-point statement:
In addition, 5 of the movements expatriate intellectual leaders have added 10 more demands:
How much inspiration does the movement draw from the Tudeh Party and liberal figures like Mehdi Barzgan? Do you see parallels with the Constitutional Revolution, and the 1979 Revolution?
I lot of parties stand to gain from an overthrow of the current regime, and no doubt several will try and get a piece of the pie. Ideally, a secular democracy will give all a voice, though I am guilty of thinking idealistically. I believe the Tudeh party is currently banned in Iran and in exile.
A founder of the 79 revolution, Bazargan quickly became disillusioned - just to share:
The government has created an atmosphere of terror, fear, revenge and national disintegration. ... What has the ruling elite done in nearly four years, besides bringing death and destruction, packing the prisons and the cemeteries in every city, creating long queues, shortages, high prices, unemployment, poverty, homeless people, repetitious slogans and a dark future
The greatest threat to Islam in Iran since the revolution has been the experience of living under the Islamic Republic!
Iranians certainly know how to protest and succeed in a revolution, and in all these successful revolts, martyrdom has played a key role in not only keeping the movement going, but snowballing and gaining support.
In the past few weeks, many prominent Iranians have disassociated themselves from the regime - universities have expressed outrage demanding the removal of the Basij from their campuses, release of students and an apology. This has all happened before.
The Shah's guard ultimately abandoned him, the same needs to happen for this to be successful.
Problem is, the Revolutionary Guard is amongst the wealthiest class in Iran - and they are essentially a mafia -- but they are not going to back a losing cause.
Oh, and to add to that:
In December, the Iranian consul in Norway, Mohammed Reza Heydari, has defected, saying he refuses to support a regime that kills and tortures its own people and denies them the right to a free election. He is currently applying for asylum in Norway for himself and his family, and the Norwegian Security Service is paying attention, as there are fears he or his family may be hurt.
He's also saying that he knows of lots of other Iranian diplomats that are planning to do the same, and urges them to quit soon.
The Iranian government of course doesn't accept this at all. They are going through all the usual stages: saying his resignation isn't accepted (and thus he still works there), claiming to the media that he has already changed his mind, confiscating his passport, threatening him, confiscating his property in Iran, having the Basij Militia visit his family members in Iran, and promising that if he comes back to Iran and denies that he has defected, then he will not be hurt...
I believe around 30 of Iran's foreign diplomats have already done this very thing.
Better than Iraq. There is alot more to work with in the form of decent and competent leadership still alive in Iran than there was in Iraq.
Basket's idea that we should not invade until the situation is hopeless for the Iranians is a bad idea. It means that when we do invade, like Iraq, there will be little in the form of educated reformists with which to build a new government.
We should strike while the democratic heart of Iran still beats. Waiting for it to die before we act only makes change that much more difficult.
Do you even consider the "remote" possibility that the Iranian people may all get behind their current leaders if a foreign power invades? Especially one that has a bad history with meddling with Iranian affairs?
Yeah, sure. Just like the people of Iraq were going to rally around Saddam and fight to the last drop of blood.
Spare me the myth.
No one can predict the future, but I seriously doubt this would go better than Iraq. i'd also like to hear an opinion from Pat, MB, etc on how the war would go (not the reconstruction), because to my ignorant military mind, it seems that Iran is in every way imaginable a harder prospect than Iraq was
Good point. We actually didn't see a lot of that in Iraq.
Then again, they didn't really welcome you with flowers and open arm either, did they?
It would be interesting to hear what an Iranian actually thinks about it though.
Iran fought a greater Iraqi army that was backed by the West to a stalemate.
But the people were behind it.
I am very divided on this, and do not pretend to have the answers.
Ideally, the people will succeed on their own (no matter how long), with no foreign intervention.
The regime is using every available source (and they control all the media in Iran) to blame this on the US, Britain and Israel.
For instance, Neda, the young woman whose death is shown in my video in the OP -- she was shot by a Basij militia member on a motor bike.... and has become a martyr for the movement. The regime initially offered her mother a position to head a scholarship fund in Neda's name -- if only she stated it was the CIA that killed her daughter. She told the to F* off. They also tried to influence the doctor who was there and tried to save her life. He has since fled the country.
The regime denied her a proper funeral and have arrested her mourners. The Basij desecrated her gravestone and fired bullets into the portrait at her grave.
They would like nothing less than to pin all this on the evil west... and so far it has not been taken seriously by the protesters.
Can the West aid by supplying arms to the movement? Part of me yearns for this, but part of me fears it. They are currently armed with nothing but stones.
A full-out invasion Iraq style may or may not be welcomed by the people -- I personally think it would not. Let them try internally first and foremost.
Separate names with a comma.